• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Michael Pachter: Console market may collapse in the future.

O

Obliterator

Member
Marcel said:
Existing American internet infrastructure already makes the all streaming future quite hard. If internet laws go into the trashcan as many are expecting then good effing luck with that.
Click to expand...

Indeed and for game streaming the tech required is far more complex with bigger data usage than say Netflix.

Like I don't think a future where gaming is a service and not a hardware focused environment very well could happen. But that tech won't be mass market available at a cheap high quality standards in 10 years.
 
JordanN

JordanN

Banned
shnurgleton said:
For Microsoft, yeah.

For Sony, maybe.

For Nintendo? Never.
Click to expand...

There's a tendency to paint Nintendo as being the least to abandon something but that's not true.

They used CD's after the N64 failed. They went online with the Wii/DS after Iwata previously called the internet a fad. And they're now making mobile games when it was long argued it would "devalue" them.

As long as they're a public company with shareholders, they will do anything to boost their profits. Especially when you consider their market share in the console market constantly declines.
 
S

Suzushiiro

Banned
We're already starting to hit the point where more powerful console hardware isn't really going to help the majority of games out there because the main limiter is budget. I'd guess that by the next console generation (or the next mid-generation refresh, if that's what it winds up being) only the biggest AAAs will be able to afford to make assets that max out what the hardware can do, and the rest of the industry will be making games that could easily run on older hardware but run at 2160p60 on the new stuff. From there it's just a matter of time until integrated PC GPUs and then phones have that level of power.

That said, I doubt walled-garden consoles go away in that scenario- they just get smaller and cheaper baseline models while people who want the best still have the option to spend more on Pro models.
 
semiconscious

semiconscious

Member
'console market may collapse in the future'. well, yeah. of course, earth might be invaded by aliens in the future, as well. y'never know :) ...
 
Z

ZeoVGM

Banned
Kart94 said:
cb6.png


This but with consoles...

Why do we take what he says seriously.
Click to expand...

This is VGCatz-level bad.
 
S

Sweetooth

Neo Member
There's a lot wrong with Pachter's wording here, specifically with the use of "collapse". What he should be saying is that the console market will transform in the future, which is inevitable as technology continues to evolve. It's not like all of a sudden the market is going to crash and there won't be games like Halo 5 or Horizon Zero Dawn being developed any longer. This is why Sony and Microsoft are moving away from PlayStation and Xbox being identified simply as a device/console and towards being identified as a brand/platform. However and whenever technology changes, ultimately it's about the content (games) and PlayStation and Xbox will be there to bring you their respective experiences. It's no different than Netflix and Amazon today - there will be an app, you will have an account and pay a fee for the service, and there will be a blend of original (first party) and shared (third party) content. And first party controllers, of course!

The future is bright for gaming, regardless of your preferred flavor =)
 
R

Real_Madrid

Member
Jakoo said:
The sales of the PS4 and the Switch seem to be saying otherwise, but OK.

I personally never see myself gaming off a PC. It's not to shit on PC gaming whatsoever, it's just not where I want to game.
Click to expand...

It's not like PC gaming is going to grow a lot, it's more like you can play the games you want from your devices you already have and/or stream it.
The switch is proving what a relatively cheap tablet can do for AAA-gaming and streaming is certainly not there yet, but it will be.

And Pachter is right ofcourse, consoles are going to be extinct in a few generations when we can stream games like Fifa from our mobile device to the TV. And it will be very good for gaming, even hardcore games. The biggest hurdle we have nowadays is the expensive nature of dedicated gaming hardware. Imagine what Fifa could sell if everyone could play it the way they want (at home or away, on TV or on a tablet,...).
Or a game like Mario Kart, Nintendo would make so much money it would be ridiculous.
 
M

Marcel

Member
For an analyst of the industry he seems to be quite ignorant of what's happening on the internet side of all this, the thing that's necessary to make his prediction true. Quite embarrassing even for Pachter.
 
D

Dylan Sexbang

Banned
Not going to lie, I'll be going to mainly PC use later this year. My original intention was to get Scorpio, but I just don't care for it anymore- being after the cancellation of Scalebound. Will keep my Xbone for friends, and a PS4 for exclusives, but those two will be second to my future build
 
Z

Zakalwe

Banned
I mean, as technology improves there is /obviously going to be shifts away from the standards we have now.

Anyone who thinks there won't be dramatic changes to how we consume gaming media over the next few decades is mad.
 
W

Weebos

Banned
Gamezone said:
Taken from his latest episode.

Console software is gonna move off consoles. In the next two to three years, you're gonna have the opportunity to download to your PC and play on your TV. In the next 10 years you're gonna download to your phone and play on your TV." he said.

What do you think?
Click to expand...

I could see it happening if this worked well, but I don't see it working well in the near future. Maybe in 10 years.
 
C

Chezzymann

Member
Not 10 years, but eventually it will. Can't see people having a bunch of separate devices 100 years from now, eventually phones, computers, TV's and gaming consoles will all merge into one thing somehow.
 
P

pswii60

Member
They said this in 1996! There's a video somewhere on here that someone posted of the N64 launch, and a journalist saying that it would probably be the last console generation because of the rise of PC gaming.

Then we had the STB thing, then the cloud gaming thing, the smart TV thing. But consoles are still selling.
 
V

ViciousDS

Banned
Dylan Sexbang said:
Not going to lie, I'll be going to mainly PC use later this year. My original intention was to get Scorpio, but I just don't care for it anymore- being after the cancellation of Scalebound. Will keep my Xbone for friends, and a PS4 for exclusives, but those two will be second to my future build
Click to expand...

with the crossplay features slowly creeping in between xbox and PC, and the fact that you can chat/party up with friends on windows 10......I decided to build a PC instead of getting a Scorpio. Just because I can play some really old games I want to like KOTOR.....and tons more of course, plus there is not a whole lot left needing an xbox to enjoy their developed games anymore since they are all on PC.
 
F

franklyshankly

Member
Real_Madrid said:
And Pachter is right ofcourse, consoles are going to be extinct in a few generations when we can stream games like Fifa from our mobile device to the TV. And it will be very good for gaming, even hardcore games.
Click to expand...

See I just don't get this part. No matter how good mobile hardware is at a certain time, non-mobile hardware will be an order of magnitude faster or more (unless and until a brick wall in hardware advancement occurs, which is possible as we approach the limits of silicon but clearly not happening in 10 years).

Is the entire industry going to accept the limits of mobile hardware at some point, and just ignore that games could be pushed much farther on dedicated hardware?
 
D

Diablohead

Member
Gamezone said:
Taken from his latest episode.

Console software is gonna move off consoles. In the next two to three years, you're gonna have the opportunity to download to your PC and play on your TV. In the next 10 years you're gonna download to your phone and play on your TV.," he said.

What do you think?
Click to expand...

hang on, we do all this already.
 
V

Version 3.0

Member
I've been downloading to my PC and playing on TV for years. My TV has been the only display for my PC for...I think a full decade at this point. Quick check: over 100 games on my PC that I've only played on a TV.

And I've also played from my phone on TV, though not much. I first did that from an iPhone 3GS.

Despite both of those things being true, I still spend most of my game time on consoles.

franklyshankly said:
See I just don't get this part. No matter how good mobile hardware is at a certain time, non-mobile hardware will be an order of magnitude faster or more (unless and until a brick wall in hardware advancement occurs, which is possible as we approach the limits of silicon but clearly not happening in 10 years).

Is the entire industry going to accept the limits of mobile hardware at some point, and just ignore that games could be pushed much farther on dedicated hardware?
Click to expand...

Right. But you know what may be an even more potent deterrent? Who the fuck wants to tie up their phone in that way? You can stream Netflix, HBO Go, and other streaming video sources from your phone to your TV now, have been able to for years. But few people do that exclusively. You use a dedicated device, not just for quality but for convenience.

The phone scenario is just not going to happen. PC already co-exists fine. These are dumb predictions.

Not that consoles might not go away. But the thing that kills them is not one of these already-available devices.
 
M

Marcel

Member
pswii60 said:
They said this in 1996! There's a video somewhere on here that someone posted of the N64 launch, and a journalist saying that it would probably be the last console generation because of the rise of PC gaming.
Click to expand...

Doomsaying on consoles has always been a nice attention-getter for both analysts and game journalists alike.
 
I

Izayoi

Banned
Trago said:
This as well. At this point, none of the big three have cracked the code yet. If Xbox Game Pass is a huge hit, then the ball will definitely get rolling.
Click to expand...
EA is on the right path, but for it to really work, it will need to be more encompassing.

Xbox Game Pass is a sign of things to come. I think that someday, it will be that the large console makers compete for your dollars on a subscription basis - instead of Netflix, Hulu, etc. you will see Playstation Pass, Xbox Pass, etc. - and individual publishing houses will have their own carve-out services, similar to Starz and HBO Now (you can see that with EA already).

It will be hardware independent - all services work on all devices, just like you can run Netflix or Spotify on everything under the sun.

It will be a matter of getting the timing and the price right, but I don't doubt that it will happen. I know you lot here will be extremely resistant, but you will be dragged into the future, kicking and screaming, whether you like it or not.
 
LordRaptor

LordRaptor

Member
Suzushiiro said:
We're already starting to hit the point where more powerful console hardware isn't really going to help the majority of games out there because the main limiter is budget.
Click to expand...

Call me sceptical if you will, but I think we are already at that point and don't see another game with the sheer scope of a GTAV releasing this generation.
 
F

Fast Forward

Member
I like Pachter, but no. Just no. We already download games on consoles, and to extent, stream in the case of PS Now, and shocker of shocks, consoles business is alive and well. Personally, I'm digital only across all the consoles, but for the mass market at large, I don't ever see physical completely going away. Physical has not even gone away in the music industry, and needless to say, downloading/streaming a MP3 of Back in Black is helluva lot easier than downloading GTA V.

But even so, even if the digital only future happens some how, I still see there being a demand in the marketplace for some sort of console, same as people, like me, still buy/use a Roku, even though you can connect a PC to a TV.
 
K

Koozek

Member
RPGCrazied said:
I bail out when it turns into something like that. I'm not a digital only guy. Physical or bust.
Click to expand...
Yeah, sure, you will never play any game ever again
mjlol.png
See you in 15 years in the OT for Persona 7, which you will gladly play on your 16K TV through the PS app.
 
WhiteWaterM00se

WhiteWaterM00se

Member
It is dying no question. I'm amazed it hasn't died yet. Nintendo Switch is one of the hybrids of the future no question. The other is when the likes of Apple and Google finally get interested in games as a supplemental to their tv boxes.

Someday Apple and Google will lookup and say the tech is there, we are talking the revenue from Sony, Nintendo, and Xbox consoles. A powerful steaming and digital download box, that allows steaming from PC, tablets and phones also.

The new Apple TV or Google TV with come with a controller like NVIDIA shield. Play powerful games and have all the other multimedia features at a lower pricepoint and Apple and Google have the money to force all developers onto their platforms.
 
S

Spyder_Monkey

Banned
Consoles still fills a need in that it has software you can get on your smartphones and is still more accessible to buy and hook up than a PC. So no, it's not going away anytime soon.
 
L

Linkstrikesback

Member
Hux1ey said:
PC library is 934058903485x bigger than PS4 so I think you might be a bit wrong.
Click to expand...

Which means bugger all if they'd only want to play the games they already are.

The PC market can be anywhere from one to a billion times bigger in amount of choice for all it matters to me, I already don't have anywhere near enough time to play everything I'd want to with just a PS4, and likely a switch at some point down the road.
 
I

Izayoi

Banned
Leondexter said:
I've been downloading to my PC and playing on TV for years. My TV has been the only display for my PC for...I think a full decade at this point.

And I've also played from my phone on TV, though not much. I first did that from an iPhone 3GS.

Despite both of those things being true, I still spend most of my game time on consoles.
Click to expand...
The technology to do this kind of thing seamlessly is not there yet, but it will be.

The Switch is a wonderful early illustration of the direction that the market is headed in.
 
M

Marcel

Member
Koozek said:
Yeah, sure, you will never play any game ever again
mjlol.png
See you in 15 years in the OT for Persona 7, which you will gladly play on your 16K TV through the PS app.
Click to expand...

Hope you have the cash to pay for the game streaming fast lane you will have to purchase separately through Comcast.
 
F

foltzie1

Member
Gamezone said:
Taken from his latest episode.

Console software is gonna move off consoles. In the next two to three years, you're gonna have the opportunity to download to your PC and play on your TV. In the next 10 years you're gonna download to your phone and play on your TV.," he said.

What do you think?
Click to expand...

The above thoughts require significantly less balkanization of the TV and PC hardware and software stack in order to work at a level for mainstream adoption.*

It isn't impossible, but it would require someone like Apple, Steam, or Microsoft to make a move to leverage their existing positions to bring about the above.

Even then, I don't see all of the other companies getting out of the business.

*Apple TV and Steam via its big screen mode already offers the ability and ecosystem.
 
GuyKazama

GuyKazama

Member
Leondexter said:
I've been downloading to my PC and playing on TV for years. My TV has been the only display for my PC for...I think a full decade at this point.

And I've also played from my phone on TV, though not much. I first did that from an iPhone 3GS.

Despite both of those things being true, I still spend most of my game time on consoles.
Click to expand...

Both current solutions are clunky with drawbacks. In 10 years, it might just work for anybody using any modern phone with few noticable drawbacks.
 
B

Brunire

Member
Gamezone said:
Taken from his latest episode.

Console software is gonna move off consoles. In the next two to three years, you're gonna have the opportunity to download to your PC and play on your TV. In the next 10 years you're gonna download to your phone and play on your TV.," he said.

What do you think?
Click to expand...

whatyearisit.gif
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

  • Locked
Is PlayStation the apple of consoles?
21
1K
Raonak replied
Retro console market EXPOSES Backwards Compatibility. It's not a Privilege, it's a Luxury
Opinion Clickbait
17
1K
Barakov replied
French video game market (2023) Console Gaming +24.1%, PC gaming -8.5% and Mobile Gaming +4.8%
27
2K
Flabagast replied
Will Old Videogame Consoles Ever Become Valuable in the Future?
30
2K
TheDreadLord replied
Are Japan’s console and mobile game markets shrinking in favor of PC games? Developers discuss
Opinion Game Dev
39
2K
Randall365 replied
Top Bottom