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Which super team movie will have the higher B.O numbers?

P

PhoncipleBone

Banned
broncobuster said:
People said that about Age of Ultron, too.

People also said Age of Ultron would top Star Wars 7.
Click to expand...

True. However, looking at past entries in the MCU and DCEU stuff, the floor for an Avengers film so far is above the ceiling for any DCEU so far.
That doesn't mean that the floor can't drop out from under Marvel and DC can't blow through the ceiling like a german soldier kneed through a window.

duckroll said:
Don't worry, when Infinity War falls short of the ridiculous expectations fans have for the boxoffice, they can always go "well of course, people are waiting for the REAL climax in Avengers 4!" :p
Click to expand...

That is also true. Just like we are waiting for the REAL climax to the Transformers saga in Transformers 6.
 
I

IndoAssassin

Banned
CaviarMeths said:
I like how you throw this in so that when JL inevitably falls like half a billion short of IW, you can be all like "well, it was a bad movie!"
Click to expand...

I don't get where this sky rocket numbers for IW are going to come from?

Avengers - 1.5B
AoU - 1.4B
CW - 1.1B

There's a gradual decrease in BO with Avengers in the movies. MCU market is shrinking as time goes. More and more people are choosing not to go to MCU movies as more movies come out because they feel lost.

That is the trend I am observing.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
IndoAssassin said:
I don't get where this sky rocket numbers for IW are going to come from?
Click to expand...

Avengers + Guardians vs Thanos doesn't have to skyrocket to beat Justice League. No skyrocketing is necessary.

IndoAssassin said:
MCU market is shrinking as time goes. More and more people are choosing not to go to MCU movies as more movies come out because they feel lost.

That is the trend I am observing.
Click to expand...

This seems like misguided B.O. analysis though.
 
I

Ithil

Member
IndoAssassin said:
I don't get where this sky rocket numbers for IW are going to come from?

Avengers - 1.5B
AoU - 1.4B
CW - 1.1B

There's a gradual decrease in BO with Avengers in the movies. MCU market is shrinking as time goes. More and more people are choosing not to go to MCU movies as more movies come out because they feel lost.

That is the trend I am observing.
Click to expand...
Why are you pretending CW is an Avengers movie?

Is it so you can say "it dropped from Ultron", even though it's a Captain America movie and increased from Winter Solider?
I'm sure you'll point out there were Avengers in it, but that won't make it not be called Captain America: Civil War.

That's the second time today I've seen that little trick attempted.
 
E

elrechazado

Banned
Ithil said:
Why are you pretending CW is an Avengers movie?

Is it so you can say "it dropped from Ultron", even though it's a Captain America movie and increased from Winter Solider?
I'm sure you'll point out there were Avengers in it, but that won't make it not be called Captain America: Civil War.

That's the second time today I've seen that little trick attempted.
Click to expand...
Trick? You think the non enthusiast public differentiates these movies that way? No way
 
P

Platy

Member
I am not feeling Justice League.

It had a troubled production, they only appear to notice that WW is their golden egg chicken now and it is from the makers of BvS, the real "FIRST REAL TEAM UP MOVIE IN THE DC UNIVERSE" =P
 
W

WillyFive

Member
Justice League would have had a chance if Man of Steel and BvS hadn't shown audiences that these are not good versions of these charters. Meanwhile, Infinity War is the big finale for a decade's worth of movies in a series that still gets massive numbers with its individual installments (and every team up film in it has gotten over a billion).
 
D

duckroll

Member
Worldwide numbers of MCU sequel performance.

Iron Man:
1 - $585,174,222
2 - $623,933,331
3 - $1,214,811,252

Captain America:
1 - $370,569,774
2 - $714,264,267
3 - $1,153,304,495

Thor:
1 - $449,326,618
2 - $644,571,402
3 - ???????????

GotG:
1 - $773,328,629
2 - $859,983,257

Avengers:
1 - $1,518,812,988
2 - $1,405,403,694

Seems like everything goes up except for Avengers. So could the ceiling be going down? Absolutely. But the floor is also going up.
 
E

elrechazado

Banned
Ithil said:
Yes I think they can read "Captain America Civil War" and not see the words "Avengers Civil War".
Click to expand...


Jeff: Yo bill, let's go see that next movie with iron man and captain america.

Bill: Hmm...which sub brand did it come out under? Its a crucial distinction

Jeff: Never mind Bill, I'm going with Steve.
 
I

Ithil

Member
elrechazado said:
Jeff: Yo bill, let's go see that next movie with iron man and captain america.

Bill: Hmm...which sub brand did it come out under? Its a crucial distinction

Jeff: Never mind Bill, I'm going with Steve.
Click to expand...

These people don't exist.

The only reason that poster above pretended Civil War was an Avengers movie was so he could claim "The Avengers films are dropping with every film!" to support his hope that Justice League will outgross it. He deliberately avoided noticing that the three Captain America films have seen substantial increases with each entry because it would wreck the narrative he was trying to push.
 
M

MiloHoffman

Member
IndoAssassin said:
It's logically Justice League.

MoS 668 55% RT
BvS 873 27% RT
SS. 745 25% RT
WW. 779 92% RT still climbing.

Even bad movies in the DCU still generate good money.

Justice League is coming out right after the great word of mouth from WW.
It is the first official team up movie in the DC universe.

MCU movies are all frontloaded and die off right away. Imagine if the first 3 movies had those RT scores there would be no MCU.

The MCU has stagnated in sales. DCU is now growing and its proven with the success of a minority hero.

If BP can do Wonder Woman numbers then IW has a chance vs a "good" JL movie.

Only way Infinity War earns more is if JL is a bad movie.
Click to expand...

1453125180193093367.jpg
 
A

Azerth

Member
elrechazado said:
Jeff: Yo bill, let's go see that next movie with iron man and captain america.

Bill: Hmm...which sub brand did it come out under? Its a crucial distinction

Jeff: Never mind Bill, I'm going with Steve.
Click to expand...

pretty sure most ppl just said "hey wanna see civil war?"
 
L

Lord of Castamere

Member
Tough question. IW has more people. Higher chance of no deodorant or long stretches between showers, but JL has weirdos from weird places. Honestly I think IW wins. Between Tony, Spidys, and BPs sweat suits, and the Guardians, its probably not a contest.
 
C

Cooter

Lacks the power of instantaneous movement
Grizzlyjin said:
Thor: Ragnarok - Dark World Team Up

It's such an uphill battle for DC. Even if Justice League was legitimately good, I think people would still be hesitant. Infinity War will put butts in the seats regardless of quality.
Click to expand...
Most likey IW but if JL somehow pulls in a WW rotten tomatoes score all bets are off. WW showed what a well reviewed DC movie is capable of.
 
I

inky

Member
Infinity War, but that's to be expected. Only a few of us are really able to comprehend the cinematic markings of true arthouse, deep and philosophical films like Justice League anyway. It's not really a movie for the masses like Marvel's.
 
I

IndoAssassin

Banned
Bobby Roberts said:
Avengers + Guardians vs Thanos doesn't have to skyrocket to beat Justice League. No skyrocketing is necessary.



This seems like misguided B.O. analysis though.
Click to expand...

No it doesn't but I don't see it doing more than the original Avengers either.

Avengers did 623M dom. 895M WW
AoU did 453M dom. 946M WW
CW did 408M dom. 745M WW

If the MCU market was growing how do you explain that huge drop from Avengers to AoU in dom numbers and the drop off in WW for CW? CW is marketed as an Avengers movie. Trailers show two teams of Avengers squaring off, posters show two teams of Avengers squaring off. Sure the story is focused more on Cap but none of the marketing promotes it that way.
 
D

duckroll

Member
I think it is pointless arguing whether Civil War is a "Captain America" movie or an "Avengers" movie, but it is worth taking note that Civil War came out a year after Age of Ultron, while Age of Ultron came out 3 years after Avengers. Infinity War is coming out 2 years after Civil War, so there's more of a gap there. These are the factors I think realistically have an impact on the audience turn out. Not whether the average joe gives a shit about what the title is.
 
V

VanWinkle

Member
I'm pretty hyped for JL, but it will obviously be Infinity War, if only because it's a culmination of 10 years of connected movies.
 
B

Bobby Roberts

Banned
Obligatory reminder:

International numbers, while bigger/gaudier - aren't as important to studios as the Domestic numbers are. The Domestic numbers mean more, and represent more money to the studios releasing the films.

Also, factors other than popularity/tickets sold play into international reciepts that further skew the numbers, and things like exchange rates can artificially inflate/decrease a film's performance.

IndoAssassin said:
If the MCU market was growing how do you explain that huge drop from Avengers to AoU in dom numbers and the drop off in WW for CW?
Click to expand...

Because Avengers movies aren't the only releases Marvel Studios puts out. If their audience wasn't growing, they couldn't sustain the steadily increasing number of films they release in a year

Infinity War will represent the Guardians series (which is obviously growing) meeting up with the Avengers. That's going to reflect in the box-office, I believe.
 
K

kswiston

Member
robotrock said:
Justice League. just look at the numbers between spiderman and wonder woman
Click to expand...

Spider-Man will probably end up making more than Wonder Woman worldwide. GotG2 already made more than Wonder Woman worldwide. I wouldn't be completely surprised if Thor Ragnarok ends up over Wonder Woman worldwide either, but that is the least likely of the three.
 
I

IndoAssassin

Banned
Ithil said:
These people don't exist.

The only reason that poster above pretended Civil War was an Avengers movie was so he could claim "The Avengers films are dropping with every film!" to support his hope that Justice League will outgross it. He deliberately avoided noticing that the three Captain America films have seen substantial increases with each entry because it would wreck the narrative he was trying to push.
Click to expand...

Hope? I hope all movies do well, I'm loving this.

Besides all sequels in the MCU have outgrossed the one before other than Avengers movies.
.
 
K

kswiston

Member
I'm expecting Infinity War to rebound over Age of Ultron domestically. I'm not going to bet on Avengers 1 numbers or anything, but I think that it can hit $500M (or at least get pretty close).

Overseas might be a different matter.
 
C

CaviarMeths

Member
IndoAssassin said:
I don't get where this sky rocket numbers for IW are going to come from?

Avengers - 1.5B
AoU - 1.4B
CW - 1.1B

There's a gradual decrease in BO with Avengers in the movies. MCU market is shrinking as time goes. More and more people are choosing not to go to MCU movies as more movies come out because they feel lost.

That is the trend I am observing.
Click to expand...

This isn't a trend you're observing, it's a narrative you're creating. Numbers can be manipulated however you want. Here's another way.

Iron Man - $585m
Iron Man 2 - $623m
Iron Man 3 - $1.21b

Captain America: The First Avenger - $370m
Captain America: The Winter Soldier - $714m
Captain America: Civil War - $1.15b

Thor - $449m
Thor: The Dark World - $644m
Thor: Ragnarok - if this makes less than $644m, I'll eat my hat

Guardians of the Galaxy - $773m
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - $860m

Besides Age of Ultron, every MCU sequel has outgrossed its predecessor. Every one. And even Age of Ultron performed exactly like every sequel to an already-huge movie. It declined because the first movie already hit a ceiling. When The Last Jedi makes less money than The Force Awakens this Christmas, it's not because people are losing interest in Star Wars. It's because that's just how things work.

As for non-sequels, they are earning more than non-sequels from previous phases too. Iron Man, Incredible Hulk, Captain America, and Thor averaged $416m in Phase 1. Since then, we've had Guardians ($773m), Ant-Man ($519m), Doctor Strange ($677m), and Spider-Man (will likely finish over $800m). Ant-Man will likely be the only post-Phase 1 origin movie to gross less than Iron Man.

And overall:

Phase 1 gross: $3.8b with 6 movies
Phase 2 gross: $5.2b with 6 movies

That's substantial growth. We're still in the middle of Phase 3, but before we even get to Infinity War, Phase 3 should already be sitting at around $5b.

Edit: Let me be clear though, I'm not one of those dorks predicting that IW is going to beat Avatar or whatever. I'm not even sure it'll beat the first Avengers. But I'm pretty comfortable in saying that its floor is higher than Justice League's ceiling.
 
D

Dyl

Member
Infinity War - $1.35 - 1.45b

Justice League is more of a wild card, mainly down to quality. Based on BvS doing ~870m despite terrible reviews, SS doing ~750m despite terrible reviews and no China, and WW making nearly 800m despite opening much lower than the former two films, I'll guess:

If <50% RT: 800-900m
if >70% RT: 1 - 1.1b

Star Wars will cut JL's legs, and Thor doesn't help either. JL won't win no matter what, but still should do solid numbers as long as it is decent.
 
D

duckroll

Member
kswiston said:
I'm expecting Infinity War to rebound over Age of Ultron domestically. I'm not going to bet on Avengers 1 numbers or anything, but I think that it can hit $500M (or at least get pretty close).

Overseas might be a different matter.
Click to expand...

Do you expect overseas to be closer to Ultron (>900m) or Civil War (>700m)? Do you expect overseas to have a possibility of being lower than Civil War?
 
I

IndoAssassin

Banned
CaviarMeths said:
This isn't a trend you're observing, it's a narrative you're creating. Numbers can be manipulated however you want. Here's another way.

Iron Man - $585m
Iron Man 2 - $623m
Iron Man 3 - $1.21b

Captain America: The First Avenger - $370m
Captain America: The Winter Soldier - $714m
Captain America: Civil War - $1.15b

Thor - $449m
Thor: The Dark World - $644m
Thor: Ragnarok - if this makes less than $644m, I'll eat my hat

Guardians of the Galaxy - $773m
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 - $860m

Besides Age of Ultron, every MCU sequel has outgrossed its predecessor. Every one. And even Age of Ultron performed exactly like every sequel to an already-huge movie. It declined because the first movie already hit a ceiling. When The Last Jedi makes less money than The Force Awakens this Christmas, it's not because people are losing interest in Star Wars. It's because that's just how things work.

As for non-sequels, they are earning more than non-sequels from previous phases too. Iron Man, Incredible Hulk, Captain America, and Thor averaged $416m in Phase 1. Since then, we've had Guardians ($773m), Ant-Man ($519m), Doctor Strange ($677m), and Spider-Man (will likely finish over $800m). Ant-Man will likely be the only post-Phase 1 origin movie to gross less than Iron Man.

And overall:

Phase 1 gross: $3.8b with 6 movies
Phase 2 gross: $5.2b with 6 movies

That's substantial growth. We're still in the middle of Phase 3, but before we even get to Infinity War, Phase 3 should already be sitting at around $5b.
Click to expand...

So if IW doesn't outgross AoU what does that prove?
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
kswiston said:
Spider-Man will probably end up making more than Wonder Woman worldwide. GotG2 already made more than Wonder Woman worldwide. I wouldn't be completely surprised if Thor Ragnarok ends up over Wonder Woman worldwide either, but that is the least likely of the three.
Click to expand...

Are you hopping on Ragnarok > Homecoming?

You will solidify the team.
 
K

kswiston

Member
duckroll said:
Do you expect overseas to be closer to Ultron (>900m) or Civil War (>700m)? Do you expect overseas to have a possibility of being lower than Civil War?
Click to expand...

I think Infinity War will end up closer to Age of Ultron. Civil War was still carrying the Captain America title, was missing some popular Avengers, was coming a year after a somewhat disappointing Avengers sequel, and was more treading water in the MCU (which was part of the problem with Age of Ultron as well). Infinity War avoids some of those, and is delivering on something that has been building for 6 years.

EDIT: Of course, this assumes the film is good.
 
C

CaviarMeths

Member
IndoAssassin said:
So if IW doesn't outgross AoU what does that prove?
Click to expand...

I think the MCU is still in the process of forming a base line. Like duckroll said, the ceiling is coming down, but the floor is going up. I think it's safe to say that the audience for MCU movies is going to remain pretty consistent throughout their current slate of movies. It's a pop culture mainstay for the foreseeable future.
 
I

Imperfected

Member
Infinity War is basically going to be a cultural touchstone of the generation, even if it's hot garbage, due to the enormous and unprecedented undertaking that's gone into the lead-in for it.
 
I

IndoAssassin

Banned
duckroll said:
I mean, I already told you what it proves earlier...
Click to expand...

Yah I just read it. But at what point is the floor profitable enough for these ensemble films?

With this movie costing rumored $500M dollars, is 1.4B even profitable considering Disney thought AoU was a failure?

Let's say JL earns 1.1B and IW earns 1.4B, but WB claims JL is a success whereas Disney considers IW is a failure. In this case does it matter if IW even outgrossed JL?
 
3

3N16MA

Banned
IndoAssassin said:
Yah I just read it. But at what point is the floor profitable enough for these ensemble films?

With this movie costing rumored $500M dollars, is 1.4B even profitable considering Disney thought AoU was a failure?

Let's say JL earns 1.1B and IW earns 1.4B, but DC claims JL is a success whereas Disney considers IW is a failure. Who wins?
Click to expand...

Disney considered AoU a failure? News to me.
 
S

snap

Banned
90%: Infinity War

10%: If Justice League is highly rated and Thor: Ragnarok and Black Panther underwhelm critically, and people come out of Infinity War feeling like they did about Age of Ultron, I can see Justice League edging out or matching Infinity War.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
You also gotta think something a bit different Marvel will do in the lead up to Infinity War is keep people guessing who is going to die. That isn't something they've ever done in their films in the past. Sure there's always been the "bad guy" stuff but you go into these films assuming the hero's win mostly unscathed and beat the bad guy.

As we can already see from the first leaked trailer Marvel is teasing Avenger deaths / a bit of a more bleak tone. I think that is gonna get audiences pretty interested in feeling there is some real significant danger for the heroes in this one, and hell Thanos has been built up as this huge threat for so long people are going to go out and see what that looks like.

I think this out grosses Ultron but does under the original Avengers. Only thing stopping that is if this somehow turns out to be hot garbage but considering this is the Russo brothers handling it the odds of that are very low
 
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