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dno_1966
Junior Member
(09-02-2017, 08:56 AM)

Originally Posted by ClosingADoor

Well, if you can lose the money without a problem and you think it might get a good return. 5k would be a bit much for me on that. If I go for a stock I deem risky its mostly 1-1.5k.


I'm afraid it might be a bubble that is going to pop sometime and a lot of people are going to lose money. With stocks you can then wait for recovery, with crypto it might be the end for a lot of them after a crash.

Plus, you can't really protect yourself with things like a stop loss/limit I think.

And having to go through all these exchanges doesn't add to my trust in getting my money back from them when the thing comes crashing down.

You can do that.
ClosingADoor
Member
(09-03-2017, 08:47 PM)
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So... more North Korea and Trump talking about halting trade with China. Let's see how Europe opens tomorrow I guess. Should be interesting.

Originally Posted by dno_1966

You can do that.

Ah, never knew that. So it works just like stock trading then. Still not getting into it myself though.
Makai
Member
(09-04-2017, 07:21 AM)
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I put $100 into Robin Hood as gambling fun, but I don't even know what to get. Paralyzed by rational expectations. I just bought a bunch of cheap junk stocks that I could afford like Twitter and GoPro.
Ecotic
Member
(09-05-2017, 05:53 PM)
So with regards to my structured trading model I talked about a few pages back, I'm super glad I realized this in time, but I feel stupid for not realizing it during the past 2 years while I was keeping records. Apparently it's not until you actually put money on the line that it focuses the mind to make the model efficient.

So my model was super conservative with regards to targets to keep a very high win rate. For example, in the picture below two weeks ago my model gave me a buy signal at the time of the green arrow, and my 75 cent targets were hit the following day on the red arrow. However, due to the unidirectional movement of the Russell 2000 I didn't get another signal for the entire week. This situation happens quite often that I sit out for 5-10 days while the Russell moves continuously in one direction or another. By setting conservative targets I give up all those gains from the unidirectional move. Nearly as worse, whenever I sit out during a huge run my model's results deteriorate because the average amount of signals I get per day drops, as does my average profit per day, all despite not being involved within a trade.

However, it turns out if I merely close out my position upon the next signal my win rate drops down to about 50% but my total profitability improves by over 200%, which due to the exponential nature of the model means about 6 times more money per year. The average gain per win increases by 250% while the average loss increases by about half. What happens is I end up closing out a signal after a huge run of $3-5 or even higher (the month-long run after the 2016 election, for example). A closed trade after a huge run of a few dollars is worth many times the $.575 profit gained from my previous model after a successful signal that hit my $.4 and $.75 targets. The results of the new model from non-volatile periods that don't result in huge runs is not much worse, just about 20% worse.

The new model's rules are a lot more uncomfortable to enact since I don't close out the position when I have hit profitable targets, but I'm excited about it if I can keep my discipline about me.
Maybesew
Member
(09-05-2017, 07:20 PM)
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Originally Posted by Ecotic


The new model's rules are a lot more uncomfortable to enact since I don't close out the position when I have hit profitable targets, but I'm excited about it if I can keep my discipline about me.

If you like math, models and tuning win % and profit/loss, let me suggest tasty trade to you. It's entirely probability based trading based on market efficiency. They have a ton of published research on the site, and do something like 10 hours a day of live video content.

They do completely ignore charts though, so that might take a while for you to adjust to.

edit: here's an old video that is a good example of the kind of stuff they do https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/...ock-05-24-2016
Last edited by Maybesew; 09-05-2017 at 07:26 PM.
Ecotic
Member
(09-05-2017, 07:34 PM)

Originally Posted by Maybesew

If you like math, models and tuning win % and profit/loss, let me suggest tasty trade to you. It's entirely probability based trading based on market efficiency. They have a ton of published research on the site, and do something like 10 hours a day of live video content.

They do completely ignore charts though, so that might take a while for you to adjust to.

edit: here's an old video that is a good example of the kind of stuff they do https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/...ock-05-24-2016

I've researched them quite a bit, and they seem to be a sham to give business to TDAmeritrade. I've seen a lot of video analysis that shows their system just won't work, because it produces too few signals, has too little open interest, the spreads on options are simply too large, and the losses their system suffers are more severe than they let on, and the gains not as great as they say. Their system also can wipe out your entire account in a stretch of an unfavorable market environment.

This guy lays out the problems with it.

Honestly I don't see how anyone gets options strategies to work, it seems a 50 cent move in the underlying against you hurts you more than a 50 cent move in the underlying towards you. My system only has the 1 to 2 penny spread in the Russell 2000 leveraged etf working against me.
Maybesew
Member
(09-06-2017, 01:38 PM)
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Originally Posted by Ecotic

I've researched them quite a bit, and they seem to be a sham to give business to TDAmeritrade. I've seen a lot of video analysis that shows their system just won't work, because it produces too few signals, has too little open interest, the spreads on options are simply too large, and the losses their system suffers are more severe than they let on, and the gains not as great as they say. Their system also can wipe out your entire account in a stretch of an unfavorable market environment.

This guy lays out the problems with it.

Honestly I don't see how anyone gets options strategies to work, it seems a 50 cent move in the underlying against you hurts you more than a 50 cent move in the underlying towards you. My system only has the 1 to 2 penny spread in the Russell 2000 leveraged etf working against me.

I'll check out your video but your take is way off. First of all, they aren't even affiliated with TD anymore. They started their own brokerage company and cut commissions by 50-80% of what TD charged and more compared to other companies.

As for your other question, I've been trading options exclusively for about two years and my account is doing just fine.

And regarding your question about a 50 cent move, that's where I think you might actually enjoy learning about. There are lots of options metrics, known as Greeks that can tell you ahead of time what would happen what will happen to your position.

Edit: just watched the video and the dude a) doesn't seem very bright b) his results make no sense to the point where I think he just made them up c) tasty trade doesn't suggest an entire portfolio of a single strategy (in his case he only sold strangles) so it's not even a decent comparison to what anyone would do in real life
Last edited by Maybesew; 09-06-2017 at 01:45 PM.
Tom Penny
Member
(09-06-2017, 03:21 PM)
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I've had Merrimack pharmaceutical on my watchlist for a while and never pulled the trigger. It's up over 800% today :(
Evon
Member
(09-06-2017, 04:37 PM)
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Originally Posted by Tom Penny

I've had Merrimack pharmaceutical on my watchlist for a while and never pulled the trigger. It's up over 800% today :(

They did a 10-to-1 reverse stock split today: http://investors.merrimack.com/relea...easeID=1038794

I had a similar freak out with WaferGen back then.
Tom Penny
Member
(09-06-2017, 06:26 PM)
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Originally Posted by Evon

They did a 10-to-1 reverse stock split today: http://investors.merrimack.com/relea...easeID=1038794

I had a similar freak out with WaferGen back then.

Yeah just read that lol
Mrbob
how can the baaasheep
enjoy the shootbang?
(09-06-2017, 06:26 PM)
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I jumped in on the ULTA salon train around 215...plan on riding this back up to 300 hopefully. At least 275...got oversold on good earnings. It's been choppily moving back up...just need to get above some of those moving averages again.

I usually don't like stops but in this case I did around 210. Try to keep any loss minimal.

Originally Posted by Tom Penny

I've had Merrimack pharmaceutical on my watchlist for a while and never pulled the trigger. It's up over 800% today :(

You are lucky not to be in it. It's lost so much value on it's way down and reverse split today...that's why it is up.
Last edited by Mrbob; 09-06-2017 at 07:41 PM.
BeforeU
Banned
(09-07-2017, 12:40 PM)
Been out of the game for a week due to personal reasons. Man USD is just taking hit, when will it stop. I lost almost 6k CAD in last 3 months.
Ether_Snake
安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
(09-07-2017, 01:19 PM)
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The CAD is strengthening a lot too. I think it will keep rising until we have a real estate crisis.
TCRS
Banned
(09-08-2017, 08:50 AM)
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Welp got liquidated while sleeping. Lost 380 euros on EUR/USD, betting the wrong way. I'm not even mad I know it's part of the game. I wanted too much too quick with too little knowledge and got burned. I'm going to watch and learn more now before I do anything.
Maybesew
Member
(09-08-2017, 03:50 PM)
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Originally Posted by TCRS

Welp got liquidated while sleeping. Lost 380 euros on EUR/USD, betting the wrong way. I'm not even mad I know it's part of the game. I wanted too much too quick with too little knowledge and got burned. I'm going to watch and learn more now before I do anything.

Do you trade this in spot forex markets or with futures contracts?
RMI
Member
(09-08-2017, 04:44 PM)
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took a bath on GE hitting my stop. I think I'm done with individual stocks for a while. basically did really well during earnings season in May on all my stocks and got greedy with this one when it looked like it was attractive, in spite of all loud warnings.
ClosingADoor
Member
(09-08-2017, 04:52 PM)
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Ahold taking a dive again. I need about 20% to get into the green. Going to look like this one will stay in the portfolio for some time.
Maybesew
Member
(09-08-2017, 06:53 PM)
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Originally Posted by RMI

took a bath on GE hitting my stop. I think I'm done with individual stocks for a while. basically did really well during earnings season in May on all my stocks and got greedy with this one when it looked like it was attractive, in spite of all loud warnings.

trade small, trade often
Unknown Soldier
Member
(09-08-2017, 06:58 PM)
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I wonder if TRU is a pretty serious snap buying opportunity right now.
longdi
Member
(09-09-2017, 10:19 AM)
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Hey investa-gaf, is there a place where it explains the meanings of all financial terms/products?

Are these terms purposely created to confuse?

Like stocks,shares, securities, equities, derivatives, futures,options,fixed income,coupon, interest, exchange traded otc, clearing house, brokerages.

Some of them seems to do the same thing, but have different names. The more it obfuscate, the easier to to scam?
Evon
Member
(09-09-2017, 10:22 AM)
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Maybe try http://www.investopedia.com/dictionary/
ClosingADoor
Member
(09-09-2017, 11:20 AM)
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Originally Posted by longdi

Hey investa-gaf, is there a place where it explains the meanings of all financial terms/products?

Are these terms purposely created to confuse?

Like stocks,shares, securities, equities, derivatives, futures,options,fixed income,coupon, interest, exchange traded otc, clearing house, brokerages.

Some of them seems to do the same thing, but have different names. The more it obfuscate, the easier to to scam?

Most things not really. I mean, when you get into plumbing for the first time, you probably don't know the names of each different pipe also. Investopedia is a good source. But if you just start out, probably best to stay away from the more complicated products and stick to the basics.
longdi
Member
(09-09-2017, 12:06 PM)
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I been reading investopia and wikipedia, and i still can't get my head around some terms. Its like the financial planners purposefully added layers onto layers, to create a "new" product or new markets. You have brokers and then you have another inter-dealer brokers, middle man of a middle man
SecretMoblin
Member
(09-09-2017, 07:41 PM)
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It's less a conspiracy to scam people than it is a bunch of traders and finance nerds coming up with all sorts of terms to justify their behavior post hoc, then thrown into a marketing blender. Lots of concepts and products get developed as a way to navigate around the laws and SEC regulations, too.

For the average investor, the amount of terms or financial instruments you need to be familiar with is quite small. And if you're not throwing around heavy amounts of money, paying for a financial planner isn't ideal anyway.
ClosingADoor
Member
(09-11-2017, 03:42 PM)
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Nice green day. Tencent up 4% today. Good to see.
Mrbob
how can the baaasheep
enjoy the shootbang?
(09-11-2017, 03:59 PM)
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Big rebound day for tech...will it hold? Curious to see Apple holds tommorow or sells off after the conference is over.
Captain Smoker
"Hey! What's your name
  then?"
"Mancomb Seepgood."
(09-11-2017, 04:53 PM)
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Tech up. Euro down.

Good day. ^^
Last edited by Captain Smoker; 09-11-2017 at 08:28 PM.
Joe
Member
(09-11-2017, 08:35 PM)
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My original $BOTZ position from March is up 21% in 5.5 months, up 13% overall.



(Purchased in my IRA account)
Last edited by Joe; 09-11-2017 at 08:37 PM.
Ether_Snake
安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
(09-12-2017, 01:32 AM)
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DIS and NKE reaching attractive price targets for me. Not planning to do stock picking though, so still not buying.
Natetan
Member
(09-13-2017, 03:26 PM)
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Guess investors not optimistic about the new iPhone...
BeforeU
Banned
(09-13-2017, 06:47 PM)

Originally Posted by Natetan

Guess investors not optimistic about the new iPhone...

iPhone X is already priced in after they said its not going to be delayed on their earnings call. Its going to sell gangbusters. The only hurdle will be manufacturing it. They will sell as fast as they make.
Natetan
Member
(09-13-2017, 07:01 PM)
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Originally Posted by BeforeU

iPhone X is already priced in after they said its not going to be delayed on their earnings call. Its going to sell gangbusters. The only hurdle will be manufacturing it. They will sell as fast as they make.

Then I guess 2% drop in stock since yesterday is a negative reaction to the new Steve Jobs auditorium ?
Unknown Soldier
Member
(09-13-2017, 08:07 PM)
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Originally Posted by Natetan

Guess investors not optimistic about the new iPhone...

Do people actually still get surprised that Apple runs up before product announcements and drops immediately afterwards?
tokkun
Member
(09-13-2017, 08:34 PM)
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Originally Posted by Unknown Soldier

Do people actually still get surprised that Apple runs up before product announcements and drops immediately afterwards?

If this drop is so predictable, why not make a fortune shorting the stock?
BeforeU
Banned
(09-13-2017, 09:26 PM)

Originally Posted by Natetan

Then I guess 2% drop in stock since yesterday is a negative reaction to the new Steve Jobs auditorium ?

Stock goes up and down. It ended with -0.75%

Come on now. Lets not exaggerate.
Natetan
Member
(09-13-2017, 09:32 PM)
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Seems like most of the recent run up was due to earnings not product launch.
Maybesew
Member
(09-13-2017, 10:29 PM)
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Markets move and are random. Trying to attribute moves to specific reasons is fruitless
Mrbob
how can the baaasheep
enjoy the shootbang?
(09-15-2017, 04:44 AM)
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GBTC has dropped from like 900 to 500 and still is around a 50% premium to Bitcoin.

Cryptocurrenies having a tough go of it right now.

Apple stock has held better than I thought it would post conference. I think the drop is purely due to the late release of the Iphone X.
Unknown Soldier
Member
(09-15-2017, 04:48 AM)
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I wish I had a margin account and that I ever traded on margin. I could have made a killing shorting EFX the past week. Sigh.

It's probably better if I never get a margin account.
Mrbob
how can the baaasheep
enjoy the shootbang?
(09-15-2017, 04:23 PM)
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Nvidia doing it again.

Stock upgrades and broke through previous all time high resistance. Going to 200 now is my guess.
Unknown Soldier
Member
(09-15-2017, 04:33 PM)
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NVDA shatters the ATH ceiling with Conviction after analyst upgrade. We going to the Moon, baby!
Maybesew
Member
(09-15-2017, 05:54 PM)
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Originally Posted by Unknown Soldier

I wish I had a margin account and that I ever traded on margin. I could have made a killing shorting EFX the past week. Sigh.

It's probably better if I never get a margin account.

I think it went none to borrow pretty quickly so it was hard to get short
Maxximo
Member
(09-15-2017, 06:01 PM)
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Should have bought 300 more when it dipped to 150-155...oh well better something than nothing.

The past week the combo baba+meli+oled+nvda has done wonders to my portfolio. Today was expecting a fall with the missle over Japan but apparently it's already old news...
ClosingADoor
Member
(09-18-2017, 03:33 PM)
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Tencent going above $44 for the first time. BABA on its way to $180. Hopefully it keeps rising.
dno_1966
Junior Member
(09-18-2017, 04:05 PM)
NVDA up nearly 5% today...
Unknown Soldier
Member
(09-18-2017, 11:52 PM)
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Just setting up the next run-up before earnings and then drop. If you're looking to buy in and experience The Way Money's Meant To Be Made, earnings will be a good time to buy the dip.
thestopsign
Member
(Today, 07:49 PM)
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Nintendo up enough for me to buy a few more Switch if I can find them.

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