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Digital Foundry: If Xbox One X is $500 - How much will next-gen consoles cost?

Do next gen consoles even need to be more powerful than the XB1X? The Pro and XB1X are both hamstrung by the mandate to have all games playable on the regular models, so we'll never see the true potential of the Pro and XBX1. Even if next gen was barely more powerful than XBX1, there will be a meaningful improvement because developers will be allowed to push the new hardware.
 
It is the classic power V cost/accesability question.

Sony, MS, Nintendo, whoever. A console could be built for $1000+ easy and it would fail, because people do not want to spend that on a console. Simple as.

Otherwise, we have to settle for 'mid range' graphical power (in a PC context) for $300-500 max.

We can't have both.
 

Shin

Banned
Do next gen consoles even need to be more powerful than the XB1X? The Pro and XB1X are both hamstrung by the mandate to have all games playable on the regular models, so we'll never see the true potential of the Pro and XBX1.

This is factually incorrect...
The next generation of consoles will always be more powerful because there's a need for it from a development point of view.
All these games you're currently enjoying (assuming you have a current gen console) wouldn't have been possible without the machines becoming better/stronger.

Current generation are hamstrung by it's CPU, it was even before the consoles were released and this is starting to become more apparent.
Games developed after PS4P/XBOX came out or in development with them in mind are taking advantage of the hardware.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Do next gen consoles even need to be more powerful than the XB1X? The Pro and XB1X are both hamstrung by the mandate to have all games playable on the regular models, so we'll never see the true potential of the Pro and XBX1. Even if next gen was barely more powerful than XBX1, there will be a meaningful improvement because developers will be allowed to push the new hardware.
Both Pro and XB1X before being hold by Amateur consoles they are already capped in CPU front... that is the biggest hold back in these new consoles.

Said that the GPU power is low for a new generation... we are talking here about 300-400% more CPU power and over 100% more GPU power than the new Xbox.

So we need and deserves a new generation.
 

KOHIPEET

Member
I think everything is connected with AMD's Infinity Fabric.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HyperTransport#Infinity_Fabric

I did some research and yes. AMD said they think multiple core GPU's will become as common as multicore CPUs.

It's fascinating to think about the possibilities, due to the better yields they have with smaller chips, the cluster's price could be relatively low while having remarkable performance.

Also, multicore GPUs might not be the best for PC gaming (because the lack of really low level optimizations), but they should be perfect for home consoles.
 

The Jason

Member
My guess:

PS5 gonna be $400 and launch in 2020

Next Xbox is gonna be $400-500 and launch in 2020

People forget that a $500 console is really a $600+ console after buying 2 games. Consumers don't ever want to spend that much for a console and its been proven throughout history.
 

gamz

Member
My guess:

PS5 gonna be $400 and launch in 2020

Next Xbox is gonna be $400-500 and launch in 2020

People forget that a $500 console is really a $600+ console after buying 2 games. Consumers don't ever want to spend that much for a console and its been proven throughout history.

You can always have access to over 100 games (day one) with game pass which will probably be free with the first month.
 

KageMaru

Member
My guess:

PS5 gonna be $400 and launch in 2020

Next Xbox is gonna be $400-500 and launch in 2020

People forget that a $500 console is really a $600+ console after buying 2 games. Consumers don't ever want to spend that much for a console and its been proven throughout history.

The idea is that people who are willing to spend $1500-$3000+ on a TV are going to be more open to a $500 (or even a $400) console that takes better advantage of that TV. MS and Sony offer a cheaper alternative for the more budget conscious consumers.
 

Hermii

Member
Do next gen consoles even need to be more powerful than the XB1X? The Pro and XB1X are both hamstrung by the mandate to have all games playable on the regular models, so we'll never see the true potential of the Pro and XBX1. Even if next gen was barely more powerful than XBX1, there will be a meaningful improvement because developers will be allowed to push the new hardware.
If xb1x had come out a year later with ryzen and otherwise the same or slightly better specs at 400, it would have qualified as a next gen system.
 
Give me value and I can stomach higher prices for the base console. I realize I'm in the enthusiast crowd, so my opinion isn't in step with the general audience, but show me a reason for that extra $100-$200, and I'm in. Show me something that clearly is not feasible on current gen, and I can rationalize the premium.
 

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
You can always have access to over 100 games (day one) with game pass which will probably be free with the first month.

This, EA Access, B/C all helps take the weight of of buying games with a new system.

Its one reason why I had some games when I got the XBO S back in December. Those cheap 360 games helped fill the gap until I could get some XBO games.

BC is the thing I like the most out of all the things MS has done this gen.

Sony will be playing a dangerous game if the PS5 isnt BC with PS4 games.
 

AmyS

Member

That's good news for the CPU side of things.

Of course, next gen consoles will probably use a mobile variant of Zen 2, but it's nice to hear AMD having such a good time with first gen Zen / RyZen. -- Now if only they could get their problems solved with their high-end GPUs. It seems they're having a terrible time with Vega. That said, hopefully that has no baring on future GPUs, i.e. Navi.
 

JusDoIt

Member
It is the classic power V cost/accesability question.

Sony, MS, Nintendo, whoever. A console could be built for $1000+ easy and it would fail, because people do not want to spend that on a console. Simple as.

Otherwise, we have to settle for 'mid range' graphical power (in a PC context) for $300-500 max.

We can't have both.

This. Honda could make cars like the Tesla Roadster, but they know it's the Civics that are gonna move units.
 

KOHIPEET

Member
That's good news for the CPU side of things.

Of course, next gen consoles will probably use a mobile variant of Zen 2, but it's nice to hear AMD having such a good time with first gen Zen / RyZen. -- Now if only they could get their problems solved with their high-end GPUs. It seems they're having a terrible time with Vega. That said, hopefully that has no baring on future GPUs, i.e. Navi.

Regarding GPUs, I think they'll shine with their "cluster-GPU" architecture if yields are this good. Of course we'll see how 7nm turns out.
 

AmyS

Member
Regarding GPUs, I think they'll shine with their "cluster-GPU" architecture if yields are this good. Of course we'll see how 7nm turns out.

Yep.

Do next gen consoles even need to be more powerful than the XB1X? The Pro and XB1X are both hamstrung by the mandate to have all games playable on the regular models, so we'll never see the true potential of the Pro and XBX1. Even if next gen was barely more powerful than XBX1, there will be a meaningful improvement because developers will be allowed to push the new hardware.

Overall, across all aspects of the spec, yes they do.

While nobody should expect PS5 (and Microsoft's equivalent) to have a GPU with 8x the Flops performance of Xbox One X GPU (6TF), they still need to be comprehensively more powerful than XBX1 across the board. CPU architecture and clock speed, GPU feature-set, compute performance, texture units, ROPs, etc and bandwidth. Amount of RAM. Storage and storage speed. Roughly 8-10x more powerful than base 2013 consoles, or 2.5 to 3 times more powerful than XB1X. Enough to support native 4K ( or close to it with checkerboard) while at the same time handing next generation game engines with a clear leap in visual complexity, lighting, physics, animation, etc. Larger worlds that are much more dynamic Some of those things will come down to the CPU, other things will rely on the GPU. And then there's the amount of RAM and how fast it is.

Edit:

If next gen consoles implement a storage / high bandwidth cache / RAM setup based on, or similar to, AMD's Radeon SSG, it could literally be a game changer. - Of course, consoles wouldn't need, and could not have 1-2 TB of solid state, but 256 ~ 512 GB would still be very useful. Hopefully the cost per GB falls enough to become feasible by 2020-2021.

Aside from silicon, next gen consoles will no doubt have new standard controllers / input (which is not the case with PS4 Pro or XBX1) and much better support for VR (or mixed reality as MS calls it).
I think 4K VR combined with foveated rendering (in a nutshell, eye tracking at 240 Hz) to off-load the GPU and speed up performance will be a thing.

Mainly, I believe Mark Cerny, and I believe he is correct, heading in the right direction, etc when he says Sony still believes in clearly defined generations.
 
That's good news for the CPU side of things.

Of course, next gen consoles will probably use a mobile variant of Zen 2, but it's nice to hear AMD having such a good time with first gen Zen / RyZen. -- Now if only they could get their problems solved with their high-end GPUs. It seems they're having a terrible time with Vega. That said, hopefully that has no baring on future GPUs, i.e. Navi.
What problems, exactly?

I imagine that using faulty GPU dies will be a lot easier than faulty CPU dies... just disable a couple of CUs and they're good to go. After all, that's what they do with console APUs as well.
 

AmyS

Member
What problems, exactly?

I imagine that using faulty GPU dies will be a lot easier than faulty CPU dies... just disable a couple of CUs and they're good to go. After all, that's what they do with console APUs as well.

Rumors about Vega being very power hungry, not to mention that consumer cards are months late.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=241512417&postcount=587

https://gathering.tweakers.net/forum/list_message/51654713#51654713
https://videocardz.com/70465/msi-damn-rx-vega-needs-a-lot-of-power

Edit:

I know that's off-topic and it's isolated both in terms of time frame and product, from future consoles. Shouldn't affect consoles at all.

Although now it totally makes sense that XBX1 is using a 40 CU Polaris GPU.
Many people, including myself, as well as Eurogamer / DF, thought Scorpio might use a cut down, low clocked Vega.
 
Well the Xbox One was also $500 so why does it have to be more than that?

This... essentially in a nutshell.

For someone who styles himself as an expert in technology, Richard is woefully ill-informed here and doesn't even justify his claim that we'll be paying more for next-gen consoles.

(i) Mid-gen consoles are a new concept for this industry, so comparing anything to Xbox1X (which is designed as a premium box) is seriously flawed.
(ii) More damning for his argument is that Xbox 1 launched at $499 (something he fails spectacularly to mention) and the Xbox1X die-size is exactly the size as the XB1's.
(iii) XB1X die size is so big because the box has to maintain 1:1 compatibility with XB1, so still has all the audio SHAPE blocks and other fixed function gubbinz that a next-gen PS5 won't have.
(iiii) Console designs are designed from the outset on the basis of die-size and TDP, all to achieve a target price point at the inevitable point of sale. They don't target X times the power of the previous gen. and then the price is just what it is (well... PS3 did and look how that turned out... lol).

Sony will design for a launch price of $399 with PS5, same as PS4, as that is the sweet spot that got them 60m consoles sold in close to four years. The die-size and TDP selected with reflect that objective and the performance of the box will the maximum amount of GPU, CPU, memory bandwidth and RAM they can fit on an APU design within those constraints on a mature 7nm manufacturing process (or perhaps APU+organic interposer, if they're using HBM3 stacks on die).

MS will probably target the same price or similar, especially given their performance this gen. They will want to compete on price. OR, they might decide power is more important and launch a year later at $499 with a bigger die.

Neither will need fancy vapour chamber cooling, because they'll simply use a bigger chassis for the initial console iterations and clock the boxes reasonably (e.g. sub-Ghz depending on whether Navi is like Vega and designed to be clocked higher) to attain an acceptable level of performance within their target silicon and TDP budgets (I'd estimate perhaps 10-13 TFLOPs GPUs).

None of this is new to Richard. So I'm rather surprised by this video.
 
Yep.



Overall, across all aspects of the spec, yes they do.

While nobody should expect PS5 (and Microsoft's equivalent) to have a GPU with 8x the Flops performance of Xbox One X GPU (6TF), they still need to be comprehensively more powerful than XBX1 across the board. CPU architecture and clock speed, GPU feature-set, compute performance, texture units, ROPs, etc and bandwidth. Amount of RAM. Storage and storage speed. Roughly 8-10x more powerful than base 2013 consoles, or 2.5 to 3 times more powerful than XB1X. Enough to support native 4K ( or close to it with checkerboard) while at the same time handing next generation game engines with a clear leap in visual complexity, lighting, physics, animation, etc. Larger worlds that are much more dynamic Some of those things will come down to the CPU, other things will rely on the GPU. And then there's the amount of RAM and how fast it is.

Edit:

If next gen consoles implement a storage / high bandwidth cache / RAM setup based on, or similar to, AMD's Radeon SSG, it could literally be a game changer. - Of course, consoles wouldn't need, and could not have 1-2 TB of solid state, but 256 ~ 512 GB would still be very useful. Hopefully the cost per GB falls enough to become feasible by 2020-2021.

Aside from silicon, next gen consoles will no doubt have new standard controllers / input (which is not the case with PS4 Pro or XBX1) and much better support for VR (or mixed reality as MS calls it).
I think 4K VR combined with foveated rendering (in a nutshell, eye tracking at 240 Hz) to off-load the GPU and speed up performance will be a thing.

Mainly, I believe Mark Cerny, and I believe he is correct, heading in the right direction, etc when he says Sony still believes in clearly defined generations.

I entirely agree. Although, I'm swayed more on the side of both Sony and MS making a conscious decision not to allow VR to influence their box designs.

VR is still too much of an unknown, and I doubt either will be willing to stake the future success of their consoles on it, similar to how MS did with Kinect with XB1 (and then performed one of the most spectacular 180s in the history of gaming).
 

Shin

Banned
Of course we'll see how 7nm turns out.

Yields were healthy during risk production at TSMC, taking designs from customers already (same with GlobalFoundries).
7nm is on track, yields for it might be a less of a worry compared to AMD GPU side of things.
If Navi suffers the same fate as Vega then it might spell trouble for the consoles and affect their release date.

Of course, next gen consoles will probably use a mobile variant of Zen 2, but it's nice to hear AMD having such a good time with first gen Zen / RyZen
Looking at the time line it would be Zen 3 (2019 desktop, 2020 mobile)
Tweakers forum, you're Dutch Amy?
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
I feel like the determinating factor of powerful next gen needs to be only comes down to the question of if devs are going to go in with native 4K as something they are looking at standardizing.

If not, an 8tflop GPU would do the job to usher in a next gen experience.That resolution boost to 4K is going to eat up a lot of GPU power by default, and we already have a lot of devs saying that they think 4K is a waste of resources compared to what they could do with checkerboard rendering or lower resolutions like 1440p or even 1080p with good AA.

Games like Anthem are designed to work on XB1 and PS4, despite any prettying up on XB1X or Pro, so its not really applicable.
 

AmyS

Member
Yields were healthy during risk production at TSMC, taking designs from customers already (same with GlobalFoundries).
7nm is on track, yields for it might be a less of a worry compared to AMD GPU side of things.
If Navi suffers the same fate as Vega then it might spell trouble for the consoles and affect their release date.


Looking at the time line it would be Zen 3 (2019 desktop, 2020 mobile)
Tweakers forum, you're Dutch Amy?

No, I am not :)

As for Zen 3 mobile for next gen consoles, maybe, but it takes several years to design a console, so it depends when specs get locked down.
 

Shin

Banned
Maybe in the second half of 2019 they'll have it locked down, assuming the presentation is in February again of 2020, they'll need to discuss the specs.
In theory Zen 3 would be possible if desktop and mobile are developed simultaneously, AMD/Sony should have an idea of what's possible.
Most likely multiple designs are in play also during the development of a system with different configurations, this side of the the business is a mystery.
 

RoboPlato

I'd be in the dick
Do we know what sort of improvements Ryzen 2 and Ryzen 3 will bring? I've seen AMD's roadmaps for timeframes but not featureset.

I feel like the determinating factor of powerful next gen needs to be only comes down to the question of if devs are going to go in with native 4K as something they are looking at standardizing.

If not, an 8tflop GPU would do the job to usher in a next gen experience.That resolution boost to 4K is going to eat up a lot of GPU power by default, and we already have a lot of devs saying that they think 4K is a waste of resources compared to what they could do with checkerboard rendering or lower resolutions like 1440p or even 1080p with good AA.

Games like Anthem are designed to work on XB1 and PS4, despite any prettying up on XB1X or Pro, so its not really applicable.
I think adaptive resolution is going to be very common next gen and reconstruction techniques won't be going away either.
 

Shin

Banned
Too less information about Zen 2/3 at this moment, improved IPC, scalability, etc etc.
Nothing new really, beside that it will be released in early 2018 (Zen2), we'll have to wait on their next conference call/show for more concrete details.
Kinda cool that they took such a big step in 1 swoop to close in on Intel, it bodes well for Zen2/3. Thing might even outperform it in all area's, I wonder if a Zen 3 mobile will be better than say Ryzen 7 1700 desktop.
 

JaseC

gave away the keys to the kingdom.
It's an interesting question as I firmly believe MS and Sony have entered a game of leapfrog and there won't be more than two years between their respective upgrades or otherwise new consoles for as long as consumers are willing to put up with such a mobile phone-esque approach. I'd imagine neither company is keen on the idea of pricing a console north of USD$500 on account of the rough start the PS3 had, but I won't be the least bit surprised if the successor to the PS4 Pro also lands somewhere within the USD$400 ballpark.
 

Shin

Banned
It's an interesting question as I firmly believe MS and Sony have entered a game of leapfrog and there won't be more than two years between their respective upgrades or otherwise new consoles for as long as consumers are willing to put up with such a mobile phone-esque approach.

I was just reading up on a press release from GlobalFoundries and something stuck out.
PS4 was launched with a 7850 GPU (Pitcairn Pro probably), they later followed up with PS4 Pro which uses a Polaris GPU with features from Vega.
Seeing as how it's all Zen from here on out and Vega is soon to be released AND 7nm is available, Sony could very well force a 2018/2019 release and forgo 7nm+/Zen3.
It didn't stop them for taking that route with PS4, if they really want the power/graphical crown, in 2021/22 they could do the same thing they did with PS4Pro and go with Navi+/Zen3+/7nm EUV or maybe even 5nm by that time (since it's due in 2021).

This is interesting as to why I'm saying the above, notice the die cost from 14nm to 7nm.
Dropping a 8.5 - 9TF box coupled with a Ryzen 2 mobile CPU should keep the price in check at $399 and the CPU in Pro will probably be the same family so no issues there.
It is the base model that will sell the most anyway, price point is key and the technology is available already.
The one year earlier launch advantage with PS4Pro might be key as they theoretically could keep besting MS.

I'm somewhat skeptical that PlayStation will leave 3 years of advantage on the table (in the case of a 2020 launch).
They have brand power, something MS lacks, people will lose their shit over the next PlayStation - PS5.
That alone could carry them along with a $399 price, they got the games also, that's another thing MS lack, plus 2x $499 wasn't smart.

21d719a3af.jpg


3a246d4833.png
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
Sony were willing to come out with pro despite being leapfrogged in power. their europe firewall isnt going to to broken by xbox one X, so they are not under any pressure to release faster. Also, PS4 had to come out with jaguar because that was the only CPU in a decent power evelope that was cheapr that AMD had at the time for an APU at 28nm


AMD are actively rushing their CPU semicustom lines specifically to meet the demands of their console clients for the next cycle, i can promise you that
 

newbong95

Member
8-16 cores of arm cpu .... with low power vega/navi for portable sku ... near about original ps4 power . Keeping the cpu same and increasing the gpu to 8-10tf for targeting 4k in a box . 2020 ... playstation family - mobile for 400$-1080p / console for 500$-4K
 

Inuhanyou

Believes Dragon Quest is a franchise managed by Sony
8-16 cores of arm cpu .... with low power vega/navi for portable sku ... near about original ps4 power . Keeping the cpu same and increasing the gpu to 8-10tf for targeting 4k in a box . 2020 ... playstation family - mobile for 400$-1080p / console for 500$-4K

You keep repeating that but it doesn't make the idea any less strange
 
8-16 cores of arm cpu .... with low power vega/navi for portable sku ... near about original ps4 power . Keeping the cpu same and increasing the gpu to 8-10tf for targeting 4k in a box . 2020 ... playstation family - mobile for 400$-1080p / console for 500$-4K

Neither MS nor Sony will Switch CPU ISA from x86 to ARM. Never going to happen.

The software investment made for PS4 and XB1 are in terms of OS and feature apps are intended to be easily ported across to the next generation. Both companies want to be able to hit the ground running and MS more so than Sony, with their virtualized software environment, is doubly intent on this. ARM in PS5/Next-box will never happen.
 

MilkyJoe

Member
Sony were willing to come out with pro despite being leapfrogged in power. their europe firewall isnt going to to broken by xbox one X, so they are not under any pressure to release faster. Also, PS4 had to come out with jaguar because that was the only CPU in a decent power evelope that was cheapr that AMD had at the time for an APU at 28nm


AMD are actively rushing their CPU semicustom lines specifically to meet the demands of their console clients for the next cycle, i can promise you that

I'm pretty sure there was a mention of consoles in the roadmap slide too , that wasn't for X1 that's for sure.
 

Blanquito

Member
7nm (gen 1) Global Foundries production begins in mass in 2H 2018. They're also focusing on high performance chips, not just mobile SoCs

The 7 nm platform of GlobalFoundries is called 7LP for a reason — the company is targeting primarily high-performance applications, not just SoCs for smartphones, which contrasts to TSMC’s approach to 7 nm. GlobalFoundries intends to produce a variety of chips using the tech, including CPUs for high-performance computing, GPUs, mobile SoCs, chips for aerospace and defense, as well as automotive applications.

7nm (gen 2) starts sometime 2019 -- date TBD.

If next gen is out in 2019 (I personally think it will be), 7nm gen 1 should be ready for console mass production.

Then a possible internal upgrade (but not a slim model) to 7nm gen 2 -- which just provides better yields but not better performance/power savings compared to gen 1.

And then slim models with 7nm gen 3 in 2021 -- better power and performance comes with 7nm gen 3.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/11558/globalfoundries-details-7-nm-plans-three-generations-700-mm-hvm-in-2018
 

Shin

Banned
I hope 500-600 so that they would have more power this time, but lots of people would be unhappy

If that gets us 32Gb RAM and a 8-10 core CPU around 3.5Ghz then I'll take it.
They are probably taking a $50 hit on PS4 Slim or close to that, components might have gotten cheaper but not $250 cheap.
 

anothertech

Member
Things are going faster than expected.

I expect 2019, holiday, ps5 using zen2/3, hbm3 and navi gpu hitting that $399 pricepoint due to this. The amount of HBM will likely be kept under wraps till close to launch. But that kind of bandwidth is going to turn heads.

Xbox will do somthing similar in 2020 for $499 if tradition continues.
 
Things are going faster than expected.

I expect 2019, holiday, ps5 using zen2/3, hbm3 and navi gpu hitting that $399 pricepoint due to this. The amount of HBM will likely be kept under wraps till close to launch. But that kind of bandwidth is going to turn heads.

Xbox will do somthing similar in 2020 for $499 if tradition continues.
If the tradition continues? What tradition? The xbox one was 100 dollars more expensive because of kinect. The xbox one x is 100 dollars more than the ps4 pro because it has beefier specs and a 4k blu ray player. Is a 4k blu ray player, a higher clocked cpu, a slightly more powerful gpu, and 4 extra gigs of ram and a fancy cooling system not worth 100 dollars more? The 360 was cheaper than the ps3. MS will be right on point with the next xbox and it won't be a penny higher than the ps5. The logic in the OP article is stupid. But I do agree the next systems for both sony and MS will be out in the fall of 2019. Any longer is absurd. And MS has the advantage here because their strategy of keeping similar architecture but with higher specs should be a lot easier for them to get something out sooner, especially with the introduction of the xbox one x. The xbox one x will likely be a starting template for the next xbox. That says to me cheaper than 500 and a release in 2019.
 

Shin

Banned
And MS has the advantage here because their strategy of keeping similar architecture but with higher specs should be a lot easier for them to get something out sooner.

That's not a strategy that's being dependent on AMD just like Sony.
Releasing another console before or along side Sony, don't know if that's smart because XBOX is coming out 1 year later as is.

I would find it funny though if they release a new console every 2-3 years, it's more interesting to me instead of this long ass situation PlayStation is going for.
 
Consoles have an approx 18 month lead time between their hardware being finalised and released. You cant just look at AMD road maps and then slap that technology in a console in the same time frame.

Remember when people though X1X might have Zen, or a full Vega GPU? Didn't happen. So if you want a 2019 PS5 you need to be looking at mid 2018 tech.
 

Zil33184

Member
Consoles have an approx 18 month lead time between their hardware being finalised and released. You cant just look at AMD road maps and then slap that technology in a console in the same time frame.

Remember when people though X1X might have Zen, or a full Vega GPU? Didn't happen. So if you want a 2019 PS5 you need to be looking at mid 2018 tech.

If you look at PS4 pro, that doesn't seem to be the case. It's based on Polaris which launched just a few months before and had features from further down AMD's gpu roadmap. Even the OG PS4 had elements in it that weren't in any 2012 GCN gpu.
 

Shin

Banned
You cant just look at AMD road maps and then slap that technology in a console in the same time frame.

Yes and no, semi-custom SoC it doesn't follow AMD's roadmap so closely.
Console manufacturers have their own schedule to stick to as does AMD, if it doesn't line up then yeah they'll have to settle for less.

In this case a 2019 PS5 would be something like Navi/Zen2, 2020 would be Zen3/Navi+ feat from next gpu.
 
Elements of future tech sure, where it's easy to do so. But generally you don't get that years cutting edge tech, you get the mid range of the previous years. Tech which is viable to be sold at console price for around break even. The price is the biggest enemy of components for a console.
 
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