RumbleHumble
Banned
Lee came out against it again due to personal slights over how it was crafted and supposedly never found his way back to a yes.
Still don't trust him.
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PoliGAF 2017 |OT5| The Man In the High Chair
- Thread starter aspiegamer
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Lee came out against it again due to personal slights over how it was crafted and supposedly never found his way back to a yes.
Still don't trust him.
Paul is a yes since clean repeal is on the table. Probably Lee for the same reason
Murkowski hasn't said anything about the latest MTP plan to my knowledge -- word from the whip count is she is hard no though.
Moran said on Thursday he would still vote against the MTP but that was when the MTP was for either repeal or the BCRA, I don't think he has commented on the blank check MTP
Capito spent the day with Trump so I wouldn't count on her
Only hard no I count is Collins and probably Murkowski. Collins has actually come out and said she doesn't support an ambiguous MTP. Who else has? It seems to me the scheme of "don't say what the amendment will be because this lets everyone pretend they are voting for something they support" is working out well
for the MTP I mean -- the actual bills have less support. Leadership is obviously hoping they will feel pressured as options are reduced
Random Human
They were trying to grab your prize. They work for the mercenary. The masked man.
Holy shit there are still people on this webzone saying to stop being mean about McCain.
Futurevoid
Member
Capito was on Twitter earlier pimping a repeal and replace image for her followers. I don't trust her, Heller, Portman or Johnson as far as I can throw them on voting no on the MTP.
Paul isn't a hard no. He's said he'd move forward with debate as long as he got to vote on full repeal.
Mike Lee has been silent since killing the last effort and Jerry Moran is a yes for moving ahead on the MTP.
Your only hard no is Collins and Murkowski right now in so far as the motion to proceed. With McCain gone, the MTP is dead. With him there? Chances increase.
We need to make the distinction between the MTP vote and the actual bill in this discussion. Once it gets to the floor for debate, leadership is going to throw every last trick and amendment at this to pass SOMETHING. Who knows what these people buy into at that point? It shouldn't ever be allowed to get there. That's my concern and the margin is indeed slim on the MTP vote with Pence as the tiebreaker.
Nah dude, he lost his soul in 2000 after a Karl Rove smear (lie) campaign and then spent the next 8 years being Bush's bitch.
If you have the MTP, then you're going to have the votes for what follows.
What follows will definitely be an absolute whirlwind.
habithipster
Member
Murder-suicide.
Yeah, maybe my memory is rusty, but he only spoke up when it didn't matter, a pattern that continues to this day. He was a party loyalist when it counted.
balladofwindfishes
Member
This isn't true at all. They are literally voting on nothing, just to proceed. There's no bill.
If the margin wasn't 2 votes, maybe, but with such a slim margin, it's not at all guaranteed if it moves on tomorrow.
So essentially we're voting on MTP tomorrow and possibly an actual bill Wednesday?
Usually that's the case. But they don't even know exactly what will follow. And then there is Rand Paul who might vote yes on MTP just so he can vote yes for an amendment for full repeal.
RumbleHumble
Banned
Especially with all the concessions McConnell needed to make just to get Paul and Johnson to be tentatively on board for the MTP. The fringe and the moderates will still kill the bill at a final vote. MTP just means we continue to drag this on.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Something like that. Although I think the bill is likely weeks away because it's the same old bills that died multiple times before.
Is Johnson even on board to move forward? He took the entire process personally. He sounded really bitter the last few weeks.
Futurevoid
Member
It'll be a whirlwind but I disagree with your first statement. The reason they so desperately want to get the MTP done is to pressure their members to vote. They most certainly do not have the votes to pass any version of the bill that's been floated. They're going to try and Frankenstein together some "thing" that can pass. Even if it's ineffectual (best outcome) in hopes that the house "improves" it before passing it to Trump. It's the Senates version of punting to the House. They are basically returning the favor if they actually manage to pass something.
RumbleHumble
Banned
Johnson and Lee have both been radio silent, so frankly, I have no idea...
I don't think the legislative filibuster has a long life ahead of it, but doing something you would really rather avoid just for the chance to vote on a bill you would really rather not vote on makes no sense. I could see them doing it for tax cuts -- something all republicans can get behind
AnotherNils
Member
I'm scared to death they're gonna do it. I have a hard time believing they're gonna drag McCain across the country without the numbers.
Any changes would force it right back to the Senate though. So they'd be right back where they started!
Futurevoid
Member
Withou McCain, the motion to proceed is 100% dead. They need him to even come close to having the numbers.
If the House changes even a single word, the Senate will have to vote on it again.
balladofwindfishes
Member
They needed McCain back to even humor the idea of a vote, because there are 2 solid nos that the GOP has given up on convincing
ShadowSwordmaster
Banned
This McCain situation should be a commercial on its own. The Dems need to say what the lengths that the GOP will do if they don't have their way.
DrForester
Kills Photobucket
Just think, this will be the last PoliGAF thread with America having a somewhat-decent healthcare program.
And people wonder why the left is becoming punitive towards health insurance companies.
aspiegamer
Member
It is beyond me that someone could hate The Poors so much they'd risk their life over this. Not even content to officially resign and ask his governor to fly out his temporary replacement who would cast the same vote. He feels compelled to do this personally.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
You all get scared so easily it's hard to take you seriously. They have a vote scheduled and have no fucking idea themselves what's even going to happen.
Get a grip.
Get a grip.
Yeah this is a desperate hail mary by the turtle.
BoogieWoogie
Banned
If there was anything to be scared about....
The GOP is literally carting an 80 year old man who just got out of brain surgery to vote to rip millions of people from their healthcare. That's not scary?
Brawly Likes to Brawl
Member
The very fact that they're even trying this stunt is what's appalling. I think it still fail and it should because fuck an action like this being rewarded.
I can absolutely see a scenario that plays out very similarly to what happened with the House.
They quickly force an MTP after the last attempt ended in failure, and are so desperate that they drag McCain out, and Frankenstein together an unscored final bill that the Republicans will have no idea what it will actually do.
They quickly force an MTP after the last attempt ended in failure, and are so desperate that they drag McCain out, and Frankenstein together an unscored final bill that the Republicans will have no idea what it will actually do.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
I hope it fails, but I do think it'll be harder for senators to vote against MTP with McCain there, unless he votes no.
God that would be great if he did though. Then everyone would applaud him (Dems could start the snowball) and we'd probably see a dozen No votes from the GOP. Too bad he sucks though.
God that would be great if he did though. Then everyone would applaud him (Dems could start the snowball) and we'd probably see a dozen No votes from the GOP. Too bad he sucks though.
whyamihere
Banned
There's no way to know if they have 50 votes because no one knows what's in the bill.
Futurevoid
Member
If the senate doesn't get abortion restriction language in there, it's dead in the house anyways.
Meadows has already said it's DOA without it.Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I'm the one approaching this from a sane and reasonable place.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Slow down there a bit. There's a few hurdles in the road for McConnell before this can snowball.
The senate passing an unscored bill works a lot differently than the House
RustyNails
Member
Didn't someone tweet that there were a dozen or so waffling senators?
RumbleHumble
Banned
There's no reason to be scared in that the likelihood of this bill passing hasn't changed. Not really. The GOP Senate is just going to make a big deal out of shoving a man with brain cancer who was already planning on voting for it to go out for an MTP. It's a bullshit tactic and an awful thing for both McCain and the GOP to do, but it doesn't change that any bill they will try to pass without the Democrats just won't. fucking. work.
Futurevoid
Member
There's roughly half a dozen "unknowns" on the motion to proceed vote.
Box of Kittens
Banned
It's not a great slogan but I don't think it'll have much impact one way or the other. People will be voting mostly on Trump's first two years in office.
McConnell's entire political career is riding on this vote. I expect the same bloodthirsty slash-n-burn tactics to continue to play out. He doesn't care about Senate Norms in the slightest.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Ignoring senate norms doesn't mean he can just change senate rules whenever he feels like it with no input from other senators
Aaron Strife
Banned
Eh, Trump's the president though. We already know he's actually terrible at making deals.
People thought he'd be this extraordinary dealmaker but then he punted healthcare to the Senate and their bill is this dystopian right-wing fantasy. If it even passes, that might be the worst thing for him.
We're better than "best."
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