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|OT| French Presidential Elect 2017 - La France est toujours insoumise; Le Pen loses

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B

Blackpuppy

Member
I know it's the national anthem, but it's just how energized they look and sound when singing it. The lyrics just seem to take on a new meaning when I see them stand up, heads high, knowing what they stand for deep inside.

My family-in-law is from the Vosges and so my holidays are spent deep in FN country. Hearing "bougnoules" is not uncommon. Luckily my wife's family are pretty cool.
 
S

Slaythe

Member
There's also a lot of people that don't want to accept more migrants but are fine with those already there and well integrated.

Just like wanting control at the borders to check who gets in isn't "xenophobic" by default, it's just checking who gets in to avoid the illegal aliens.

The FN has become too large to generalize their voters. We can thank Fillon for that, playing dangerously close to them.

I think most French people would show no tolerance towards immigrants that break the law. That's not exactly racism either.

They do have racists, homophobes and anti-Semitic assholes, but it's hard to say how much they represent.

That's why I said lepen getting over 40% is an unprecedented disaster. The overlap between the angry people and the fascists is blurred.

The only positive thing I can see out of this, is that the assholes become a minority if the FN gets more people on board...

Or maybe I'm delusionnal and they're all assholes. I didn't expect America to be on board with Trump yet here we are. Maybe I'm too naive. :/

Basically are they more like Florian philippot, or like Gilbert collar ( literally French Steve bannon) is what I wonder.

The old people are definitely the latter, But lepen somehow got ahead within the youth so they are a big part.

But I refuse to believe Half of my country is full of hate and intolerance. I'd rather believe she's a con artist and captured the anger and fear of people while masking the roots of her party.
 
S

Sinsem

Member
Slaythe said:
The only positive thing I can see out of this, is that the assholes become a minority if the FN gets more people on board...
Click to expand...

The worst ones are still the ones in charge though, so this is not necessarily good news.
Philippot, they show on TV for their image, but there are plenty of Collard doing their thing in the shadows.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
I find it surprising that MLP dropped her anti-Euro stance to get Dupont-Aignan in, even if it's obviously a facade. I hope it won't make too many undecided people switch to her side.
It also should have raised some negative reactions in her own ranks, what with all the strong positioning against it "Euro is the cause of all our troubles", but I guess they'll always side with her whatever happens.
 
G

GhostTrick

Banned
Slaythe said:
There's also a lot of people that don't want to accept more migrants but are fine with those already there and well integrated.

Just like wanting control at the borders to check who gets in isn't "xenophobic" by default, it's just checking who gets in to avoid the illegal aliens.

The FN has become too large to generalize their voters. We can thank Fillon for that, playing dangerously close to them.

I think most French people would show no tolerance towards immigrants that break the law. That's not exactly racism either.

They do have racists, homophobes and anti-Semitic assholes, but it's hard to say how much they represent.

That's why I said lepen getting over 40% is an unprecedented disaster. The overlap between the angry people and the fascists is blurred.

The only positive thing I can see out of this, is that the assholes become a minority if the FN gets more people on board...

Or maybe I'm delusionnal and they're all assholes. I didn't expect America to be on board with Trump yet here we are. Maybe I'm too naive. :/

Basically are they more like Florian philippot, or like Gilbert collar ( literally French Steve bannon) is what I wonder.

The old people are definitely the latter, But lepen somehow got ahead within the youth so they are a big part.

But I refuse to believe Half of my country is full of hate and intolerance. I'd rather believe she's a con artist and captured the anger and fear of people while masking the roots of her party.
Click to expand...




A lot, and that's already too much.
Also, you know what is racism ? Being called an immigrant when you're born French.
The thing is, a lot of these voters are asking French people to get back to their country because of their skin color. I'm not even speaking about people who became French, but even worse, people born French, sometimes from French parent.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kbfY1G7B4Q

This basically sums up a lot about a lot of these voters.
 
M

Mimosa97

Member
I'm in a different situation than you ie family that votes FN. I don't have anyone in my immediate circle who votes FN but I have a few distant cousins who vote FN and all of them have two things in common : they either grew up in la banlieue or they are unemployed.

I've never heard any of them use racist words to talk about immigrants but they pretty much vote FN because of the insecurity and violence they witnessed while growing up or because they haven't been able to find a job and are struggling to keep their head afloat.

I know I have a female cousin who votes FN even though she's a lawyer and is doing pretty well in life just because she spent her teenage years getting harrassed in the RER while commuting from Paris and back to her parents. She's basically a one-issue voter. I kinda understand where she's coming from and it wouldn't feel right for me to come and dismiss her suffering and admonish her for wanting to vote FN (I mean I haven't talked to her in a year so maybe she changed her mind since then who knows ...).
 
E

EmiPrime

Member
My family are from a banlieue, my grandfather is pretty damn racist and can't watch Taubira on television without growling and saying "j'aime pas cette la", considers De Gaulle a traitor etc but even he won't vote FN because he thinks ditching the Euro and leaving the EU is stupid.

I wonder how many people there are like him: too working class to ever get behind a mainstream right wing party, too racist for the modern PS and sensible enough to not have nostalgia for a pre-globalisation past that the nationalists are selling given he spent half his life without indoor plumbing.
 
G

Golden_Pigeon

Banned
Mimosa97 said:
I'm in a different situation than you ie family that votes FN. I don't have anyone in my immediate circle who votes FN but I have a few distant cousins who vote FN and all of them have two things in common : they either grew up in la banlieue or they are unemployed.

I've never heard any of them use racist words to talk about immigrants but they pretty much vote FN because of the insecurity and violence they witnessed while growing up or because they haven't been able to find a job and are struggling to keep their head afloat.

I know I have a female cousin who votes FN even though she's a lawyer and is doing pretty well in life just because she spent her teenage years getting harrassed in the RER while commuting from Paris and back to her parents. She's basically a one-issue voter. I kinda understand where she's coming from and it wouldn't feel right for me to come and dismiss her suffering and admonish her for wanting to vote FN (I mean I haven't talked to her in a year so maybe she changed her mind since then who knows ...).
Click to expand...

If you don't confront her about the stupidity of punishing everybody of the same color skin of her aggressors, who will ?

You have different responses possible to insecurity, and establishing an ethnical democracy is not the good one. It must be fought one voter at the time. I don't know anybody who vote FN because all my relatives are "immigrants" (even if there for 2,3 or 4 generations...)

Even if someone want security and just don't care about making others lives miserables, bringing FN in power would do the exact opposite of that. Do you really believe the application of FN program's will go without a fight ? It could mean civil war, and Le Pen would totally try to trigger that. I know i am pretty ready to fight in order to keep my citizenship.
 
C

Coffinhal

Member
"but it's hard to say how much they represent."

Not really, social sciences have tools that can measure this :

GhostTrick said:
That's a bit unfair though. I dont believe that 80% of her voters are racists.
Click to expand...

Actually that's 82% if you ask them directly the question :

La seconde question, posée depuis 1999, demande à la personne interrogée d'évaluer son propre degré de racisme : « En ce qui vous concerne personnellement, diriez-vous de vous-même que vous êtes plutôt raciste, un peu raciste, pas très raciste, pas raciste du tout ? ». Cet indicateur s'avère clivant, et étroitement corrélé aux échelles d'ethnocentrisme, d'antisémitisme et d'aversion à l'islam. La frontière passe entre ceux qui se disent plutôt ou un peu racistes et les autres, les premiers donnant systématiquement les réponses les plus intolérantes. Sur la période étudiée, leur proportion moyenne tourne autour de 28 %. Mais elle bat tous les records chez les proches du FN : 82% se disent racistes (dont 43% « plutôt » et 39% « un peu »), alors que chez les proches des autres partis la proportion tombe à 25% et 16% chez les proches des partis de gauche Si elle baisse de 5 points depuis 2011, elle reste à un niveau exceptionnellement élevé : 80% (contre 26% chez les proches des autres partis). La sympathie pour le FN est encore aujourd'hui le fait d'une très large majorité de « racistes » assumés, se revendiquant comme tels.
Click to expand...

On other items (such as ethnocentrism) it's around the same % :

capture_d_ecran_2015-12-03_20.48.23.png


Les sympathisants du FN battent tous les records d'intolérance à l'Autre. Si on répartit les personnes interrogées en quatre groupes par niveau croissant d'ethnocentrisme, de « très faible » (scores 0-1) à « très fort » (6-10),. 87% d'entre eux sont très ethnocentristes, contre 48% des proches des partis de droite, 33 % des proches des partis du centre, et 18% des proches des partis de gauche (Figure 1). Inversement, aucun proche du FN n'a sur notre échelle un score inférieur à 2 (contre respectivement 3% des sympathisants de droite, 11% des centristes et un quart des sympathisants de gauche). Surtout, si on regarde l'évolution dans le temps des sympathisants FN, la proportion des « très racistes » n'y a pas varié depuis 2011, stabilisée à 87%.
Click to expand...

Source of the research

Another interesting chart from the many interesting ones that are in the research :

capture_d_ecran_2015-12-03_20.48.49.png
 
G

Golden_Pigeon

Banned
Very interesting research and figures. It's surprising that antisemitism is still so high since all Marine moves to try to appeal to jewish audience. I guess "quand on chasse le naturel, il revient au galop" ;)
 
K

Kuldar

Member
Golden_Pigeon said:
Very interesting research and figures. It's surprising that antisemitism is still so high since all Marine moves to try to appeal to jewish audience. I guess "quand on chasse le naturel, il revient au galop" ;)
Click to expand...
They just hide it because hating muslims is more popular for the moment and that there is islamophobia among Jewish people. But the FN is in line with the antisemitism deeply rooted in France.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
You Know Nothing said:
Looking at this, I've never been more glad that France doesn't have an electoral college.
Click to expand...

Definitely. Although it's interesting to see that the tie-breakers are the oversea regions, which are usually mostly ignored during the campaign. If the candidates were aware of such a situation beforehand, they would obviously be more focused on those, just like the US candidates fight for the "swing states".
 
benjipwns

benjipwns

Banned
The problem is that doesn't account for the inherent narrowing in a system that would be dominated by two or three parties long beforehand. You wouldn't have six parties getting ~5% or more of the vote and four grabbing a fifth of the vote. (Though the Whigs in 1836 intentionally ran four different candidates in different areas of the country where they'd be strongest in hopes of denying a majority to the Democrats and then picking a final candidate later.)

Plus we all know what a French electoral college result would actually look like:
C-H5hFcW0AAcrYX.jpg:large
 
C

Coffinhal

Member
Palette Swap said:
BVA and Odoxa have 59/41 in polls done on Wednesday-Friday, that's not a very reassuring dynamic tbh.
Click to expand...

A pollster analysed the history of second round polls to determine the chances of Le Pen
https://twitter.com/mathieugallard/status/858613550683754496
"very reliable" "Le Pen's dynamics is too slow and too weak"

I agree with him, 20 points ahead is still very solid and the fear of Le Pen winning has been on the front page of every newspaper this week, and this will probably continue

C-px431XgAAy1Hr.jpg:small


Biggest risk is that LR disappears in the législatives with Macron taking the center-right leaders in his majority (there are talks about Bertrand/Lemaire as potential PM) and at the same time Le Pen attracting voters that see a chance at having a "real" right-wing party (Macron being too "liberal / democrat") being the top contestant of his policy, or even having a chance at being a majority. So a split of LR between Macron and Le Pen that would leave it in the current PS state.

If that doesn't happen at the législatives, that's going to be a long-term trend imho. It'll leave the left a real space to build a third force that is progresist but rejects neoliberalism and any kind of xenophobia. As always, the left's main question will be its unity. But with the neoliberal part of the PS leaving the ship for Macron's, there's never been such an opportunity to build a force (given both Platform and electorate are here)
 
A

addik

Member
Ugh, some of my fellow countrymen (Filipinos) who follow the news say they support Le Pen.

Between that, the country's love for Duterte, and being the Asian minority most supportive of Trump, what is up with us?

Granted, so many of my other friends hate her, but still...
 
A

Apzu

Member
Alx said:
The Economist : what if France had an electoral college ?

20170429_WOC973_1.png
Click to expand...
They are pushing so hard to make a parallel with the US that they basically have to use a fictional french electoral system now. Unless you were trying to show why the US should change its voting system, there's no point in doing this sort of comparison. "But but but she could win if they used an electoral college", yeah and she could have won if the french decided to do a system that guaranteed that the new president should always be from a different gender than the previous one. I mean, if you're going to ignore reality and just report on whatever you feel like, why stop at the electoral college?
 
M

Mimosa97

Member
http://www.bfmtv.com/politique/mari...-abrogation-du-mariage-pour-tous-1154125.html

When you realize that Marine has been avoiding questions about same sex mariage for some time now and has been kinda vague about her position on the current law, it doesn't feel like a smart move from her niece. We know she represents the hardcore socially conservative part of the party but still ...

Also this is the first I've seen her in high heels. Feels like she's slowly moving from her old style or it could mean nothing. I don't know.
 
A

Addi

Member
Coffinhal said:
I agree with him, 20 points ahead is still very solid and the fear of Le Pen winning has been on the front page of every newspaper this week, and this will probably continue
Click to expand...

Yeah, there's only a week left, if Marine would have any chance, she would have needed a momentum where she was past 45% this weekend. Anyway, the most calming way of thinking about it is not in percentages, but in actual numbers of voters. There's 47 million voters, if you reduce the turnout to 70% to take into account people that think "they are both as bad", the winner needs more than 16,5 million votes. She did around 7,5 mill in the first round. Where will she find over 9 million new voters? Supporters of other parties will in majority vote for Macron.

I have to say though, I'm staying away from social media. FN defence force is going all in and it's absolutely vile. All the shit Macron is getting is insane.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
Apzu said:
They are pushing so hard to make a parallel with the US that they basically have to use a fictional french electoral system now. Unless you were trying to show why the US should change its voting system, there's no point in doing this sort of comparison.
Click to expand...

That's actually how I read the article, but then of course I have the point of view of a non-American. It didn't sound like criticism of the French system at all.
And I think it's interesting to do comparisons of political systems by adapting them to different countries, even in a fictional scenario. France is quite unique for having a very centralized organization, but it's interesting to see the weight of the different regions if it was more federalized, like most of its neighbours.
 
C

Coffinhal

Member
We should stop calling her "Marine"

1) It's disrepectful towards women as always in politics (Ségolène, Hillary, Angela, Martine...). Men are not called by their first name.

2) It's the way she wants to be called in the de-demonizing process (if you call her by her first name then you're either a close friend or family, she can't be that dangerous). Don't make it easier for her, her supporters calling their idol by her name is already painful enough. Besides her surname has a meaning like no other and we should let her remember her beloved lineage.
 
K

Kuldar

Member
Coffinhal said:
We should stop calling her "Marine"

1) It's disrepectful towards women as always in politics (Ségolène, Hillary, Angela, Martine...). Men are not called by their first name.

2) It's the way she wants to be called in the de-demonizing process (if you call her by her first name then you're either a close friend or family, she can't be that dangerous). Don't make it easier for her, her supporters calling their idol by her name is already painful enough. Besides her surname has a meaning like no other and we should let her remember her beloved lineage.
Click to expand...
And it's actually not her real first name.
 
A

Addi

Member
Coffinhal said:
We should stop calling her "Marine"

1) It's disrepectful towards women as always in politics (Ségolène, Hillary, Angela, Martine...). Men are not called by their first name.

2) It's the way she wants to be called in the de-demonizing process (if you call her by her first name then you're either a close friend or family, she can't be that dangerous). Don't make it easier for her, her supporters calling their idol by her name is already painful enough. Besides her surname has a meaning like no other and we should let her remember her beloved lineage.
Click to expand...

Fair enough. I know that I switch between Marine and Le Pen without thinking about it. It's interesting, I would never say Angela, always Merkel, but always Hillary and never Clinton. She campaigned with a big H logo, so I guess they also wanted it to be "Hillary" to separate her from her husband, to make her independent from him in the same way Le Pen wants to remove bad connotations with her father. I guess Saddam is the only male politician I would automatically call by his first name.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
For some reason using first names for males works with dictators, Saddam, Bachar,
Napoléon :D
.
But it is indeed unfair to have it as the default for female candidates. Not sure it's a general rule though, you wouldn't say "Christine" for Boutin, "Nathalie" for NKM or "Michèle" for Alliot-Marie (MAM). Maybe "Roselyne" for Bachelot.
 
K

Kilrogg

paid requisite penance
addik said:
Ugh, some of my fellow countrymen (Filipinos) who follow the news say they support Le Pen.

Between that, the country's love for Duterte, and being the Asian minority most supportive of Trump, what is up with us?

Granted, so many of my other friends hate her, but still...
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm sad for you, but I can't say I'm surprised. If a country is endorsing an asshole like Duterte, it stands to reason it'll be fine with someone like Le Pen too.

Also, agreed @Coffinhal. I hated when people - including myself when I wasn't watching my mouth - called Ségolène Royal "Ségolène", but it feels even more wrong and insidious with Le Pen. It's like calling Macron "Manu" because he's young or something. Too disrespectful and intimate at the same time.
 
S

SporeCrawler

Member
Slaythe said:
There's also a lot of people that don't want to accept more migrants but are fine with those already there and well integrated.

Just like wanting control at the borders to check who gets in isn't "xenophobic" by default, it's just checking who gets in to avoid the illegal aliens.

The FN has become too large to generalize their voters. We can thank Fillon for that, playing dangerously close to them.

I think most French people would show no tolerance towards immigrants that break the law. That's not exactly racism either.

They do have racists, homophobes and anti-Semitic assholes, but it's hard to say how much they represent.

That's why I said lepen getting over 40% is an unprecedented disaster. The overlap between the angry people and the fascists is blurred.

The only positive thing I can see out of this, is that the assholes become a minority if the FN gets more people on board...

Or maybe I'm delusionnal and they're all assholes. I didn't expect America to be on board with Trump yet here we are. Maybe I'm too naive. :/

Basically are they more like Florian philippot, or like Gilbert collar ( literally French Steve bannon) is what I wonder.

The old people are definitely the latter, But lepen somehow got ahead within the youth so they are a big part.

But I refuse to believe Half of my country is full of hate and intolerance. I'd rather believe she's a con artist and captured the anger and fear of people while masking the roots of her party.
Click to expand...
40% is really dangerous. i thought macron would win 70:30
 
K

Khaz

Member
Marine Le Pen herself wants to be called Marine, to hide some of the baggage that comes with the surname. "Marine présidente", "rassemblement bleu marine", etc. That's her brand.

She houls be called by her full name, if only to have people remember where she comes from.
 
E

EmiPrime

Member
SporeCrawler said:
40% is really dangerous. i thought macron would win 70:30
Click to expand...

So did I. I thought she would gain some of NDA's voters as well as the hardcore Catholic Manif pour tous fuckheads that voted Fillon and turnout would increase slightly from the first round. 60-40 is embarrassing.
 
A

Addi

Member
Alx said:
For some reason using first names for males works with dictators, Saddam, Bachar,
Napoléon :D
.
But it is indeed unfair to have it as the default for female candidates. Not sure it's a general rule though, you wouldn't say "Christine" for Boutin, "Nathalie" for NKM or "Michèle" for Alliot-Marie (MAM). Maybe "Roselyne" for Bachelot.
Click to expand...

Right, might be something with unusual names too. George or François could be a lot of people.
 
Silent Chief

Silent Chief

Member
Addi said:
Fair enough. I know that I switch between Marine and Le Pen without thinking about it. It's interesting, I would never say Angela, always Merkel, but always Hillary and never Clinton. She campaigned with a big H logo, so I guess they also wanted it to be "Hillary" to separate her from her husband, to make her independent from him in the same way Le Pen wants to remove bad connotations with her father. I guess Saddam is the only male politician I would automatically call by his first name.
Click to expand...

For Hillary Clinton, it was to distinguish her from her husband, just like George W. Bush was often called Dubbya. For Marine Le pen, I think it also originated with her father being active in politics at the same time as her. I don't see this happening with Merkel. I hear Justin a lot more than I hear Trudeau as well.

For a time, Trump was known as "The Donald" because that's what his first? wife called him.
 
S

SporeCrawler

Member
EmiPrime said:
So did I. I thought she would gain some of NDA's voters as well as the hardcore Catholic Manif pour tous fuckheads that voted Fillon and turnout would increase slightly from the first round. 60-40 is embarrassing.
Click to expand...

no its dangerous... let there be a little more shift towards le pen because there was an act of terrorism or something. and let some of the left just abstain because they refuse both candidates.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
EmiPrime said:
So did I. I thought she would gain some of NDA's voters as well as the hardcore Catholic Manif pour tous fuckheads that voted Fillon and turnout would increase slightly from the first round. 60-40 is embarrassing.
Click to expand...

It's embarrassing but hardly a surprise when it's been in the polls for the last few months. And still better/safer than the 55/45 ratio of a face-off with Fillon.
At this point I'll even be happy with a 60/40 result, since with the current trend the gap may be smaller in a week.
 
A

Addi

Member
Silent Chief said:
For Hillary Clinton, it was to distinguish her from her husband, just like George W. Bush was often called Dubbya. For Marine Le pen, I think it also originated with her father being active in politics at the same time as her. I don't see this happening with Merkel. I hear Justin a lot more than I hear Trudeau as well.

For a time, Trump was known as "The Donald" because that's what his first? wife called him.
Click to expand...

That's where The Donald is from? I saw it as an alt-right thing to make him seem alpha as fuck or something. "The Don".

SporeCrawler said:
no its dangerous... let there be a little more shift towards le pen because there was an act of terrorism or something. and let some of the left just abstain because they refuse both candidates.
Click to expand...

I don't think she will win, but higher numbers for her has the effect the Russians want. I'm not saying the FN's popularity is because of Russia, but that it's also what they wanted to achieve in the US. Not necessarily to make Trump win, but to split the country to make it ungovernable, to create a mistrust towards the governing elite.
 
A

Ac30

Member
Alx said:
It's embarrassing but hardly a surprise when it's been in the polls for the last few months. And still better/safer than the 55/45 ratio of a face-off with Fillon.
At this point I'll even be happy with a 60/40 result, since with the current trend the gap may be smaller in a week.
Click to expand...

I'm assuming there won't be any polls published today or on labour day? I'm worried about the trend we've been seeing, and now with DLF joining her...
 
A

Addi

Member
Ac30 said:
I'm assuming there won't be any polls published today or on labour day? I'm worried about the trend we've been seeing, and now with DLF joining her...
Click to expand...

Speaking of labour day, I totally want a clusterfuck like this to happen again:

wqG6PDCl.jpg
 
H

harriet the spy

Member
Coffinhal said:
We should stop calling her "Marine"

1) It's disrepectful towards women as always in politics (Ségolène, Hillary, Angela, Martine...). Men are not called by their first name.

2) It's the way she wants to be called in the de-demonizing process (if you call her by her first name then you're either a close friend or family, she can't be that dangerous). Don't make it easier for her, her supporters calling their idol by her name is already painful enough. Besides her surname has a meaning like no other and we should let her remember her beloved lineage.
Click to expand...
Yes. Thank you.
 
Alx

Alx

Member
I don't even understand Le Pen's "plan" after she backpedaled on the Euro. She's suggesting two currencies, a new Franc for the population and Euro for international trades, isn't that the worst of both worlds ? People would suffer from inflation, but you'd have no benefit for exports...

Ac30 said:
I'm assuming there won't be any polls published today or on labour day? I'm worried about the trend we've been seeing, and now with DLF joining her...
Click to expand...

Probably not, the rolling polls don't do week-ends, not sure about labour day though. Sometimes you have specific polls done during the week-ends.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
SporeCrawler said:
40% is really dangerous. i thought macron would win 70:30
Click to expand...

I don't think anyone has been up on Le Pen 70-30 in any polls. Macron did the best (I think?) with around 60-65 before the first round.

Don't want to jinx anything, but really not sure how Le Pen can make up 18-20 points in a week.
 
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