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[golem.de with Shawn Layden] Sony bets on real PS 5 instead of console revolution
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Yautja_Warrior
Member
Console optimization would make up for some short comings too though, as consoles generally punch above their weight when it comes to their actual performance vs the spec on paper.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
Doh, yes 384 bit bus is what I meant.
Still, my point remains it's the largest bus size on a console ever and is unlikely to be exceeded going forwards, as it has serious implications on die-size as well as limitations for future die shrinks.
Well there are two options really... either (i) wait for an increase in GDDR6 chip densities (e.g. how PS4 ended up with 8GB GDDR5)... or (ii) use HBM which is designed for a much wider bus size, due to the stacks being "on-chip" (i.e. via interposer).
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
There's Ryzen Mobile and Ryzen Mobile Pro, not sure what the latter means as there's no details about it.
This roadmap isn't making it any easier either, need more news everything is wait and see.
Well.. "Ryzen" is a brand of desktop CPUs based on the AMD "Zen" architecture.
If you're looking for anything console related on a "Ryzen" roadmap, you're looking in the wrong place.
PS5/XBN CPUs will be custom Zen-based CPUs, likely based on one the "Ryzen mobile/mobile Pro" configurations, but not exactly.
forknknife
Banned
PS4 pro only reason for existing was to push 4K. Once everyone has 4K Tvs in a couple of years is when we will start hearing about PS5.
There, said my piece.
There, said my piece.
Shin
Banned
Yeah I figured that part out, the density isn't changing much from GDDR5x unfortunately.
One could question as to why even call it GDDR6 as even the bandwidth increase isn't much.
Then there's delta color compression that keeps improving which increases efficiency and requiring less resources.
There's Ryzen Mobile and Ryzen Mobile Pro, not sure what the latter means as there's no details about it.
This roadmap isn't making it any easier either, need more news everything is wait and see.
Per AMD themselves:
Ryzen Mobile:
http://ir.amd.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=74093&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=2273465
Ryzen Mobile Pro:
http://www.pcworld.com/article/3197...ff-with-the-new-ryzen-pro-not-far-behind.html
dr_rus
Member
Projected frequencies ranges are different between GDDR5X and GDDR6. They do overlap right now but G6 will eventually be significantly faster.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
Well, that's how the the product life-cycle works. Throughout the life of GDDR5 SDRAM technology we've gone from 1Gb chips to 8Gb chip densities.
GDDR6 will start out being manufactured on a 21nm process in 8Gb chips, so will still have plenty of room for future shrinks to smaller process nodes to see larger chip densities. The question, as it relates to next-gen consoles is one of timing... as it's unlikely more than 16GB of GDDR6 will be possible for consoles by 2019/20.
Samsung's low power HBM, although expensive in relative terms, may offer the superior solution; certainly in terms of RAM capacity as well as bandwidth.
Darklor01
Might need to stop sniffing glue
Another reason was that Sony really needed console with a more power to play with PSVR better IMO. I don't have one, but enough people have said using PSVR with a PS4 Pro is night and day difference better than using it with base PS4.
Apparition
Member
MS tried to do an Xbox 360 subscription model but it didn't work. The price markup was too high and it came too late. I wonder why they, or others, haven't started another program with this gen.
Shin
Banned
If shit hits the fan they could always go clam-shell like the OG PS4 without widening the bus. That would still keep it at 384-bit, but 24Gb of total system memory.
We'll see...
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
I'm pretty sure they'd rather stick with a 256-bit bus and go clamshell with 16GB of GDDR6, unless their GPU design really needed that 768GB/s bandwidth... in which case HBM would be the preferred solution regardless of cost hit.
Shin
Banned
If they want to ensure $399 then that would make sense as they could spend the money boosting the GPU/CPU further.
In the here and now that would put it along side a GTX 1080Ti, though games aren't made from the ground up with that GPU in mind, given that PS5 would have to last 10 years not sure if it will be sufficient.
Wish it was 2019 already...
oldergamer
Member
By the time sony is ready for a new console refresh ( another 2 or 3 years ) this hardware will be obsolete. PS4 pro is just over a half year old Nobody should expect PS5 anytime soon. let's be realistic guys.
I agree with this post.
Foldedpencil
Banned
Maybe, it all depends on how compelling the new hardware/software is. I waited till late "New" 3ds, because I knew that Nintendo always refreshes this handhelds. But I bought a switch on launch because it looked awesome and I didn't want to play BOTW on my Wii U. With half step consoles, remasters, and price drops, the AAA publishers seem to actively encourage consumers to take a "wait and see" approach. I thought I would buy a PS4 when they had a price drop, but now they have the pro, which makes me feel stupid buying a regular PS4. If ps5 is backwards compatible, or will have remasters, then I might just skip this console generation and play any multiplats on my PC.
geordiemp
Member
The issue your missing is that outside VR, anything over 4 TF is a hard sell anyway on console as even on a 50 inch 4K tv you cant see anything over 1800c at normal seating distance. At 8 Ft I can just about make out 1440p os better than 1080, after that, nope. LOD and Pop in become more important IMO.
I believe for living room consoles we are already at a saturation point of I cant see benefits anymore, so 8TF is fine and 12 TF will be put your face on the TV and pause the game. The only reason for high > 8 TF will be VR IMO.
However, the CPU at 300 % and 60 FPS on games like RDR2 for any big AAA game will sell consoles, and Ps4 / xbox will play those games at 30 FPS.
Also more enemies, smarter AI, more alive worlds.
gundamkyoukai
Member
8TF is not find .
You might not be able to see the benefits but there are there in many ways .
Plus TVs are so cheap now that the bigger your 4K tv is the easier it is to see stuff .
A 8TF consoles won't be able to push more effects , AF , AA, certain physics stuff , better models \ looking NPC etc etc etc than we have now.
Cause all the power is will be used up for just 4K.
I tend to think 2160c is a pretty good sweet spot to aim for to avoid the softness and visible aliasing that creep in at 1800 or 1440. It's clearly possible to target this resolution on the Pro with a lot of work, (see HZD!) and it's almost certainly easier on the X.
... but a GPU's computational throughput is useful for more than just increased resolution.
The LOD / pop-in you cite occurs because a game can't render sufficiently detailed content past a limited distance. More horsepower makes a difference here. Ditto for sophisticated lighting, material rendering, reflections, and shadows. Cloth and other physics simulations like fluid dynamics. The list is pretty endless.
I know I'm looking forward to the day when a developer can afford to address self-clipping problems because they have so much computational capability at their fingertips.
GermanZepp
Member
the people thinking PS5 will have more than 16gb = crazy talk, to me.
C'mon, how many PC games "recommended requirements" exceed 16gb of ram?
Fast edit: that's not counting ram needed for run the OS.
C'mon, how many PC games "recommended requirements" exceed 16gb of ram?
Fast edit: that's not counting ram needed for run the OS.
geordiemp
Member
But I get enough resolution with 4 TF, 8 TF would be sufficient as a min to add LOD etc, 12 more than enough.
I think they need to address bandwidth and load times somehow as a bigger priority as well as the no1 frame rate.. And not carts lol
mckmas8808
Mckmaster uses MasterCard to buy Slave drives
16 GBs of RAM would be extremely disappointing! Everything else there sounds good.
People said the samething about 8GBs of RAM before the PS4 was revealed.
Shin
Banned
Need to remember that unlike the PC's that has VRAM & RAM, consoles share 1 pool of unified memory.
16 GBs of RAM would be extremely disappointing! Everything else there sounds good.
People said the samething about 8GBs of RAM before the PS4 was revealed.
Why would 16GB be disappointing?
Thats double what they launched with in 2013.
gundamkyoukai
Member
Double not saying much if we going by pass RAM jumps .
Of course i don't expect the usual jump since we getting to the point where it to much or becoming to expensive .
Also the OS for this gen is 3GB and i can see it going up again so 16 would be disappointing .
In 2010-2011, if you said PS4 would have 8GB RAM when it comes out in a few years, people would think you're crazy. 4GB was considered the absolute max as a possibility and 2-3 GB was expected by most.
February 2013, BOOM -- PS4 is announced with 8 GB of GDDR5.
If PS5 comes out November 2020 in North America and Europe, early 2021 everywhere else and has to last at least 6 years, it'll have no less than 32 GB RAM.
February 2013, BOOM -- PS4 is announced with 8 GB of GDDR5.
If PS5 comes out November 2020 in North America and Europe, early 2021 everywhere else and has to last at least 6 years, it'll have no less than 32 GB RAM.
32 hopefully with 4GB slower ram for OS. Although the higher you go the less of an issue it is to take a slice out for the OS - 28GB usable from 32 is a lot better than 5GB usable from 8. But as long as they have to use expensive fast ram I'd like them to not waste it on an OS that doesn't need it
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
Errrrm... if you want all them nice 4k 60fps streaming features then you bet your ass the OS will need a healthy chunk of RAM.
Yautja_Warrior
Member
Maybe wait to see how good 4k textures look on Xbox One X, with only 8-9GB RAM available for games. If they look as good as 4k textures on PC, then 16GB RAM (12-13GB available) would be fine for PS5.
If Xbox One X 4k textures look poor quality, then maybe they should go for 24-32GB RAM in PS5 if they can keep the cost low. I still think 16GB will be what we get next though.
If Xbox One X 4k textures look poor quality, then maybe they should go for 24-32GB RAM in PS5 if they can keep the cost low. I still think 16GB will be what we get next though.
BLAUcopter
Gold Member
So the pro and Xbox x are trash?
This is actually why I think 60fps will be a bigger selling point next gen, at least from the hardware manufacturers' first party titles. I don't see reconstruction techniques going away (in fact I think temporal injection is a better use of resources for getting a 4k image) and improved frame rates would be something that they could use to market an instant, obvious improvement and something that would differentiate it clearly from the PS4 Pro and Xbox One X's goals.
ThoseDeafMutes
Member
You can definitely see the difference in a side-by-side comparison between 1800c and 2160p. The 1800c still looks good, but there is a difference. Frankly, 1440p still looks good too, and hell, gamers were satisfied with 1080p. 1080p still looks fine! Even 900p isn't as horrific as some fanboys would have had you believe in 2014.
Think about it from a marketing perspective, though. Will it be a good look for Sony to pump out first party PS5 titles in 2020 that are targeting lower resolutions than Microsoft's previous-generation titles on Xbox One X from 2017?
I wouldn't assume native 4k on everything certainly, but at minimum they will want to bump to 2160c (PS5) instead of 1800c (PS4P) for demanding titles. That's likely what a lot of XB1X games will be doing too. Third party games can do whatever they want on PS5 obviously, but we will be dealing with cross-gen titles and one of the easiest ways they can upgrade for the new platform is going to be just going for native 4k with some prettier textures, effects and draw distance. Waste of resources? Arguably yes, but we don't expect cross-gen games to take full advantage of the new systems.
Current high end videocards on PC have already broken the 10TF barrier. They will probably have broken then 20TF barrier by the time 2019 comes and goes. 8TF would be an enormous disappointment for a new system.
Shin
Banned
PS4G 18CU 1.84TF 28nm
7970 32CU 4.1TF 28nm
8970 32CU 4.3TF 28nm*
290X 44CU 5.6TF 28nm
FurX 64CU 8.6TF 28nm
R480 36CU 5.8TF 14nm
R580 36CU 6.1TF 14nm
Vega10 64CU 12.5TF 14nm*
Posted it in another thread, we jumped 8.7TF in 3 1/2 years, not that it means shit but it gives and idea and yes bla bla technology is slowing down and yes bla bla you can't compare high-end desktop GPU's with consoles.
Shouldn't be hard for GPU's in 2020 to be above 20TF, 4-6TF less in a console seems fair.
7970 32CU 4.1TF 28nm
8970 32CU 4.3TF 28nm*
290X 44CU 5.6TF 28nm
FurX 64CU 8.6TF 28nm
R480 36CU 5.8TF 14nm
R580 36CU 6.1TF 14nm
Vega10 64CU 12.5TF 14nm*
Posted it in another thread, we jumped 8.7TF in 3 1/2 years, not that it means shit but it gives and idea and yes bla bla technology is slowing down and yes bla bla you can't compare high-end desktop GPU's with consoles.
Shouldn't be hard for GPU's in 2020 to be above 20TF, 4-6TF less in a console seems fair.
GermanZepp
Member
Are you telling me that an AMD gpu (8/10tf) or 1080 equivalent will drop price low enough to be inside a PS5 in 2.5 or 3 years with 24 or 32gb of ram and will be 399?
I would love that, but right now can't see it happening. But, wellp, i don't know nothing about tech and market.
Edit: We all know the 4 to 8 situation ram of the PS4, and always see it as and example to prove a point, i bealive that the kinda "backlash" of the Neo was real. First was like OMG 4.2 tf it's a beast then the presentation and the disappoitment, the same for the scorpio it got Zen and who knows what else, and then reality hits. I mean these are very find machines, but i remember the reading a lot of high hopes in those treads.
selling 60fps to gamers outside of a certain sphere is pretty much the equivalent of attempting to sell 4K
You shouldn't be looking at it in absolutes but in percentages. Consoles will get less than half of what the 250-300 watt flagship GPU will do. It's simply a power thing: half the power half the performance. I think consoles aim for 100-120 watt GPUs, right? And I don't think we're getting a 30 TF GPU by 2020.
Intuition is a notoriously bad guide for how computationally intensive a task will be. If anything it's clear that what seem like incremental expectations for human beings are actually exponential increases in complexity. 12TF will seem quaint and limiting sooner than you imagine, and I expect we'll all find out because 10-12TF seems a likely ballpark figure for 2019, with 12-14TF plausible in 2020. (Edited downward somewhat after re-running some estimates.)
Bandwidth will definitely be a major focal point, almost certainly prioritized over memory increases this time around. Load times are one of the reasons I find another 8x increase in RAM unlikely. It's still hard to beat optical media as a delivery mechanism for sheer cost effective high density storage, so I think you're right there.
Frame rate, though? The most plausible (indeed seemingly inevitable) change there is unlocked frame rates with variable refresh rate displays. Not an ecosystem wide crusade to hit a single magic number, but a less tragic result when you can't hold a steady 30 or 60. Anyone who cares about frame pacing is going to have to accept that the ideal solution involves a new display (unless we're lucky enough to see VRR firmware support for some popular existing models — but I wouldn't count on it.)
Which is why I think that would be the appeal to the hardcore who will analyze every bit of media from the machines and compare them to the mid gen consoles. With a name like PS5, it becomes a much easier sell for the general population because a new numbered PlayStation is easy to comprehend.
I also think that framerates will improve just because devs won't be able to spend the massive amount of time creating assets that would be a clear generational leap over what we have now. It would inflate development time and costs a ton.
I don't think 60fps will be a push because it's what the core wants, rather it'll more be because it's more convienient. VRR support will also mean devs won't be as beholden to hitting a constant 60.
Lots of people got overexcited about a leak from a retail source and misconstrued blue/red pill options as being about Jag vs Zen CPUs, whereas it is now clear it was about how upclocked the Jag would be in the Pro.
Keep expectations realistic is the best way to go, then you can't be disappointed. I reckon Ps5 will come in between 12-15TF, 8 core Ryzen 2 & Navi on a custom Raven Ridge APU with some neat tricks to make it more efficient (such as the ID buffer used in the Pro) and between 24-32GB RAM, most likely GDDR6.
Importantly I think Sony will be looking very closely at consumer response to the X1X price point. While I don't think they'll use a $499 price point, they may look at $449+PSN sub/2 first party games as their target pricing range for launch, much like the PS4 was profitable with a sub or two game purchases.
Re: 60fps & higher - if Sony decide to continue developing PSVR, CPU performance is going to be a key design factor. VR's hard floor of 60FPS, with a preference for 90+, will benefit other games tremendously if it forces performance choices in hardware design.
Shin
Banned
Don't know but as it stands you get a free 40% generational power boost from 14nm to 7nm, another 10% I think from 7nm+ and 60% power reduction.
I don't know about that, those AAA devs who are making high end games right now are not going to stop making high end AAA games, they are gonna keep on scaling up their production.
Those devs who are already lower budgeted have made their decisions on what to prioritize already
Head.spawn
Junior Member
I'm thinking Sony / MS won't be knocking on this door until 20+Tflop GPU's are cheap and feasible in the form factor. These mid-gen bumps were made to keep the wait until then to be a bit more bearable IMO.
That requires most regular consumers to have VRR TVs within 4-5 years.
Why? Most consumers will have to live with what weve always had: games that can frequently hit 30 (or 60) but that occasionally drop frames or dip into 30/20/15fps territory when things get hectic.
Consumers who find this unacceptable will now have the option of buying a display that deals much more gracefully with the reality that frame times are unpredictable in complex real-time scenarios.
Exactly.
Yea, I tend to agree with this. I hope 18 to 24 TFlops the ballpark GPU performance for next-gen consoles.
bitbydeath
Member
I dunno, I can see them going as low as 10TF nextgen, although more expecting it to be 12TF.
Why?
I'm expecting VR to receive a massive focus from Sony which means the CPU is going to need to a massive boost to reach some really high numbers (yes more than 60fps) so that AAA titles can run without issue.
So you expect consoles in 2024?
Devs will still strive for consistent 30 or 60 if VRR is not pervasive.
Heck, I have a GSync and locked 30 is more pleasant than 40-59 so far.