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Pachter on PS5: Bets on 2020 launch now, PS4 Pro to become "default PS4"

Toni

Toni

Member
HStallion said:
What kind of specs could we realistically expect for, lets say $400 PS5 in 2020?
Click to expand...

An 8 teraflops GPU with a 3.2 or 3.8 ghz CPU, 18 GB of GDDR5 ram on a 1 TB as bundle as the standard.

These specs support 4k just as the standard resolution just fine.
 
D

DMVfan123

Banned
I love my PS4, but I still feel like I haven't got my $399 out of it, once GOW, Spider-Man, and TLOU2 come out that may be a different story but I think 2020 is the perfect time for a PS5 to come out
 
A

AmyS

Member
Commanche Raisin Toast said:
Where are those AMD roadmaps again? I feel like there was a really good explanation as to when PS5 *should* come and it had a lot to do with when certain tech milestones can be reached.
Click to expand...

WXWaMfK.jpg


9OWio1H.png


If PS5 comes in late 2019 it'll probably use semi-custom APU with Zen 2 CPU and Navi GPU.

If late 2020 then probably semi-custom APU with Zen 3 CPU and 'Next Gen' GPU.

Toni said:
An 8 teraflops GPU with a 3.2 or 3.8 ghz CPU, 18 GB of GDDR5 ram on a 1 TB as bundle as the standard.

These specs support 4k just as the standard resolution just fine.
Click to expand...

8 TFlops would only be good enough to handle PS4-level graphics at native 4K (that's what Mark Cerny was talking about last year when he said "at least 8 teraflops) with not much left over for an actual noticeable leap in graphics fidelity / detail / lighting / next-gen engines, etc.

I don't think PS5 GPU will be less than 12 TFlops, twice the raw performance of XB1X / Scorpio Engine GPU. I know the biggest improvement will be the CPU, but even so, the GPU has to be respectable and fairly impressive.
An 8 teraflop GPU in 2020 or even 2019 would not be at all impressive, IMHO.
 
Ascenion

Ascenion

Member
Toni said:
An 8 teraflops GPU with a 3.2 or 3.8 ghz CPU, 18 GB of GDDR5 ram on a 1 TB as bundle as the standard.

These specs support 4k just as the standard resolution just fine.
Click to expand...

Didn't Cerny say 8TF was a minimum needed for 4K? I can't see them barely scraping by like that. I'd say 9-10TF. 8 seems too low when you're gonna be on record putting 8 at the low end.
 
K

KageMaru

Member
I can see 2020 being the most realistic year for the launch of the PS5. 2019 is just too early considering the leap in performance they are likely targeting.
 
N

napata

Member
AmyS said:
8 TFlops would only be good enough to handle PS4-level graphics at native 4K, with not much left over for an actual noticeable leap in graphics fidelity / detail / lighting / next-gen engines, etc.

I don't think PS5 GPU will be less than 12 TFlops, twice the raw performance of XB1X / Scorpio Engine GPU.

I know the biggest improvement will be the CPU, but even so, the GPU has to be respectable and fairly impressive. An 8 teraflop GPU in 2020 or even 2019 would not be, IMHO.
Click to expand...

Expect delays for the products on those roadmaps though. They already make it seem like Zen & Vega launched earlier than they did.
 
L

LowSignal

Member
Give me the best box you can for $399 without any gimmicks or stuff that will be barely supported and I'll be happy. IMO 2020 is fine and I bought a PS4 day 1 followed by the Pro day 1.
 
T

Trago

Member
LowSignal said:
Give me the best box you can for $399 without any gimmicks or stuff that will be barely supported and I'll be happy. IMO 2020 is fine and I bought a PS4 day 1 followed by the Pro day 1.
Click to expand...

I know this is the expected price, but could $500 be possible too? Considering how much of a leap Sony wants.
 
D

DieH@rd

Banned
PS4 Pro to become "default PS4" < not going to happen. The greatest future expansion of PS4 userbase will happen when base PS4 gets additional price drops. Pro will retain higher price for a while now.


As for the timing of PS5, that's likely. 2019 or 2020, with more signs [great PS4 sales, healthy 1st/2nd party lineup for 2019 [TLOU2 and DS]] pointing to 2020.
 
D

Deleted member 471617

Unconfirmed Member
September or November 2020 will be when PlayStation 5 launches. I see $500 with no backwards compatibility whatsoever (except for PSnow) and there being no mid-gen crap which quite honestly is exactly the way I want it to be.
 
S

Some Nobody

Junior Member
Ascenion said:
I'm still betting on 2021-22 myself. 2019 and 2020 seem to freaking early for any meaningful progress.
Click to expand...

lol. I'm not even a big fan of rapid upgrades, but fuuuuuck this. If we gotta wait til 2022 then devs should just start making Pro/One X only games. Seven years should be long enough for an appreciable upgrade.

Trago said:
I know this is the expected price, but could $500 be possible too? Considering how much of a leap Sony wants.
Click to expand...

Hope not. At a certain point you're pricing it out of the range of kids and some more price-conscious people who would otherwise pick it up. And since PS5 is very possibly the last console gen, I'd rather we not botch it like that.
 
M

MaDKaT

Member
2020 certainly makes sense but 2019 is marketing gold with "25 years of Playstation". Granted they could just go off the US launch date of 1995 and market accordingly,
 
J

jaypah

Member
daniel77733 said:
September or November 2020 will be when PlayStation 5 launches. I see $500 with no backwards compatibility whatsoever (except for PSnow) and there being no mid-gen crap which quite honestly is exactly the way I want it to be.
Click to expand...

I think $400 again and BC. I literally can't imagine them having people throw away their digital collection again. Gamers love Sony but we've seen gamers turn before. I also don't see them going with an architecture so different that BC wouldn't work. They'd have to purposely not want it.
 
Bitch Pudding

Bitch Pudding

Member
I do not expect $499, but I actually hope they'll go for it and spend every penny on hardware, like with PS4.

They could continue PS4 - probably only the standard one - for a smooth transition with regards to subs and software sales.
 
Chittagong

Chittagong

Gold Member
Marmelade said:
A 8TF GPU in 2020 would be really disappointing imo
Click to expand...

Absolutely no way it will be that low. Pro is 4TF, X is 6TF, so we need to be looking at 12-18TF the very least to make a 3x generational jump, optimally 4x so 16-24TF. It’s still 3-5 years out, so tech has time to get there. That’s why 2021-2022 is more likely now imo.
 
Bitch Pudding

Bitch Pudding

Member
Chittagong said:
Absolutely no way it will be that low. Pro is 4TF, X is 6TF, so we need to be looking at 12-18TF the very least to make a 3x generational jump. It’s still 3 years out, so tech has time to get there.
Click to expand...

If the PS4 is the baseline - as it should - 18 TF is 10 ex faster than the old one. That said, 18TF sounds too optimistic, even for a 2020' $499 console.
 
N

napata

Member
AmyS said:
Navi has already been pushed back from 2018 to 2019.

Here's an older GPU roadmap.
Click to expand...

The first GPU roadmap you posted also puts Navi in 2018. Based on the position of 2017 Navi would fall in 2018 but like I said those roadmaps weren't even accurate when they were shown first.
 
B

bombshell

Member
Chittagong said:
Absolutely no way it will be that low. Pro is 4TF, X is 6TF, so we need to be looking at 12-18TF the very least to make a 3x generational jump, optimally 4x so 16-24TF. It’s still 3-5 years out, so tech has time to get there. That’s why 2021-2022 is more likely now imo.
Click to expand...

The PS5 needs to be a generational leap from PS4, not from Pro or X.

Expecting it to be 24TF is just silly.
 
D

Dabanton

Member
Some Nobody said:
Hope not. At a certain point you're pricing it out of the range of kids and some more price-conscious people who would otherwise pick it up. And since PS5 is very possibly the last console gen, I'd rather we not botch it like that.
Click to expand...

Tbh should Sony hold back possible advances just because some people won't be able to afford it at launch? These are not things we need, these are hi tech entertainment items.

Early adopters will pay early adopter prices everyone else will probably wait a year and stay on their PS4's.

I want the best they can do for the highest sane price possible. If these machines are look ing to get 6-7 years of use out of them.
 
A

AmyS

Member
DieH@rd said:
PS4 Pro to become "default PS4" < not going to happen. The greatest future expansion of PS4 userbase will happen when base PS4 gets additional price drops. Pro will retain higher price for a while now.


As for the timing of PS5, that's likely. 2019 or 2020, with more signs [great PS4 sales, healthy 1st/2nd party lineup for 2019 [TLOU2 and DS]] pointing to 2020.
Click to expand...

Totally agree with this post.
 
P

Phediuk

Member
The regular PS4 will be phased out at some point in favor of the Pro.

2020 is possible for PS5, though 2021 is too.

surprisingly restrained predictions from Pachter.
 
SpinningBirdKick

SpinningBirdKick

Banned
I can't see anything launching before 2020.

Even then it's likely to be a soft transition rather than a cliff edge for PS4 support.

When you have the leading platform for the previous generation you don't gain anything from launching early. You just leave money on the table.
 
F

Feffe

Member
Pro default PS4 = PS5 games will be at the beginning compatible with 4Pro

Now we have:
Standard model: PS4
High end model with some enhancements: PS4Pro

It will become:
Standard model: PS4Pro
High end model with some enhancements: PS5
New games won't work on standard PS4

And after three years
Standard model: PS5
High end mode with some enhancements: PS5Pro
New games won't work on PS4Pro

And so on. No reason you reset the ecosystem every 6 years. Iterative models are the future
 
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