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King_Moc
Member
(04-19-2017, 06:49 PM)
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Originally Posted by Billy_Pilgrim

Yes. This is the race for second place. No matter what, the Labour party is still best positioned to get rid of the tories now and in the near future.

Corbyn won't be around forever. The knives are already being sharpened. The knifiest of the knives.

The problem is, Corbyn is still going to be in a position whereby he can choose to go if he pleases. Those insane Labour members that are somehow convinced that every single poll is massively wrong by about 15% over the margin of error might not go away. Even with the proof that this election will bring.
Billy_Pilgrim
Member
(04-19-2017, 06:49 PM)
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Also if anyone is in the mood for some political history, this series on the downfall of the Labour party in the 80's is amazing watching and will put the world into context for you with regards to Jeremy Corbyn and his awkward squad.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIgi...AskN1R4ft_gkJi
jem0208
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(04-19-2017, 06:50 PM)
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To repost this for a new page: http://www.conservatives2017.com/
Huw_Dawson
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(04-19-2017, 06:50 PM)
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Originally Posted by King_Moc

The problem is, Corbyn is still going to be in a position whereby he can choose to go if he pleases. Those insane Labour members that are somehow convinced that every single poll is massively wrong by about 15% over the margin of error might not go away. Even with the proof that this election will bring.

Corbyn will cling on long enough to pass a rule allowing any MP to stand for leadership without being supported by other members of the PLP - that's all the hard left need to do now to guarantee perpetual control. Then it'll be a matter of getting as many Trotskyite MPs as possible in via by-elections and de-selections.
hydrophilic attack
(04-19-2017, 06:51 PM)
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Originally Posted by Breakage

I live in a Labour area in London. Voting in a GE is new to me - I never cared about politics or voting until the EU ref. I'll definitely be using my voting power from now on.

Do you know how big the Labour win was 2015? If really large you can probably choose non-Tory party based on personal policy preference. If the Tories have any chance at all, go Labour.

Regarding the bolded: Good! Better late than never. I hope more people get out of political apathy
CCS
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(04-19-2017, 06:52 PM)
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Originally Posted by Crab

You do realize that having less prominent Leavers in Labour is a worse thing for the party's electoral prospects than it is better, right?

I mean, their electoral prospects aren't exactly rosy as it is, can't really get much worse.
mo60
Member
(04-19-2017, 06:52 PM)
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Originally Posted by Huw_Dawson

We're getting the vast majority of the seats we lost to the Tories back. The question will be how soft Labour are going to be.

We know they're very soft. We've seen that in Gorton.

If we use our new members well and run a competent campaign - which we will, we have an excellent HQ team now - then we should be able to pull of something special. May may still get a majority, but at least folks on here and small l liberals across Britain won't have a totally dire night on Thursday 8th June.

Every Labour seat where we have a functioning party could be in play in a few weeks. It depends on how badly Corbyn does.

There's a higher chance of the conservatives ended up with a majority near Tony Blair's in 1997 and 2001 at this point then losing their majority.
Billy_Pilgrim
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(04-19-2017, 06:52 PM)
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Originally Posted by Huw_Dawson

Corbyn will cling on long enough to pass a rule allowing any MP to stand for leadership without being supported by other members of the PLP - that's all the hard left need to do now to guarantee perpetual control.

Nah. Crushing election defeat and they'll scatter back to their weird little single issues. This is the only thing I have any confidence in. They're already workshy, frustrated and sidelined in any serious business outside of momentum and CLP business.
Roberto Larcos
Member
(04-19-2017, 06:52 PM)
Who's going to be brave and get their predictions in early?

Conservative Party seats:
Green Party seats
Labour seats:
Lib Dem seats:
SNP seats:
Plaid Cymru seats:
UKIP seats:
Independently held seats:
Seats held by other parties:

BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland?
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland?
More Plaid Cymru seats than Labour in Wales?
The Portillo award goes to..?
First resignation of the night?
How many party leaders will resign?
Seat for Nuttall?
Margin of victory by seats:
Margin of victory by votes:

Post or PM your replies, bottle of something for the winner, or something like that. I'll setup a Google Doc or Excel spreadsheet that you'll be able to view the data from eventually.

Scoring works as follows: 1 point per correct seat allocation. 10 points per correct bonus question. For margin of victory by seats, 50 points for a perfect answer, lose 1 point per seat away from that perfect answer that you were. For margin of victory by votes, 50 points for a perfect answer (rounded to 100,000), lose one point per 100,000 that you were away from thay perfect answer. Margins will be between party with most seats / votes and the party with the second most seats / votes. Portillo award winner will be decided on the night.
Last edited by Roberto Larcos; 04-19-2017 at 08:42 PM.
Breakage
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(04-19-2017, 06:57 PM)
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Originally Posted by hydrophilic attack

Do you know how big the Labour win was 2015? If really large you can probably choose non-Tory party based on personal policy preference. If the Tories have any chance at all, go Labour.

Yeah in my area it was 60%. Cons were second with 14%

Originally Posted by hydrophilic attack

Regarding the bolded: Good! Better late than never. I hope more people get out of political apathy

Yeah, I've realised how important voting is.
CyclopsRock
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(04-19-2017, 06:57 PM)
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Free money available at Betfair: Odds on a Tory majority 1.18 (was 1.22 last night). This is literally free money, guys. Anyone with any liquidity, get on it. Remortgage your house, do whatever you have to do.
CyclopsRock
Member
(04-19-2017, 06:58 PM)
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Also great OP, Dan. I love how the Green picture for Lucas looks like a stock photo of "smiling businesswoman and man."
Real Hero
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(04-19-2017, 06:59 PM)
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Originally Posted by Breakage

Is voting for Labour even worth it? (or would my vote be better placed with the Lib Dems?)

where do you live?
PJV3
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(04-19-2017, 07:00 PM)
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Originally Posted by Billy_Pilgrim

Nah. Crushing election defeat and they'll scatter back to their weird little single issues. This is the only thing I have any confidence in. They're already workshy, frustrated and sidelined in any serious business outside of momentum and CLP business.

If we are going to get to a better position the right of the party needs to be a lot less aggro. Or we can wait for the Tories to collapse from exhaustion in 15 years or so.

The so called winning wing of the party has been incredibly clumsy the last few years, we need something better in future.
Crab
Famed for his Europa Universalis IV exploits
(04-19-2017, 07:01 PM)
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Conservative Party seats: 415
Green Party seats: 2
Labour seats: 140
Lib Dem seats: 16
SNP seats: 56
Plaid Cymru seats: 3
UKIP seats: 0
Independently held seats: Just John Bercow in GB
Seats held by other parties: 0

BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland? Yes
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland? Yes
More Plaid Cymru seats than Labour in Wales? lolno
The Portillo award goes to..? Clive Lewis
First resignation of the night? No major resignations - May will claim victory, Corbyn will refuse to resign, Farron will claim improvement and so stay on, Paul Nuttall of the UKIPs will win the Premier League, etc.
How many party leaders will resign? None
Seat for Nuttall? No

I'm leaving out Nireland because that shit's a mess, will have a look at the numbers later. Left out margin of seats and votes because I'm not sure whether you mean the distance between the winner and the second placed party or the size of the majority.
hydrophilic attack
(04-19-2017, 07:02 PM)
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Originally Posted by Breakage

Yeah in my area it was 60%. Cons were second with 14%

Then vote based on preference

Originally Posted by Crab

predictions.

Damn, that's depressing af
CCS
Member
(04-19-2017, 07:03 PM)
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Originally Posted by Hazzuh

Looks like the Tories are going with "strong and stable" as their slogan for the election.

Sounds familiar..

What are they, a table from Ikea? :P
SirRattleBalls
Banned
(04-19-2017, 07:04 PM)
Labour will be wiped out, They will most likely lose a vast majority of their seats outside of London.
Roberto Larcos
Member
(04-19-2017, 07:04 PM)

Originally Posted by Crab

Conservative Party seats: 415
Green Party seats: 2
Labour seats: 140
Lib Dem seats: 16
SNP seats: 56
Plaid Cymru seats: 3
UKIP seats: 0
Independently held seats: Just John Bercow in GB
Seats held by other parties: 0

BONUS:
Labour wipe-out in Scotland? Yes
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland? Yes
More Plaid Cymru seats than Labour in Wales? lolno
The Portillo award goes to..? Clive Lewis
First resignation of the night? No major resignations - May will claim victory, Corbyn will refuse to resign, Farron will claim improvement and so stay on, Paul Nuttall of the UKIPs will win the Premier League, etc.
How many party leaders will resign? None
Seat for Nuttall? No

I'm leaving out Nireland because that shit's a mess, will have a look at the numbers later. Left out margin of seats and votes because I'm not sure whether you mean the distance between the winner and the second placed party or the size of the majority.

Distance between first and second, will clarify in my post.
Breakage
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(04-19-2017, 07:04 PM)
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Originally Posted by hydrophilic attack

Then vote based on preference

f

Cool.
AHA-Lambda
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(04-19-2017, 07:07 PM)
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Labour wipe-out in Scotland?
More Conservative votes than Labour in Scotland?

to be fair those are already the case
Roberto Larcos
Member
(04-19-2017, 07:09 PM)

Originally Posted by AHA-Lambda

to be fair those are already the case

On current polling, sure. But on an election night with tactical voting aplenty? Who knows?
Last edited by Roberto Larcos; 04-19-2017 at 07:14 PM.
Hazzuh
Member
(04-19-2017, 07:09 PM)

Originally Posted by CCS

What are they, a table from Ikea? :P

It might sound dull but it's nothing compared to what they went with in 1929, "Safety First":

Crab
Famed for his Europa Universalis IV exploits
(04-19-2017, 07:10 PM)
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Originally Posted by AHA-Lambda

to be fair those are already the case

No? in 2015 Labour got 24,3% of the vote to the Conservatives' 14,9%. It's actually a relatively bold prediction - a significant minority of Scottish voters still go SNP for Holyrood and Labour for Westminster (who knows why).
Billy_Pilgrim
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(04-19-2017, 07:10 PM)
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Originally Posted by PJV3

If we are going to get to a better position the right of the party needs to be a lot less aggro. Or we can wait for the Tories to collapse from exhaustion in 15 years or so.

The so called winning wing of the party has been incredibly clumsy the last few years, we need something better in future.

It isn't a case of right v left. There are plenty of us on the edges of the centre left who hate him and the lunatics he's brought in. In truth it's the hard left and the marxists vs everyone else. Sad thing is that many of the young, naive fools clamouring for him daren't even admit to themselves that they're rooting for marxism. The rest don't understand what's wrong with it.
King_Moc
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(04-19-2017, 07:11 PM)
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Originally Posted by Hazzuh

It might sound dull but it's nothing compared to what they went with in 1929, "Safety First":

You never trust a man that ends every sentence with an exclamation mark. That's a rookie error.
Ravensmash
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(04-19-2017, 07:12 PM)
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Originally Posted by King_Moc

Look at how the votes went in your constituency last time. In mine it was something like, 16,000 tory, 12,000 Labour, 1,500 Lib Dem. So there's no point in me voting for anything other than Labour.

I live in an absolute Conservative strong hold. The old joke is that you could stick a blue rosette on a pig and it'd get voted in here.

I believe Lib Dems finished second in 2010, with a switch to Labour in 2015. Shall have to think carefully and see who's campaigning locally.
AHA-Lambda
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(04-19-2017, 07:14 PM)
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Originally Posted by Crab

No? in 2015 Labour got 24,3% of the vote to the Conservatives' 14,9%. It's actually a relatively bold prediction - a significant minority of Scottish voters still go SNP for Holyrood and Labour for Westminster (who knows why).

I was thinking more about the number of seats but wow, I hadn't actually realised the difference in votes there with tory and labour =/

I think conservative will get a big surge in votes this time though, don't know how that will translate to seats given our weird FPTP system
Bits N Pieces
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(04-19-2017, 07:16 PM)
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I wonder how man seats the SNP lose and how that affects the public perception of a mandate for another Indie ref?
Billy_Pilgrim
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(04-19-2017, 07:16 PM)
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Originally Posted by Bits N Pieces

I wonder how man seats the SNP lose and how that affects the public perception of a mandate for another Indie ref?

My guess is that they'll take a hit but it won't be significant enough to change much.

When people from all the fragmented tribes on the left and centre come to terms with how colossal the Tory victory has been, things will be very different.
HigXx
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(04-19-2017, 07:17 PM)
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Originally Posted by Bits N Pieces

I wonder how man seats the SNP lose and how that affects the public perception of a mandate for another Indie ref?

Originally Posted by Billy_Pilgrim

My guess is that they'll take a hit but it won't be significant enough to change much.

I think they'll gain at least 1 or 2 of the 3 remaining seats they haven't got in Scotland
tomtom94
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(04-19-2017, 07:18 PM)
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Originally Posted by Billy_Pilgrim

My guess is that they'll take a hit but it won't be significant enough to change much.

Depends mainly on if they lose them to the Lib Dems or the Conservatives, doesn't it? Lose three seats to the Lib Dems and they'd be less dominant, lose three seats to the Conservatives and it's a different story.
Royal_Phalanx
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(04-19-2017, 07:18 PM)
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All the leaders are turds. Reluctantly voting Labour because my candidate is on the Right of the Labour party and isn't a dinosaur fighting old battles.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
(04-19-2017, 07:18 PM)
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And here we go again! Nice OP Dan27, just a coupla notes on it:

Originally Posted by Dan27

Do not attack a poster because of their party affiliation. We are above party partisan politics. Policies should, logically, dictate a poster's party affiliation

Well, policies, plus the ability to actually carry them out, plus the ability to competently run all the existing stuff that nobody cares about without irreparably breaking it.

Theresa May, was elected new member leader of the Conservative Party and thus the UK’s second female Prime Minister. May quickly formed her Cabinet and focused the Tories as “the party of Brexit” and, along with existing trials and tribulations going on in the Labour party, started to gap the opposition in opinion polls.

On Tuesday 18th April, faced with continuing scrutiny on it’s handling of the post Referendum political landscape, exiting the EU and not having an election mandate, Prime Minister Theresa May called for a vote to repeal under the Fixed Term Parliamentary Act and for a UK General Election on the 8th June. This vote, held the day after, was successful by 522 votes to 13 and as such the voters of the United Kingdom will be called upon for the second third time in just over two years (one referendum and two General Elections).

Dammit, I'm all politicked out after last year.

Also dithering, which is unusual for me, between Conservative and LibDem.
Ravensmash
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(04-19-2017, 07:20 PM)
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I wonder if we'll see the return of Nigel?
Royal_Phalanx
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(04-19-2017, 07:20 PM)
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Originally Posted by phisheep

And here we go again! Nice OP Dan27, just a coupla notes on it:



Well, policies, plus the ability to actually carry them out, plus the ability to competently run all the existing stuff that nobody cares about without irreparably breaking it.



Dammit, I'm all politicked out after last year.

Also dithering, which is unusual for me, between Conservative and LibDem.

Sooo, why are you thinking of voting Conservative?
AHA-Lambda
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(04-19-2017, 07:20 PM)
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Originally Posted by Bits N Pieces

I wonder how man seats the SNP lose and how that affects the public perception of a mandate for another Indie ref?

I think they'll lose a couple but that'll be it
PJV3
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(04-19-2017, 07:21 PM)
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Originally Posted by Billy_Pilgrim

It isn't a case of right v left. There are plenty of us on the edges of the centre left who hate him and the lunatics he's brought in. In truth it's the hard left and the marxists vs everyone else. Sad thing is that many of the young, naive fools clamouring for him daren't even admit to themselves that they're rooting for marxism. The rest don't understand what's wrong with it.

Nah, there's a group in labour that never got over David Miliband losing let alone Jeremy winning. Corbyn needs to have gone long ago so I'm not not some die hard communist deluded about his prospects in the coming election.
DBT85
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(04-19-2017, 07:22 PM)
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My seat is strongly Conservative though LibDems had a really good showing in years gone by. Only in 2015 did they lose a ton of support.

It'll have to be #TeamYellow.

A little frustrating to be 99% sure that all that will happen is the Cons get a larger majority and just do whatever they want over the coming 5 years, though it might at least wake Labour up it won't.
mo60
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(04-19-2017, 07:22 PM)
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Originally Posted by PJV3

I imagine May would be damaged pretty badly if she doesn't increase it by much, expectations for Corbyn are so fucking low it would be a humiliation.

There's a chance the tories don't even break 400 seats at this point.Would May even care if they don't get an additional 70 seats.
Bazza
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(04-19-2017, 07:23 PM)
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Originally Posted by Ravensmash

I live in an absolute Conservative strong hold. The old joke is that you could stick a blue rosette on a pig and it'd get voted in here.

I believe Lib Dems finished second in 2010, with a switch to Labour in 2015. Shall have to think carefully and see who's campaigning locally.

Similar situation here, live in Surrey so no chance of a Tory loss. It actually makes me cringe every time I remember Jeremy Hunt is the MP for my area.
Chocolate & Vanilla
Fuck Strawberry
(04-19-2017, 07:24 PM)
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All my local representatives are cunts. I don't feel like any of the parties really match my political views fully so as usual i will be voting for my local Lib Dem cunt as it's the only way to keep the local Tory cunt out in my constituency. The local Labour cunt is nothing more than a distant also ran.



As an aside, I think I should get my own election night TV segment complete with CGI Twat-O-Vision wall. I'm clearly quite insightful and eloquent.
Last edited by Chocolate & Vanilla; 04-19-2017 at 07:27 PM.
brokenbeans
Big Swaggin'
(04-19-2017, 07:24 PM)
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I'm gonna be out the country what to do I do?

Apart from not come back 😀
tomtom94
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(04-19-2017, 07:25 PM)
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Originally Posted by mo60

There's a chance the tories don't even break 400 seats at this point.Would May even care if they don't get an additional 70 seats.

Any increase in the majority - particularly with young, fresh candidates who have less reason to stand up to the leadership - is good for May.
PJV3
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(04-19-2017, 07:25 PM)
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Originally Posted by mo60

There's a chance the tories don't even break 400 seats at this point.Would May even care if they don't get an additional 70 seats.

As it stands Corbyn is screwed, I was just thinking about possible unexpected events, though the events would probably require baby eating at this point.
Bits N Pieces
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(04-19-2017, 07:26 PM)
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Originally Posted by Billy_Pilgrim

My guess is that they'll take a hit but it won't be significant enough to change much.

When people from all the fragmented tribes on the left and centre come to terms with how colossal the Tory victory has been, things will be very different.


Originally Posted by HigXx

I think they'll gain at least 1 or 2 of the 3 remaining seats they haven't got in Scotland

There is no way they retain all their seats, nevermind win any of the three they don't currently hold.

As an SNP and Yes voter I worry that this could throw a real spanner in what the SNP are trying to do, I can see the both the Tories and Lib Dem getting into double figures between them. Labour are absolutely fucked though, they could become irrelevant after this GE in Scotland.
Linkstrikesback
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(04-19-2017, 07:26 PM)
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Originally Posted by brokenbeans

I'm gonna be out the country what to do I do?

Apart from not come back 😀

Apply for a postal vote.
Crab
Famed for his Europa Universalis IV exploits
(04-19-2017, 07:26 PM)
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Originally Posted by Billy_Pilgrim

It isn't a case of right v left. There are plenty of us on the edges of the centre left who hate him and the lunatics he's brought in. In truth it's the hard left and the marxists vs everyone else. Sad thing is that many of the young, naive fools clamouring for him daren't even admit to themselves that they're rooting for marxism. The rest don't understand what's wrong with it.

Nothing wrong with Marxism. The 12 actionable points set out in The Principles of Communism are progressive taxation, the establishment of state companies to give competition to monopolies and the gradual mutualization of those monopolies over time, the confiscation of property of rebels against the people (this means monarchists and is now kind of redundant), the institution of a minimum wage, a benefits system for all people who are willing to work (UBI is literally more communist than Marx!), the establishment of a national investment bank, a cultivation of fledgling industries, free education for all provided by the state, the provision of social housing for all, the destruction of unsafe slums, equal inheritance rights for those born out of wedlock, and complete state ownership of the transport system.

Marx and Engels mostly talk about class relations - they surprisingly rarely advocated specific economic policies, and it's always surprising how moderate the policies they actually advance are (a product of their times, I guess - universal education free of charge was pretty radical in the 1850s). "Marxism" is a sociological theory, and has relatively little to do with direct economic policy. Of the above 12 points, most have actually already been implemented in Western countries to some degree or another.

/small history lesson

Now if you said "Leninism", we have more to agree about. :p
mo60
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(04-19-2017, 07:27 PM)
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Originally Posted by tomtom94

Any increase in the majority - particularly with young, fresh candidates who have less reason to stand up to the leadership - is good for May.

A bad result for the tories would actually be only getting between 350 and 360. I think May would be pissed if they did not increase their majority by a crazy amount.

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