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ARMS launches June 16
- Thread starter Cerium
- Start date
Dark Cloud
Member
Where is 7.5 million coming from?
There's a difference between saying "ARMS is going to prove people wrong and be very successful" and "ARMS will outsell Splatoon 2". Splatoon has proven itself and we have a baseline number for it. It sold almost 5 million on the crappy Wii U install base.
Everyone expects Splatoon 2 to sell even better than Splatoon. Nobody is saying ARMS won't be successful, but to say it will do better than Splatoon 2, which has proven itself very very successfull, is too much I think.
ZombiePlatypus
Member
Weird how amazon has a placeholder date of "Dec 29" for this game, while Splatoon 2, which releases afterwards, has its real July date listed.
Points taken, but to be fair, I was only saying that ARMS would do "at least" Splatoon 2 numbers. Granted, that is a fucking heavy load given that Splatoon 2 is going to be HUGE, but I think it will match Splatoon. I feel that it has broader potential appeal outside of Japan and it has no competition. That's my hot take, and I might be very wrong.
Edited for clarity
OrbitalBeard
Member
I'd say Splatoon 2's floor is 5 million. If ARMS pulls off a similar number, good lord.
efyu_lemonardo
May I have a cookie?
I thought they said Zelda needed 2 million to break even. Not every game is Zelda and I doubt ARMS has that kind of investment behind it.
Dark Cloud
Member
Yeah that would be so freaking insane if it did 5 million lol. I'm always pessimistic and I feel like me thinking it can do 3-4 million is very successful.
Not to go off topic, but it makes me sad how Metroid could never consistently sell over 2 million. Such a great series which you know they spent good money on and people didn't buy them. I feel like if a Metroid Prime 4 releases in today's market it will do very well.
Just the opposite, they were speaking generally, not about Zelda. It's a common misconception.
My guess is that Zelda actually needs more than 2 million.
efyu_lemonardo
May I have a cookie?
That's kind of crazy - ARMS may possibly not do much better than breaking even? Doesn't seem right.
AAA development is expensive.
source please. theres no way arms needs to sell 2 million JUST to break even. youre talking at least 50 million (more likely 100 million) in dev costs at that stage. no fucking way nintendo would risk 50 million on a game like arms. no fucking way it costs 50 million to make arms.
ThePeoplesBureau
Member
Pics from the exhibition at Makuhari Messe this weekend, with prizes for competing in the tournament (shirt, bandana, sticker). Need that shirt!
Funny you should ask. Just pixel counted this screenshot earlier today, out of curiosity.
Game's still 900p.spicy minmin
With reference to my post regarding my thoughts on how good ARMS can do depending on the execution from Nintendo marketing wise, until the end of FY3/2018 this would be my thoughts on how it performs.
If Nintendo execute well on the game, I expect 2.5 million sales by end of FY3/2018.
1 million sales would be bad and anything over 2.5 million would be great considering the attach rate.
efyu_lemonardo
May I have a cookie?
Principate
Saint Titanfall
This is also a massive assumption they didn't say all games cost that much to break even, it was just a ball park given for some of the higher budget games. Not even from 3rd parties do games like arms cost 2 million to break even and Nintendo doesn't even pay platform royalities.
Smash?
In the realm of "Nintendo's first-year big three mulitplayer games" being ARMS, Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, and Splatoon 2, ARMS is definitely going to sell the least out of the three. Kart goes without saying and Splatoon is apparently cemented as a new and real franchise and already has a lot of its early growing pains out of the way, people are familiar with it and what it is now. ARMS is still trying to get its name out there and I believe there's still a lot of confusion or...unimpressedness(???) left over from its lukewarm reception during the initial Switch reveal. Claiming that ARMS will match or exceed Splatoon 2 is probably selling S2 short more than it is overvaluing ARMS.
Ultimately I think word of mouth and tournament footage will continue to trickle out and more minds will change, especially if their messaging is handled well at E3. I hope it does well, since it and Splatoon combined starts to set up a nice trend of Nintendo being more willing to let younger developers forge their own IPs instead of being constantly stuck into following the settings of their predecessors.
Ultimately I think word of mouth and tournament footage will continue to trickle out and more minds will change, especially if their messaging is handled well at E3. I hope it does well, since it and Splatoon combined starts to set up a nice trend of Nintendo being more willing to let younger developers forge their own IPs instead of being constantly stuck into following the settings of their predecessors.
Probably because of the Amazon uk offer, but arms is now up to 11th on uk and 58th on .com for recent order numbers. Still, very good to see!
SinCityAssassin
Member
I'd say 2 million for ARMS would be a pretty solid number.
Kamina
Golden Boy
Wonder if it will be 720 in Handheld mode, but i guess it should.
FunkyDealer
Banned
I love the look of this game, but I'll eat my hat if it even comes close to Splatoon 2 numbers. A more realistic prediction would be matching Splatoon 1. Which would be damn good on its own.
This really is an advertisement magazine.
UnemployedVillain
Member
You seem to be judging the general mainstream reception based on the reception on GAF which I would strongly caution against. I don't think the general sentiment is negative or needs to be changed. Most people don't know about it, let alone think lowly of it, outside of here.
FunkyDealer
Banned
Could be using handheld boost mode (my_god.gif) which may make it harder to hit 1080p when docked.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
It'll need a stress test in the relataively dead middle of May to get really going but if Nintendo is preparing to do that it should be fun. Looks fun, self explanitory and nothing too confusing to a casual observer
StreetsAhead
Member
I would like to think it can pull off at least double 1 2 Switch, yeah.
Splatoon sold 4.8 million on 13.56 million Wii Us (about 35% attach). ARMS doing better than Splatoon 2 on a device that is expected to have a similar LTD sales figure as Wii U in a year is unlikely, unless Splatoon 2 tanks.
Magic Mushroom
Member
It really isn't.
SporeCrawler
Member
while i agree that it will sell the least out of a group that also includes MK and splatoon i dont think it got lukewarm receptions. previews were glowing from the get go and everyone that played it loved it.
If it's not good, something else, just ask Wonderful 101. That it is already looking really great means there's little to worry about it doing well. If they put out a demo like W101, willing to bet it does better then Splatoon 1, dunno how Spla2n will do.
UnemployedVillain
Member
Wonderful 101 is a 3rd party single player game. It's not really comparable to ARMS aside from coming out during a period without many other games around
No, it's a first party game, but the point is that just because something is on the system, doesn't mean it's gonna sell well. The switch just came out, people can just not buy the system, especially if the amount or quality of games isn't to their liking. Not like snipperclips is doing Zelda numbers.
But let's be honest, a good chunk of the player base will likely go with traditional button controls, especially for serious competition.
... I'm more interested how it plays without the motion controls tbh.
That player base is the floor for this game, as the casual and new audience is way more accepting of non standard controls, and will most likely find the play style more engaging than they would SFV. Splatoon proves this.
I agree that everyone that played it loved it...but that's still a fairly small segment of the overall buying population. I've said it for months now that the original reveal brought mixed returns (yes here on GAF but also gauging reactions from a lot of the media at-large that didn't immediately get to follow it up with hands-on time) thanks to its placement next to 1 2 Switch and the tremendous focus on detailing the motion controls rather than getting into any of the game's options and depth.
This may all end up moot by the time the game releases, regardless. It's at least similar to Splatoon in that it continues waving away the concerns over lack of options and content (which I did hope/assume it would do). I just happen to think Splatoon 2 will still be bigger overall.
Depends on who is the "good chunk of the player base". Those who will play it just for fun will never shy away from the motion controls, and that I think will be the majority. Those who will play it seriously will always go with the optimal controls, so there's a chance for motion control setup as the de facto standard.
OrbitalBeard
Member
Treehouse makes everything look appealing.
This game is releasing at the end of E3.
Treehouse Live + ARMS = $$$
Do the math. It's gonna' be a hit. The core will lap it up on June 16th, word of mouth will spread and BOOM! LEGS
This game is releasing at the end of E3.
Treehouse Live + ARMS = $$$
Do the math. It's gonna' be a hit. The core will lap it up on June 16th, word of mouth will spread and BOOM! LEGS
But to be fair, Splatoon's motion controls were more subtle than how ARMS is using motion controls.
I can see casuals using motion controls, but I wouldn't be surprised if those who take the game more seriously (be it online or at tournaments) move to the Pro Controller (or an arcade stick if the right stick isn't required) for the sake of consistency.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
I wouldn't take the reaction from that event as implication or referrence for anything at all. A not insignificant number of GAF members left that presentation and thought the switch was dead on arrival either wii u level or lower. GAF has never ment anything in terms of wider buying trends. Just because GAF doesn't like it doesn't mean it did or didn't have a good reaction overall. Have a look Tom Clancy's The Wildlands. Did you see a single hyped or positive thread about it? It's the best selling game of the year so far.
DecoReturns
Member
I said it could be a major contributing factor, but not the only one.
It's certainly worth pointing out that it won't have much, if any, competition.
The Wonderful 101 came out 10 months after the (very unpopular) system launched. It wasn't a major title developed internally by Nintendo with the marketing push that comes associated. It wasn't multiplayer.. etc. This, plus the launch timing, could give ARMS a sales boost it might not normally have if it was the hyper competitive holiday season.
Besides the multiplayer aspect, W101 has had as much marketing done so far. A bigger dedicated direct and a demo a couple weeks before release. Game and Wario didn't tear up the charts either. I'm not saying it can't be a boon to be a big fish in a little pond, but I can't stand the fallacy of no games = auto seller, its just not true. And ARMS has a very different audience and value proposition, so even in November, its going to stand out.
I think the difference is it certainly appears that the Switch userbase is really engaged and energized and looking for software to buy. Wii U was just...cold and limp, especially those first 9 months.
Most definitely. Most of the Wii base saw it as a controller for the Wii and would buy the games thinking the controller was just superfluous. I love what the Wii U brought, but its undeniable Nintendo really had no clue with how to market it; and with the HD push, they couldn't push out games fast enough for the market to figure it out like they did with the Wii. I think the biggest thing that the Wii U did was make the old guard realize they may not be as streets ahead as they thought, so they let the younger folks try out some stuff since there wasn't an expectation of immediate success or sales like the Wii did potentially. Now we have splatoon, which is giving us ARMS, and probably more. Even Miyomato said the Wii U was necessary for the Switch, really excited to see more of that on the system, way more than BotW or Mario.
I don't think anyone has here has posted "no games = auto seller."
What I am suggesting is that ARMS, with it's particular circumstances, could see a boost in sales associated with being a big fish in a little pond - like you suggested.
In November, it may not stand out against the oft rumoured Smash. Or the bigger library of Nintendo ever green titles that will be one the market for holiday buyers. Whereas, ARMS will have it's time in the sun in June.