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How do we actually expect the Xbox One X to sell?
- Thread starter Phediuk
- Start date
Omnii-chan
Member
I want one, but $650 AU is too damn much.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Both checkerboard, both have native 4K games and both won't have 4K 60FPS Third Party games, for the most part.
Seems to me like they compete.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Just as a reminder - as some people frequently mention that the Pro is a failure - in order to accomplish that, MS needs to sell approx. 4 million XOX p.a. on a global scale. I can see it outperforming the Pro in some markets but overall it would be a tremendous success if it outsells the Pro, either launch aligned or not.
This is the console X360 fans wanted from MS, I think it'll dominate Christmas period, from there I expect it to drop off but still perform better then Xbox S.
PuBG being console exclusive will be responsible for pushing both consoles in general. Console gamers in US and UK will lap it up.
PuBG being console exclusive will be responsible for pushing both consoles in general. Console gamers in US and UK will lap it up.
rocketskates
Member
Yeah, ok 🤔🤔🤔🤔
The pre-orders have already been more than the Pro has sold this year.
Stop being so obtuse.
GAF be GAF
I'm gonna go balls to wall and say 30-35%.
Hoho for breakfast
Member
Not particularly well. I'd say at least it has 4k blu Ray but so does the S for half the price or less.
How much are each of these, incidentally? Are you talking about just NA (not many posts in this thread are very specific in this regard)?
Not well.
It will have an initial burst at launch and then drop like a £450 stone.
If £200, very tidy looking, 4K (upscaled) outputing Xbox One S is barely selling, the One X is going to do naff all.
PS4 Pro is still outsold by the regular PS4 at roughly 4:1 going by Sony's own figures, as a comparison.
So there is no chance it will suddenly go nuts. None.
It will win back a few hardcore graphics whore GAF types, and that's it.
It will have an initial burst at launch and then drop like a £450 stone.
If £200, very tidy looking, 4K (upscaled) outputing Xbox One S is barely selling, the One X is going to do naff all.
PS4 Pro is still outsold by the regular PS4 at roughly 4:1 going by Sony's own figures, as a comparison.
So there is no chance it will suddenly go nuts. None.
It will win back a few hardcore graphics whore GAF types, and that's it.
It will sell really well for the rest of this year but it then depends how many of the larger 3rd party games they can show off for next year to show off the advantage. This year they should have the 3rd party stuff wrapped up, plus a few of their first party bits and stuff like PUBG as well. That will roll them for a good few months until E3 rumors start floating again haha.
Bitch Pudding
Member
And one specific retailer.
And the hypothesis of XOX already outselling Pro was derived on a top seller list, which apparently isn't very suitable for such conclusions.
And it also did not consider that three other PS4 Pro SKUs are sold via amazon, ranking individually.
So basically, we don't no nothing yet, only that XOX SE outsold pretty fast, which for all we know bodes well for MS and their new product.
Can't see it making a dent in increasing Xbox marketshare with Switch's first Christmas as well as a likely PS4P absolute price cut (Sony won't do more aggressive bundling to highlight the price difference).
It will probably have a higher ratio to the XOS than the PS4P does to the PS4, but I don't expect it to match it numbers-wise.
I expect the XOX to have a price cut before E3 2018, as most it really how it sells in 2018 beyond that matters, I can't see how it won't tail off like the XOS before Q1s over.
ps3ud0 8)
It will probably have a higher ratio to the XOS than the PS4P does to the PS4, but I don't expect it to match it numbers-wise.
I expect the XOX to have a price cut before E3 2018, as most it really how it sells in 2018 beyond that matters, I can't see how it won't tail off like the XOS before Q1s over.
ps3ud0 8)
MilkyJoe
Member
Freeman76
Member
Well its actually the opinion of most people from what I have seen but stay happy up there on your cloud dude.
You know... at the end of the day 20% of PS4 new sales are a bigger number than 35% of new XBO sales...
"Exclusives don't matter, the best 3rd parties are what entice people!" - GAF 13-14
"If your console doesn't have exclusives, it will flop!" - GAF 15-17
I love how the common mantra changes based on the market situation.
Thanks for that basic maths lesson. /s
Tfault
Member
We can use the Amazon UK as a guide to numbers since the UK is the second largest market for Xbox.
The XOX currently is sitting at 52 for 2017
Destiny PS4 at 27
Destiny Xbox at 67
Since we know Destiny PS4 did 101K and on Xbox 73K we can surmise that the XOX is currently above 73K in pre- orders and probably around 80K.
If we double that number (no basis for this) for other retail sellers then we probably are looking at 160K total in the UK.
Sounds about right?
The XOX currently is sitting at 52 for 2017
Destiny PS4 at 27
Destiny Xbox at 67
Since we know Destiny PS4 did 101K and on Xbox 73K we can surmise that the XOX is currently above 73K in pre- orders and probably around 80K.
If we double that number (no basis for this) for other retail sellers then we probably are looking at 160K total in the UK.
Sounds about right?
irrotational
Member
quite possibly - but thats a capped number because default XoX units aren't available for pre-order yet.
If the Pro did 25% of all PS4 sales then I'd expect the XoX to do 30%-35% of all xbox sales fairly easily. It's a bigger upgrade, and we're a year down the line so sales of the base consoles will be slowing (making it easier for a newer model to take a bigger chunk of the total).
I don't know what Xbox are currently selling at in total per year? 3m? 4m? that would equate to 1 mil of XoX.
And it also increase the likelihood of it running like shit on Xbox consoles if the they try to blindly rush it to the market.
Was this ever actually the common mantra, or are you just being selective ? All I remember were the "PS4 has no games","Indiestation" & "Greatness awaits" memes.
this. as with every single console, it will launch strong...but i just don't see it's momentum being held. same as the PS4 Pro. people will go back to buying the base version of these machines because they're half the price and play the exact same games.
Tfault
Member
I was trying to gauge launch numbers and am assuming that the bulk of sales will happen now and will tail off dramatically thereafter.
I'm surprised to see people willing to pay $500 for a console just for exclusives. $500 is a "this will be my main console for third party games" price.
Price is the biggest thing that will prevent the Xbox One X from selling after the Holiday season. Not multiple console exclusives that would be playable on the far cheaper Xbox One S anyway.
Anyway, the system should sell pretty well at launch but then drop huge during the beginning of 2018.
FUNKNOWN iXi
Member
Yup lol.
Yeah that's true, but that doesn't dismiss what leeh said. The bit about "exclusives don't matter, best 3rd parties" etc. was on one end of the spectrum, while what you said was on the other. Which led to which? Well, that's a chicken and egg situation.
Tfault
Member
Price I think is a major factor here and it XOX will not achieve anywhere near 30%-35% ratio in US, UK or WW
captainraincoat
Banned
Will do pretty well i think for the remainder if the year and will probrably pick up quite a few ps4 owners along the way who want to play the best 3rd party versions of cod...battlefront ect and with pubg being a launch exclusive it will probably be the only comsole u can play it on for the next 12 months...and then their 1st party stuff starts to land next year it will be great
Your having a laugh if you think thats what GAF was like in common. Talking Xbox is a lot better on here now, but it was an absolute fucking shit show around 13-15.
I remember the NPD thread around when Gears & H5 was realising and Xbox had its stronger exclusive line up and PS4 had nothing and everyone said who cares about exclusives.
Triggerhappytel
Member
It'll do reasonably well at first because there are clearly a lot of die-hard fans waiting on this thing. But I think (much like I expect the Pro has) it'll drop off steeply in 2018 and MS will have to settle for a distant third place compared to the PS4 and Switch.
It looks like a nice piece of hardware and everything, but as has been said many times, a $500 half-generation console is not the solution to Xbox's current problems.
It looks like a nice piece of hardware and everything, but as has been said many times, a $500 half-generation console is not the solution to Xbox's current problems.
captainraincoat
Banned
Ms ran over everyones cat...then dumped the carcus on your doorstep with a carwash bill....thats what it seemed like
SmokedMeat
Gamer™
Xbox in general hasn't set the world on fire this gen, so I expect it to initially "sell out" to that fanbase. Afterwards I think it'll fizzle out and go on sale with big promotions like the Xbox One did.
So decent numbers for the holidays and then it falls off a cliff.
So decent numbers for the holidays and then it falls off a cliff.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
Lol...
If by gangbusters you mean ambiguous pre-order allocations selling outwithout giving any hard figures at allthen yeah.
BanjoLayleeYookaKazooie
Banned
It'll have a great opening with enthusiasts it's made for lapping it up, particularly in America it seems, but in the territories where the Xbox One S is really struggling to sell ATM, I really don't see it making a splash beyond the holiday at most.
There's a lot of competition and it's still an Xbox One and I just don't see how there's a significant number of people who've sat out this generation who will jump in with an Xbox One X and its lineup of games, PUBG will be very important (albeit it's already established a massive user base on another platform) then the other games are all sequels to games we've seen this gen already and can be played on another, more popular platform(s). I just don't see who will buy an Xbox One X with Battlefront 2 for instance, where were they for the first in 2015? Why jump in with the most expensive console? Why didn't they buy it on the PS4 which is what the adverts will be telling them to? There is a solid lineup of games on Xbox this holiday, but all bar one are the furthest thing away from what could be called 'system sellers'.
And just speaking about the Uk where I'm from I just don't see how a £450 Xbox could ever sell really well. Unless the competition (which is significant) was removed entirely and the Xbox One brand wasn't as unappealing as it seems to the mainstream, it'll remain selling to the same small audience that will pick it up at launch and beyond then? If games like Red Dead Redemption 2 or Anthem look really impressive on it it'll get a boost of sales but for the other 50 weeks of the year? I am not confident.
There's a lot of competition and it's still an Xbox One and I just don't see how there's a significant number of people who've sat out this generation who will jump in with an Xbox One X and its lineup of games, PUBG will be very important (albeit it's already established a massive user base on another platform) then the other games are all sequels to games we've seen this gen already and can be played on another, more popular platform(s). I just don't see who will buy an Xbox One X with Battlefront 2 for instance, where were they for the first in 2015? Why jump in with the most expensive console? Why didn't they buy it on the PS4 which is what the adverts will be telling them to? There is a solid lineup of games on Xbox this holiday, but all bar one are the furthest thing away from what could be called 'system sellers'.
And just speaking about the Uk where I'm from I just don't see how a £450 Xbox could ever sell really well. Unless the competition (which is significant) was removed entirely and the Xbox One brand wasn't as unappealing as it seems to the mainstream, it'll remain selling to the same small audience that will pick it up at launch and beyond then? If games like Red Dead Redemption 2 or Anthem look really impressive on it it'll get a boost of sales but for the other 50 weeks of the year? I am not confident.
TheThreadsThatBindUs
Member
Projecting the comments of a few across an entire community of people with different preferences and opinions is often looked down on around these parts.
I'd encourage you to not try to point out the hypocrisy of "NeoGaf" by treating the entire community as a hivemind in this way; especially if you want other posters to take you seriously, leeh.
Sangetsu-II
Member
I thought in 13-14 gaf was complaining more about MS doing all those 180's after the shit show that was their reveal in 13 more than 720p/1080p argument (That was more IGN, etc than Gaf), in 14 complaining how broken Halo MCC was but in 15 I will agree there was nothing to complain about MS yet Gaf always found something.
BanjoLayleeYookaKazooie
Banned
Yeah I'm sure there were a few idiots harping on like that but I'm not having my skepticism for this system brushed aside because of comments some people that weren't me said on a site I didn't have an account on 3 years ago. Exclusives, or rather big system sellers, are and have always been important, and the fact that the Xbox One X has only 1 for the foreseeable future (again with the caveat that it's already had its first massive impact elsewhere) is something to be pointed out and I'm not going to feel sorry about doing it.
Melchiah
Member
Just like it was with PS3 around 2005-2009 here. The common stance sways from one side to another according to the circumstances.
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