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UK PoliGAF |OT2| - We Blue Ourselves

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M

Mr. Sam

Member
I've so much envy for the old lads you see sitting at the bar doing a big book of crosswords.

Roberto Larcos said:
Got a little prediction league going, who wants in? Could make election night more fun / less depressing, depending on your perspective. Current prize pool is a bottle of something.
Click to expand...

Conservative Party seats: 369
Green Party seats: 2
Labour seats: 181
Lib Dem seats: 23
SNP seats: 55
Plaid Cymru seats: 3
UKIP seats: 0
Independently held seats: 0
Seats held by other parties: 17

BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland? No.
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland? Yes.
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales? Yes.
The Portillo award goes to..? Clive Lewis
First resignation of the night? None on the night.
How many party leaders will resign? One.
Seat for Nuttall? No.
Margin of victory by seats: 188
Margin of victory by votes: If I have to give a number, uh... 3 million?

Please note - this is all off the top of my head or, more accurately, out of my arse. No actual analysis has gone into this.
 
C

CCS

Banned
QuicheFontaine said:
Haha, I think I've mentally been a 50 year old my whole life. Now I'm 30 I feel like it's just about becoming acceptable to like the things I do. I'm just getting into gardening for instance :p



What's going on with the numbering? That's not how crosswords work!
Click to expand...

Don't blame me, I didn't create it. I'll pass on your complaints though :p
 
R

Roberto Larcos

Member
mo60 said:
My prediction is a bit lower compared to other posters so far since I don't expect the tories to continue to poll were there are as the campaign goes on.
Click to expand...

Mr. Sam said:
I've so much envy for the old lads you see sitting at the bar doing a big book of crosswords.



Conservative Party seats: 369
Green Party seats: 2
Labour seats: 181
Lib Dem seats: 23
SNP seats: 55
Plaid Cymru seats: 3
UKIP seats: 0
Independently held seats: 0
Seats held by other parties: 17

BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland? No.
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland? Yes.
More Conservative seats than Labour in Wales? Yes.
The Portillo award goes to..? Clive Lewis
First resignation of the night? None on the night.
How many party leaders will resign? One.
Seat for Nuttall? No.
Margin of victory by seats: 188
Margin of victory by votes: If I have to give a number, uh... 3 million?

Please note - this is all off the top of my head or, more accurately, out of my arse. No actual analysis has gone into this.
Click to expand...

Your predictions have been added. You can view others' predictions in the excel spreadsheet I've made.

Quote to reveal.

 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Man, I might have to edit my prediction. The figures coming in from Scotland are just insane. It looks like Scotland is Ulster-ifying - pro/anti-independence has become the prevailing issue, and the "unionist" vote is beginning to reflect that by consolidating about whichever unionist party is doing the best in that constituency instead of being split between multiple parties. In practical terms, this means the Conservatives, with Labour being abandoned as pro-Indy Labour move to the SNP and pro-Union Labour move to the Conservatives. The other big shift is pro-Brexit SNP voters (about a third of the SNP's vote) are showing significant movement towards the Conservatives. Panelbase is showing the Conservatives picking up 12 seats (12!! in Scotland!!), including Angus Robertson losing his seat!
 
R

Roberto Larcos

Member
Crab said:
Man, I might have to edit my prediction. The figures coming in from Scotland are just insane. It looks like Scotland is Ulster-ifying - pro/anti-independence has become the prevailing issue, and the "unionist" vote is beginning to reflect that by consolidating about whichever unionist party is doing the best in that constituency instead of being split between multiple parties. In practical terms, this means the Conservatives, with Labour being abandoned as pro-Indy Labour move to the SNP and pro-Union Labour move to the Conservatives. The other big shift is pro-Brexit SNP voters (about a third of the SNP's vote) are showing significant movement towards the Conservatives. Panelbase is showing the Conservatives picking up 12 seats (12!! in Scotland!!), including Angus Robertson losing his seat!
Click to expand...

Feel free to change it. I won't be locking in predictions until polls close. I'll probably keep old predictions up though, if only to see how predictions evolved over the weeks leading up to 08/07.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I was not selected as a candidate. Quite like the woman who was, though, so no disappointment. Also means I can continue shitposting.
 
PJV3

PJV3

Member
It's good to see Sadiq has finally told the people behind the bushy bridge that he's giving them no more money.
 
M

Moosichu

Member
PJV3 said:
Yeah, I don't know how some people aren't in deep shit over it, the whole thing is corrupt.
Click to expand...

BoJo should really not be anywhere near government, and for some reason I feel like in another climate he would have lost his public credibility. But hey, he's a man of the people!
 
C

CCS

Banned
Not sure what this tells you about a) my family and b) the Lib Dems, but me and my mum went to vote in the council elections today and the Lib Dem person outside was one of my mum's very good friends, and we're going to a garden party with the candidate this weekend :p
 
S

slider

Member
CCS said:
Not sure what this tells you about a) my family and b) the Lib Dems, but me and my mum went to vote in the council elections today and the Lib Dem person outside was one of my mum's very good friends, and we're going to a garden party with the candidate this weekend :p
Click to expand...

Makes me think that you might live in a picture postcard village. But now I'm thinking it's like a Hot Fuzz-esque existence.

I don't know. I'm tired.
 
C

CCS

Banned
slider said:
Makes me think that you might live in a picture postcard village. But now I'm thinking it's like a Hot Fuzz-esque existence.

I don't know. I'm tired.
Click to expand...

I actually live in a deep blue, very posh commuter town. The sort of place where everyone is either a champagne socialist or just a champagner :p
 
U

Uzzy

Member
Mr. Sam said:
I mean, politicians are people too. They have friends. And garden parties.
Click to expand...

Speaking of politicians being people, I found this graph showing the main former occupations held by MPs since the 1950s.

C-5pQcWXUAE6miZ.jpg:large
Click to expand...

Found it quite interesting to see the decline in manual workers amongst Labour MPs coincide with the increase in career politicians. Quite a sharp decrease in barristers too, which I'm a little surprised about.
 
P

Protome

Member
Number45 said:
Not mayoral but I've been trying to find out about my local constituents today - it's not that easy it seems!
Click to expand...

Yeah seriously. For the council elections yesterday I had received leaflets from a Lib Dem candidate, SNP candidate and Tory candidate so they were all I really knew about.
Apparently there were a couple of Labour candidates, a Green and a couple of independents who I knew very little about because it was near impossible to find their stances online (other than party wide ones, which aren't super useful for local council elections...)

Generally I hate the glut of leaflets I receive leading to an election here because it's easier to find that stuff online but apparently for Council elections nobody puts the effort in!

I wonder if nobody votes in council elections because they don't feel informed on the choices or if nobody puts effort informing voters because they don't vote in council elections.
 
R

Rodhull

Member
Finding it really strange how the SNP increased their councillors marginally from 425 to 431 but the BBC is claiming they lost councillors due to a theoretical result from 2012 they created had the current boundaries been in place. Seems really bizarre and I can't think of any time that's happened before.
 
S

Spoiled Milk

Banned
hello, this thread is dead but I am reviving it.

can someone explain to me why Theresa May held snap elections despite having complete control of Parliament? Is this to get out of invoking Brexit?
 
M

Mr. Sam

Member
Spoiled Milk said:
hello, this thread is dead but I am reviving it.

can someone explain to me why Theresa May held snap elections despite having complete control of Parliament? Is this to get out of invoking Brexit?
Click to expand...

She didn't have complete control of Parliament, she had a slim majority of twelve seats - i.e. if twelve of her bankbenchers were feeling cranky on the particular day of a vote, they could seriously fuck her shit up. This election is an attempt to gain a larger majority, which - in spite of some spectacular self-sabotage - she will probably achieve. She already invoked Article 50, i.e. Britain's intention to leave the European Union within two years, and is very happy to carry out Brexit.
 
Jezbollah

Jezbollah

Member
Spoiled Milk said:
hello, this thread is dead but I am reviving it.

can someone explain to me why Theresa May held snap elections despite having complete control of Parliament? Is this to get out of invoking Brexit?
Click to expand...

The thread is dead because the last Parliament is dead ;)

Mr Sam explained it in a nutshell. She basically wants to have a bigger majority to not have to worry about troublesome backbenchers, who have arguably caused more opposition than Corbyn + co have done for a number of times within the last year.
 
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