Originally Posted by Pomerlaw
You sound too damn sure about this.
People thinking it's going to be like 2002 are wrong.
2002 > Lepen is an old one eye nazi and Chirac is faaaaar from being as on the right as Fillion or Sarkozy. Voting against Lepen is a survival matter, (also french are surprised and shocked, and humiliated by this second turn) and voting Chirac is not that horrible.
Now, Fillion/Lepen for second turn ?
_lepen is way more credible and accepted than her father
_She managed to steal some leftie ideas and has a strong popularity among poor workers.
_She's just higher in polls anyway than the FN ever was before
_There is no surprise or shock effect anymore. There is a resignation. I mean we've known for 5 years that she'll be at the second turn. It's a given, people have accepted it.
_Fillion is realllllly pretty far on the right.
_Left voters will basically be like "well fuck you then, keep your far right france i'm not interested." Some 'i heard some of them) will even think, "well if we're sinking, let's sink deep!"
I still think Fillion would win, but it won't be 80% i can tell you.
Now, if we have something crazy like Hamon/Lepen (who knows) or melanchon/lepen... God help us all. Cause i can tell you a big part of Fillion voters will go straight lepen.