• Register
  • TOS
  • Privacy
  • @NeoGAF
  • Like

Sawneeks
Member
(09-05-2017, 11:35 PM)
Sawneeks's Avatar

Originally Posted by nin1000

Sometimes we have to take what we get

Hmmm, true. I appreciate your optimism, Nin.

Speaking of, how are you? We didn't really get a chance to chat in LB2. :<
Sawneeks
Member
(09-05-2017, 11:38 PM)
Sawneeks's Avatar
Also for the record, I'm not entirely against No Lynching on Even Day Phases to help lessen the confusion of who might flip what. There's pros and cons to both sides and I was debating them in my head while I got lunch but I'm not against it...

I do feel today we should lynch just because we'll get that Anti-Town dead number the next Day Phase but after that it's really just up for debate.
Verelios
Member
(09-05-2017, 11:43 PM)
Verelios's Avatar

Originally Posted by hey_monkey

Yeah, the way flips are handled is going to take some adjustment.

No adjustment, either git gud or go home.

On the topic of lynch or no lynch, I'm going to go for lynch, always. I don't want to give scum and arsonist time to plan and prepare, I don't want to give them leeway and I especially don't want town getting complacent because there's no incentive to scum hunt today. Dead air has to be scum's favorite mode of progress and I'll be damned if I let that happen.
hey_monkey
Member
(09-05-2017, 11:48 PM)
hey_monkey's Avatar

Originally Posted by Sawneeks

Also for the record, I'm not entirely against No Lynching on Even Day Phases to help lessen the confusion of who might flip what. There's pros and cons to both sides and I was debating them in my head while I got lunch but I'm not against it...

I do feel today we should lynch just because we'll get that Anti-Town dead number the next Day Phase but after that it's really just up for debate.

Yeah, on reconsideration if we happen to hit scum today we'll know, whereas in later phases we can't be as sure. So that's intriguing.

Originally Posted by Verelios

No adjustment, either git gud or go home.

On the topic of lynch or no lynch, I'm going to go for lynch, always. I don't want to give scum and arsonist time to plan and prepare, I don't want to give them leeway and I especially don't want town getting complacent because there's no incentive to scum hunt today. Dead air has to be scum's favorite mode of progress and I'll be damned if I let that happen.

Arsonist can plan. Mafia can't plan as a team so they have to adjust too. (One hopes.)
CornBurrito
Member
(09-06-2017, 12:26 AM)
CornBurrito's Avatar

Originally Posted by hey_monkey

Yeah, on reconsideration if we happen to hit scum today we'll know, whereas in later phases we can't be as sure. So that's intriguing.



Arsonist can plan. Mafia can't plan as a team so they have to adjust too. (One hopes.)

Honestly I think this is probably easy on Mafia. I've been scum before. There hasn't often been much debate on targets. Since they still know who the other scum are they can't misfire.

Town loses a major weapon in flips.
Mafia loses a minor thing ultimately that isn't even needed in a lot of cases.

Arsonist gets the most benefit here.
oreomunsta
Member
(09-06-2017, 01:00 AM)
oreomunsta's Avatar
Hi everyone!

I see that we're exploring lynch versus no lynch. Since we're on two day flip cycles, would lynching one day, and no lynch the next be productive?

My concern with that approach is that it still gives scum the edge :/
isaacnukem
Member
(09-06-2017, 01:15 AM)
isaacnukem's Avatar

Originally Posted by Sawneeks

Just the arsonist, not scum?

#scumtells :p

I've been burned before. :P
isaacnukem
Member
(09-06-2017, 01:21 AM)
isaacnukem's Avatar
Also doesn't it bother people that the neutral cannot be killed at night?
Trigger
Member
(09-06-2017, 01:41 AM)
Trigger's Avatar

Originally Posted by isaacnukem

Also doesn't it bother people that the neutral cannot be killed at night?

Not really. It gives us cover. The neutral is essentially bulletproof and a kill launched at them is a wasted shot for scum. The fact that they can blow us up is more troubling.
kitsunelaine
Member
(09-06-2017, 02:07 AM)
kitsunelaine's Avatar
And so it begins.

VOTE: flatearthpandas

You know what you did. That one time. In that one game. :(

I'd vote for Fran but Fran isn't in this game, boo.

Anyway. Here we are! Day one! Let's do this thing! My vote is lynching someone. Anyone.
Verelios
Member
(09-06-2017, 02:11 AM)
Verelios's Avatar

Originally Posted by isaacnukem

Also doesn't it bother people that the neutral cannot be killed at night?

No? Pretty sure they'll be more likely to try and stay middling/inoffensive since they can only be lynched. Not very bad for us if they tank NK's and we lynch them before they burn someone up (they need a night to douse, so I wouldn't be worried).
StanleyPalmtree
Member
(09-06-2017, 02:11 AM)
StanleyPalmtree's Avatar
hell yeah we should be lynching. pressure is a valuable tool to help figure people out, and without an actual lynch happening there isnt any real pressure.

also no lynch's are just boring.

Originally Posted by nin1000

activating..pain mode......
:
:
:
:
......................................ok.............

PAIN MODE!


ACTIVE

how dare you!
Verelios
Member
(09-06-2017, 02:12 AM)
Verelios's Avatar

Originally Posted by kitsunelaine

And so it begins.

VOTE: flatearthpandas

You know what you did. That one time. In that one game. :(

I'd vote for Fran but Fran isn't in this game, boo.

Anyway. Here we are! Day one! Let's do this thing! My vote is lynching someone. Anyone.

Okay, great.

Just to clarify, that last statement was a blanket statement right? You're not going to literally vote anyone off the island regardless are you?
kitsunelaine
Member
(09-06-2017, 02:15 AM)
kitsunelaine's Avatar

Originally Posted by Verelios

Okay, great.

Just to clarify, that last statement was a blanket statement right? You're not going to literally vote anyone off the island regardless are you?

Yeah it was a blanket statement. I'm open to reasoned arguments to vote for whomever.
CornBurrito
Member
(09-06-2017, 02:24 AM)
CornBurrito's Avatar
Let's MATH

Big Hat Logan
Solaire of Astora
Sirris of the Sunless Realm
Adherent of The Way of Blue x 10
Yuria of Londor
Darkwraith x 2
Chaos Servant

This means: 13 Town, 3 scum, 1 neutral SK.

Town must eliminate all 4 threats.

Assuming worst case scenario:

D1 = 1 town dead
N1 = 2 town dead

-- 10 town, 3 scum, 1 SK.

D2 - no lynch because even day
N2 - 2
CornBurrito
Member
(09-06-2017, 02:27 AM)
CornBurrito's Avatar
fuck...... i hit enter too soon. repost time.

Let's MATH

Big Hat Logan
Solaire of Astora
Sirris of the Sunless Realm
Adherent of The Way of Blue x 10
Yuria of Londor
Darkwraith x 2
Chaos Servant

This means: 13 Town, 3 scum, 1 neutral SK.

Town must eliminate all 4 threats.

Assuming worst case scenario:

D1 = 1 town dead
N1 = 2 town dead

-- 10 town, 3 scum, 1 SK.

D2 - no lynch because even day
N2 - 2 town dead.

-- 8 town, 3 scum, 1 SK

D3 - 1 town dead
N3 = 2 town dead

5 town, 3 scum, 1 SK...

by this point we lose almost certainly.

However lets say that not lynching D2 gives us the info we need

D1 = 1 town dead
N1 = 2 town dead

-- 10 town, 3 scum, 1 SK.

D2 - no lynch because even day
N2 - 2 town dead.

-- 8 town, 3 scum, 1 SK

D3 - 1 scum dead
N3 = 2 town dead

6 town, 2 scum, 1 SK...


And I realize this analysis forgot that SK can't kill each night.

Making it all worthless. Will math when less tired.
isaacnukem
Member
(09-06-2017, 02:53 AM)
isaacnukem's Avatar
I can't even math on my best.
kitsunelaine
Member
(09-06-2017, 03:39 AM)
kitsunelaine's Avatar
What's a math?
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
(09-06-2017, 03:40 AM)
YesNOnoNOYes's Avatar
DAY 1 CURRENT VOTE TALLY:

isaacnukem (1)
Lord of Castamere 96

Verelios (1)
Burbeting 67

Christina Mackenzie (1)
CornBurrito 89

Burbeting (1)
Sawneeks 44

flatearthpandas (1)
kitsunelaine 110

No active vote for Day 1: Fireblend, nin1000, Muffin1611, isaacnukem, Verelios, Trigger, oreomunsta, flatearthpandas, StanleyPalmtree, Christina Mackenzie, hey_monkey, rac

Day 1 Postcount: Burbeting 11, Fireblend 0, nin1000 6, Muffin1611 6, isaacnukem 5, Verelios 4, kitsunelaine 2, Trigger 3, oreomunsta 1, flatearthpandas 3, StanleyPalmtree 1, CornBurrito 5, Christina Mackenzie 0, hey_monkey 11, Sawneeks 11, Lord of Castamere 3, rac 2


Day 1 ends:



9 votes for majority
flatearthpandas
Member
(09-06-2017, 03:51 AM)
flatearthpandas's Avatar
Just to be clear, we definitely lynch today. Once someone figures out how to math, we can make a better choice about even days. I can't math ever.

Originally Posted by kitsunelaine

And so it begins.

VOTE: flatearthpandas

You know what you did. That one time. In that one game. :(

I'd vote for Fran but Fran isn't in this game, boo.

Anyway. Here we are! Day one! Let's do this thing! My vote is lynching someone. Anyone.

Honeymoon's over, I guess. :(
oreomunsta
Member
(09-06-2017, 04:00 AM)
oreomunsta's Avatar
I might be slow on the uptake, but these are the win conditions for each group, right?

Town: Kill all scum AND kill neutral
Scum: Kill neutral AND either have all town killed or have more members active than town
Neutral: Kill all town AND kill all scum
kitsunelaine
Member
(09-06-2017, 04:00 AM)
kitsunelaine's Avatar

Originally Posted by flatearthpandas

Honeymoon's over, I guess. :(

you broke my heart fep </3
StanleyPalmtree
Member
(09-06-2017, 04:05 AM)
StanleyPalmtree's Avatar

Originally Posted by kitsunelaine

What's a math?

pretty sure its some kind of candy.
isaacnukem
Member
(09-06-2017, 04:12 AM)
isaacnukem's Avatar

Originally Posted by StanleyPalmtree

pretty sure its some kind of candy.

I'd say its taste is divisive
kitsunelaine
Member
(09-06-2017, 04:14 AM)
kitsunelaine's Avatar

Originally Posted by isaacnukem

I'd say its taste is divisive

really subtracts from the flavour
Fireblend
No Member
(09-06-2017, 04:20 AM)
Fireblend's Avatar
Hey guys, forgot this started today. I'll be around tomorrow for sure. I'm all caught up but not in a position to do much thinking atm.
Trigger
Member
(09-06-2017, 04:24 AM)
Trigger's Avatar
Trying to predict the neutral's actions is fruitless. Scum will use their kill every night regardless, but the arsonist can kill several people in one go or just every other night.

Originally Posted by oreomunsta

I might be slow on the uptake, but these are the win conditions for each group, right?

Town: Kill all scum AND kill neutral
Scum: Kill neutral AND either have all town killed or have more members active than town
Neutral: Kill all town AND kill all scum

Yeah, this is my understanding.
oreomunsta
Member
(09-06-2017, 04:31 AM)
oreomunsta's Avatar

Originally Posted by Trigger

Trying to predict the neutral's actions is fruitless. Scum will use their kill every night regardless, but the arsonist can kill several people in one go or just every other night.



Yeah, this is my understanding.

Cool, thanks :)

The only thing I may change from the statement is that the game may keep running even if scum have majority, because there's a still a chance that they'd screw up with a lack of communication.

The arsonist is also more effective the less number of times they pull the trigger, too, it seems, since igniting sounds like it's the night turn
Sawneeks
Member
(09-06-2017, 04:34 AM)
Sawneeks's Avatar

Originally Posted by kitsunelaine

And so it begins.

VOTE: flatearthpandas

You know what you did. That one time. In that one game. :(

I'd vote for Fran but Fran isn't in this game, boo.

Anyway. Here we are! Day one! Let's do this thing! My vote is lynching someone. Anyone.

Anyone, eh? Even yourself?

Didn't know you and FEP were going through a rough patch after LB2. :<

Originally Posted by kitsunelaine

really subtracts from the flavour

boooo
Sawneeks
Member
(09-06-2017, 04:39 AM)
Sawneeks's Avatar
Unvote

We're just waiting to hear from CM and Fire, right? Everyone else has checked in and contributed something so far at the very least.
kitsunelaine
Member
(09-06-2017, 04:51 AM)
kitsunelaine's Avatar

Originally Posted by Sawneeks

Anyone, eh? Even yourself?

Didn't know you and FEP were going through a rough patch after LB2. :<

Especially myself. Who knows what secrets I'm hiding. I might even be... A townie!

FEP voted for me during LB2. :<
Verelios
Member
(09-06-2017, 05:27 AM)
Verelios's Avatar

Originally Posted by Fireblend

Hey guys, forgot this started today. I'll be around tomorrow for sure. I'm all caught up but not in a position to do much thinking atm.

Originally Posted by Sawneeks

Unvote

We're just waiting to hear from CM and Fire, right? Everyone else has checked in and contributed something so far at the very least.

Hmmm, Fire just checked in above, so I think it's just CM and LC.
Verelios
Member
(09-06-2017, 05:28 AM)
Verelios's Avatar
Actually, just CM probably, my bad.
Christina Mackenzie
(09-06-2017, 05:30 AM)
Christina Mackenzie's Avatar

Originally Posted by oreomunsta

I might be slow on the uptake, but these are the win conditions for each group, right?

Town: Kill all scum AND kill neutral
Scum: Kill neutral AND either have all town killed or have more members active than town
Neutral: Kill all town AND kill all scum

Your right on Town and Neutral win conditions. Scum can't win simply by having the numerical advantage, they need to kill all town and the neutral.

Darkwraiths win condition in the OP is

You win when all threats to The Darkwraiths have been eliminated.

VOTE: CornBurrito

That's for your terrible math post.

I've been away for so long I actually forgot the tag for voting.
flatearthpandas
Member
(09-06-2017, 05:34 AM)
flatearthpandas's Avatar

Originally Posted by oreomunsta

Neutral: Kill everyone

Originally Posted by kitsunelaine

FEP voted for me during LB2. :<

Inaccurate.
These darned communication issues. :/
kitsunelaine
Member
(09-06-2017, 06:00 AM)
kitsunelaine's Avatar

Originally Posted by flatearthpandas

Inaccurate.
These darned communication issues. :/

What is love, anyway?
Christina Mackenzie
(09-06-2017, 06:09 AM)
Christina Mackenzie's Avatar
So let's assume the likely scenario that town can't lynch to save their lives.

Starting the game with 13 Town, 3 Scum, 1 Neutral

Burrow is the neutral's ability to mark a player for death at a later time.

D1 - Lynch Town
N1 - Kill Town, Burrow Town

Cumulative body count = 2 Town dead, 1 Town dying
Number of Players left = 15

D2 - Lynch Town
N2 - Kill Town, Burrow Town

Cumulative body count = 4 Town dead, 2 Town dying
Number of Players left = 13

D3 - Lynch Town
N3 - Kill Town, Burrow Town

Cumulative body count = 6 Town dead, 3 Town dying
Number of Players left = 11

I'm assuming the Neutral will hold of Igniting his victims till the end game so dying players are still in it and Mafia/Neutral keep hitting town.
hey_monkey
Member
(09-06-2017, 06:13 AM)
hey_monkey's Avatar
The math is why I'm hesitant to lynch as normal. That combined with the known presence of a cop and the lack of flips. Just seems like we need to shake up strategy. Scum and neutral will do what they do. But we need to figure best plans.

I think everyone has posted actually. And we're full steam ahead!
Christina Mackenzie
(09-06-2017, 06:23 AM)
Christina Mackenzie's Avatar
Lynching someone today will let us know exactly how things at the start of Day 2. After that we're in an information blackout until Day 4 since we won't know if whom we lynched was town or not. That's another whole can of worms.

We lynch someone today and find out the number of threats remaining tomorrow.

4 threats remaining
We lynched a townie

3 threats remaining
We lynched either mafia or the neutral since the neutral can't be night killed.
Christina Mackenzie
(09-06-2017, 06:31 AM)
Christina Mackenzie's Avatar

Originally Posted by hey_monkey

The math is why I'm hesitant to lynch as normal. That combined with the known presence of a cop and the lack of flips. Just seems like we need to shake up strategy. Scum and neutral will do what they do. But we need to figure best plans.

I think everyone has posted actually. And we're full steam ahead!

We have a cop, a hypnotist and a doctor. Problem I see right now with the cop is we don't get role flips if they are lynched or night killed. How can we verify with absolute certainty that their investigations are true?

With the hypnotist, there is no confirmation either.

It looks like we're back to scum hunting to root out the threats.
hey_monkey
Member
(09-06-2017, 06:31 AM)
hey_monkey's Avatar
Yeah, because of the schedule we do need to do today. But I like the idea of every other day thatvwas suggested. The real question is though: how are we gonna reconcile voting records without flips in later days? Patterns will exist but not with clear links.
Christina Mackenzie
(09-06-2017, 06:38 AM)
Christina Mackenzie's Avatar

Originally Posted by Verelios

No adjustment, either git gud or go home.

On the topic of lynch or no lynch, I'm going to go for lynch, always. I don't want to give scum and arsonist time to plan and prepare, I don't want to give them leeway and I especially don't want town getting complacent because there's no incentive to scum hunt today. Dead air has to be scum's favorite mode of progress and I'll be damned if I let that happen.

I'd normally applaud this sort of positive attitude but it completely comes across as trying too hard. Who are you aiming to impress?
oreomunsta
Member
(09-06-2017, 06:55 AM)
oreomunsta's Avatar
Hey CM, I think that neutral has to either choose to burrow, or to ignite. That's what I get out of the OP. That's at least one saving grace to the neutral threat
kitsunelaine
Member
(09-06-2017, 06:57 AM)
kitsunelaine's Avatar
I have no idea how Neutral will play in this game. We won't even know if we get the neutral, so the threat of dousing will last for a while after death. If I were Neutral I'd do something like, not douse anyone after the first death which would lead people to suspect the Neutral had been caught.
kitsunelaine
Member
(09-06-2017, 06:59 AM)
kitsunelaine's Avatar
...And that's why you should never start a train of thought post with "I have no idea how x will play".
Christina Mackenzie
(09-06-2017, 07:00 AM)
Christina Mackenzie's Avatar

Originally Posted by hey_monkey

Yeah, because of the schedule we do need to do today. But I like the idea of every other day thatvwas suggested. The real question is though: how are we gonna reconcile voting records without flips in later days? Patterns will exist but not with clear links.

I believe it was initially Sawneeks' suggestion to do a no lynch on alternate days. It's an interesting idea that give us some certainty for our investigations. I need to mull over it. The downside to deciding to a no lynch is that we may have nothing worthy to discuss on that day phase.

If we decide to go ahead with lynching every day phase and come to a scenario where 1 of those lynches might have been mafia we'll just have to assume both are, work from there and see where it leads.
isaacnukem
Member
(09-06-2017, 07:01 AM)
isaacnukem's Avatar

Originally Posted by kitsunelaine

I have no idea how Neutral will play in this game. We won't even know if we get the neutral, so the threat of dousing will last for a while after death. If I were Neutral I'd do something like, not douse anyone after the first death which would lead people to suspect the Neutral had been caught.

I think if someone has been doused they'll know. Not sure in this game.
oreomunsta
Member
(09-06-2017, 07:08 AM)
oreomunsta's Avatar

Originally Posted by kitsunelaine

I have no idea how Neutral will play in this game. We won't even know if we get the neutral, so the threat of dousing will last for a while after death. If I were Neutral I'd do something like, not douse anyone after the first death which would lead people to suspect the Neutral had been caught.

Yeah, neutral is as spooky as a Black Knight :<

Squids, this game is fricking great. Everything feels like it's laid out in front of you, but it's just so difficult!

At this point, there's no sense trying to forecast. The amount of possibilities that scum and neutral can do in just two nights splits the odds so much.

The most I can say is that at the worst case scenario, in which Town always gets killed, the game lasts six nights or less, depending on how neutral plays during those days... I don't know if the lynchD1/no-lynchD2 is a good strategy for Town to figure who was lynched on D1
flatearthpandas
Member
(09-06-2017, 07:19 AM)
flatearthpandas's Avatar

Originally Posted by oreomunsta

Yeah, neutral is as spooky as a Black Knight :<

Squids, this game is fricking great. Everything feels like it's laid out in front of you, but it's just so difficult!

At this point, there's no sense trying to forecast. The amount of possibilities that scum and neutral can do in just two nights splits the odds so much.

The most I can say is that at the worst case scenario, in which Town always gets killed, the game lasts six nights or less, depending on how neutral plays during those days... I don't know if the lynchD1/no-lynchD2 is a good strategy for Town to figure who was lynched on D1

We'll know who got lynched d1 regardless of what we decide to do. But lynching every day, that might be the only sure thing we know barring a cop claim or the hypnotist action.

And considering that has no confirmation there's a lot of room for fuckery. We really can't police speech. But what i will say is that if i see anyone even joke about being scum I'm going to assume you aren't joking, were hypnotized, and move to lynch you immediately.
flatearthpandas
Member
(09-06-2017, 07:24 AM)
flatearthpandas's Avatar
Oh.

Vote: StanleyPalmtree

Why so bloodthirsty? Lynch every day seems to me to leave town with the least amount of sure info. What's the flip side?

Thread Tools