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llien · Nov 20, 2017

A bit of context: the only possible coalition after German parliamentary elections 2017 was:
CDU-CSU - Merkel's centrist party (and their Bavarian allies, CSU)
FDP - liberal democrats
Green party - well, you'll guess it

Not in talks, but major player:
SPD, Left-centrist.

Parties that never been in power:
AfD - "alternative for Germany" is German alt-right
Linke - very left guys, founded by East German communists. Never ever had been in power (at Federal level). Not as unlikely to become part of any coalition as AfD, but still quite unrealistic.

(Previous coalition was formed by major rivals, CDU and SPD and the latter's voters weren't happy about it.)

Free Democrats (FDP) have just pulled out.of the talks. It is not possible to form coalition without them.
Polls show that Green is the only party poised to get more votes in possible snap elections.

What happens next is unclear, but Mrs Merkel is due to meet President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who has the power to call snap elections.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42047532

UPDATE: my impressions are that the refugees subject was the reason for FDP to leave. The party was strongly against letting "family re-union" type of refugees in. But take it with a grain of salt.

Rocket Number 22 · Nov 20, 2017

Merkel out please.

snausagesUK · Nov 20, 2017

Isn't AfD more of a German UKIP?

I'm not clear on what alt-right means but I figured it was Nazis who like memes.

llien · Nov 20, 2017

snausagesUK said:
Isn't AfD more of a German UKIP?.

My understanding is that for UKIP anti EU sentiment is the main topic.
But AfD is very mildly euroskeptic.

AfDs platform is German nationalism, creeping into "traditional values" so you have:
1) Strong opposition to immigration
2) Strongly anti-islam
3) Against same sex marriage (although don't mind "civil unions") and against child adoption by same sex partners
4) Climate change denial
5) Pro conscription

Basically, if you'd ask "how would nazi party position in today's Germany", I can't a case when it wouldn't match what AfD is for.
After success on the recent parliamentary election, they tried to tone down on controversial statements and even distance themselves from far far right Pegida.

TTOOLL · Nov 20, 2017

I don't know much about German politics but Merkel's immigration policy is terrible and will eventually fail. People will just stop supporting it, and it seems they are already doing it.

Breakage · Nov 20, 2017

TTOOLL said:
I don't know much about German politics but Merkel's immigration policy is terrible and will eventually fail. People will just stop supporting it, and it seems they are already doing it.

Yeah. When people's concerns about uncontrolled immigration and its societal changes are repeatedly dismissed as simply racism, you can't be surprised when those people refuse to vote for more of the same. I really think that's why Brexit happened too.

llien · Nov 20, 2017

Mass immigration is over, for multiple reasons, for starters, there aren't that many refugees available to allow mass influx. Merkel has also backpedaled on it a bit.

Xenobureido · Nov 20, 2017

Interesting development for sure. The press is celebrating, all that 'drama' to report on 24/7. Because that's what matters: Turning politics into entertainment.

I'm in the 'cannot get worse' camp regarding a new election. Hopefully CDU and CSU keep losing votes. If the AfD wins some more, there might be enough votes for SPD, Linke and Grüne. Would certainly be the best outcome.

Anything but Groko.

YourMaster · Nov 20, 2017

Yeah, it's a shame there is no somewhat decent party in Germany. So I don't see what any new elections bring.

They'll never do it, but they should just try to form a coalition between Merkel, AfD and FdP. Merkel is already an anti-gay biggot, so she should feel right at home there with AfD. Biggest party and two biggest winners of the election, makes sense. Whatever positions are unacceptable to the other parties they don't have to bring on board. Helping refugees can even go outside of the country as you can save 5 times the people for the same price.

Dunki · Nov 20, 2017

llien said:
Mass immigration is over, for multiple reasons, for starters, there aren't that many refugees available to allow mass influx. Merkel has also backpedaled on it a bit.

WHAT? No it is not over. EU only pays fishy Countries like Turkey over 6 Billion Euro so they can keep them out. There are still coming tons of people to Europe but since they are being prevented by these poor countries like Greece you wont see them as much in Germany anymore. Problem has not changed at all.

Also People here in Germany would be much less hostile against immigration if the ones who do not deserve to be here be it because of crimes or. That they had no right for refugee status to begin with could be actually deported.

As for the news: I always thought it would not work because of the green party (left) and not because of the FDP. And now I heard that suddenly the democrats are now open for talks since everyone is fearing what a reelection could bring.

Most likely raise of FDP and AFD but who knows. All in all this shitshow is such a joke.e of crimes or that they had no right for refugee status to begin with could be actually deported.

llien · Nov 20, 2017

I always thought generic "I don't want too many people of not my kind" (well, quite natural feeling from Darwin's evolution theory perspective) was behind it. Being more picky about this and that would not turn massive immigration of about a million into something hardly noticeable.

Now, while there surely are new immigrants trying to get to Germany in particular, their numbers are dozen times smaller than when Merkel decided to let them in en mass. And, I am not sure what the alternative to that could be back then, to be honest.

aaronsan · Nov 20, 2017

llien said:
I always thought generic "I don't want too many people of not my kind" (well, quite natural feeling from Darwin's evolution theory perspective) was behind it. Being more picky about this and that would not turn massive immigration of about a million into something hardly noticeable.

Now, while there surely are new immigrants trying to get to Germany in particular, their numbers are dozen times smaller than when Merkel decided to let them in en mass. And, I am not sure what the alternative to that could be back then, to be honest.

That is behind it but it hurts their feelings when you mention it. I'm sure the can of worms is already open but I won't add more to help it out.

They have many alternatives. All cruel and impractical, all with junk analysis to support it. I'd add something here about taking responsibility for foreign policy actions but I'm American, and therefore live in the glassiest of glass houses on that one.

Dunki · Nov 20, 2017

aaronsan said:
That is behind it but it hurts their feelings when you mention it. I'm sure the can of worms is already open but I won't add more to help it out.

They have many alternatives. All cruel and impractical, all with junk analysis to support it. I'd add something here about taking responsibility for foreign policy actions but I'm American, and therefore live in the glassiest of glass houses on that one.

You make it seem pretty easy. Germans do not have a problem with immigrants they have a huge problem however when these people do not want to integrate and accept our laws. We already made a big mistake in the 60s will all the workers who came here and then lived in parallel worlds even with their own justice system. If you have 30 minutes you could watch a 2015 docu how the Islam already then became a huge problem.

And yes Germany has changed and not for the better. Example education. We are now dead last in Europe and with some schools who are have up to 80 to 90% migrants who barely speak German then of course it will lead to huge problems. It also has become more dangerous Example New Years Eve in Cologne which was very eye opening for many people.

And the biggest Problem is that we can not deport the "trash" who does not want to integrate, and who do not care about our laws etc.

But anyway: This was aired by a left/neutral TV station back in 2015 and you really should watch while Germans right now are very anti immigration. And how many problems we have to solve to make this happen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVWAIKoatWM

Breakage · Nov 20, 2017

Dunki said:
But anyway: This was aired by a left/neutral TV station back in 2015 and you really should watch while Germans right now are very anti immigration. And how many problems we have to solve to make this happen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVWAIKoatWM

Doc looks interesting. I'll check it out.

michaelius · Nov 20, 2017

llien said:
Now, while there surely are new immigrants trying to get to Germany in particular, their numbers are dozen times smaller than when Merkel decided to let them in en mass. And, I am not sure what the alternative to that could be back then, to be honest.

Supporting Hungary and protecting EU borders while supporting refugees that were in refugee camps in middle east and talking whole families from there.

Instead Merkel encouraged illegal immigration of strongest ones who could make the risky trip.

Sakura · Nov 21, 2017

Why do they need a coalition?
In Canada we have minority governments. Is that not a thing in Germany?

Dunki · Nov 21, 2017

Sakura said:
Why do they need a coalition?
In Canada we have minority governments. Is that not a thing in Germany?

Yes it is a thing but to make new laws etc. you need a 2/3 majority. So this an cause tons of problems. So it would be complete hold for these years.

llien · Nov 21, 2017

OK, it's official now, Merkel asked the President (which has very little power, except in situations like this) and is pushing for new vote.

Frank-Walter Steinmeier urged parties to make compromises for Germany's "well-being", amid a situation he said was unprecedented.

If talks fail, he can propose up to 2 or 3 chancellor candidates, if they don't get support of 50% + 1 vote, there will be new elections.

Note that it would be the first time in post nazi Germany, that this happened.

If you are wondering, why it had not happened before: up until two decades ago, there were only 3 parties: union of CDU and CSU, SPD and FDP.

Sakura said:
Why do they need a coalition?
In Canada we have minority governments. Is that not a thing in Germany?

It is technically possible, but Merkel said no.

michaelius said:
Supporting Hungary and protecting EU borders while supporting refugees that were in refugee camps in middle east and talking whole families from there.

Instead Merkel encouraged illegal immigration of strongest ones who could make the risky trip.

Hundreds of thousands were in EU already. I agree that Merkel's decision has encouraged more to come, but there were people with no status who would not simply evaporate.

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