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ColdPizza
Banned
(03-23-2017, 05:05 PM)

Originally Posted by kiunchbb

It is really hard to time the crash, every quarter someone predicted a crash and yet it been going up every year. May be Obama just did fine job of building our economy.

If I have to make a bet, the crash will probably happen 1 or 2 years after the tax cut and deregulation actually happened.

Anyone remember what stocks performs relatively well during the previous crash? Wasn't it McDonald, Walmart, and a few food companies?

in the meantime i'll be building up my savings to invest when that happens
Maybesew
Member
(03-23-2017, 06:45 PM)
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Originally Posted by kiunchbb

It is really hard to time the crash, every quarter someone predicted a crash and yet it been going up every year. May be Obama just did fine job of building our economy.

If I have to make a bet, the crash will probably happen 1 or 2 years after the tax cut and deregulation actually happened.

Anyone remember what stocks performs relatively well during the previous crash? Wasn't it McDonald, Walmart, and a few food companies?

depends on what you mean by relatively well. everything got whacked hard

edit: looking back at a chart WMT actually did reasonable, MCD got slammed but came back too
Last edited by Maybesew; 03-23-2017 at 06:48 PM.
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
(03-24-2017, 03:28 AM)
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Originally Posted by kiunchbb

It is really hard to time the crash, every quarter someone predicted a crash and yet it been going up every year. May be Obama just did fine job of building our economy.

If I have to make a bet, the crash will probably happen 1 or 2 years after the tax cut and deregulation actually happened.

Anyone remember what stocks performs relatively well during the previous crash? Wasn't it McDonald, Walmart, and a few food companies?

Doesnt Gold always go up when everything crashes? Right now is a good time to buy Gold
Celcius
Member
(03-24-2017, 04:05 AM)
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Looking forward to selling some of the stock I own in the company that I work for tomorrow.
Captain Smoker
"Hey! What's your name
  then?"
"Mancomb Seepgood."
(03-24-2017, 12:04 PM)
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Micron Technology +10% in After Hours after they posted good results for the last quarter.

I'm +20% now, still going to hold it a bit.

Since it was my biggest single investment until yet it's quite a nice result. :)
jeremy70583
Member
(03-24-2017, 09:26 PM)
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Wanted to get your guys opinon on this.
I've been socking all my extra cash in ally for an emergency fund. I'm reaching close to 20k and am investing $500/mo in robinhood. I was thinking about moving half of that emergency fund into investments so it could earn more than 1%. I was thinking one of the Vanguard funds. Any advice?
ClosingADoor
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(03-24-2017, 10:05 PM)
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Originally Posted by jeremy70583

Wanted to get your guys opinon on this.
I've been socking all my extra cash in ally for an emergency fund. I'm reaching close to 20k and am investing $500/mo in robinhood. I was thinking about moving half of that emergency fund into investments so it could earn more than 1%. I was thinking one of the Vanguard funds. Any advice?

Have a look at http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=749978

Take a certain amount of income as an emergency fund like you have now (I do 6 months of expenses). The rest goes into investments.

Vanguard funds are good and cheap. I am in their Total Market and S&P 500 ETFs. Depends a bit on your goals though. Is this for the very long term, or do you plan to use the money sooner? That might impact if you just throw it all in now or not.
jeremy70583
Member
(03-24-2017, 10:18 PM)
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Originally Posted by ClosingADoor

Have a look at http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=749978

Take a certain amount of income as an emergency fund like you have now (I do 6 months of expenses). The rest goes into investments.

Vanguard funds are good and cheap. I am in their Total Market and S&P 500 ETFs. Depends a bit on your goals though. Is this for the very long term, or do you plan to use the money sooner? That might impact if you just throw it all in now or not.

Thanks!

This is pretty long term, as I don't really have a need for the money minus catastrophe. I'm already maxing out Roth IRA and 401k and investing in RobinHood on the side. Just wanted to put my extra money to work.
kiunchbb
www.dictionary.com
(03-26-2017, 06:23 PM)
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Originally Posted by jeremy70583

Wanted to get your guys opinon on this.
I've been socking all my extra cash in ally for an emergency fund. I'm reaching close to 20k and am investing $500/mo in robinhood. I was thinking about moving half of that emergency fund into investments so it could earn more than 1%. I was thinking one of the Vanguard funds. Any advice?

Look at I Bond Treasury direct. I did not own any myself, but the inflation one is 2.7%. You can't withdraw it within 12 months, 3 months interest penalty if withdraw less than 5 years. The interest in Federal taxable but no state tax.

There's a 10k purchase limit per SSN per year, so layer it out by buying some every 6 months so not all your money are locked at the same time.
Joe
Member
(03-26-2017, 08:39 PM)
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Are there any good sources for quarterly or bi-annual sector outlooks? Because I can't find any.

Edit: Found this Q1 2017 Market Update from Fidelity and it's really informative. Thought this yearly ranking of asset performances was really interesting to look at:

Last edited by Joe; 03-27-2017 at 02:05 AM.
Ether_Snake
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(03-27-2017, 01:51 AM)
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Watch out over the next two weeks, it's extremely unlikely that Trump's big infrastructure bill can go through with what happened this week, so the markets are likely to tank.

Originally Posted by Joe

Are there any good sources for quarterly or bi-annual sector outlooks? Because I can't find any.

Edit: Found this Q1 2017 Market Update from Fidelity (.pdf) and it's really informative. Thought this yearly ranking of asset performances was really interesting to look at:

Sure makes it look like putting money in small cap stocks is the best thing you can do.
Last edited by Ether_Snake; 03-27-2017 at 01:53 AM.
Joe
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(03-27-2017, 02:03 AM)
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Originally Posted by Ether_Snake

Watch out over the next two weeks, it's extremely unlikely that Trump's big infrastructure bill can go through with what happened this week, so the markets are likely to tank.



Sure makes it look like putting money in small cap stocks is the best thing you can do.

Use this interactive table to more easily view performances: https://institutional.fidelity.com/a...569_30073.html
Last edited by Joe; 03-27-2017 at 02:06 AM.
FliXFantatier
Member
(03-27-2017, 02:11 AM)
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Originally Posted by Ether_Snake


Sure makes it look like putting money in small cap stocks is the best thing you can do.

I don't think you understood the graph.
The top row isn't always small caps the order is colour coded to the different investment types, top row being the best performer in a given time frame.
The entire point of the table is to show how important it is to diversify and not put everything into an S&P500 ETF.
Last edited by FliXFantatier; 03-27-2017 at 11:51 PM.
Ether_Snake
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(03-27-2017, 04:56 AM)
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I was more basing this on how its worst performance in the past 20 years was 5% in the 2008 crisis.
Husker86
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(03-27-2017, 07:18 AM)
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Originally Posted by FliXFantatier

I don't think you understood the graph.
The top row isn't always small caps the order is cooler coded to the different investment types, top row being the best performer in a given time frame..

Ohhhh. That makes more sense.
ClosingADoor
Member
(03-27-2017, 09:07 AM)
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Ouch... Everything in the red. Some stuff by 2 or 3 percent. Hopefully some recovery over the week.
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
(03-27-2017, 01:10 PM)
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Fuck mam fuck, now I really regret not selling GOOG :( i know that thinking about ifs is not realistic but i am never right :(
Maybesew
Member
(03-27-2017, 09:06 PM)
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quite the intraday comeback/rally
FliXFantatier
Member
(03-27-2017, 11:51 PM)
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.
Last edited by FliXFantatier; 03-28-2017 at 03:11 AM.
SonicXtreme
Banned
(03-27-2017, 11:59 PM)

Originally Posted by Ether_Snake

I was more basing this on how its worst performance in the past 20 years was 5% in the 2008 crisis.

What? it was -34% that year...
Ether_Snake
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(03-28-2017, 12:41 AM)
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Originally Posted by SonicXtreme

What? it was -34% that year...

Small caps were up 5%
Husker86
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(03-28-2017, 01:48 AM)
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Originally Posted by Ether_Snake

Small caps were up 5%

You're reading the chart wrong (so was I). The legend on the right is not "lined up" with the rest of the chart. It's just a legend.
WoodWERD
Member
(03-28-2017, 02:48 PM)
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TSLA back up as Tencent acquires 5%. I like it!
ColdPizza
Banned
(03-28-2017, 04:35 PM)
wow, looks like i fucked up by selling panera too early at $237....it's taking off
jeremy70583
Member
(03-29-2017, 03:23 PM)
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I've taken half of my emergency fund and put it in a vanguard brokerage account. Now I need to decide whether I want to buy mutual funds or ETFs...anyone have an opinion?
Walter White Walker
Member
(03-29-2017, 03:51 PM)
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Originally Posted by jeremy70583

I've taken half of my emergency fund and put it in a vanguard brokerage account. Now I need to decide whether I want to buy mutual funds or ETFs...anyone have an opinion?

ETFs are more tax efficient so that's what you want.

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-ce...tax-efficiency
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...efficiency.asp
jeremy70583
Member
(03-29-2017, 04:21 PM)
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Originally Posted by Walter White Walker

ETFs are more tax efficient so that's what you want.

https://www.fidelity.com/learning-ce...tax-efficiency
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...efficiency.asp

Thank you for the info.
ClosingADoor
Member
(03-29-2017, 04:25 PM)
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Sold my oil a bit too soon this morning. Up again after the US opened. Well, waiting for the next drop I guess.
Unknown Soldier
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(03-29-2017, 06:08 PM)
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Originally Posted by WoodWERD

TSLA back up as Tencent acquires 5%. I like it!

Model 3 launch is looking like it's on time. If that really happens this year, the next destination for TSLA isn't the Moon or even Mars. It's Andromeda. I have my stake and I'm ready for the jump to hyperspace.
Maybesew
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(03-29-2017, 06:39 PM)
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Originally Posted by ClosingADoor

Sold my oil a bit too soon this morning. Up again after the US opened. Well, waiting for the next drop I guess.

I'm neutral on oil right now, need it to hang out here between 48 and 51 for a week or 2
Mrbob
how can the baaasheep
enjoy the shootbang?
(03-29-2017, 07:07 PM)
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So do you feel good or bad when you don't go full position of a stock that rises heavy.

I bought half of FIZZ position in mid 40s but not full amount. Now it's in mid 80s which is nice but I'm sort of sad I never went to full position.
ColdPizza
Banned
(03-29-2017, 07:13 PM)

Originally Posted by Mrbob

So do you feel good or bad when you don't go full position of a stock that rises heavy.

I bought half of FIZZ position in mid 40s but not full amount. Now it's in mid 80s which is nice but I'm sort of sad I never went to full position.

You'll second guess yourself no matter what you do. As long as you aren't losing money. What if you went full position and lost your ass on it like I did with NVAX?

I'm in a FB discussion group for NVAX where one of the members is currently down $600k.
thestopsign
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(03-29-2017, 07:30 PM)
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So I have been listening to a podcast that constantly has advertising for Motif Investing, which is basically brokerage account that manages your investments into sustainable or forward looking companies and I've been considering joining it. I have a bunch of cash sitting in my Charles Schwab account that I haven't been doing anything with, so I thought I might as well start putting some of it into Motif.

Anyone have any thoughts on this? It works as a subscription based service with ~$10 a month cost, so for it to really be effective I have to put a bit of money into it.
Unknown Soldier
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(03-29-2017, 07:40 PM)
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Sounds like a terrible idea.

Investing is about making money. Your only relevant measure of investing performance is your ROI. Period. Full stop.

If you happen to be in on a forward-looking company and it's making you bank like TSLA, that's just good coincidence. Alternatively, if you bought SCTY because it was a forward-looking company you got it in the shorts and maybe Tesla can save your investment and maybe it can't but you still got fucked in the short term.
ClosingADoor
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(03-29-2017, 08:48 PM)
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Originally Posted by Mrbob

So do you feel good or bad when you don't go full position of a stock that rises heavy.

I bought half of FIZZ position in mid 40s but not full amount. Now it's in mid 80s which is nice but I'm sort of sad I never went to full position.

I would't feel good putting all my money in one stock. That is just asking for trouble, since you are going to get it wrong sometimes.

Originally Posted by thestopsign

So I have been listening to a podcast that constantly has advertising for Motif Investing, which is basically brokerage account that manages your investments into sustainable or forward looking companies and I've been considering joining it. I have a bunch of cash sitting in my Charles Schwab account that I haven't been doing anything with, so I thought I might as well start putting some of it into Motif.

Anyone have any thoughts on this? It works as a subscription based service with ~$10 a month cost, so for it to really be effective I have to put a bit of money into it.

I don't see the point of this or the added value. If you want to be in sustainable companies, you can do that with any broker. Just buy the shares. Or buy the ETF that groups them together.

It's nice marketing from them I guess, but there really is no point to picking them over a cheaper broker and just buying the same things.
Mrbob
how can the baaasheep
enjoy the shootbang?
(03-29-2017, 09:05 PM)
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Not putting all money on one stock as I cap x amount of dollars I put into any solo stock. Just that I was at half of what I normally would go with on FIZZ but I get your points. It's run hard pretty fast recently though so I might start trimming.

Motif is interesting....I used to have an account there and it's nice to Basically make your own etf of stocks. The site is slick and you can set percentages​ for every stock in your motif and it'll grab the fractional shares for investments. I decided though i might as well just invest in existing etfs like vti instead. But if you are interested give it a shot with a small amount of money and see how you like it. If you enjoy building and maintaining your own personal etf you can add more money to it.

Edit Didn't realize they have their own investment guide now but might as well just get an existing etf instead
Last edited by Mrbob; 03-29-2017 at 09:13 PM.
Joe
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(03-29-2017, 09:15 PM)
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AIER analysis of February indicators "point to economic expansion continuing in the months ahead".

Overall, the recent performance of our Leaders is reassuring, pointing to continuing economic expansion in the months ahead, with a low risk of recession. Positive signs for the current expansion are reinforced by favorable results from our Coinciders and our Laggers. Our Coinciders registered 83 for the third month in a row as four indicators continued up, two trended flat, and none trended lower. Our Laggers posted a very solid 92 reading for the second consecutive month, with five indicators trending higher, just one remaining flat, and none moving lower.

March analysis should be out in about 2 weeks. They are great monthly evaluations, highly suggest bookmarking them.
ClosingADoor
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(03-30-2017, 10:19 AM)
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My only biotech stock is going up 8% today (AMS:KDS). Numbers tomorrow, hopefully it won't crash back down. Still need 10% more to break even on it though.

Edit: And down 8% again on the numbers. The waiting continues.
Last edited by ClosingADoor; 03-31-2017 at 09:16 AM.
Joe
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(04-01-2017, 10:06 PM)
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I'm a newbie but this can't be good...right?

https://insight.factset.com/earningsinsight_03.31.17



Assuming the closing value of the market for today is above 2238.83, the first quarter will mark the sixteenth quarter in the past 20 quarters in which the bottom-up EPS estimate decreased during the quarter while the value of the index increased over this same time frame.

Joe
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(04-02-2017, 09:40 PM)
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Would you say this 10-step due diligence plan from Investopedia is sufficient or lacking?

http://www.investopedia.com/articles...-diligence.asp
ColdPizza
Banned
(04-03-2017, 05:14 PM)
Panera up on takeover rumors. Man I sold my shares at $237. I feel sick. Lol
Unknown Soldier
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(04-03-2017, 09:13 PM)
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Elon Musk is trolling the shorts again.
https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/...7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Just so you guys know, he did almost the same tweet in 2013. The stock has doubled since then.

It's probably not too late to get on this train if you still haven't gotten in yet.
Maybesew
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(04-03-2017, 10:30 PM)
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Originally Posted by Joe

I'm a newbie but this can't be good...right?

https://insight.factset.com/earningsinsight_03.31.17

its not sustainable, but if you look at the chart, it's basically only for 1 earning season. In a couple weeks the big companies will start reporting their next quarter, and can close that gap. or widen it.
BeforeU
Oft hope is born when all is forlorn.
(04-03-2017, 10:48 PM)
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Originally Posted by Unknown Soldier

Elon Musk is trolling the shorts again.
https://mobile.twitter.com/elonmusk/...7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Just so you guys know, he did almost the same tweet in 2013. The stock has doubled since then.

It's probably not too late to get on this train if you still haven't gotten in yet.

You think it will still go up :O its already at almost 300.
ClosingADoor
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(04-03-2017, 10:57 PM)
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Originally Posted by BeforeU

You think it will still go up :O its already at almost 300.


Management expects Model 3 will help Tesla's vehicle production increase from a rate of about 100,000 units per year today to around 500,000 units next year.

Ambitious target, but if they can make it... that's a whole lot of growth and no sign of stopping after that.
Ether_Snake
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(04-04-2017, 02:05 AM)
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They're going to have a bigger market cap than Honda by the end of the year if this keeps up. They have to outright become mainstream to sustain the current price, let alone go further up.

I really feel like selling even if I'm still down 34% on it (former SCTY shares), and then buying again on a dip, but I said that a few weeks ago and it still went up.

Tesla could one day become the Amazon of transportation, energy and utilities.

Originally Posted by ClosingADoor




Ambitious target, but if they can make it... that's a whole lot of growth and no sign of stopping after that.

Cheap oil + an economic downturn (which would compound cheap oil) could hurt, the stock is volatile so that would be quite a hit.
Morts
Member
(04-04-2017, 03:00 PM)
Every week I end up telling myself "I should've bought more Tesla last week".
AP90
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(04-04-2017, 03:27 PM)
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What are peoples thoughts on lithium investments? Like a lithium and battery tech ETF such as LIT.
ClosingADoor
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(04-04-2017, 03:34 PM)
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Originally Posted by Ether_Snake

Cheap oil + an economic downturn (which would compound cheap oil) could hurt, the stock is volatile so that would be quite a hit.

True. But in the long term we will go electric and Tesla is the company at the front of that now. It has a name for itself, it has the technology, the infrastructure.

The large problem I see is if either the Model 3 has troubles somehow, or if they lose their edge to competitors in a big way, but I don't know how that would happen.
Captain Smoker
"Hey! What's your name
  then?"
"Mancomb Seepgood."
(04-04-2017, 04:26 PM)
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Amazon is on a run, 900$ for the first time.

Luckily I started to invest some money a few weeks ago, I'm +9% as of now.


I bet Bezos is going to be richest dude soon. ^^

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