MilkyJoe
Member
I think PS5 2020 Nextbox 2021
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Pachter on PS5: Bets on 2020 launch now, PS4 Pro to become "default PS4"
- Thread starter Bitch Pudding
- Start date
I think PS5 2020 Nextbox 2021
If you're going to carry an argument from another thread at least try to understand the argument in the 1st place, I was simply telling someone that they can't just say that QB would be lower than 1440P on PS4 Pro without knowing how much GPU resource was needed for the reconstruction on Xbox One & Xbox One X. I said nothing about the game being the same level on PS4 Pro as Xbox One X.
statham
Member
Matt, everyone is speaking for you, telling me what you meant. can you please tell me what you meant? These two consoles are going steam like, IMO. we will never have a next gen system with new controllers, and games that are only playable from launch on these systems. IMO, your comment screamed no Xbox ever after the X. Help Me!
Leyasu
Banned
Because he has built up quite a devout following on here.
But in all honesty, I interpreted his deliberately vague post as to a dropping of the "one" branding from the next xbox.
Ambiguous statement? But then your next post clarifies..
Makes much more sense. Context is king
Anyway on the change of title, Pachman going back on his original statement?
statham
Member
pretty sure they are not even thinking about the next console "marketing" right now.
think about it.
whats inside, sure, but how to market it? nah, that comes close to launch.
I mean, I just clarified it in my last post.
Deliberately vague? I was literally quoting a post that said theres would be another, more powerful version of the XBO (like the X), and I said no there wouldnt be. There was nothing vague about it, and if there was, it certainly wasnt deliberate.
shouamabane
Member
Come on, PS4 Pro Slim with UHD disc support!
May I ask what a "BC+" is?
Probably playing PS4/Xbox One games with extra graphical features
And accessories hopefully.
statham
Member
good enough for me, bookmarked,. see you in 2020
Nightengale
Member
In your opinion.
My opinion is that we will have PS5/XB2. That will play PS4/XB1 games. That will support PS4/XB1 controllers. That will have PS4/XB1 features via legacy compatibility.
But the difference is that they will also be new-gen hardware with new controllers and games that cannot be played on PS4/XB1.
Moving forward, smaller indie devs will release games that support multiple-generations ( PS4/5/XB1/2 ) well into 2020 and beyond, as game systems presumably ( and hopefully ) all be BC with legacy platforms.
And just like this gen, the first few years of the next console release will see games that support PS4-PS5/XB1-XB2, because install base and MONEY.
But your 343i, ND, etc? In 2020+, their flagship games will not be playable on XB1 and PS4. The minimum spec of them will be PS5/XB2.
Looking at the numbers Zeppelin(zen), Polaris and Vega all have similar transistor densities meaning a 350mm^2 die should be able to fit around 9B transistors. Fiji to Vega was an increase in transistor density of a bit over 80% and Hawaii to Polaris was a bit under 80% so using the 80% figure a 7nm APU of 350mm^2 would be in the region of 16.2B transistors. Zeppelin (8c Zen) is currently using around 4.8B transistors which would leave 11.4B for the GPU which puts it not a million miles away from Vega's 12.5B transistor count. Raven Ridge CCx modules are rumoured to only be using 4MB of L3 cache instead of 8MB which will save a small amount of die space and transistors making it very possible to fit an 8c zen with enough transistors and die area to get a 12 Tflop GPU in there.
I think the sticking point to a 12 Tflop GPU will be power consumption and clock speed but PS4 Pro is running almost as fast as the 7970Ghz (both around 4Tflops) and using far less power doing it so there is precedent to get there in 3/4 years time.
I think the likely hood is a 2020 release as I think that will be the earliest point where 7nm will be economically viable for a consumer product in the $400 range. With how successful PS4 was I doubt Sony will target a higher price than $400.
I think the sticking point to a 12 Tflop GPU will be power consumption and clock speed but PS4 Pro is running almost as fast as the 7970Ghz (both around 4Tflops) and using far less power doing it so there is precedent to get there in 3/4 years time.
I think the likely hood is a 2020 release as I think that will be the earliest point where 7nm will be economically viable for a consumer product in the $400 range. With how successful PS4 was I doubt Sony will target a higher price than $400.
So what Xbox One X does.
Maybe Sucker Punch new IP will be a PS4 title after all. So for PlayStation 4 first party wise the only thing that are left are The Last of Us 2,Japan Studio new game,From Software and Sucker Punch.
I do believe that Death Stranding will be a cross gen game or a PS5 title only. So for the launch year we mostly going to get Horizon 2,Japan Studio new IP,Quantic Dream new IP, The Last of Us Part II Remaster and God of War Reboot Sequel.
I do believe that Death Stranding will be a cross gen game or a PS5 title only. So for the launch year we mostly going to get Horizon 2,Japan Studio new IP,Quantic Dream new IP, The Last of Us Part II Remaster and God of War Reboot Sequel.
wapplew
Member
Quantic Dream only contracted for 3 titles, Detroit is last Sony exclusive unless they signed new deal.
Their game release next year and you don't shit game out in 2 years nowadays.
statham
Member
nope. controller are perfect. We will see VR or AR into play. We are in a steam-like world.
edit: everyone says this, but what current gen game couldn't be played on 360? you just downgrade shit, but the newest TR, which is a showpiece for the X, also available on 360. stop worrying about stuff.
I suspect it may be a good long while before we have multiplatform games with 4k modes specially tailored to each unique hw feature of the two (assuming such differences even exist).c0de said:
Consider it's been almost a year and we still don't have a single PSVR title using pro's features for VR rendering acceleration(at least as impactful to IQ as cb rendering).
Melchiah
Member
I fully agree. There will be a generational shift just like before, but the new systems will be backwards compatible with the old ones, and enhance the old games.
Well they could always could be 2 different team working on different projects.
This makes more sense. Allow publishers to move on to the better hardware when they want.
Really? Well, that's interesting. Perhaps GTS will be a good candidate to implement it.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
This is true. See the Wii --> WiiU for reference (and the corresponding Nintendo financials for those years).
XBO == Xbox One
"We won't see another upgraded Xbox One (a la the Xbox 1X)", i.e. the next Xbox will be a new generation instead of another mid-gen refresh.
-----------------------------------------------
Also, as a general point it would benefit everyone to not get so hung up on PR quotes taken out of context to inform on MS's Xbox platform corporate strategy.
If MS want to change to a more iterative console model, such a huge change in business model will come with an official announcement and a concerted effort from their entire marketing dept. to communicate this to consumers of Xbox products and services in a clear and concise way.
Companies never make these kinds of all-encompassing changes only to disseminate that information in an off-the-cuff PR comment... so you're looking in the wrong place for that kind of info. if you're trying interpret platform strategy from PR comments.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Exactly, only that the next generation will be able to run every XBOX One and PS4 game in native 4K.
Which will only happen to a few games but yes, the possibility is there.
449$ doesn't make sense. Will be 399 or 499.Can I predict 449$ 2019?
And before FFVIIr release
My bet 399 2020/21, BC
They still haven't released the One X... No chance
Bruce Springsteen
Member
I also think 2019 is too soon if the PS4 is going to keep selling at the pace its at
THE:MILKMAN
Member
Notice that more and more are suggesting PS5 for 2020 or even 2021 and wonder if it tally's with devs being briefed this year? I mean when did they get equally briefed during PS4 development? I doubt up to 4 years in advance?
Panajev2001a
GAF's Pleasant Genius
BC means exactly the opposite, it does not mean starting over again. Just because the Xbox made by a PC maker seems to hinting at a PC like model does not mean the console mode in general is shitty or wrong or must require starting over from scratch (without requiring forward compatible iterative consoles coming out frequently).
Irishonion
Member
2020 has always felt right to me.
michaelpachter
He speaks, and we freak
Because I'm charming, insightful, and entertaining.
Clarity in undeniable.
Best post in the last 17 mins...
The Mad Draklor
Member
One game is not representative of the whole situation. If you want to prove a point, then prove that there is a clear pattern that is beyond just one game.
bitbydeath
Member
But does he have the acting chops
I completely agree, this is the way going forward for Sony.
This would be fine and it's the most likely way this industry will continue. I agree.
Lets assume PS5 is coming Fall 2020 using 7nm FinFET - semi-custom Zen2 and Navi APU. PS5 Pro in 2023 or 2024 - on one of the proposed 5nm or 3nm nodes.
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2017/06/ibm-5nm-chip/?comments=1
PS5 Pro could also use AMD's modular APU design with cpu and gpu chiplets and future stacked memory. The GPU architecture can be anything. The same as what PS5 uses, or forward from Navi.
Whatever performance the base PS5 has, PS5 Pro would have 2x to 4x the GPU performance, the same CPU architecture but clocked quite a bit faster. It would function exactly like the PS4 Pro.
Never going to happen. Not in a million years.
PS4 Pro will not play PS5 games.
Ban bet me.
autoduelist
Member
Yes, they will want to start over. Market the PS4 [includes Pro] till end of the gen, then release the PS5 and shout it from the clouds. Console gens are important to console sales. The PS4 Pro barely changes anything - no exclusive games, just some fancy bells and whistles that the average gamer doesn't care about [or know about]. It captures some extra money from early adopters/tech chasers and some late to the party consumers who get sold up by the guy at the store and that's about it.
The PS5 [5!] will be a huge deal when it's announced, and they will want to distance the tech 'as in, paint it as a gigantic leap forward into the future' from the PS4/Pro as much as possible.
It'll most likely have BC, so I don't think it's a 'full start over', but as far as them wanting to establish that the PS5 is -new- and -awesome- and a brand new gen? Absolutely. They'll shout that from the rooftops.
We absolutely will have games that play only on the PS5 and not on the PS4. They're not giving up gens. Man, I'd argue the console future some of you paint is like the antithesis of the console future most console owners actually want. Give us big, easily identifiable technology leaps on a regular basis [8 years, give or take], and a brand new slew of games that let us feel that jump. Iterative is for the birds, all that does is make everyone feel left behind as their version slowly becomes antiquated and apps slowly stop being updated to work with their system one by one. Ugh.
That's just a matter of limited inputs. Two analogs and a pile of buttons/triggers have a limited of number of playstyles. Just as different inputs for PC [mouse/kb] create different gaming opportunities, having the 'same' basic inputs means we'll get the same types of games. That doesn't meant there won't be improvements like PS4's touchpad, but until someone creates a substantially different controller [good luck with that], we're going to be getting the same general genres.
That has nothing to do with generational leaps though. People expecting entirely new genres just because it's a new gen will be disappointed. Genres are based on inputs. However, game -scope- is based on power [ie, world size, number of enemies, strength of AI, etc].
Shin
Banned
If 2020 then Zen 3 mobile should be available to them, otherwise if there's a PS5 Pro it might have Zen 3 while the base version Zen2/Zen2+*.
Possibly. Though we won't know until we're closer to PS5's reveal / launch / technical analysis.
I don't expect even credible rumors until early 2019.
Thanks for the info (and sorry for the long response time).
In general, is it a couple of years before launch when they make that final decision? Or would it be as late as just one year?
I still hope they shoot for $499 price so can pack in stronger hardware.
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