ScaryShark
Banned
lol, the other thread made me warm up to the idea of 2019 and now we're starting over.
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Pachter on PS5: Bets on 2020 launch now, PS4 Pro to become "default PS4"
- Thread starter Bitch Pudding
- Start date
The Artisan
Member
what made him change his mind? didn't he say midstep/2018/2019 or something like that before? I thought I saw a thread for it
He said 2019 before, yeah. I think 2019 and 2020 are both equally likely.
This is the second time you've posted this but haven't provided any links to news about it.
Samanosuke Akechi
Member
Not much longer now. 2018 should start the PS5 rumors as we get closer to launch.
That would be...something.
That's basically 10x PS4 GPU and 3x Scorpio GPU.
Would be great, but I doubt it, unless it's coming in late 2021 or 2022.
If late 2019: ~10-12 TF
If late 2020: ~12-14 TF.
Yeah its an unrealistic expectation.
Another shit prediction from Pachter. Nothing about PS4 sales suggest that the PS4 Pro will become the default system. It has been a novelty at best in the Sony console lineup.
How often has this guy been right about anything involving the video game industry, and why do we continue to put his bull shit up on a pedistal?
The average Gaffer seems to have a better sense of the market and the future of gaming, and the average Gaffer has much less inside info then Pachter.
Just looking at Amazon numbers for the year, the PS4 is still selling super well. The PS4 Pro has been outsold by the Xbox One X Limeted Edition Scorpio in a matter of just a couple of a days, and a month or so later the standard Xbox One X just went on sale.
The audience for PS4 is significantly larger then the PS4 Pro. It is at the right price point, and will only become more affordable. Unless Sony simply phases out the regular PS4, I see no reason that there will be a significant shift.
How often has this guy been right about anything involving the video game industry, and why do we continue to put his bull shit up on a pedistal?
The average Gaffer seems to have a better sense of the market and the future of gaming, and the average Gaffer has much less inside info then Pachter.
Just looking at Amazon numbers for the year, the PS4 is still selling super well. The PS4 Pro has been outsold by the Xbox One X Limeted Edition Scorpio in a matter of just a couple of a days, and a month or so later the standard Xbox One X just went on sale.
The audience for PS4 is significantly larger then the PS4 Pro. It is at the right price point, and will only become more affordable. Unless Sony simply phases out the regular PS4, I see no reason that there will be a significant shift.
2019. Will PlayStation let Microsoft have the most powerful console for 3 years? I think that would be a mistake. By 2019 they could do a big step up from base PS4 and that is what majority of their customers have. It will seem like a big step to them. It might feel like a half step to PS4 Pro, but they have to launch at 399 again. It worked great for them this generation.
ThoseDeafMutes
Member
I mean that would be about the ballpark of what you'd want to blow the X1X and PS4 Pro away, offering equivalent-or-better resolution to the 1X in all titles while greatly increasing the visuals in other areas.
10tf could have passed as a generational leap if you didn't already have the half step consoles producing much higher resolutions. As it stands, you'd want to be releasing something in the 15-20tf range, while what is technically and economically plausible in the time-frame will push you to the bottom of that range (unless we get really lucky on the 7nm+ node and Navi's successor hits early).
Were just not going to see the kind of % GPU increases we have seen in the past. The Pro and X have devoured most of that.
Didn't I already reply to you with a link to the financials the first time?
Some Nobody
Junior Member
Do we need it, though? I mean, that sounds nice but...most people own a PS4, not a Pro. When they buy a PS5 they'll be blown away even if it's only 12TF.
ThoseDeafMutes
Member
The release of the Pro and the X is exactly why I think waiting until 2021 isn't as crazy as it seemed a few years ago. Like I don't think they would have released those systems if they intended to replace them by 2019, and if 2020 doesn't quite get them to where they wanted to then it's not going to be a huge stretch to do just one more year. But on the other hand, if they do get lucky with nodes and archs, then 16-18 tf would be conceptually plausible on Navi's successor.
The Pro simply isnt important enough to Sony to have it seriously effect their plans, and the X wasnt released by MS as a proactive move, but rather a defensive one. I dont think either of their existence should be coloring how we strategically view the next gen.
Samanosuke Akechi
Member
Just give me full PS4 BC, $399 launch price, excellent first and third party support and Ill be there day one.
Just like I was there for the first four playstation consoles. Bring on the 5th!
Just like I was there for the first four playstation consoles. Bring on the 5th!
Unless something very wrong along the way, those three reasons should be assured.
Yes. Vega too judging by the vastly inflated prices.
And now Jim keller is working with amd again to make tesla chips. The plan is to eventually phase out nvidia from their cars.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
Matt, are you saying 18TF is unrealistic, or 10-14TF in 2019/2020?
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
I still think fall 2019. Fall 2020 just seems so far away to me because I know they're not gonna release a console at any other time of the year.
I have the PS Pro and it's great but I don't see it becoming the main ps4. Especially since the base ps4 can still run everything that'll run on something targeting the pro, thanks to that potato cpu.
I could see more advertising being on pro versions of games though.
The scorpio seems like a bigger deal than the pro top me though. I could actually see that becoming the main Xbox one though. Because the base version can barely even get full 1080p games.
I have the PS Pro and it's great but I don't see it becoming the main ps4. Especially since the base ps4 can still run everything that'll run on something targeting the pro, thanks to that potato cpu.
I could see more advertising being on pro versions of games though.
The scorpio seems like a bigger deal than the pro top me though. I could actually see that becoming the main Xbox one though. Because the base version can barely even get full 1080p games.
Jaguar Victory
Member
If PS5 can hit 12-14Tflops, extra ram and bandwidth and a new CPU for $400 in 2020 then that's a pretty good deal. Sony should be happy with that.
New XBOX will probably come a year later with the appropriate updates a year allows.
The big kicker will be who gets BC right and allows folks to carry their libraries forward?
New XBOX will probably come a year later with the appropriate updates a year allows.
The big kicker will be who gets BC right and allows folks to carry their libraries forward?
bitbydeath
Member
18TF sounds about as realistic as 8TF. Sure it's possible but I wouldn't bet on it.
Melchiah
Member
Agreed, especially since no games are developed with Pro being the baseline. When games are made at 12TF baseline, it will blow away anything that's made at the current 1.84TF baseline.
wapplew
Member
I take $500-$600 PS5 Pro out of the gate instead of $399+$399...
Samanosuke Akechi
Member
Lol
Bitch Pudding
Member
As it's now being sold by almost a year (including launch and one holiday), supply issues have been solved and discounts as well as bundles are kicking in, it should be around 4mn units by now, 3,6mn at the very least.
I disagree, they'll go with a "5" because it enhances brand recognition cp. to "V". They even used the "4" in China and Japan, which shows how important this clear marketing message is for Sony.
ThoseDeafMutes
Member
There will be games that blow people away no matter what - in fact there are games that are yet to be released on the 1.84tf PS4 that will blow people away, without any increase in hardware power. But this is more a concern about overall performance, not whether a few specific games will look groundbreaking and massively improved. It's more like - will games on average look way better? Or will it just be the cutting edge ones from studios with real technical chops?
You say that there is going to be a major leap by leaving the 1.84tf behind, but that's not going to happen, at least not in multiplatform titles for the first 18-24 months, where cross-gen games will dominate the landscape and for the majority of titles, it will effectively be a "PS4 Pro Pro". In comparison to the baseline PS4, a significant fraction of the power difference between the 12tf and the 1.84 will be sucked up by the increased rendering resolution. I compare to Xbox One X in these circumstances mainly because that's where industry expectations will be. If an Xbox One X can render a game at 4k 30, then a PS5 with a good CPU, 12TF GPU, and improved memory bandwidth will be able to render that same game at 4k 60 with notably improved texturing. While nobody will turn their nose up at this, that's not very impressive in an absolute sense, particularly not when thinking about previous generational transitions.
At 12tf, the "operations per pixel" for the console has only increased by a factor of 2 compared to Xbox One X. Unless of course you want to say that they will be shipping games at consistently lower resolutions than the Xbox One X is, which, while possible, feels like it's going to be a PR disaster in the making if it was to be the norm from Sony first party.
Again, it's not like there won't be at least one Killzone Shadowfall that will wow people on day 1. But if CoD 2020 only looks somewhat better than the XB1X and PS4 Pro versions, then that's a tough sell. For people still stuck on 1080p tvs that year, it will be an even tougher sell.
Bitch Pudding
Member
@ThoseDeafMutes
This is why I hope that the next generation gets a massive CPU upgrade as well. Better resolution and effects are fine, but if that's all basically any PS5 game could be easily downscaled to PS4 levels.
I hope that the additional CPU power can be used to do things "only possible on PS5", like playing against a huge amount of players / enemies online and offline , massive AI improvements, even bigger open worlds, and so on.
If I had to visualize what I expect: Gran Turismo PS5 should be able to simulate the 24h Race of LeMans with 60 KI or player-controlled cars on track. Next step: 24h Race Nürburgring, 180 cars on track. Each AI driver with different skill set, of course.
This is why I hope that the next generation gets a massive CPU upgrade as well. Better resolution and effects are fine, but if that's all basically any PS5 game could be easily downscaled to PS4 levels.
I hope that the additional CPU power can be used to do things "only possible on PS5", like playing against a huge amount of players / enemies online and offline , massive AI improvements, even bigger open worlds, and so on.
If I had to visualize what I expect: Gran Turismo PS5 should be able to simulate the 24h Race of LeMans with 60 KI or player-controlled cars on track. Next step: 24h Race Nürburgring, 180 cars on track. Each AI driver with different skill set, of course.
Melchiah
Member
That's the thing, if the generational transition works the same way as before, the 1st party studios will be using the next gen system as a baseline. Even multiplatform titles like Destiny, Alien: Isolation, and Dragon Age: Inquisition were impressive on current gen systems despite of the last gen versions, and eventhough there wasn't such a big increase on CPU power.
For the Pro owners, 12TF will offer a good step up, not only with resolution and performance, but also with improved image quality and visual effects. I'd imagine the physics and AI can improve as well. If we take Horizon Zero Dawn as an example, the next gen sequel could have more realistic looking water and environmental physics among other things.
There won't be a PS4 portable.
Melchiah
Member
That's something I really don't want to see myself, but unfortunately the industry will probably continue with the open world fad and quantity-over-quality mentality for the foreseeable future.
Bioshocker
Member
Pachter. The man who changes his mind twice a day. I'd love being paid to make this kind of guessing.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
No, 18TF in 2019/2020 is completely unrealistic.
8TF would be far more realistic (however unlikely in my mind).
odhiex
Member
We'll see, I want to believe.
You can believe whatever you want but it won't happen.
There won't be a portable version of the exact same hardware in terms of architecture because of its inefficiency.
And they won't change the architecture as either
a) they had to recompile every game to run on the other architecure which won't happen or
b) they emulate the PS4 on the new architecture and that tech is not available yet, nor is the hardware being able to that from a computational point of view available yet. Especially not on mobile chips.
blastprocessor
The Amiga Brotherhood
AMD next mid-range 7nm GPU should exceed 10.0TF. Anything less for PS5 would be a disappointment. I still reckon 2019.
kraspkibble
Permabanned.
I think 2020 is OK.
PS4 is selling well so they can get away with milking it. The thing is I don't see the next gen Xbox coming out until 2020 at the earliest. A lot of people will end up pissed if Microsoft replace their £450 Xbox One X after just 2 years. Sony could release the PS5 in 2019 and get a headstart on the Xbox but if PS4 is still doing well then why not milk it a bit longer. That way we can get PS5/Xbox both in 2020. I am quite happy with my PS4 so won't mind if it lasts until 2020.
As for PS4 Pro becoming default. No chance. Not at £330-350 this far into the generation. Most people will go for the PS4 Slim. Release a PS4 Pro Slim for £250 then maybe. I'll be keeping my PS4 Slim until that happens...if it does. I'm not paying £300-350 for it especially with how stupid it looks.
PS4 is selling well so they can get away with milking it. The thing is I don't see the next gen Xbox coming out until 2020 at the earliest. A lot of people will end up pissed if Microsoft replace their £450 Xbox One X after just 2 years. Sony could release the PS5 in 2019 and get a headstart on the Xbox but if PS4 is still doing well then why not milk it a bit longer. That way we can get PS5/Xbox both in 2020. I am quite happy with my PS4 so won't mind if it lasts until 2020.
As for PS4 Pro becoming default. No chance. Not at £330-350 this far into the generation. Most people will go for the PS4 Slim. Release a PS4 Pro Slim for £250 then maybe. I'll be keeping my PS4 Slim until that happens...if it does. I'm not paying £300-350 for it especially with how stupid it looks.
You did, and I apologise for my testy reply.
OT - I'm 50/50 on 19/20 for launch, although I am in agreement on the announcement schedule matching the PS4 and PS5 being the base model, not the Pro.
2020 would mean incremental tech improvements tho, and would probably result in a smaller performance gap on any NextBox coming in 2012/22.
I'm still betting on 12TF, 16-24GB ram.
Dragonbinder
Neo Member
SwiftDeath just gave the correct answer lol
bitbydeath
Member
8TF is also completely unrealistic on the other end of the spectrum.
Yeah 8TF 3 years after the X would be quite underwhelming. Hoping for 10-12 but i guess Matt will shut me down on that?
Melchiah
Member
Same here.
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