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enishi
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:33 PM)

Originally Posted by ArkhamFantasy

Is this what probably made them have the price drop discussion?

Besides the price issue, it was also under the shadow of 2011 earthquake/tsunami and Fukushima incident
Hero of Legend
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:34 PM)
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New week, new numbers. Added the MC Switch ones to my post here:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...&postcount=101
Ridley327
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:34 PM)
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Originally Posted by Nibel



I still don't understand how they managed to misread the Switch launch hype with MHXX. It is one of the biggest no-brainers out there for an early title, and they somehow managed to screw that up.
Zedark
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:36 PM)
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Zelda still at a 57.6% attach rate in Japan on Switch, will be interesting to see how it develops during the year.
Anteo
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:36 PM)
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Originally Posted by Zedark

Holidays and Super Mario 3D Land (mostly holidays).

Oh i remmeber. It was 3d land + mk7 + mh3u right?
Principate
Saint Titanfall
(04-19-2017, 03:37 PM)
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Originally Posted by Ridley327

I still don't understand how they managed to misread the Switch launch hype with MHXX. It is one of the biggest no-brainers out there for an early title, and they somehow managed to screw that up.

It's funny as it's the successor to the sole system their releasing mainline MH. They better hope they have a holiday port to make up lost sales.
JonnyDBrit
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:38 PM)
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Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

The proof is there. If it wasn't good it wouldn't be selling out. Are you telling me the Wii U was more supply constrained? I seriously can't believe there's still doubt.

Actually their point is the opposite. That if the Switch is more supply constrained than the Wii U anyway, then it might be that the sort of front loaded sales seen with that system have simply been squeezed into later weeks with the Switch, as people have to wait for there to even be consoles they can buy.
Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:38 PM)
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Originally Posted by Hero of Legend

New week, new numbers. Added the MC ones to my post here:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...&postcount=101

Zelda already doubled its FW numbers
Rodin
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:38 PM)

Originally Posted by BitStyle

Switch continuing its strong consistent sales.
BoTW on its way to 500k

It's already there, even with 5% digital
Instro
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:39 PM)
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Originally Posted by jonno394

I'm still waiting until the Switch has sold the same amount of consoles as the Wii U did. Seeing whether this is just the hardcore who bought the Wii W in the first few weeks buying their Switch in the first few weeks, but the stock supply issues has dragged the numbers out giving the Switch impressive looking legs when compared to Wii U.

Pretty much. I'd like to see it pass the 3DS and WiiU so we can get a better picture. Hard to tell what the true legs are/will be until we hit that point.
jonno394
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:39 PM)
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Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

The proof is there. If it wasn't good it wouldn't be selling out. Are you telling me the Wii U was more supply constrained? I seriously can't believe there's still doubt.

Nah, that's not what I was saying, I'm just reigning in my own expectations :p

Originally Posted by Ridley327

I still don't understand how they managed to misread the Switch launch hype with MHXX. It is one of the biggest no-brainers out there for an early title, and they somehow managed to screw that up.

Are you referring to a cross platform release on 3DS and Switch?
zeromcd73
(04-19-2017, 03:41 PM)
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Originally Posted by Jawbreaker

When is Crash Bandicoot releasing in Japan? Is it not a worldwide June release?

Decided to look around and it seems that Crash Bandicoot on PS4 has had no official announcement at all in regards to Japan, let alone a release date. Not even a single video posted on the official playstation youtube channel about Crash either.
Penguin
(04-19-2017, 03:41 PM)
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I know mostly about the Switch/Zelda, but seems like 1-2 Switch seems to be tugging along decently as well.
Colonel Mustard
Banned
(04-19-2017, 03:41 PM)
I'm pleasantly surprised at how consistent Super Bomberman R has been.

I think it might truck it's way to 100K.
Tonyx
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:42 PM)
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Switch is really owning Japan. Can't imagine what will happen with more games.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
(04-19-2017, 03:43 PM)
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Originally Posted by jonno394

Nah, that's not what I was saying, I'm just reigning in my own expectations :p



Are you referring to a cross platform release on 3DS and Switch?

I think the main problem in drawing any direct comparson of system popularity at it's base level is that it's receiving multiple major system selling software in it's first few months something neither the 3DS or wii u had. It'll be long while until the effects off all of those wear off. The wii u got that level of software over the period of years and 3DS only really got it around Christmas where it shot up.
random25
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:44 PM)
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Originally Posted by Penguin

I know mostly about the Switch/Zelda, but seems like 1-2 Switch seems to be tugging along decently as well.

This is what I'm saying about 1-2 Switch. There's a decent audience for party games in Japan, so it's no surprise that up to now it still remains the 2nd best selling Switch game, by total sales and by weekly sales ranking.
Gotdatmoney
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:44 PM)

Originally Posted by Principate

It's funny as it's the successor to the sole system their releasing mainline MH. They better hope they have a holiday port to make up lost sales.

They are trying to get people to double dip. XX will have a Switch port for the Holidays. Capcom is just shit with milking the fanbase though.

Originally Posted by Instro

Pretty much. I'd like to see it pass the 3DS and WiiU so we can get a better picture. Hard to tell what the true legs are/will be until we hit that point.

It's pretty obvious that the system is much more popular than the WiiU. Once MK drops it will basically be impossible to distinguish launch hype from software hype
L~A
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:45 PM)
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The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - Switch + Wii U = 475 837. 500k before the end of the month (most likely during MK8D week, unless there's a surprise increase for Week 16).

Looking at Wii U version sales (100k hit this week), I'd say that Zelda will not really be impacted negatively by MK8D. The game is selling well on its own, regardless of Switch hype (which does help).
Principate
Saint Titanfall
(04-19-2017, 03:46 PM)
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Originally Posted by Gotdatmoney

They are trying to get people to double dip. XX will have a Switch port for the Holidays. Capcom is just shit with milking the fanbase though.

That's the expectation but who knows maybe Capcom really do have nothing major for this year.
Jawbreaker
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:46 PM)
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Originally Posted by zeromcd73

Decided to look around and it seems that Crash Bandicoot on PS4 has had no official announcement at all in regards to Japan, let alone a release date. Not even a single video posted on the official playstation youtube channel about Crash either.

Hm, that's pretty odd.
cw_sasuke
If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
(04-19-2017, 03:47 PM)
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Originally Posted by Ridley327

I still don't understand how they managed to misread the Switch launch hype with MHXX. It is one of the biggest no-brainers out there for an early title, and they somehow managed to screw that up.

Why compete with Zelda at launch on a system with a low user base when you can get people to Double Dip for MHXX HD in the Fall on a +3m userbase?

Expecting a lot of Switch announcement from E3 through fall from Japanese publishers.
Colonel Mustard
Banned
(04-19-2017, 03:47 PM)

Originally Posted by Principate

I think the main problem in drawing any direct comparson of system popularity at it's base level is that it's receiving multiple major system selling software in it's first few months something neither the 3DS or wii u had. It'll be long while until the effects off all of those wear off. The wii u got that level of software over the period of years and 3DS only really got it around Christmas where it shot up.

Are these system selling games not the very thing that establishes a console's popularity to begin with?
JonnyDBrit
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:47 PM)
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Originally Posted by Penguin

I know mostly about the Switch/Zelda, but seems like 1-2 Switch seems to be tugging along decently as well.

It's definitely the second game of the system at the moment. Will be curious to see if/how well that holds as more multiplayer titles - which MK8D, ARMs, and Splatoon all are - come to the system.
Usobuko
Banned
(04-19-2017, 03:47 PM)
3ds and switch are really impressive, especially for 3ds.

NieR, Horizon and Zelda are holding up well as well.
Ridley327
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:49 PM)
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Originally Posted by jonno394

Are you referring to a cross platform release on 3DS and Switch?

More or less, yeah. I don't think it would have been smart to drop 3DS entirely at that juncture, but ignoring new hardware with a game that would clean up real well on it is astonishing.

And hell, if the excuse is being uncertain if there's any cross-play capabilities, I don't think Nintendo is going to have any problem with trying to solve that issue, considering that we already know that Capcom had a major hand in determining the final hardware configuration for the Switch in the first place. This is Capcom playing it too damn safe and looking out of touch.
JonnyDBrit
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:49 PM)
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Originally Posted by L~A

The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild - Switch + Wii U = 475 837. 500k before the end of the month (most likely during MK8D week, unless there's a surprise increase for Week 16).

Looking at Wii U version sales (100k hit this week), I'd say that Zelda will not really be impacted negatively by MK8D. The game is selling well on its own, regardless of Switch hype (which does help).

Plus well, it's not hard to see how people who buy the system might also get Zelda to help justify their purchase and provide variety. One big multiplayer game and one big single player game is a good baseline to have when getting a system.
jonno394
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:49 PM)
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Originally Posted by Principate

I think the main problem in drawing any direct comparson of system popularity at it's base level is that it's receiving multiple major system selling software in it's first few months something neither the 3DS or wii u had. It'll be long while until the effects off all of those wear off. The wii u got that level of software over the period of years and 3DS only really got it around Christmas where it shot up.

I know you are correct, hence why Nintendos strategy of releasing games like MK8, Arms, Splatoon 2 every 6 weeks should mean the Switch doesn't reach the 10k area any time soon, especially in the time frames other devices reached it.

I honestly can't see the Switch selling sub 40k until many weeks after Splatoon 2, but then depending on whatever software is announced for September, it might not go that low at any point this year.
Mr Swine
Banned
(04-19-2017, 03:50 PM)
So we can safely say that Switch will be around 2-2.5 million at the end of the year if sales keep above 40k a week and then does 100-150k in he last 3 weeks of the year?
TheLegendaryN
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:51 PM)
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PS4 until June (as mentioned earlier in this thread)

04/20 - Dark Souls 3 The Fire Fades Edition, Parappa the Rapper
04/27 - Song of Memories、Tsuhou Senkyo, +2x super niche games

05/18 - Prey, Danganronpa 1/2 Reloaded
05/25 - Ys VIII, Hyper Light Drifter, Guilty Gear Xrd Rev 2, +1x super niche game

06/01 - Tekken 7
06/20 - Final Fantasy XIV Stormblood
06/22 - God Wars
06/29 - Lego City Undercover, Portal Knights, Danganronpa Another Episode, 2Dark

vs
Switch until June:

04/20 Minna de Waiwai! Spelunker
04/28 Mario Kart 8 Deluxe

05/26 Ultra Street Fighter II

06/01 Seiken Densetsu Collection
06/16 ARMS
06/29 Lego City Undercover

Less but bigger titles on Switch. In the upcoming 10 weeks.
jonno394
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:52 PM)
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Originally Posted by Mr Swine

So we can safely say that Switch will be around 2-2.5 million at the end of the year if sales keep above 40k a week and then does 100-150k in he last 3 weeks of the year?

Just for reference, 3DS sold 1.5m in its first December. But then it had Mario KArt 7 and Monster Hunter 3 release in that period too!
Zedark
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:53 PM)
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I've plotted the BOTW attach rate for Japan here, I think it's interesting to monitor it (for as long as we can anyway):



Code:

Week		Attach Rate
1		56,62
2		59,02
3		59,62
4		58,15
5		58,65
6		58,46
7		57,57
Chris1964
Sales-Age Genius
(04-19-2017, 03:53 PM)

Originally Posted by TheLegendaryN

PS4 until June (as mentioned earlier in this thread)

vs
Switch until June:

Less but bigger titles on Switch. In the upcoming 10 weeks.

If Switch was selling based on released games it should have dived below 20k already. It's riding launch, and maybe Splatoon, hype.
Kanann
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:54 PM)
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Originally Posted by TheLegendaryN

PS4 until June (as mentioned earlier in this thread)


vs
Switch until June:


Less but bigger titles on Switch. In the upcoming 10 weeks.

May 12th Minecraft
Graphics Horse
graphics horse
graphics horse
does whatever a
graphics horse does
(04-19-2017, 03:55 PM)
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Originally Posted by Mr Swine

So we can safely say that Switch will be around 2-2.5 million at the end of the year if sales keep above 40k a week and then does 100-150k in he last 3 weeks of the year?

It'll likely get supply bumps and hit 2M before Q4
Principate
Saint Titanfall
(04-19-2017, 03:55 PM)
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Originally Posted by Colonel Mustard

Are these system selling games not the very thing that establishes a console's popularity to begin with?

They are of course but in this particular example we're talking about many wii u ports and sequels so their would be a rough comparative base mark if they were as spaced out as on the wii u. Obviously the earlier support means larger initial install base which means third parties are more readily willing to support but this is an entirely simplified theoretical exercise anyway.
L~A
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:57 PM)
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03./03. [3DS] Mario Sports Superstars <SPT> (Nintendo) {2017.03.30} (4.980) - 10.698 / 61.879 (-43%)

Better sales than expected after the meh debut, looks like 100k is a lock. Will be interesting to see how it sells during GW, and if it pops back up during Summer holidays.
Mory Dunz
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:57 PM)
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Keep Calm and Switch
TheLegendaryN
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:57 PM)
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Originally Posted by Kanann

May 12th Minecraft

That's right. It's digital-only, so I forgot.

Originally Posted by Chris1964

If Switch was selling based on released games it should have dived below 20k already. It's riding launch, and maybe Splatoon, hype.

Zelda and 1-2-Switch combined are selling around 20k-30k, so that's where it should be right now, I guess. That lower number would be compensated by a bigger spike at MK8D's launch, which won't happen due to stock constraints.
vareon
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:58 PM)
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Originally Posted by random25

This is what I'm saying about 1-2 Switch. There's a decent audience for party games in Japan, so it's no surprise that up to now it still remains the 2nd best selling Switch game, by total sales and by weekly sales ranking.

It's the game people buy just in case friends/family come over to play your brand new Switch, I think. I think Mario Kart will take over its place very soon.
KtSlime
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(04-19-2017, 03:58 PM)
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Originally Posted by zeromcd73

PS4 schedule until the end of June:



Looks to be right. The only potential 100k seller on this would have to be Tekken 7. July has Gundam Versus/FFXIIHD which should definitely do 100k+ until DQ arrives.

That version of Tekken 7 is for PSVR, I doubt it will sell 100k.
metalslimer
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:59 PM)
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Originally Posted by Mr Swine

So we can safely say that Switch will be around 2-2.5 million at the end of the year if sales keep above 40k a week and then does 100-150k in he last 3 weeks of the year?

Yeah, but those would be some shit holiday sales for the potential lineup
random25
Member
(04-19-2017, 03:59 PM)
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Is there still a shortage of Switch or the production finally stabilized? MK8D bump could be impeded if there's still a stock shortage.
JonnyDBrit
Member
(04-19-2017, 04:00 PM)
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Originally Posted by random25

Is there still a shortage of Switch or the production finally stabilized? MK8D bump could be impeded if there's still a stock shortage.

Still supply constrained, I believe.
Chris1964
Sales-Age Genius
(04-19-2017, 04:00 PM)

Originally Posted by TheLegendaryN

Zelda and 1-2-Switch combined are selling around 20k-30k, so that's where it should be right now, I guess. That lower number would be compensated by a bigger spike at MK8D's launch, which won't happen due to stock constraints.

Zelda and 1-2-Swtch aren't the reason Switch is still out of stock right now.
Principate
Saint Titanfall
(04-19-2017, 04:00 PM)
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Originally Posted by Mr Swine

So we can safely say that Switch will be around 2-2.5 million at the end of the year if sales keep above 40k a week and then does 100-150k in he last 3 weeks of the year?

100-150k is literally a wii u level holiday
random25
Member
(04-19-2017, 04:03 PM)
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Originally Posted by JonnyDBrit

Still supply constrained, I believe.

That would be a bummer if next week it's still the case.
TheLegendaryN
Member
(04-19-2017, 04:03 PM)
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Originally Posted by Chris1964

Zelda and 1-2-Swtch aren't the reason Switch is still out of stock right now.

That's right. But what I mean to say is that in a normal situation, sales would now be lower and then rise again with the release of MK8 Deluxe in two weeks. The spike would be way bigger than now is possible due to production/stock constraints, so instead of a big spike, we'll see a more flat line but at a higher base level. (Although I think there will be a spike at MK8D launch, it won't reach anywhere near 100k)
Aostia
El Capitan Todd
(04-19-2017, 04:03 PM)
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Originally Posted by Usobuko

3ds and switch are really impressive, especially for 3ds.

NieR, Horizon and Zelda are holding up well as well.

Yes, 3DS too is keeping very "decent" sales so far despite the Switch hype
Orgen
Member
(04-19-2017, 04:03 PM)
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Originally Posted by Aostia

Well, PS4 is still hovering around 20k without significant recent games in the last few weeks, still up YoY and so on. Probably your question IS the issue: there are few significant games actually schedule until DQXI in July.

About MHXX it must be noted that MC is the tracker with lower LTD sales so far, with both Famitsu and Dengeki probably crossing the 1.5 million mark later today.
2 millions will not be achieved, imho, without the "Best price" release, but by a way smaller margin than originally expected looking at the first week MC numbers (not Famitsu nor Dengeki ones)

Still hovering around 20.000? It was at 30.000/week just 3 weeks ago (and it did have several significant launches the last few weeks with Nier, Horizon and Wildlands) so I wanted to know which ones were the next ones releasing because right now PS4 week sales seem very dependant on new releases instead of having an stablished baseline.

The 2.000.000 number was most in reference to the Capcom forecast as Nibel pointed out. With digital maybe it could reach that number... but I'm not sure anymore.

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