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Media Create Sales 3/10 - 3/16

farnham

Banned
cvxfreak said:
Family Ski's sales are limited to the smaller contingent of Wii owners who own Wii Fit.
you can play it with the wii mote ... i think
jarrod said:
Probably not, but what's the alternative? Larger portions of a small cake or a tiny cake, both likely to be smaller than their 30% slice on the giant cake in the end?

How'd this scenario work out for DS & PSP again? How'd the laundry list of promised PS2 faves like FF, DMC, MGS, Musou, Tekken, Tales, Gundam, Mingol, GT, etc, etc, work out there for that matter.


thats exactly the point that is not getting much of attention... we should not forget that Musou or Winning Eleven were surefire millionseller hits in the PS2 era... yes the sales were declining but still the PSp and PS3 games did far below the number of the usual PS2 sales.. and i wont even talk about MGAcid or MGSPO..

The fact is that the thirdparties are showing better numbers overall on the Wii then they showed on the GC.. while the thirdparties are clearly declining on the PS3...

games like opoona or zack and wiki bombed sure.. but do you really assume those would have sold better on PS3.. or PS2 for that matter..? because I sure dont
 

test_account

XP-39C²
ksamedi said:
I think it did 30k first day.

You're right, i just checked. I must have mixed it up with another game, sorry. Or maybe i mixed it up with the "10" in the games name hehe (WII Deca Sporta: Wii de Sports 10 Shumoku!).
 
ksamedi said:
Why would a multimillion dollar organisation go budget? These companies have more than enough money to invest in talented staff or companies or even resarch. Its foolish to think they will go budget when its known that budget titles lead to less profit margins which in turn lead to less profit. What they need to do is invest in new IP or gameplay concepts like Nintendo is doing. Have a healthy mix of both low budget and big budget quality titles and they will be fine. The problem is that all the talented staff is still working on PS3 or 360 projects that started years ago.
ksamedi said:
I'm sure 3rd parties will need to fire some staff if they can't make succesfull games. Its easy enough. Or they could hire the help of Sora.
Its your hypothesis, if they can't make successful games, they would need to go budget. Like you said, the mix would have to tide to low budget games if the big ones doesn't make money.

ksamedi said:
Who should they blame though?
Themselves of course. I wasn't certainly talking about who to blame, but how is the situation.

Dascu said:
It's thanks to that one company that the cake is so big.
Indeed it is. I wasn't certainly talking about who made the cake that big, but how is the situation of that cake to a particular sector of the industry right now.

jarrod said:
Probably not, but what's the alternative?
None. I wasn't certainly talking about what alternatives they should take, but how is the situation right now.


I'd like to continue to post but I'm sorry, I have to go guys. Let me remind you first what did my first post said:
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Yeah, wow, such good numbers for Family Ski, WE Playmaker, RE4....1 of those even broke 100k! And Wii userbase is just 5,56m! Such amazing performance.


loweredexpectations.jpg
You can keep moving this into asking me what do I think of 300 other matters, but that post there certainly doesn't bring them up, since its just a sarcastic take on a few particular posts above.
 
Stumpokapow said:
And more importantly if you look at the big cake-picture, that one company is still taking more than 50% of the cake. It's not like there are exclusively three separate cakes, it's more like there are three cakes but each cake shares some of its cake with another cake. It's a 4-dimensional cake.

... it's almost like the cake analogy itself is flawed and we're better off just discussing game sales instead of cars or cakes.

Good idea. I was getting hungry for cake.
 

Parl

Member
It's quite strange that so many people expect 3rd parties to automatically have reasonable marketshare.

The most successful games on 360 are big budget titles, in general. If 3rd parties approached 360 with shovelware, then Microsoft would dominate with Halo 3 and 360 would be just another Xbox.

I see competitive games by third parties on 360 and PS3, but I don't see many competitive products on Wii by 3rd parties.

It's just as why Square Enix has 0% marketshare on PS3, because they have yet to release a game. Releasing uncompetitive titles isn't that much better, as third parties have largely realised on Wii, and as 3rd parties who released crap on PS2, 360, PSP, DS and many other consoles also realised.

Had 3rd parties released all of their big budget games exclusively on Wii instead of PS360 (everything from Gears to DMC4), and if PS360's best 3rd party efforts were Zack & Wiki, No More Heros and a non graphically upgraded RE4, then people would be having this discussion about PS3 and 360 and saying that Sony and Microsoft are taking too much of their cake.
 
jarrod said:
Probably not, but what's the alternative? Larger portions of a small cake or a tiny cake, both likely to be smaller than their 30% slice on the giant cake in the end?

I dunno where this cake thing started but its stupid. Companies dont care about what percentage of the cake they get, they only care about profits.

Companies will be happier where more profits are made, regardless of marketshare.

For example, Capcom choosed to release 360 games because they thought they were going to make bigger profits, they were not thinking about any cake.

So in the end if you want to talk about companies motivation think about profits first and everything else second.

If you want to talk if a game flopped or not you must take in consideration the companies expectation.
 

jarrod

Banned
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
You can keep moving this into asking me what do I think of 300 other matters, but that post there certainly doesn't bring them up, since its just a sarcastic take on a few particular posts above.
But lowered expectations? Really? Really??

I'm sorry Kurosaki, but if anything games like Famiski, WEPM08 and RE4 Wii have all recently exceeded expectations.

What's you're really looking for is last year's holiday massacre (Wegol, Chocobo, NiGHTS, SCL, etc). :lol
 
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Yeah, wow, such good numbers for Family Ski, WE Playmaker, RE4....1 of those even broke 100k! And Wii userbase is just 5,56m! Such amazing performance.

loweredexpectations.jpg
It's all about expectations, and for the titles mentioned they were lower indeed. VF5 selling short of 100k LTD is a huge bomb. Family Ski being almost at 100k and still selling is a success. Same with RE4, it beat Capcom's expectations by a huge margin, how can it be anything but a huge success?

I wouldn't call WE Wii a success though. It bombed not as hard as I expected but it's a far shot from being a success.

And we all know that software sales don't scale infinitely with the userbase, otherwise most (if not all) software for PS2 bombed.

AnimeTheme said:
For bombs, I was basically just talking about most 3rd party hardcore games on Wii. I wouldn't call NMH and WE PM a success on Wii. A mere pass, at most.

Even if you want to talk about 1st party hardcore games, let's take a look at how Mario Galaxy and Zelda TP perform, in Japan. Do you think they perform overwhelmingly well? Do you think their success has a lot to do with the new control scheme/Wii philosophy, but not basically just their established franchise popularity and the sheer increased size (when compared with GC) of Wii's user base?

I don't really get what you mean by "excluding" them. RE4/UC is definitely an example of success of core games on Wii, yes. But you can't deny that as I said RE is a popular franchise by itself, and such gun shooting actions suit Wiimote in an obvious enough way. It's not like most other core games can share similar successful factors.
How can NMH not be a success? For a Suda game with a very low overall budget the sales are phenomenal. Rising Star even had a PR piece saying that they were weeping in joy over the success. WE Wii I agree (see above).

But how would first party software for the core not perform well? SMG and Smash did well (latter does phenomenal). Zelda was aimed at the western market and it showed. It still did respectable numbers in Japan.

I don't know what the part about sales increasing because of Wii's userbase and not because of Wii's philosophy has got to do with the topic at hand though.
 

Parl

Member
Neo C. said:
The percentage of this company will go down, as we can see on the DS.

Indeed, as future 3rd party games get more and more competitive. Nintendo continues to release new games on DS, with their previous games still having monster legs, and yet 3rd parties still took Nintendo's marketshare, although Nintendo don't mind because the cake grew in the oven.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Pureauthor said:
Good idea. I was getting hungry for cake.

I gorged myself on apple pie and angel food cake yesterday. Two separate easter dinners means two separate turkeys and two separate desserts. I think I'm on a candy and sweets holiday today.

Do you do the Easter dinner thing? I've never heard you mention what denomination of Christianity you were to know whether or not you celebrate it... and IIRC Singapore doesn't do the secular Easter holiday.

Are Turkeys available in South-East Asia? I can't imagine having to settle for duck or goose for holiday celebrations. If you haven't done a turkey holiday, you haven't done a holiday at all!
 
cvxfreak said:
Family Ski's sales are limited to the smaller contingent of Wii owners who own Wii Fit.
It can be played with WiiMote and Nunchuck. Although the success of this title is tied to the balance board imo.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Phife Dawg said:
It can be played with WiiMote and Nunchuck. Although the success of this title is tied to the balance board imo.

I think it's fairly analogous to stand-alone guitar hero or DDR/bemani games. Yes, you CAN play them without the peripheral... but people don't.
 
Stumpokapow said:
I gorged myself on apple pie and angel food cake yesterday. Two separate easter dinners means two separate turkeys and two separate desserts. I think I'm on a candy and sweets holiday today.

Do you do the Easter dinner thing? I've never heard you mention what denomination of Christianity you were to know whether or not you celebrate it... and IIRC Singapore doesn't do the secular Easter holiday.

Are Turkeys available in South-East Asia? I can't imagine having to settle for duck or goose for holiday celebrations. If you haven't done a turkey holiday, you haven't done a holiday at all!

My family was never big on celebrating holidays. For my first seeen or so years of existence as a human they put up a Christmas tree for me and my sister. Since then it's been, 'Oh, it's Christmas, isn't it? Merry Christmas, son. Don't forget we've got service tonight.'

I think I inherited that trait from them. Yesterday was Easter - I spent it teaching Sunday School, and then I went home and packed for my new vocation as an Intelligence Assistance of the SAF Mapping Unit.
 

ksamedi

Member
farnham said:
nothing... but MGS is a million selling franchise in Japan.. the PSP one clearly did not break 1 million copies

The PS2 games didn't break a million either, MGS:pO was clearly a succes. Konami themselves admitted this.
 
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Yeah, wow, such good numbers for Family Ski, WE Playmaker, RE4....1 of those even broke 100k! And Wii userbase is just 5,56m! Such amazing performance.


loweredexpectations.jpg
I'm sure Bandai-Namco are happy about Family Ski numbers, and regarding WE:Wii - dude look at when it was released. I mean it's not big success, but it ain't a bomba.
 
Phife Dawg said:
How can NMH not be a success? For a Suda game with a very low overall budget the sales are phenomenal. Rising Star even had a PR piece saying that they were weeping in joy over the success.

Hmm... I dunno. Seriously I haven't actually played NMH to judge how small budget it is. I was just talking about the sales in Japan, not worldwide. Maybe in certain sense, it can be called a success in Japan.

But how would first party software for the core not perform well? SMG and Smash did well (latter does phenomenal). Zelda was aimed at the western market and it showed. It still did respectable numbers in Japan.

I don't know what the part about sales increasing because of Wii's userbase and not because of Wii's philosophy has got to do with the topic at hand though.

I wasn't saying they did bad. They did well, of course. But there is something that the 3rd parties may worry when not even Nintendo can prove that the Wiimote can be an obvious advantage for core games. Seriously, I think most people were expecting more sales for Galaxy and Zelda in Japan. We can quite easily see why 3rd parties are conservative in making core games for Wii, when the only advantages they have so far are low development cost and a larger user base (which is made up of mostly casual gamers).
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
Pureauthor said:
My family was never big on celebrating holidays. For my first seeen or so years of existence as a human they put up a Christmas tree for me and my sister. Since then it's been, 'Oh, it's Christmas, isn't it? Merry Christmas, son. Don't forget we've got service tonight.'

Gotcha. In North America the holidays are so big commercially and especially Christmas and Easter are sufficiently secularized into generic "Winter" and "Spring" holidays that pretty much everyone ends up getting suckered into the buying gifts thing.

I think I inherited that trait from them. Yesterday was Easter - I spent it teaching Sunday School, and then I went home and packed for my new vocation as an Intelligence Assistance of the SAF Mapping Unit.

Mapping? That's pretty cool. A good skill that you can take outside the army later. I'm assuming at this point you won't be serving after your 2 years is done?
 

ziran

Member
AnimeTheme said:
Some people blamed way too much on the 3rd parties for their so called "lack of vision". Wii really IS a confusing machine itself. It's very successful in the casual game market, yes, but what has it proved for the traditional hardcore market? Other than a few games which are popular enough franchise by themselves and have an obvious enough advantage in switching to Wiimote (eg. RE4/UC), most others just bomb big. Even in the casual game market itself, we haven't seen Wii opening up a really wide variety of new opportunities so far, other than some party games and mini game collections.

What do you want the 3rd parties to do? Betting a much bigger budget on their traditional games that have proved little to no success on Wii so far? Or just completely give up what they have done and proved successful in the previous generations and switch to making Nintendo clones and shovelwares?
This is exactly what they should do.

3rd parties need to give many styles of gaming and ways of playing a rest. They need to adopt the Nintendo mantra of new ways to play old games and new games to play, which isn't really Nintendo's anyway it's common sense.

This doesn't mean abandon the hardcore, this audience can be as happy with new content, it's just they fear it to a ridiculous level, and, it doesn't mean develop exclusively on Nintendo platforms (although significant resources from major 3rd party teams is important now with the installed base Nintendo platforms hold).

Things change, people need to get used to it, and it is ineptness at a amazing level from 3rd parties to flounder so spectacularly in Japan when the warning signs were so loud, like the continual decline of so many franchises and genres last gen and the popularity of DS and its sw over PSP. Even before this gen started it was clear in Japan for 3rd parties, massive budgets on PS3 sw was equal in risk to major Wii projects, and if this wasn't seen, you have no interest in what's happening in the market or only see what you want to see.
 
Stumpokapow said:
Gotcha. In North America the holidays are so big commercially and especially Christmas and Easter are sufficiently secularized into generic "Winter" and "Spring" holidays that pretty much everyone ends up getting suckered into the buying gifts thing.

Oh, it's pretty commercialized here as well. My parents just never bought into it much.

Mapping? That's pretty cool. A good skill that you can take outside the army later. I'm assuming at this point you won't be serving after your 2 years is done?

Maybe if I become a Geography teacher. >_>

ziran said:
This is exactly what they should do.

I don't see how this works. Outside of Nintendo, none of the 'traditional' game devs have met great success with Blue Ocean styled software on the Wii, and there has been evidence of 'traditional' games doing just fine on it. Painting with broad strokes is almost always erroneous - I don't think this is an exception.
 
Stumpokapow said:
... it's almost like the cake analogy itself is flawed and we're better off just discussing game sales instead of cars or cakes.
Cake is trouble. It's hard to picture it in various combined forms. We need something closer to a liquid. Nintendo is taking a big spoonful of the combined bowl of pudding?
 

Neomoto

Member
I think these discussions should be put on hold till the time when Wii actually gets more than 1 3rd party title who has the change to sell well in Japan (really well). Were arguing about Family Ski and such when the competition get's high profile killer apps from 3rd parties.

If anything you can see (http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=128989) that the Wii has 7/8 third party titles selling 100k+ in Japan whereas PS3 also has 7 third party titles who has sold 100k+ in Japan. And among the PS3 list you will find Ridge Racer 7, Gundam Musou, Dynasty Warriors, Virtua Fighter 5, Winning Eleven 2008 and such against Dragon Ball Z, a RE 4 port, Naruto, a RE spin-off, One Piece and a Dragon Quest spin-off.

Not exactly a fair comparisation now is it. Seriously, it's not even funny. And yet even these titles sell well/good enough. DQS sold significantly more than any PS3 title and Dragon Ball Z: Budokai Tenkaichi 2 which is a straight PS2 port, would be #4 on the PS3 top 10 (and they both came really early in Wii's lifespan). So these discussions every week are pretty meaningless. Especially since developers contribute sales of Wii versions to their increased profits and such and continue to announce more and more Wii games (far moreso than PS3 games). I take it they wouldn't do that if they were so unhappy with Wii.
 

test_account

XP-39C²
farnham said:
nothing... but MGS is a million selling franchise in Japan.. the PSP one clearly did not break 1 million copies

According to japan-gamecharts.com none of the listed MGS games sold 1 million copies. The highest is MGS2 with about 832k copies sold (note that this is from the last updated tracking, i have no idea if a "The Best" version was released and/or if MGS2 had very long legs outside the sales tracking, so it might have broken 1 million copies sold for all i know, but now i go out from what japan-gamecharts.com lists). MGS1 might have sold over 1 million copies though, that wouldnt suprise me, but its not listed at japan-gamecharts.com.

MGS:pO on PSP is the 5th most sold PSP game (not that this says too much though) at about 358k units sold at the last updated tracking. I also see there is a MGS:pO Plus that sold about 206k, and there is a MGS:pO Plus Deluxe Package that sold about 24k (i guess this counts as 24k copies of the game as well, and i dont know what the difference is between MGS:pO and MGS:pO Plus).

So all MGS:pO games in total have sold about 588k after the last updated tracking. I dont think that is too bad on a system where "software doesnt sell". This is also portable VS console. Some games that are popular on consoles isnt always as popular on handhelds or vice versa. I.e Monster Hunter is more popular on a portable than on console. If MH3 on Wii ends up selling around i.e 500k, i dont think too many will say "omg bomb!" just because MHP on PSP sold over 1 million copies.
 
jarrod said:
But lowered expectations? Really? Really??

I'm sorry Kurosaki, but if anything games like Famiski, WEPM08 and RE4 Wii have all recently exceeded expectations.

What's you're really looking for is last year's holiday massacre (Wegol, Chocobo, NiGHTS, SCL, etc). :lol
Since a few people brought this up, I'm taking just one post to answer (btw, I'm sorry that I can't answer all those who quoted me, I'm in a hurry). I was not trying to diminish those 3 games I mentioned at all, its not what I was trying to mention, sorry for the confusion. In fact people were mentioning those titles because they sold well, and I do agree with them (much more with RE4 and Family Ski than with WE though). My point wasn't about how those games did in particular, but the overall situation of the platform (just like we can point out some particular successes on PSP but the overall situation is terrible). I said lowered expectations to using those games to say that the overall situation is good, a few titles doing 100k, even if those are pretty good results for themselves, doesn't make Wii overall 3rd party picture a success story. Have to go again, this time longer though.
 

ziran

Member
Pureauthor said:
I don't see how this works. Outside of Nintendo, none of the 'traditional' game devs have met great success with Blue Ocean styled software on the Wii, and there has been evidence of 'traditional' games doing just fine on it. Painting with broad strokes is almost always erroneous - I don't think this is an exception.
Re-read what I wrote, I'm not talking just about Blue Ocean, I'm taking more about traditional gaming being able to exist in a broad sense for many developers if it feels new, which is easy to do on Wii and DS but difficult on systems like PSP and PS3 - and - coming to the table with a by the numbers sequel to a previous (declining) success being often a recipe for lower/stagnant sales because consumers are bored playing these titles to the extent they're giving up trying.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
JoshuaJSlone said:
Cake is trouble. It's hard to picture it in various combined forms. We need something closer to a liquid. Nintendo is taking a big spoonful of the combined bowl of pudding?

Speaking of liquidity, I wonder if you might do me a favor. I'm trying to do a relatively complex query on your database and I'm wondering if you might be able to either a) provide me with a file dump so I could do it locally or b) modify the schema for me... I know it's a lot to ask, so here's my explanation as to why I want it:

- Show me the median sales of all titles on a console up until a certain moment of time.

Putting aside the difficulty of doing a median via SQL (since it has to be done using a compound function or a subselect), and replacing "median" with "mean" begrudgingly, I'm having a hard time figuring out a way to do this within the current schema.

So I guess basically what I want is to find the most recent weekly LTD not more recent than <x date> for all software on a platform and average that.

My basic line of development for the query was:
1) select platform name, average(sales ltd) from weekly software sales where the week in question is not later than <x> grouping by platform. -- the problem here; if software <y> is present in <n> weeks, its LTD for each one of those weeks will be included in the average, so in other words titles with more weeks on chart have more influence in the average regardless of their actual sales, and the overall average is lower than it should be because it's counting weeks before the software reaches its maximum LTD.

2) so, to improve this, I'd do something like... select platform name, average(maximum sales ltd grouped by each game) from weekly software sales where the week in question is not later than <x> grouping by platform. -- the problem here; it's illegal to group multiple functions by multiple columns... IE I can't group by average by platform and my maximum by game at the same time.

3) so, to improve this, I'd use a subselect like... select platform name, average(sales ltd) from weekly software sales where the week in question is not later than <x> grouping by platform AND <week_id> is in (SELECT the most recent week from software sales group by software id) -- the problem here; you don't have a primary key uniquely identifying each week-softwareid combination in softwareweekly. So basically the subselect can't go forward because I can't actually pull things out of the subselect because there's no column name to join the subselect to the main query.

So if I could get a dump of softwareweekly and softwareinfo, that'd be cool... or if not, could you add a primary key auto_increment to softwareweekly so I could uniquely identify each software id-week 2-tuple?

The final query would look like:
SELECT Platform, AVG(SalesLTD) AS m FROM SoftwareInfo, SoftwareWeekly WHERE SoftwareWeekly.GameID=SoftwareInfo.GameID AND SoftwareWeekly.Week < "2008-01-01" AND SoftwareWeekly.UniqueWeekID IS IN (Select MAX(SoftwareWeekly.UniqueWeekID) FROM SoftwareWeekly GROUP BY GameID) GROUP BY SoftwareInfo.Platform;

In this case, I entitled the new column "UniqueWeekID" and asked for the cutoff point to be January 1st, 2008 but I don't care what the column is called and I'll be running this query for multiple cutoff points.
 
sphinx said:
wii is not a PS2 not because the wii userbase are avoiding 3rd party games on purpose.

You people need to think that the current japanese situation is a consequence of decisions taken in 2005 and 2006. After the gamecube disaster, there wasn't a single independent 3rd party developer that would bet a penny on the " revolution " and its weird crap.

companies that had good relationship with nintendo like capcom or square enix, took the option of cautious movements: low budget, decent games to test the waters like Z&W or DQS. Other devs, specially the westerns, haven't even been able to put anything other than shovelware on the wii. They weren't expecting to spend a single minute researching the possibilities of the Wii, let alone developing games for it.

In short, nobody believed on the wii and nintendo knew that so they stuck to their plan of making their machine a " nintendo machine ", expecting to not have much support from anyone on the industry.

we are now in 2008 with Wi, destroying the competition like there is no tomorrow, people buying nintendo stuff like crazy, people wanting to waggle that control, to make those miis, etc. etc. and developers are left with a big " WHAT THE FUCK" in their heads. Do you think that changing plans is as easy as " quick! cancel everything! move everything to the wii! " ? No, is damn hard because to this develoeprs disgrace, you can't port PS360 stuff to the wii " as is", you would have to change it very, very significantly.

So they can't cancel projects that have been in the oven for 1.5 or 3 years behind neither they can port them to wii because they would suck because they were never meant to use the functions of the wii ( motion sensing, etc. ).

Nintendo has EVERYONE in the industry grabbed by the balls because they know they WILL be the kings of videogaming through out this generation, 3rd parties on board or not.

So to conclude, in terms of raw comercial success, the Wii will be the PS2 of this generation, the only difference is that 3rd parties are not going to get a slice of the pay this time.

Good post. Fundamentally I agree.
 
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
I said lowered expectations to using those games to say that the overall situation is good, a few titles doing 100k, even if those are pretty good results for themselves, doesn't make Wii overall 3rd party picture a success story. Have to go again, this time longer though.

But when you say lowered expectations thats just your opinion.

Most third parties know they messed up when they dissed the Wii. Thats why they really dont expect so much from Wii since they did not put much effort to beging with
 
AnimeTheme said:
Hmm... I dunno. Seriously I haven't actually played NMH to judge how small budget it is. I was just talking about the sales in Japan, not worldwide. Maybe in certain sense, it can be called a success in Japan.

Given that it seems to have equaled, if not outsold, most (all?) of Suda's previous games, including Killer7, which had Capcom behind it and the benefit of a release on two platforms, yes it could certainly be called a success. Its 30k to date may look poor in comparison to other Wii titles, but I would have thought that regular readers of sales threads would have understood by now that a game can be successful even if it sells far fewer units than Game X.

NMH's overseas sales - IIRC approx. 150k in US and decent charting in the UK and one or two other PAL territories - should easily put it on the way to being Suda's most successful game. Even Killer7 didn't enjoy that level of success (I believe its worldwide shipment ended up at something like 300k, most of which probably languished in bargain bins).
 
Stumpokapow said:
I think it's fairly analogous to stand-alone guitar hero or DDR/bemani games. Yes, you CAN play them without the peripheral... but people don't.
As I said, I think the success is directly linked to the balance board, but even without the support for it, the game would've sold a good deal of copies (not as much though). It's not really comparable to GH/Bemani. From what I understand you use WiiMote and Nunchuck as ski poles, there already is a layer of immersion without the peripheral, which Bemani/GH standalones lack.

AnimeTheme said:
Hmm... I dunno. Seriously I haven't actually played NMH to judge how small budget it is. I was just talking about the sales in Japan, not worldwide. Maybe in certain sense, it can be called a success in Japan.

I wasn't saying they did bad. They did well, of course. But there is something that the 3rd parties may worry when not even Nintendo can prove that the Wiimote can be an obvious advantage for core games. Seriously, I think most people were expecting more sales for Galaxy and Zelda in Japan. We can quite easily see why 3rd parties are conservative in making core games for Wii, when the only advantages they have so far are low development cost and a larger user base (which is made up of mostly casual gamers).
Well even Suda said NMH was aimed more at a western audience, so far it paid of. I wouldn't think of it as a big success in Japan alone but it's not a bomb either.

Wii has enough control options for every core game. Just as with DS I think there's a market for traditionally controlled games. Plus, I actually liked Zelda's controls.

Galaxy deserved more sales but we all knew that it would not beat either Smash (core) or WiiFit (casual).

Low dev costs and large userbase are certainly two major points, don't you think? I think third parties are cautious because of the new route Nintendo took and by coming off of the GC. Most fanbases for the big franchises were grown on PS consoles. And then they have to compete with Nintendo directly on their plattform. Although indirectly everyone is competing with Nintendo regardless of plattform they release on. It'll be interesting to see what the future brings for third parties, esp. the smaller ones.
 
Stumpokapow said:
- Show me the median sales of all titles on a console up until a certain moment of time.

Putting aside the difficulty of doing a median via SQL (since it has to be done using a compound function or a subselect), and replacing "median" with "mean" begrudgingly, I'm having a hard time figuring out a way to do this within the current schema.

So I guess basically what I want is to find the most recent weekly LTD not more recent than <x date> for all software on a platform and average that.
It would be fairly easy to do this for a particular time in a manual way. For instance, here's GameCube software through the week of 2004-01-05. With 91 titles (that made the list) the median would be #46: 31,233. At the bottom it lists the sum of the game totals as 12,823,380 which we can divide by 91 to get a mean of 140,916.

Here's the query I use to grab the data for the link given above, where $Platform and $Week vary:
Select SoftwareWeekly.GameID, ReleaseDate, SoftwareInfo.TitleEnglish, SoftwareInfo.TitleJapanese, SoftwareInfo.Publisher, SoftwareWeekly.SalesLTD, max(Week) as AsOf
FROM SoftwareWeekly, (SELECT GameID, max(SalesLTD) as SalesLTD FROM SoftwareWeekly WHERE SoftwareWeekly.Week <= '$Week'
GROUP BY GameID
) HighSales, SoftwareInfo
where
SoftwareWeekly.SalesLTD = HighSales.SalesLTD
and
SoftwareWeekly.GameID = HighSales.GameID
and
SoftwareWeekly.Tracker='Famitsu'
and
SoftwareInfo.Platform='$Platform'
and
SoftwareWeekly.GameID = SoftwareInfo.GameID
GROUP BY SoftwareWeekly.GameID
ORDER BY SoftwareWeekly.SalesLTD DESC
In bold is the bit where it picks the proper LTDs to use for a given time. I originally had it picking the most recent weekly listing for a game and using that total, but that presented a problem. Occasionally there will be weeks where the weekly ranking of a game is known, but nothing about its weekly or total sales at the time. If it just uses the most recent listing, it will in such a case give 0 for the LTD.

Telling it to cut out the extra info and just give one average result, here's the query I get asking it the same question about GCN software through the week of 2004-01-05. It comes to the same result I did somewhat more manually above.


I actually uhh... came to a working query for finding the median, too, but it's a bit ridiculous as-is; perhaps I've just not messed enough with table aliasing to find the right way to handle it. I used this example median query, and fed in the earlier-quoted query in place of the example Total_Sales table. However, I couldn't find a way to directly rereference it for use as a2 and a3, so my original query is pasted into it three times, once for each new alias. :lol Which apart from looking awful, means you'd have to modify the date and platform in three places. It came up with the correct result of 31,233, though.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
JoshuaJSlone said:
It would be fairly easy to do this for a particular time in a manual way.

You got me :lol. I hadn't thought of doing the join that way and then opting to do it on a platform-by-platform basis. I will have to do about 20 queries separately (every platform I care about for each year), but it'll still be much faster than I originally thought. Thanks!
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Since a few people brought this up, I'm taking just one post to answer (btw, I'm sorry that I can't answer all those who quoted me, I'm in a hurry). I was not trying to diminish those 3 games I mentioned at all, its not what I was trying to mention, sorry for the confusion. In fact people were mentioning those titles because they sold well, and I do agree with them (much more with RE4 and Family Ski than with WE though). My point wasn't about how those games did in particular, but the overall situation of the platform (just like we can point out some particular successes on PSP but the overall situation is terrible). I said lowered expectations to using those games to say that the overall situation is good, a few titles doing 100k, even if those are pretty good results for themselves, doesn't make Wii overall 3rd party picture a success story. Have to go again, this time longer though.


Ok, that's pretty fair, but those lowered expectations quite frankly are largely because 3rd parties aren't giving the Wii userbase titles that should be expected to sell much more than 100K.
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
schuelma said:
Ok, that's pretty fair, but those lowered expectations quite frankly are largely because 3rd parties aren't giving the Wii userbase titles that should be expected to sell much more than 100K.

In other words, they're not lowered expectations at all because they're in line with comparable titles on the PS2 in terms of expectations

Lowered expectations is people excusing Chocobo / SC:L / We Love Golf / other titles that were a part of the pre-holiday massacre.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
Stumpokapow said:
Lowered expectations is people excusing Chocobo / SC:L / We Love Golf / other titles that were a part of the pre-holiday massacre.

Exactly..and I got into a few arguments with people claiming those titles bombing wasn't a big deal.


If WLG had done 100K, I would have said it did ok. But it did god fucking awful- like 10K first week. That's just atrocious.
 

gtj1092

Member
schuelma said:
Ok, that's pretty fair, but those lowered expectations quite frankly are largely because 3rd parties aren't giving the Wii userbase titles that should be expected to sell much more than 100K.


But why not? Were the titles released in the PS2s first year expected to million sellers or become huge franchises. Also if its about profits determining weather or not a title is a bomba. How can anyone say that all those titles people like to trot as bomba for Ps3 didnt make a profit. Does anyone honestly think these titles had huge budgets i.e. dynasty warriors, hotshots. While they may not have sold on par with previous iteration they have most likely shipped enough worldwide if not japan alone to be profitable.

Also if it is about expectations why would these same titles be expected to sell more on a console with a smaller userbase and one which is selling at a slower pace than its predecessor.

Also when people say certain titles on wii exceeded sales expectations as a barometer if a title sold well; would you also say that 3rd parties were probably overly conservative in their predictions not knowing how Wii's userbase would respond to such a titles.
 

Spiegel

Member
cvxfreak said:
Family Ski's sales are limited to the smaller contingent of Wii owners who own Wii Fit.

Family Ski is the only one game compatible with the balance board (not counting Wii Fit) so if the 1500k+ Wii Fit owners want another game they don't have choice. And that's why I think the game has sold 100k
 

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
gtj1092 said:
Also when people say certain titles on wii exceeded sales expectations as a barometer if a title sold well; would you also say that 3rd parties were probably overly conservative in their predictions not knowing how Wii's userbase would respond to such a titles.

No, that's false. In the very few cases that people have used sales expectations as an argument, those expectations have very much been reasonable and free of any conservative or downplaying bias on the part of the company.

Your argument is hypothetically possible, but in all of the cases that we could point to on GAF, it's incorrect.

Sonic and Mario, RE4, and RE:UC are the only titles I've even seen company sales expectations brought up for, and in all three cases they've been worldwide expectations, and in all three cases people here have argued the expectations are too high, and in all three cases they've demolished expectations.

I've also seen a nebulous "Suda games don't sell ergo NMH is ok" sales expectations argument, but that's true as well--Suda's company was founded by a $50k investment, he's openly given developer talks about his corners-cutting cost-savings style, and his company continues to produce games no problem... so I wouldn't say that it's conservative or downplaying to say that NMH never had a chance and the meager 30k it has eeked out is in line with expectations that were reasonable.
 
Could someone provide me with the LTD of Ryuusei no Rockman (Mega Man Star Force) for all five versions that have come out so far? (Namely, Dragon, Leo, Pegasus, ZerkerXSaurian and ZerkerXNinja).
 
Pureauthor said:
Could someone provide me with the LTD of Ryuusei no Rockman (Mega Man Star Force) for all five versions that have come out so far? (Namely, Dragon, Leo, Pegasus, ZerkerXSaurian and ZerkerXNinja).
Separately? Famitsu combines them so 593,675 for the first three and 258,325 for the second two.
 
Kurosaki Ichigo said:
Separately? Famitsu combines them so 593,675 for the first three and 258,325 for the second two.

Yeah, I was kinda hoping for seperately. Of course, if that's not available, I'll make do with combined.
 
Pureauthor said:
Yeah, I was kinda hoping for seperately. Of course, if that's not available, I'll make do with combined.
MC separates them but we just have 2006 Top500 from them:
Pegasus - 88,668
Leo - 68,910
Dragon - 68,106

Most of their sales came from 2007 so if we get MC 2007 Top500 we'll have separated totals (and for the 2nd ones too I suppose).
 

Arhal_Katarn

Junior Member
Does anyone else reckon that Sony could pull off a psp style comeback with the ps3 in Japan? I think if they can get a ps3 slim out when FF13 comes out there's a chance but the ps3 needs more jrpg's then just FF13, FFv13 and WKS. Don't get me wrong here i am not saying the ps3 is ever gonna overtake the wii's lifetime sales in Japan i just think that it could make a comeback and outsell it on a weekly basis later in its life and at least end up a decent runner up like the psp.
 

donny2112

Member
Arhal_Katarn said:
Does anyone else reckon that Sony could pull off a psp style comeback with the ps3 in Japan? I think if they can get a ps3 slim out when FF13 comes out there's a chance but the ps3 needs more jrpg's then just FF13, FFv13 and WKS.

PSP's current sales pace has little to do with the games available for it. Therefore, a similar sustained PS3 style "comeback" would have nothing to do with the games on the system, but rather likely something to do with increased Blu-Ray adoption.


Someone asked earlier what the last Namco-Bandai game to sell > 100K was. The answer is in the the OP.
 

Datschge

Member
donny2112 said:
Therefore, a similar sustained PS3 style "comeback" would have nothing to do with the games on the system, but rather likely something to do with increased Blu-Ray adoption.
Aren't cheaper dedicated BR players available already though? So if that ship sailed and no game pushes units the last chance may well be turning PS3 into a tivo like HD TV recorder (not terribly likely seeing how PSX fared)...
 

Arhal_Katarn

Junior Member
Surely games such as Crisis Core helped the psp but imo it was the redesign that spurred sales the most. I think a ps3 slim would increase sales massively in Japan and if FF13 was launched with the slim ps3 the sales would be through the roof. Saying that Sony Japan have really screwed up this gen.
 
Stumpokapow said:
CONTROVERSY

Median Sales; Why use? Helps to show the overall software strength of a system without being dragged down as much by obviously pathetic <1000 sale titles or powerhouse titles that overpower sales.
If you want to show the overall software strength of a system, just use total sales. This is the closest to a pure measurement you can get.

Median isn't. Multimodal distributions would result in distorted medians, and the exclusion of bombs and hits isn't a benefit for analysis as you imply, it's a loss. It's like overzealous JPEG compression. The one thing I think median would be good for is as an abstraction of the shape of sales distribution. Showing medians as well as total number of titles released for the period would indicate whether everything was selling well, or there were hits and bombs but no consistency, etc.

For real interest, though, I think you'd want to forego the abstraction and head straight for the true data: a histogram of sales performance of all games for a system. The bonus here would be that total sales would also be included, as the area of the graph.
 
Stumpokapow said:
No, that's false. In the very few cases that people have used sales expectations as an argument, those expectations have very much been reasonable and free of any conservative or downplaying bias on the part of the company.

Your argument is hypothetically possible, but in all of the cases that we could point to on GAF, it's incorrect.

Sonic and Mario, RE4, and RE:UC are the only titles I've even seen company sales expectations brought up for, and in all three cases they've been worldwide expectations, and in all three cases people here have argued the expectations are too high, and in all three cases they've demolished expectations.

I've also seen a nebulous "Suda games don't sell ergo NMH is ok" sales expectations argument, but that's true as well--Suda's company was founded by a $50k investment, he's openly given developer talks about his corners-cutting cost-savings style, and his company continues to produce games no problem... so I wouldn't say that it's conservative or downplaying to say that NMH never had a chance and the meager 30k it has eeked out is in line with expectations that were reasonable.

Besides, NMH was clearly aimed towards the Western audience and thus had higher expectations for Europe and USA. And needless to say, i would think those expectations have been at least met, if not exceeded.
 
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