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NPD Hardware Numbers January to April 2017 *Estimate*

mejin

mejin

Member
XBO is in a bad spot. All the features and retro won't help if lineup of new games is lacking so much. And we're talking about US market their best market, so I wonder how far behind they are in worldwide sales compared to last year. Dat $199 is really needed right now cause 5 or 6 more months till scorpio could rise the bad perception about the brand. It will be harder and harder to convince the general public to have faith in the new hardware IMO.

MS should show it on E3 with all the fanfare due to Scorpio and I hope with a bunch of new (not so much predictable) games coming together. It's really time to Spencer stop talking and show the receipts.

Switch is doing fine. Nintendo is in a different path and although meager western support from developers/publishers we know japanese developers and of course, nintendo software should be enough for the platform.

Sony is doing better than expected. We now know Switch didn't affect PS4 in any way. There is a clear message about Pro, 2017 lineup is damn good and we have several big games to come. Diversity is at full force and market deals are crazy. Sony have enough games to start 2018 strong too. If they don't mess up they have a solid foundation for a new playstation in a couple of years.
 
Y

Yjynx

Member
Rather making thread every months/quarter I wonder if its better for this thread to be updated monthly with NPD sales estimate ?

Perhaps Mod can help to change the title of the thread?
 
P

Primethius

Banned
Yjynx said:
Bear in mind that X1s momentum pretty much died this year. I suspect that most people that bought X1s last year were mostly previous owner of OG X1. Which bring the question for Scorpio. Would scorpio face the same fate as X1s?
Click to expand...

I think so. It seems to be the common sentiment that the Scorpio is aimed at the Xbox core. So it's probably going to come out swinging and experience a faster decay month to month than the XB1S.
 
O

OrbitalBeard

Member
Primethius said:
I think so. It seems to be the common sentiment that the Scorpio is aimed at the Xbox core. So it's probably going to come out swinging and experience a faster decay month to month than the XB1S.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I think Scorpio will have a solid holiday this year, though I don't think it's going to be massive.

And then comes January.

Nintendo and Sony are very likely to have some big titles lined up for Q1. If MS does, it'll be out of character for them.

Like, MS will need an unprecedented E3 showing this year for me to feel any differently about the future of XB1/Scorpio.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
MS usually has strong holidays that are followed up by a pretty poor first quarter. They will need a big title in Q1 to help maintain some of the momentum. I think Sea of Thieves will be delayed to Q1 but that won't be enough. RDR2 isn't coming out until April, at the earliest, so that is out of the question. E3 will be vital for Scorpio.
 
Y

yukianderson

Member
I think Sony has got the secret of how to put game up. They have marketing for the holidays and first party during the pre season. They alredy have a massive list of games coming in early 2018 and the same will be in 2019. They know new IP need space and can't make it in holidays. They gave some really smart people at Sony that know how to space out games and how to best place them. With the pro price cut looming and so many marking deals that will make seem like PS4 is the only game system in town for those games they will have a monster holiday especially with a 199 PS4.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
$199 Slim + $350 Pro + big marketing deals + some first party titles sprinkled over the rest of the year(GT Sport, Uncharted, Knack, etc...) = $$$. Sony is set once/if they announce price drops. I don't think price drops are a necessity but it would really cement their position during the holidays.
 
P

Primethius

Banned
OrbitalBeard said:
Yeah, I think Scorpio will have a solid holiday this year, though I don't think it's going to be massive.

And then comes January.

Nintendo and Sony are very likely to have some big titles lined up for Q1. If MS does, it'll be out of character for them.

Like, MS will need an unprecedented E3 showing this year for me to feel any differently about the future of XB1/Scorpio.
Click to expand...

I'm certainly interested in seeing their E3 showing. They've made it seem like a hype worthy event, even more so than past years. Let's see if they're able to deliver, rather than just putting on a standard, expected conference.

FinaruDensetsu said:
Wow so much doom and gloom. I expect the same threads but for PS4 when Scorpio releases and Xbox starts outselling PS4.
Click to expand...

It's not really doom and gloom so much as the more obvious and safe prediction given the trajectory of this generation. As Drifting mentioned, the XB1S had much of the same talk around it. And you can see where that is at this year.

The Scorpio/XB1 might outsell the PS4 for a few months and then we'll go back to your standard PS4 dominating the XB1 year round story.
 
B

BritBloke916

Member
FinaruDensetsu said:
Wow so much doom and gloom. I expect the same threads but for PS4 when Scorpio releases and Xbox starts outselling PS4.
Click to expand...

The potential threat to Sony posed by Scorpio evaporated as soon as its CPU was revealed; it's just not going to be enough of a performance gulf. Checkerboard 4K Vs Native 4K is visually closer than anyone expected and Scorpio is likely to find itself not just up against a cheaper price-dropped PS4 Pro but it'll be a 'new' Slim Pro model too, likely with UHD support.
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
FinaruDensetsu said:
Wow so much doom and gloom. I expect the same threads but for PS4 when Scorpio releases and Xbox starts outselling PS4.
Click to expand...

this doom and gloom talk is nothing new
people often still don't realize that hardware sales are more concentrated towards the holiday period today.

up to 75% of yearly sales is Q4 only
that is significantly up from the Ps2 and early Xb360 era
 
D

Dash_Riprock

Member
MS putting all their eggs in the Scorpio basket seems very foolish right now. Power was NOT the main reason PS4 dominated, especially worldwide.

FinaruDensetsu said:
Wow so much doom and gloom. I expect the same threads but for PS4 when Scorpio releases and Xbox starts outselling PS4.
Click to expand...

Whatever momentum the S had was gone by January. I have yet to see any convincing reason why Scorpio will not suffer the same fate, especially at a $499+ price point.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
Best case scenario - Scorpio is $399 with a (fairly) big Q1 2018 game announced at E3.
Worst case scenario - Scorpio is $499 with nothing in Q1 2018.
 
Majmun

Majmun

Member
FinaruDensetsu said:
Wow so much doom and gloom. I expect the same threads but for PS4 when Scorpio releases and Xbox starts outselling PS4.
Click to expand...

The Ps4 and Switch are hugely successful. In all markets, not just NA. Sony and Nintendo offer two different things and the consoles complement each other very well.

One has always to suffer, in this case it's MS.
 
C

cheesekao

Member
hanspampel said:
this doom and gloom talk is nothing new
people often still don't realize that hardware sales are more concentrated towards the holiday period today.

up to 75% of yearly sales is Q4 only
that is significantly up from the Ps2 and early Xb360 era
Click to expand...
I think that's a significant overestimation of holiday sales, at least for the PS4 anyway. It may be true for Xbox but I don't have the numbers.

PS4 2014 (8/2/14 to 4/1/15)
Total: 13.2m
Before Holidays: 9.1m (68.94%)
After Holidays: 4.1m (31.06%)

PS4 2015 (5/1/15 to 3/1/16)
Total: 17.4m
Before Holidays: 11.7m (67.24%)
After Holidays: 5.7m (32.76%)

PS4 2016 (4/1/16 to 1/1/17)
Total: 17.5m
Before Holidays: 11.3m (64.57%)
After Holidays: 6.2m (35.43%)

Note: All Before Holiday dates are before Black Friday.
 
wapplew

wapplew

Member
Beysus said:
The Ps4 and Switch are hugely successful. Offering two different things and the consoles complement each other very well.

One has always to suffer, in this case it's MS.
Click to expand...

Hardware numbers only half the story tho. Xbox gaming revenue is not tha far from competitions, according to EA financial report, their revenue split almost neck to neck on both platform.
Thanks to play anywhere, BC support, Xbox users more willing to spend money on Xbox live.
With Scorpio, they can keep those high spending customers in thier ecosystem, they will also get back customers who want best performance, gamers who own both console will buy multiplat on Xbox.

In the age of game as services, getting more high spending users is more important than pure hardware sales.
 
Toni

Toni

Member
Beysus said:
The Ps4 and Switch are hugely successful. In all markets, not just NA. Sony and Nintendo offer two different things and the consoles complement each other very well.

One has always to suffer, in this case it's MS.
Click to expand...

Its way too early to call the Switch "hugely" successful.

It had a big opening, but so did the Xbox One. And the Xbox One went to sell big holiday numbers too along with a very decent first year (on a monthly basis).

It was after the 2nd year on the market that Xbox One started slowing down. So it remains to be seen how the Switch fairs agaisnt the Xbox One and PS4 in its 1st and 2nd year.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
PS4 up yoy is really great... the momentum is strong and it can become even better after E3 and reaching it peak before holidays with Destiny 2 launch in September.
 
C

cheesekao

Member
wapplew said:
Hardware numbers only half the story tho. Xbox gaming revenue is not tha far from competitions, according to EA financial report, their revenue split almost neck to neck on both platform.
Thanks to play anywhere, BC support, Xbox users more willing to spend money on Xbox live.
With Scorpio, they can keep those high spending customers in thier ecosystem, they will also get back customers who want best performance, gamers who own both console will buy multiplat on Xbox.

In the age of game as services, getting more high spending users is more important than pure hardware sales.
Click to expand...
EA is just one company though. You have to compare it with all the big ones, including Japanese companies, to get a better idea.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
wapplew said:
Hardware numbers only half the story tho. Xbox gaming revenue is not tha far from competitions, according to EA financial report, their revenue split almost neck to neck on both platform.
Thanks to play anywhere, BC support, Xbox users more willing to spend money on Xbox live.
With Scorpio, they can keep those high spending customers in thier ecosystem, they will also get back customers who want best performance, gamers who own both console will buy multiplat on Xbox.

In the age of game as services, getting more high spending users is more important than pure hardware sales.
Click to expand...
I think that is MS' strategy too - draw as much revenue from their core base as possible. I don't think they are trying to expand and gain new crowds. They already know that ship has sailed. They just want to do what they can to keep the users they do have spending.
 
Toni

Toni

Member
OrbitalBeard said:
It's actually not too early at this point.
Click to expand...

Its doing "huge" in Japan at the moment. Its the only place where its outperforming the market leader beacuse of console on the go (handheld). Which Japan is crazy for.

In America, it didnt outsold the PS4 (in its first month) which had 1 million units sold in its first 24 hours. The Switch took a month to get to 900k. Then the PS4 went on to sell a massive 6 million by January after that 1 million debut worldwide.

Its not outdoing or selling near PS4 numbers, which are record numbers. In my opinion, I wouldnt call that "huge". Just a firmly healthy console debut.
 
J

Jigorath

Banned
Huh, I didn't expect PS4 to be up YOY (so far anyways) without a price drop. It's doing really well even with the extra competition on the market.
 
G

gamz

Member
Toni said:
Its way too early to call the Switch "hugely" successful.

It had a big opening, but so did the Xbox One. And the Xbox One went to sell big holiday numbers too along with a very decent first year (on a monthly basis).

It was after the 2nd year on the market that Xbox One started slowing down. So it remains to be seen how the Switch fairs agaisnt the Xbox One and PS4 in its 1st and 2nd year.
Click to expand...

No it's not. It's not slowing down anytime soon.
 
K

Kastrioti

Persecution Complex
OrbitalBeard said:
I'm trying really, really hard to imagine a scenario where Scorpio is a big success and I just cannot come up with one. Even if it launches at $399. If Switch had been a complete non-starter, then maybe. I feel PS4 and Switch are different enough to coexist peacefully and both serve the market well.
Click to expand...

This is what I've been thinking in terms of fall U.S. sales and really going forward.

The Switch is going to be the hot holiday item and I'm not just talking videogames. Anything Nintendo stocks is going to be sold out IMO.

MS will be in a battle with Sony and I don't see them winning that even with the Scorpio. Scorpio will probably have sales akin to PS4 Pro which means it'll sell to the enthusiast but I don't see it expanding their audience. I don't think MS has a chance to do that until the next Xbox.

They'll still come in a healthy third for the fall if they get a One S price drop to $199.

But then you have to wonder how they'll do starting next January and into 2018.
 
O

OrbitalBeard

Member
Toni said:
Its doing "huge" in Japan at the moment. Its the only place where its outperforming the market leader beacuse of console on the go (handheld). Which Japan is crazy for.

In America, it didnt outsold the PS4 which had 1 million units sold in its first 24 hours. The Switch took a month to get to 900k. Then the PS4 went on to sell a massive 6 million by January after that 1 million debut.

Its not outdoing or selling near PS4 numbers, which are record numbers. In my opinion, I wouldnt call that "huge". Just a firmly healthy console debut.
Click to expand...

"Huge"' doesn't have to mean "outselling PlayStation 4".
 
G

gamz

Member
wapplew said:
Hardware numbers only half the story tho. Xbox gaming revenue is not tha far from competitions, according to EA financial report, their revenue split almost neck to neck on both platform.
Thanks to play anywhere, BC support, Xbox users more willing to spend money on Xbox live.
With Scorpio, they can keep those high spending customers in thier ecosystem, they will also get back customers who want best performance, gamers who own both console will buy multiplat on Xbox.

In the age of game as services, getting more high spending users is more important than pure hardware sales.
Click to expand...

Preach. Been saying this forever.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
Jigorath said:
Huh, I didn't expect PS4 to be up YOY (so far anyways) without a price drop. It's doing really well even with the extra competition on the market.
Click to expand...
I think that is because PS4 and Switch compliment each other rather well. PS4 for home, Switch for go, and both have unique libraries relative to the other. They can both exist and do their own thing instead of clashing with one another.
 
Toni

Toni

Member
gamz said:
No it's not. It's not slowing down anytime soon.
Click to expand...

No console slows down after the first 2 or 3 years.

But people need to put their expectations in check. The tone that people seem to be having regarding the Switch sales is that its going to be outselling the Xbox One 1st and 2nd year, which is a huge feat.

I even heard it doing 400k monthly. Which the PS4 has done but only in a few ocassions, and has failed to keep that streak on a month-to-month basis.
 
G

gamz

Member
Toni said:
No console slows down after the first 2 or 3 years.

But people need to put their expectations in check. The tone that people seem to have regarding the Switch sales is that its going to be outselling the Xbox One 1st and 2nd year, which is a huge feat.

I even heard it doing 400k monthly. Which even the PS4 has done only in a few ocassions, but failed to keep that streak on a month-to-month basis.
Click to expand...

Why? I'm seeing no reason to put expectations in check. I think it has more mass market appeal then Xbox and Sony consoles because you can take it with you. Now I could be wrong, but I'm not seeing anything that disputes that yet.

Time will tell.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
gamz said:
Why? I'm seeing no reason to put expectations in check. I think it has more mass market appeal then Xbox and Sony consoles because you can take it with you. Now I could be wrong, but I'm not seeing anything that disputes that yet.

Time will tell.
Click to expand...
Do you think that supposed appeal will translate to sales? Like, will Switch sell on par with PS4 when it is all said and done? What are your expectations for Switch?
 
H

Heshinsi

"playing" dumb? unpossible
PackAPunchedMick said:
I have a strong feeling Microsoft will take a loss on the hardware at launch to keep the price below $400. But as you say, anything greater than 400 bucks is DOA.
Click to expand...

It's not just $400 though is it? It's the same thing the pro faces. In market that only a small segment of the population own 4k sets, sell me on why I need a 4k tv and one of these machines if I'm not an enthusiast.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
cheesekao said:
EA is just one company though. You have to compare it with all the big ones, including Japanese companies, to get a better idea.
Click to expand...
EA is also the one company that's been majorly favoring XBX this gen, with exclusives (Fifa legends, Titanfall...) and a crap load of bundles (Madden every year, etc.) which will naturally skew the numbers (the 1 benefitting largely the PS4 was the Battlefront one).

Unless we have the gaming related income from each company to compare (MS won't give that), it's a pointless talk based on assumptions.

MS's strategy (maximizing revenue per a more limited amount of users) makes sense because of that tough (less sales), rather than being able to do both (large userbase -and- GaaS both).
US and UK are their core markets, and tbh I have seen little to indicate they are doing much efforts to expand beyond that.
And if you (generic you) think it's because they are "satisfied" by the current situation, then you don't understand business quite simply.
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
cheesekao said:
I think that's a significant overestimation of holiday sales, at least for the PS4 anyway. It may be true for Xbox but I don't have the numbers.

PS4 2014 (8/2/14 to 4/1/15)
Total: 13.2m
Before Holidays: 9.1m (68.94%)
After Holidays: 4.1m (31.06%)

PS4 2015 (5/1/15 to 3/1/16)
Total: 17.4m
Before Holidays: 11.7m (67.24%)
After Holidays: 5.7m (32.76%)

PS4 2016 (4/1/16 to 1/1/17)
Total: 17.5m
Before Holidays: 11.3m (64.57%)
After Holidays: 6.2m (35.43%)

Note: All Before Holiday dates are before Black Friday.
Click to expand...


fist of all this is an NPD topic, so im talking about US sales
second of all, i said Q4 and not December and 1 week November only

Ps4 sales 2015
Q1 - Q3 ~ 2320k (40%)
Q4 ~ 3400k (60%)

Xbox One sales 2015
Q1 - Q3 ~ 1955k (40%)
Q4 ~ 2975k (60%)

Xbox One sales 2016:
Q1- Q3 ~ 1885k (40%)
Q4 ~ 2740k (60%)


yeah not 75%, but i said up to 75% and just quoted Mat from an NPD prediction topic.
probably he was talking about overall $ sales volume and not hardware units
MatPiscatella said:
Very broad strokes... Q4 can account for as much as 75% of annual sales volume, a typical January is mid to low single digit %. Of course this varies from year to year. I can go dig into my archives and share % of annual spend by month later this week.
Click to expand...
 
Aceofspades

Aceofspades

Banned
hanspampel said:
this doom and gloom talk is nothing new
people often still don't realize that hardware sales are more concentrated towards the holiday period today.

up to 75% of yearly sales is Q4 only
that is significantly up from the Ps2 and early Xb360 era
Click to expand...

Maybe thats true for Xbox brand, Playstation 4 shifted almost 10m units last quarter.
 
C

cheesekao

Member
hanspampel said:
fist of all this is an NPD topic, so im talking about US sales
second of all, i said Q4 and not December and 1 week November only

Ps4 sales 2015
Q1 - Q3 ~ 2320k (40%)
Q4 ~ 3400k (60%)

Xbox One sales 2015
Q1 - Q3 ~ 1955k (40%)
Q4 ~ 2975k (60%)

Xbox One sales 2016:
Q1- Q3 ~ 1885k (40%)
Q4 ~ 2740k (60%)


yeah not 75%, but i said up to 75% and just quoted Mat from an NPD prediction topic.
probably he was talking about overall $ sales volume and not hardware units
Click to expand...
Fair enough. Btw, do you have a record of all known 9th gen NPD data? It's not that I don't trust those numbers, I'm just interested in looking through them.
 
Shin-Ra

Shin-Ra

Junior Member
1S bump was short-lived before returning to the downward trend YoY and the UHD BD drive won't help with driving down the BOM.

I hope the deliberately misleading advertising last year ends up biting them in the ass when time comes to push the real deal 4K games system. Consumers have pretty short memories though, even enthusiasts on this board.
 
xabbott

xabbott

Member
Dash_Riprock said:
MS putting all their eggs in the Scorpio basket seems very foolish right now. Power was NOT the main reason PS4 dominated, especially worldwide.
Click to expand...

I don't know why so many people think that Scorpio will "save" Xbox or that Microsoft is basing it's business plans on that.

Back in March, on IGN's Xbox podcast, Phil Spencer even said they expect to sell more Xbox One S consoles than Scorpios. He even discusses the Scorpio being something for the "core" gamers. Full interview here. This is around 27 minutes in.

So it appears Microsoft's plans are to grow the ecosystem, invest in more digital services (gamepass, XPA, etc. ), and do smaller runs on hardware that caters to the right audience. The stuff they are doing with controllers such as the elite, custom colors, etc. Also appear to focus on niche markets. Outside of Xbox even some of the Surface products are kind of working out like this. They are making Surface hubs which range from $8-20k. Then Surface studio which is really niche for around 3k. Then making cheaper Surface books/laptops too.
 
R

Rymuth

Member
DriftingSpirit said:
I think that is MS' strategy too - draw as much revenue from their core base as possible. I don't think they are trying to expand and gain new crowds. They already know that ship has sailed. They just want to do what they can to keep the users they do have spending.
Click to expand...

Said the exact same thing in the NPD thread - http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=233478429&postcount=68

The BC wasn't meant to make the console appealing to new consumers but to keep the existing one locked in. That segment is fine with Halo/Forza/Gears, so the strategy is to avoid risky ventures with Remedy, Platinum etc and just build a loyal base to squeeze MTs and Subscriptions out of.
 
A

Artvanderlay

Member
Shin-Ra said:
1S bump was short-lived before returning to the downward trend YoY and the UHD BD drive won't help with driving down the BOM.

I hope the deliberately misleading advertising last year ends up biting them in the ass when time comes to push the real deal 4K games system. Consumers have pretty short memories though, even enthusiasts on this board.
Click to expand...

Im sure there are a few people who already thought they had purchased the Scorpio last year after the oneS marketing. The 4k push for it, the calling it the oneS (please read memo , DO NOT say slim, sexy is good though) , the lack of side by side size comparisons with PS4 slim was interesting to watch.
 
H

hydrophilic attack

Member
wapplew said:
Hardware numbers only half the story tho. Xbox gaming revenue is not tha far from competitions, according to EA financial report, their revenue split almost neck to neck on both platform.
Thanks to play anywhere, BC support, Xbox users more willing to spend money on Xbox live.
With Scorpio, they can keep those high spending customers in thier ecosystem, they will also get back customers who want best performance, gamers who own both console will buy multiplat on Xbox.

In the age of game as services, getting more high spending users is more important than pure hardware sales.
Click to expand...

Yes EA and Ubisoft games tend to do well on XBO. Considering they are pretty much the only two companies releasing games for it, that is not very strange.

It's not rocket science why Mass Effect: Andromeda and Ghost Recon do better on the platform where Mass Effect: Andramoeda and Ghost Recon were the only mayor games to be released this year
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
Rymuth said:
Said the exact same thing in the NPD thread - http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=233478429&postcount=68

The BC wasn't meant to make the console appealing to new consumers but to keep the existing one locked in. That segment is fine with Halo/Forza/Gears, so the strategy is to avoid risky ventures with Remedy, Platinum etc and just build a loyal base to squeeze MTs and Subscriptions out of.
Click to expand...
Yep, fully agreed.

I've come to terms with it and I just accept Microsoft's stuff isn't for me. In terms of what is best for them as a company, this may be what allows it all to keep going though. I've heard that Microsoft's userbase spends an abnormally high amount on MTX and things of that nature. So, MS sees potential in going this route.
 
G

gamz

Member
Rymuth said:
Said the exact same thing in the NPD thread - http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=233478429&postcount=68

The BC wasn't meant to make the console appealing to new consumers but to keep the existing one locked in. That segment is fine with Halo/Forza/Gears, so the strategy is to avoid risky ventures with Remedy, Platinum etc and just build a loyal base to squeeze MTs and Subscriptions out of.
Click to expand...

Perhaps when it lunched, but now with GamePass it certainly appeals to new users also.

I mean as I said before to a new user picking up a new Xbox and having access to over 100 games for 10 bucks day 1 is pretty inviting.

Edit: And EA access to boot.
 
O

OrbitalBeard

Member
gamz said:
Perhaps when it lunched, but now with GamePass it certainly appeals to new users also.

I mean as I said before to a new user picking up a new Xbox and having access to over 100 games for 10 bucks day 1 is pretty inviting.
Click to expand...

Yeah, Game Pass is super smart. One of the best ideas from MS this gen.
 
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