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Nintendo Raises Forecasts on Wii, DS; Shares Surge
- Thread starter marc^o^
- Start date
tetrisgrammaton
Member
i thought this thread was about stock prices :\
Wii Sports Resort is said to be better than Wii Sports and it will be bundled with a great peripheral: expect sales to be better. More importantly M+ will also be sold separately. And Nintendo may very well include it with new wii consoles. You are clearly underestimating its penetration potential.Neo C. said:If the past is any indication, I doubt we will see many bundles. Though I won't be sad if Nintendo surprises me with bundles.
I have yet to see the price tag. I expect it will be more expensive than Wii Sports (in Japan, of course).marc^o^ said:
Here are some simple maths:marc^o^ said:
WSR has a release date in the first quarter of 2009. By the end of this fiscal year, Wii will have a userbase of 45 to 50 Million. So you need to sell an awful amount of M+ just to match this userbase, and don't forget that you need at least two of them for multiplayer. If the M+ was released in the first year, then maybe it could get an extremely high penetration, but the M+ is an third year add-on.
Some funny maths: Even if WSR sells 1 Million on average every month, you will only have 12 Million every year and around 50 Million after four year (that would make a six to seven year cycle). Of course sales won't look like anything like that, I assume it will sell massively in the first month and then reasonable high because it will probably have legs. How many games sell more than 20 Million world wide? So how do you think it's reasonable to assume a penetration of 70%?
Which leads me to the following point:
If the past is any indication, I doubt it will cost less than 20$.marc^o^ said:
I know controllers normally sell greatly because you need them for multiplayer. However I doubt M+ will sell as strong, mainly because most games won't make it a mandatory.
I mean, I only had one rumble pack (bundled with Starfox64), and I'm pretty sure it didn't have a 70% penetration either.
If the past is any indication, I highly doubt it (except some temporary bundles).marc^o^ said:
milanbaros
Member?
If Nintendo wanted to they could get very high M+ penetration by bundling it with the console in a WSR bundle and releasing the original Wii Sports separately. That would ensure 100% of new consoles from release.
Don't think it'll happen though.
Don't think it'll happen though.
Starchasing
Member
Neo C. said:
Iwata said it was going to be cheaper than expected because they are going to sell them at cost.
http://kotaku.com/5032673/iwata-wii-motion-plus-will-be-cheap
marc^o^ said:
Well, looking at the past is not the problem. Not looking far enough in the past is and drawing linear projections is. Analysts said "PS1 and PS2 were the leaders, and Nintendo's hardware sales have been on a decline with each new system, so we expect the PS3 to lead and the Wii to be at the bottom.", which isn't professional at all. It ignores history, it ignores strategy, and it stands on the naive belief that business evolves on a linear basis, and that everything can be predicted with numbers alone. Business isn't one huge graph with an ever-ascending line for one company and an ever-descending for the other, especially in the video game market where everything resets with each generation.
It's probably already been mentioned, but wasn't the Zapper bundled with REUC in Japan? How about Ghost Squad? I don't see why the same won't happen with Motion+.Neo C. said:If the past is any indication, I doubt we will see many bundles. Though I won't be sad if Nintendo surprises me with bundles.
Tylahedras
Banned
Someone should have been working for Sony.
That's fine and all, though we still don't know how expensive the tech (or rather the license) is. I want to avoid disappointment, so scepticism still remains. And to be fair: 20$ is just the generally lowest price for peripheral equipments.Starchasing said:
Looking at the past isn't the matter, as Kilrogg mentioned. After all, I'm historian.Marc said:
You just need to find reasonable conclusions. The reason why a lot of analysts are wrong this time is because they overestimated several things and underestimated other things. But there are still parameters where you can rely. For example, the hardware output is determined on a lot of components, so you can easily explain why there are shortages for such a long time.
That's why I made some simple maths. You can easily see why it's so difficult to get an high adoption rate when you release the M+ on the third year.
If you can tell me how they can sell so many WSR copies and M+, so that you will have an 70% adoption rate, then feel free and explain.
Basically because I think the Wiimote and the Nunchuck are just fine. Don't you think most of the games will be fine with the current setup? If you say the adoption should be like 70%, the conclusion would be that the current setup is broken.Marc said:
Not surprising, given that Crossbow Training came quite late in Japan. That said, the adoption rate of the Zapper isn't incredibly high, even when the Zapper itself isn't really expensive (at least in the US, Europe is a different story) and the support is reasonable (some Lightgun shooters, some FPS).Ydahs said:
Neo C., now I get why you underestimate M+ penetration and 3rd party support: it is because you underestimate the device itself! Comparingi it to a rumble pack, then to the wii zapper... Not seing how much of a difference it will make compared to accelerometers... You should watch the latest middleware video to see how much different games will play thanks to this add-on. Besides you saw Wii Sports Resort was almost completed at E3. Nintendo could have released it for Christmas but they are taking extra time to produce enough M+ devices. The launch will be huge. They are aiming for making it a standard, and it's easy to understand why.
I think the closest comparison would be with Sony adding two analog sticks to the PSX controller 2/3 years into the lifecycle.marc^o^ said:
The timeframe, the developer incentive, the marketshare expansion... all fairly close to the M+ situation. And what happened? Plenty of developers supported it, but almost always in ways that were mappable to the d-pad, ways that didn't influence gameplay. The only notable exception that comes to mind is Ape Escape, though I'm sure there's a few others.
I'm not saying the M+ situation will be that bad, but I'm having trouble seeing any element that could make M+ support dramatically better.
Whatever one thinks about the M+ (and I AM excited to play with it, for the record), in the end, we'll have to wait and see. There are a lot of positive signs (EA praising it, Red Steel 2 using it, High Voltage wanting to work with it, the fact that it's bundled with a Wii Sports installment, Nintendo hinted at the possibility of bundling it with the console...), but so far, they're just that: signs.
The balance board managed to garner some support from the get-go, despite being a costly accessory, so it's not silly to be optimistic about this new add-on, but we can't be sure of anything at this point.
The balance board managed to garner some support from the get-go, despite being a costly accessory, so it's not silly to be optimistic about this new add-on, but we can't be sure of anything at this point.
ViperVisor
Member
marc^o^ said:
I have thought that devs could just have it auto dumb down the game if it is not attached.
Might suck for them but It could pass.
Hahaha, no. The penetration itself doesn't have anything to do what I think about the device. You have yet to draw the business plan how you can get 70% adoption rate by releasing it in the third year. The reason you didn't answer me this question should be obvious.marc^o^ said:
Again, it has nothing to do with the potential because I'm pretty sure that it will be mandatory in the next gen. More over, I clearly show that the circumstances make your assumption of having a ridiculous adoption rate difficult.marc^o^ said:
Let's look it this way: I love the touchscreen of the DS, I like waggle and pointing. However, that doesn't mean every DS game needs touchscreen function, or every Wii game needs waggle and pointing (to demand such a thing is rather fanboy warz). Some games might be better with M+, though I don't see why the majority of the games should need the device. That said, I can see developers adding some funny features as a selling point.marc^o^ said:
Bookmarked for future reference. You don't share the same vision than mine. Fine. Just know I've been right about most Nintendo predictions these last 3 years. Nintndo will need 50 million M+ units in 2009. If they can produce that many, they'll sell it, 3rd year or not (i can't see the difference it makes in wii's situation).Neo C. said:Hahaha, no. The penetration itself doesn't have anything to do what I think about the device. You have yet to draw the business plan how you can get 70% adoption rate by releasing it in the third year. The reason you didn't answer me this question should be obvious.
Again, it has nothing to do with the potential because I'm pretty sure that it will be mandatory in the next gen. More over, I clearly show that the circumstances make your assumption of having a ridiculous adoption rate difficult.
Let's look it this way: I love the touchscreen of the DS, I like waggle and pointing. However, that doesn't mean every DS game needs touchscreen function, or every Wii game needs waggle and pointing (to demand such a thing is rather fanboy warz). Some games might be better with M+, though I don't see why the majority of the games should need the device. That said, I can see developers adding some funny features as a selling point.
As I said before, it's the production volume which makes it difficult, as you need to produce an insane volume in a relatively short time. Even if it sells as well as you assume, it will still be very hard to reach your assumed adoption rate because there will be shortages.marc^o^ said:
I don't mind when you bookmark it, I would love to see some crazy sales happening in the future, though I'm not sure if I ever see a company producing fucking 50 million units of a device in just one year.
Yes that's a big industrial challenge, and we know nothing of the factories capabities for this device. But the demand will be here, and it appears by their declarations 3rd parties won't wait and see this time. This is the Revolution Nintendo promised, with a strong userbase to be worth the risk/investments in brand new control inputs.
OT:
To Threi, Eteric Rice, Black-Wind and Andrex: sorry guys, apparently my little new thread didn't work out so well. I think it's forever gone in the depths of NeoGAF now :lol.... Oh well, some people sounded like they hadn't even read the whole post anyway, and I'm glad I could come up with that post anyway, on a personal level.
To Threi, Eteric Rice, Black-Wind and Andrex: sorry guys, apparently my little new thread didn't work out so well. I think it's forever gone in the depths of NeoGAF now :lol...
. Oh well, some people sounded like they hadn't even read the whole post anyway, and I'm glad I could come up with that post anyway, on a personal level.eh.Kilrogg said:OT:
To Threi, Eteric Rice, Black-Wind and Andrex: sorry guys, apparently my little new thread didn't work out so well. I think it's forever gone in the depths of NeoGAF now :lol...
Just copy-pasta into an argument whenever necessary. Nobody will know
Nuclear Muffin
Banned
Well the Wii Balance Board is getting some good support so far and Motion + is bound to have a far higher penetration rate.
I think that the Motion + % rate should be high enough for most games to at least support it by 2009 Q4, with most games requiring it by Q2-Q3 2010 (If Nintendo start packaging it with all new Wiimotes and Wiis and maybe with other games)
I think that the Motion + % rate should be high enough for most games to at least support it by 2009 Q4, with most games requiring it by Q2-Q3 2010 (If Nintendo start packaging it with all new Wiimotes and Wiis and maybe with other games)
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
I expect Motion plus to be bundled with all new systems, all new controllers and a game. Yes, many people won't pick it up but it's not a necessity for their aims. Casuals will be happy just with waggle, this is aimed at all types of 'cores'. Softcore, hardcore, hardly core and everything in between. Get enough of the 'cores' to buy the game and pick it up as an accessory and you'll have no problem with the penetration you'll need. The wii fit board has less penetration but it makes sense for a certain consumer. And it won't be mandatory. But by catering to a specific demographic, motion plus will hit and make sense for a lot of 3rd parties. Sports games, action games, ect.