Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
The Kingsman 2 trailer has already racked up over 5 million views on youtube. Between it and... umm, IT, this is going to be the year September finally gets some big OWs.
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Wkd BO 0421-2317 - F8 leads the box office, and drags those who resist
- Thread starter xaosslug
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I had Kingsman 2 pegged as being the Sept weekend record challenger, but IT might beat it there. If either open over $60M, October will take the mantle of shame for lowest monthly opening weekend record. Jan is almost $90M, Feb-Aug, Nov-Dec are all in the $125M+ club.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Probably alternating between going to every remaining showing and setting fire to Ant-Man DVDs.
PhantomX1313
Member
Gotg2 has now made $6M in two days in Australia might end over/under 40m https://numero.co/reports/2017/04/26/galaxy-out-of-this-world
Because someone at some point had the idea of making these movies good.
I suggest you watch them all with GiantBomb's Film & 40's commentary tracks. It's a journey.
LordOfLore
Banned
Anyone going to see the classic Alien now that they are putting it out again? We don't get it until 9/5 but I have a ticket at least.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
http://deadline.com/2017/04/guardia...-opening-international-box-office-1202077856/
AUS: $6.2M
NZ: $800K
Italy: $2.7M
Also, it seems the The Hollywood Reporter stating it was releasing in 58 countries this week was a mistake; the actual number is 37. So $100M for the overseas opening wouldn't surprise me anymore, but I am feeling it'll be able to go above that mark.
Strong results so far. The holidays skew things a bit, but digging up info on Avengers 1 (which I believe released on the same holidays), I found ODs were
AUS: $6.2M
NZ: $800K
Italy: $2.7M
Also, it seems the The Hollywood Reporter stating it was releasing in 58 countries this week was a mistake; the actual number is 37. So $100M for the overseas opening wouldn't surprise me anymore, but I am feeling it'll be able to go above that mark.
LordOfLore
Banned
Brought up in the Covenant thread: Do we have the budget numbers for the rest of the Alien series up to now?
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
Using boxofficemojo.com and wikipedia, we have
Alien: $11M
Aliens: $17-18M
Alien 3: $50M
Alien Resurrection: $75M
Alien Vs. Predator: $60M
Aliens Vs. Predator - Requiem: $40M
Prometheus: $130M
These almost certainly don't include marketing budgets, for which Prometheus would easily have the largest.
The HR number should have been 58% of the os market, not 58 markets. Basically the same as Thor 2, which opened to $109M.
Mix Master
Member
FatF just came out and its gonna cross a billion? Fuccccck.
I think Friday. WW total is about $950M through Tuesday.
ryutaro's mama
Member
Its funny how its always more money spend for worse movies.
That doesn't explain Thor 2
WordAssassin
Member
Yo
Real talk
I want this to happen so bad.
I read some interview a while ago where Segal said he'd only do Under Siege 3 if he could do it in space.
WHATS THE HOLD UP HOLLYWOOD?
Fate of the Furious will easily take its third #1 this weekend as, once again, none of the openers are expected to crack $10M.
Beauty and the Beast passes The Phantom Menace tomorrow to reach the #9 spot on the all-time domestic grosses chart. It will pass Dory at some point in the next 10 days to take its final place at #8. We're still looking at somewhere around $500M as a finish. Disney doesn't care too much about milestones, but I would be surprised if they let BatB top out at $497M or something.
If Guardians Vol 2 can't open over Thor the Dark World's advance overseas debut (in USD) this weekend, I doubt it has much of a shot at $1B. Presales in China are good, but not amazingly good.
Beauty and the Beast passes The Phantom Menace tomorrow to reach the #9 spot on the all-time domestic grosses chart. It will pass Dory at some point in the next 10 days to take its final place at #8. We're still looking at somewhere around $500M as a finish. Disney doesn't care too much about milestones, but I would be surprised if they let BatB top out at $497M or something.
If Guardians Vol 2 can't open over Thor the Dark World's advance overseas debut (in USD) this weekend, I doubt it has much of a shot at $1B. Presales in China are good, but not amazingly good.
ryutaro's mama
Member
C'mon now...Fast & Furious is now a legit superhero franchise, KSwizz...in fact, it might make the most money in that genre this year!
In 2019, I hope you include it in your superhero movie predictions thread.
C'mon now...Fast & Furious is now a legit superhero franchise, KSwizz...in fact, it might make the most money in that genre this year!
In 2019, I hope you include it in your superhero movie predictions thread.
I mostly just stick to the Marvel and DC stuff, I agree that the Fast crew is basically going the Batman route of "regular human" these days. If I make a 2019 thread, I can throw it in the bonus section like I did with Power Rangers this year. I guess the Unbreakable/Split sequel will fall into that category as well.
Spider-Man Homecoming is the only film with an outside shot at making F8 money in the superhero genre this year. It would need a ridiculous overseas total to do so though (like a $300M increase over the ASM films), so I don't see that happening.
Although it is the rebirth of Drafthouse Films, this is their first film under the Neon label. Either way, they've never released anything particularly wide so it'll probably be unlikely to happen in the future without some sort of co-distribution.
So wSJ has an article up talking about the death of the summer movie season
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-summer-movie-season-became-obsolete-1493298002
But boy oh boy has Spider-man fallen from grace when they use Tony Stark (not even in costume) to represent the movie
Also stuff from the article
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-summer-movie-season-became-obsolete-1493298002
But boy oh boy has Spider-man fallen from grace when they use Tony Stark (not even in costume) to represent the movie
Also stuff from the article
No way it does better than GOTG2. Trailer views is a really really terrible way to gauge boxoffice success. Fifty Shades Darker broke the trailer view records of both Fast 7 and The Force Awakens. It did 114 mil at the domestic box office.
IT set the all time record earlier this year for trailer views. It won't set the boxoffice on fire.
So IT is going to be the biggest hit of 2017 before Star Wars?
Don't confuse Youtube view counts with those press releases that also include social media autoplays.
Fifty Shades Darker's most viewed trailer is just over 20M views to date on Youtube. All of the official TFA trailers are in the 75-100M range.
trailer views aren't a 1:1 box office predictor, but within the same genre, they can offer some proof that certain films will be big.
EDIT: Also, the Thor Ragnarok trailer has passed IT on Youtube. Currently 34M to 27M for the official version of each.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
No Pirates, but Wonder Woman is included? *sensible chuckle*
Though in reality, the domestic of Pirates seems to have been dropping, and the percentage of foreign has steadily increased. (which actually seems to be a thing with Transformers too)
The total seems a rather constant 1 billion though, so going with a potential 20-80 dom-foreign division, the US domestic for it should come out at about 200m.
However, WW would have to make half its tracking (about 400) from domestic in order to beat that. MoS and BvS had about 45% from their total from domestic, so those two might have to duke it out on that position. However, there is that lack of marketing... we'll see if that means anything. However, I don't see the other movies soon to come out are heavily marketed either, as far as I can tell, so that might be due to changing the game.
Also, Transformers Whatever will probably end up just above either at 200-ish, but the difference shouldn't be very big, and if it's anything like ID4-2, ho boy. That will make an amazing RT + BO thread if that happens.
It's obviously too late for the predictions thread, but I was kind of thinking about just doing the percentages on them since the movies this season are all franchises, so we can actually play the 'previous earnings + index' game to make predictions.
However, thinking about it today, and being vocal on who wrote the first one (mostly the co-writer, even the director takes credit), I figure I have grossly misjudged GotG2 because that one made most of its money due to its legs (which I believe is due to the writing structure), not being a heavy hitter upon landing. Considering that the sequel is just Gunn, that should mean it should have a larger drop than the first one did.
So basically I no longer think it's going to rock that number 2 worldwide position. We'll see what it actually does though.
The first one made 333m on domestic with almost equal on foreign, but I suspect that 'new Star Wars' influx won't work as well this time. Even at 250 it would still be above a lot of others though.
I still don't see the next Apes doing much better than the previous ones though. Dawn had a great clash of groups, and people seem to have a hard-on for that right now, not 'let's all try to work it out', which War seems to be aiming at a bit more. Kudos for trying though. Its domestic is about 250 for Dawn though, so equal or slightly worse is still above WW and Pirates by the above logic.
Okay, let's look up the BO for the Despicable franchi- oh dear god. So that's basically 350 on domestic alone, 1b total.
Oh, and lastly, the domestic from the Spider-Man movies has actually been continuously dropping by about 30-40 in the Raimi series and 60 with the ASM series, going from 400 on the first one in 2002 to a mere 200 on ASM2 in 2014. Interestingly, the foreign on that franchise is fairly constant around 500-ish, so the domestic dropping constantly really does mean that if Homecoming doesn't raise that back up from 200, there is a chance they might start to reconsider making another one. Particularly since the domestic has already dropped below the production budget.
Looking up Cars, that has already dropped from 240 to sub-200 with the sequel. I don't expect that to be a contender with Despicable Me around. The sequel made 100m more than Cars at 562, so I guess Cars 3 will make 662, with most of it coming from foreign, say 25-75 percentages.
So Domestic Summer Season Prediction should be more like:
1. Despicable Me 3 (350)
2. Guardians 2 (250-300)
2. Apes 3 (250)
3. WW aka Snyder 3 (200)
3. Transformers 5 (200)
3. Pirates 5 (200)
4. Spider-Man 6.v3 (175)
With Dunkirk and Alien 6 running interference.
edit: checked Prometheus, that shit barely even broke 400. Nah, Covenant isn't going to do shit. It might actually become the first Alien to bomb, going with the reaction to its predecessor.
This is also depressing to work out if you look at those sequel numbers. For the old people: remember when you thought Terminator 2 scoring big was the exception because it was a sequel? Yeah.
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
With the way presales have gone + the price of tickets, Baahubali 2 probably would have been the top opener this week if it wasn't having a full day release today.
Freeza Under The Shower
Member
It is the most empirically reasonable thing to do when ignoring everything else. If anything, what it makes above that prediction can be quantified as the "MCU bump".
Also I completely forgot that's even a thing.
But I was looking completely from past BO in a franchise perspective there. I have no idea where to look for tracking and so on, and it probably wouldn't provide more "guessing data" than the past anyway.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
Approach it as a spin-off of Civil War with the MCU's most popular character and a focus on one of the most-liked side-characters of the movie, rather than a follow-up to ASM2.
Mix Master
Member
Sony needs to just kill off spider man, let it die. after the mediocrity of the ASM series they lost their pull. And Apes and Dunkirk are coming out just 1-2 weeks later? lol
Look at past comic book movies starring Robert Downey Jr.
CaviarMeths
Member
"Empirically reasonable."
Even the Spider-Man movie that nobody cared about made $200m.
And no movie featuring Iron Man has ever grossed less than $300m. Since 2012, they've all grossed more than $400m.
Mix Master
Member
you over rate spiderman box office potential imo.
WhiteRabbitEXE
Member
What? Spider-Man is a top-tier brand domestically, that has the potential to stand toe-to-toe to Batman. The only superhero films bigger than the original Spidey were Avengers and The Dark Knight, and all three originals sold more tickets than Civil War or any Iron Man movie. Even if you argue the ASM movies hurt the brand, even they both cleared $200m domestic. Hell, Batman Begins cleared $200m in 2005 after one of the most brand-toxic film of all time.
You're significantly underestimating the power of the Spidey brand, and likely overestimating the toxicity of the ASM films.
And like has been said, this film has the added benefit of featuring Iron Man and being seen as a follow-up to a very popular MCU film, not a follow-up to ASM2, so the damage there is heavily, if not entirely mitigated. Not only that, but many fans actually already consider Holland Spidey to be the best on-screen incarnation of the character yet.
Homecoming may not reach the $1 billion mark, but it sure will earn Sony a lot of money. Especially with the MCU connection and Iron Man in it. That's not overrating anything. I'm sure it'll earn them money, but the question is how much. It would be stupid of Sony to kill this IP when it's one of their biggest earners.
broncobuster
Banned
Correct me if I'm wrong, Marvel isn't sharing merchandising as part of their deal, right? Most outcomes should be advantageous for Disney/Marvel Studios. Can't remember how exactly that deal went.
Pop-O-Matic
Banned
People forget that Spider-Man 3 made $890M back when that was the number of a huge success and not a borderline bomba *coughBVScough* and that Spidey's still probably the biggest superhero merch mover. If Homecoming isn't another ASM-esque disaster, there's a serious chance it joins the Billion Dollar Club.
Sony will get all of the money from the movie. Disney gets it from the merchandising.
Mix Master
Member
I think this is what I was hitting around, I mean Spidey Fatigue has to come in eventually. Just unlimited reboots. and not to mention vulture will probably be wasted/dogshit.
I honestly think Vulture is gonna be pretty cool. Maybe not up there with Doc Ock and Green Goblin, but he looks way cooler than Lizard, Electro and those guys. I really don't think the ordinary audience cares that this is the third Spider-Man.
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