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Atlantic Hurricane season 2017 |OT|

Griss

Member
I vacationed to Nassau just days after Matthew came through last year. Y'all handled that storm pretty well so surely you can handle Irma if it comes your way

I'm not in Nassau I'm in a much less developed island much further south. Irene and Ike both messed us up bad. That said, anything Cat 3 or below and we still cope pretty well, things just shut down for two days as it passes through. Just waiting on a Cat 4 or 5 to ruin us one day.

Sure. Fuck the people in the islands :/

Hey, the hurricanes have to hit someone. Nothing wrong with hoping they avoid your spot and hit somewhere else. I certainly wouldn't take offence as a life-long island dweller.

After all, we know they're coming eventually! It's part of life out here.

The wife and I are supposed to vacation in St. Martin next week.

We're not gonna be vacationing in St. Martin next week, will we?

Still far enough out that it could miss St. Martin entirely but you're right in the Euro path and yeah, there's a serious chance that your trip is cancelled. I remember trying to get out of where I live for a rugby world cup holiday in 2015 and a hurricane cancelled all the flights out for three days. Fortunately I was able to rebook to the next week and ended up seeing much better games. Hopefully you have similar rebooking success if it comes to that.
 
Everyone from as far west as the Gulf coast to as far east as Newfoundland needs to keep an eye on Irma. We are a long wat from knowing where, if anywhere, it will impact.
 

Dishwalla

Banned
Its definitely September.
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Being in Hampton Roads I don't like this model.
 

Relix

he's Virgin Tight™
As a property owner/landlord, I need this hitting Puerto Rico like I need a hole in the head.
Haha. I was looking to buy a house, just started the process, and I decided to put on hold and see what happens with the hurricane.
 

MrNelson

Banned
The two main models are predicting two very different outcomes and the Euro hasn't shown a curve yet so we have to wait and see.
I know it's still a ways out, but I can't help but get flashbacks to Charley back in '04. The center was expected to rip right through Tampa Bay, just a few dozen miles from my house, and cause all kind of scary shit, like putting a good chunk of downtown Tampa under water, and turning Pinellas county into two islands. Luckily it made the turn a little sooner and missed us, but it was the only time we ever had to evacuate, and it scared the shit of me. And with all this shit about Harvey, a lot of stories have come back around the local news saying how a storm like that would cause the most damage this country has seen from an economic standpoint.

God, I hope that doesn't happen.
 
So they're no longer predicting another TS forming directly in the gulf?

Low chance.

2. An area of low pressure could form over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico by the weekend. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to be slow to occur as the low moves slowly northward.
If this system does develop, it could bring additional rainfall to
portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts. However, any rainfall
forecast is uncertain at this time range, and it is too soon to
determine any specific impacts. Interests in these areas should
monitor the progress of this potential system for the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
The 2 models point to 2 different scenarios at present. I think it's too far out to be 100% anyway.

The GFS is having an inaccurate run; Irma plows through the High Pressure ridge in its run which it won't do in reality (this is a known issue for whatever reason).

There is one thing people are getting pretty certain about though, Irma is setting up to hit somewhere in the U.S unless the high pressure ridge drastically changes.
 

Kusagari

Member
A lot of South Florida is fucked if something hits. They redrew the maps in 2014 and most were no longer required to have flood insurance.

I'm sure most ditched it.
 

MrNelson

Banned
I also heard it isnt going to hit Florida, it's supposed to make a turn north east.
The more reliable model doesn't show it making a turn yet. I was just wondering when/if that one had it making a turn after it got near the Gulf, because that makes a huge difference on if I need to start prepping sooner rather than later.
 

Raven117

Gold Member
Nature is launching these hurricanes like cannon balls.

Its like 05.

If you live in the South East (and of course Gulf Coast), go ahead and purchase your water and some simple non-perishable food now. You can do it at a leisurely pace with nothing crazy going on. Get a few candles, flash light, batteries, etc. You can always use it, and if you don't end up using the water, you can donate it. It wont go to waste.

If this year is anything like 2005, the "hysteria" will be very pronounced all season because of what happened here in Houston. Just like Katrina, everyone saw people being rescued out of the floodwater and will think the same thing could happen to them. This lead to the Rita evacuation in Houston (where over 100 people died, it was a cluster fuck of epic proportions and it didn't even hit Houston).

In other words, folks are just going to be more jumpy than usual. So yeah, get some stuff, put it in your closet and forget about it until you need it.
 

Retro

Member
Thread title is so strange as an outsider. Looks like it's something you guys almost celebrate. This years box set.

"Celebrate" isn't quite the right word; some people are just weather enthusiasts and following this sort of stuff is interesting, especially once you know enough to start making educated guesses about what's going to happen.

To be clear, we're not "disaster junkies," callously crossing our fingers and hoping for things to get wrecked or people to die. It's not about a body count or damage estimates, it's seeing Mother Nature act out in really dramatic ways, everything from sitting in the window and watching the lighting to hoping for more than a few measly inches of snow. Sometimes we slip up and forget that not everybody wants to see a "good" snowstorm come through and drop two feet of snow or that a tornado isn't "awe-inspiring" to everyone.

Nobody intentionally wants to see people injured, killed or displaced though, there's just something very exciting about watching all these natural forces slowly come together to create something so huge and powerful.
 
Oh boy. Very unexcited about Irma. I gotta go get some more canned food... And now I gotta eat all the meat in our freezer over the next week. So much food went to waste last year because of Matthew.
 

pestul

Member
Any historical data on the earliest forming major hurricanes of the Cape Verde variety? It feels like this is pretty early and also scary.
 
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