I thought 2015 was gonna be te peak year For XB1 too.
But now i have My doubt.
Back in January 2015 ( then i changed my predictions a lot of time ) i predicted XB1 to sell ~4.8 million in 2015 in USA. I expected better sales during the summer ( withouth March and September, because For obvius reason those were strong months For XB1 ) but a smaller holidays. In the end, withouth March XB1 was Always up YOY, and a important thing is that i did not expect Halo 5 to flop. But even so, XB1 still sold better than i expect.
Actually, i'm surprised that XB1 withouth even with a competitive PS4 At the same price has sold more than last year with a 80/50 more expensive PS4. This really mean that XB1 can still be strong.
All Will depend on the line up of this year. And For line up, i don't mean exclusives, because seriusly, if People still don't get that now the exclusives are not the main reason for sell a console, i don't even know what say...
There are good chance For see games Like Battlefield 5, Watch Dogs 2, Destiny 2, and of Course another COD this holidays.
I think Destiny 2 and Watch Dogs 2 Are pretty confirmed gonna be a Marketing exclusive for PS4.
Battlefield 5 will most likely be a exclusive Marketing for XB1, because we all know The partnership with EA / MS ( but not confirmed, See Battlefront ).
Now, The last COD... Huum, This is hard to guess. Yes, last time was a Sony thing, but we can't ignore the 7 years before that.
Imo, Call of Duty Marketing will be a important thing for PS4 / XB1 Performance.
If COD back to Microsoft: XB1 will almost for Sure be up YOY this year.
If COD remain on Sony console: XB1 will probabily be flat YOY.
Same with PS4, with COD Marketing the YOY increase will be much bigger, withouth that, the YOY increase should be nothing of crazy.
Also, we Need to analys much other things like Price drop, slim model, VR Performance ecc...
Well, i will end with my predictions as for 22 January 2016, i believe both PS4 ans XB1 will be up YOY. Both by a small margin ( like 5-10%) because 2015 was a strong year too.
And i also believe 2016 will be the last gold year for This generation. 2017 / 2018 are gonna be boring, imo, and 2019 Are the year of The New console.