Weltall Zero
Member
What an absurd argument to make. You really think all numbers are equal? You think ruling out > 10m is the same as ruling out > 1000m?
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Credit Suisse upgrades Nintendo rating, expects 130m Switches by 2022
- Thread starter Skittzo0413
- Start date
What an absurd argument to make. You really think all numbers are equal? You think ruling out > 10m is the same as ruling out > 1000m?
Principate
Saint Titanfall
Of course it matters the supply problems won't their it's whole lifespan it's the demand that will ultimately determine whether it reaches or surpasses those numbers. It's already selingbat or above the numbers the ps4 has in the US and very well in Japan. Keeping in mind this is likely the peak year for sales PS4 wise it's doing very well to maintain that and pretty much all analysts expect bit surpass the 10 mil FY.
I'm not saying it will or will not reach those numbers I'm saying predicting numbers based on the insane stock limitations currently is pointless.
HighResTomato
Member
Still waiting on a price drop or a refresh.
SnowFlakeCake
Member
This is the dumbest sales prediction I have heard in some time, the projections which this console is getting are insane considering the sales at the moment are very good, but not groundbreaking.
I just feel upset that I went into healthcare and have to do my job to a good standard, when the financial sector get paid as well if not better, to come up with shit like this!
80 million if Switch gets lucky as fuck, book it.
I just feel upset that I went into healthcare and have to do my job to a good standard, when the financial sector get paid as well if not better, to come up with shit like this!
80 million if Switch gets lucky as fuck, book it.
When the Switch is also like 129.99 and the PS5 is 699.99 lol.
This is the dumbest sales prediction I have heard in some time, the projections which this console is getting are insane considering the sales at the moment are very good, but not groundbreaking.
I just feel upset that I went into healthcare and have to do my job to a good standard, when the financial sector get paid as well if not better, to come up with shit like this!
80 million if Switch gets lucky as fuck, book it.
Lol. 80 million is way too low given the current trajectory and future diversification possibilities.
D.Lo's got it booked and ready! Start salting your crow now.
Skittzo0413
Member
This is the dumbest sales prediction I have heard in some time, the projections which this console is getting are insane considering the sales at the moment are very good, but not groundbreaking.
I just feel upset that I went into healthcare and have to do my job to a good standard, when the financial sector get paid as well if not better, to come up with shit like this!
80 million if Switch gets lucky as fuck, book it.
The sales are majorly hamstrung by a component shortage which seems to be coming to an end, and it was the second best console launch of all time in the US, even ahead of the XB1 yet without the benefit of a holiday season.
I do agree that this prediction is way too bullish, but it will be hard to judge just how high the demand is until the stock situation improves and it has one holiday season under its belt.
Theonik
Member
Hats are unappetizing so I like to very carefully phrase these things! The trick is to make really safe predictions stated in such a way as to make them look bold.
This is the dumbest sales prediction I have heard in some time, the projections which this console is getting are insane considering the sales at the moment are very good, but not groundbreaking.
I just feel upset that I went into healthcare and have to do my job to a good standard, when the financial sector get paid as well if not better, to come up with shit like this!
80 million if Switch gets lucky as fuck, book it.
What market research have you done that leads you to the conclusion that these analysts are full of shit to the point that it's a bummer they're getting paid? Are you basing your projection on this market analysis?
Why would a prediction like this make a human mad?
This is the dumbest sales prediction I have heard in some time, the projections which this console is getting are insane considering the sales at the moment are very good, but not groundbreaking.
I just feel upset that I went into healthcare and have to do my job to a good standard, when the financial sector get paid as well if not better, to come up with shit like this!
80 million if Switch gets lucky as fuck, book it.
Switch to sell 81 million confirmed!
"Still", like you waited an eternity. This thing is out for 6 months and people act like a pricedrop or "refresh" is right around the corner for no reason.
It DOES have good third party support....I can do this all day.
But seriously, that's obvious goalpost moving and not even a good one. They have an exclusive Ubisoft game, an upcoming exclusive Squarenix game, several multi platform cross play games, a few multi platform games designed specifically to run on their hardware. It's probably never going to match the third party support of Sony or Microsoft, but it's already a great start and denying it is just covering your eyes and wishing it wasn't so.
I'm pretty sure they wouldn't be able to slot the manufacturing in to produce that many, even if they wanted to. Too much competition for hardware manufacturing slots with these third parties. I'm just talking out my ass though since I have no idea what the capacity for those businesses like Foxconn are. Also, I just don't believe it will come anywhere near that. If it gets to within 40 million of that number, I will be shocked. I bought one but not seeing the same hype I saw with Wii with non-gamers. There is some hype there, but not Wii Sports level hype to bring grandma in. Hell, the VFW near me still has it's Wii in the bar. They'll never have a Switch.
Plus the fact that it cannot replace a tablet for some of the audience. Missing basic stuff like Netflix.
Plus the fact that it cannot replace a tablet for some of the audience. Missing basic stuff like Netflix.
The only price drop we will get is holiday 2018, and even then it will be $300 with a free game.
Digital game to boot. I wish people who want to wait for that a lot of fun. I'll be playing Odyssey next month instead.
Why would noone buy a 720p handheld in the next few years? Are you saying the thing will stop selling next year because it's 720p in portable mode? Maybe look at a Switch screen yourself before making a claim like that.
Skittzo0413
Member
Ehem... https://gonintendo.com/stories/290524-rumor-netflix-customer-service-rep-says-netflix-is-locked-and
Reggie also explicitly said Netflix and Hulu and the like will come, it's just a matter of when.
Also I'm not sure how much of the Wii audience was actually part of the blue ocean, like grandmas and soccer moms. The console had a huge attach rate of 9 games sold per console, which is among the highest there is, so the amount of people just buying it for Wii Sports and literally nothing else must have been a rather small percentage.
define "no one" please
thankfully the average consumer has no idea what those numbers mean
TheMagician
Member
Wonder how long until a PS4 Pro can fit into a Switch sized unit for whenever Nintendo thinks about the next generation years from now.
Battery tech will need to improve...
Battery tech will need to improve...
It probably could fit in right now. for 2000 bucks and 20 minutes of battery life.
hanspampel
Banned
Probably in around 5 years, but with a much better CPU and more memory.
HighResTomato
Member
What I meant is that despite its amazing reception I'm still going to wait.
Seeing EA and 2K support this warrants a buy, just hoping for improved battery life in a revision. Nintendo is doing a lot of great things, third party support and cross-platform play are big.
2nd gen Switch will be a gem.
FairFriend
Member
Personally I've been very impressed with the Switch, even if I don't own one. The current lineup is amazing and already filled with many great first party titles (though admittedly they may not be as interesting to someone who owns or has owned a Wii U), and with the recent Bethesda announcement my general impression is that third parties are warming up to the Switch as well. Plus, smaller Japanese games, which used to be the bread and butter of the Vita lineup, are starting to appear on Switch too (or on Switch only).
There's no reason not to be optimistic about the Switch and I'm confident it'll be a success as big as PS4 (if not bigger). Personally there are a few things I'm not fond on which for the time being prevent me from buying one, like the lack of storage, the need for an external app to use basic online features, and so on, but it is definitely a very tempting proposition.
There's no reason not to be optimistic about the Switch and I'm confident it'll be a success as big as PS4 (if not bigger). Personally there are a few things I'm not fond on which for the time being prevent me from buying one, like the lack of storage, the need for an external app to use basic online features, and so on, but it is definitely a very tempting proposition.
clevbrowns94
Member
That's really bullish. 130 by the end of its lifetime would even be bullish. I think 70-100 million lifetime is the correct range. 70 million is what the 3DS sold, and I think it can do at least those numbers. 100 million is what Wii and PSX sold, and that would make a good ceiling. What we see is that several consoles and handhelds fit in the 70 to 100 million range, with the GBA, PSP, and 3DS for handhelds, and the PSX, PS3, Wii, 360, and PS4 for consoles all in the range. Anything above 100 million is extremely hard to achieve. The Game Boy sold 118 million, but that includes the GB Color sales, and the system shockingly was around for over a decade before the GBA came out. And the PS2 and DS came in at 150 million each, but many would consider those the GOAT handheld and console, and those numbers will likely never be topped. The PS4 looks to top out at 100 million and maybe it could do GB numbers depending on when it's replaced, so even it won't come close to 130 million despite being a sales monster. I mean, Pokémon and other titles are going to be huge, but I doubt that huge.
Could you imagine a 240p handheld in 2017? Now that sounds freaking absurd.
they are referring to tech specs, ps4 pro level gpu, cpu (hopefully better) and ssd will 100% be in Switch form factor in some years
I think there's multiple reasons specifically Nintendo's history with their platforms and the software droughts that have made up every single one of them, also the lack of meaningfully third party support. It might have all that but again time and time again they have proven that they run into those issues. So well I think it will sell as well if not better than the 3DS. I don't think there's a chance it will beat the PS4 in sales when everything is said and done. I would like to be wrong I just don't see it and I own a switch.
I think there's a very low chance of that overall.
Skittzo0413
Member
Software droughts tended to happen because Nintendo had to shift support from their console to their handheld, or vice versa. The last years of the Wii were barren because they were developing 3DS games. The first year of the Wii U was barren because they had to double down on 3DS support to save the platform.
This is no longer an issue going forward. I seriously don't expect we'll see any 6+ month long droughts of meaningful titles again.
As for meaningful third party support, that certainly won't change overnight but if Bethesda's titles manage to actually sell well (DOOM and Skyrim at lest should) then you can bet your ass that other third parties will take notice, and seriously consider giving the Switch similar support.
In some years?
We are ~an order of magnitude away on gpu and bandwidth.
At the same time we are hitting bigger and bigger shrinking walls.
We won't see a Switch on PS4 Pro levels in "some years".
Honestly, its not that bad currently. Even when I was playing alot of zelda on it, I only actually ran out of power when out like once or twice (and since bought a power bank that I never use)
The typical use cases for portable (short bursts here and there throughout the day) mean your rarely pushed on battery
Nvidia should be able to pull it off on 7nm with 1024 shaders @ 1.536ghz (3.1tflops) docked and 768mhz undocked (1.6tflops undocked) Nvidia's architecture after volta should beat out PS4 pro's architecture enough to make up the difference, and while technically we could see it as early as 7nm becomes available in ~2020, I'd suspect it would come 2022, with a ~ps4 volta powered Switch coming holiday 2019.
I also suspect that Nintendo will unlock the docked clock speed on the current Switch when undocked. Since the Switch uses the internal fan to cool the device, the only sacrifice is battery life, but when you have a revision on the market and want to increase your performance base level, doing this would give a much easier minimum spec for your platform in ~2020.
Considering how GTA5 continues to top charts, Rockstar is sitting on a huge rerelease for the Switch, that shouldn't take very long to port given minimum specs on PC and that it was a last gen game. (I'd want crossplay with PC to double dip, but man I'd double dip hard for that one)
We absolutely will. AMD might not ever be capable of it, and x86 might hinder it from ever happened for that architecture, but ARM and Nvidia should be there on 7nm without issue. The real problem is anything beyond that in a tablet form factor
Considering the dev relations and coming from WiiU Nintendo did well in regards to wester support. I think for next year it will be important to get GTAV and any kind of COD on the system. Add in EA bringing Madden to the system and 2K improving the quality of their current games like NBA2K (60fps alone would be a big jump).
When you can sell customers on getting a portable device/console that has games like Animal Crossing/Smash Bros. in addition to the yearly sport titles and evergreens like Skyrim an GTA V. That's quite the appealing package. Next year could be rad.
When you can sell customers on getting a portable device/console that has games like Animal Crossing/Smash Bros. in addition to the yearly sport titles and evergreens like Skyrim an GTA V. That's quite the appealing package. Next year could be rad.
I remember people saying that no one would but a 240p handheld shortly after the 3DS launched... Welp 6 years later here we are.
Ah my apologies then. I just don't see how they could increase the battery life. Did you see the one that's already in the Switch? Also I never ran out of battery while on the go. Either I only was on the road for an hour or so or I was in a train with a charger. It's really not that bad.
Skittzo0413
Member
This might explain why the Credit Suisse analyst was so bullish: https://www.wsj.com/articles/nintendo-deal-with-tencent-paves-way-for-china-push-1505825294
A lot of analysts and investors seem to be seeing the Tencent deal for Arena of Valor/Honor of Kings as a prelude to Nintendo beginning to focus heavily on selling Switches in China.
If they can have even a moderate presence in China then 130M by 2022 is probably very doable.
EDIT: This might be worth a new thread actually but I'm about to eat lunch so someone else can do it if they want.
A lot of analysts and investors seem to be seeing the Tencent deal for Arena of Valor/Honor of Kings as a prelude to Nintendo beginning to focus heavily on selling Switches in China.
If they can have even a moderate presence in China then 130M by 2022 is probably very doable.
EDIT: This might be worth a new thread actually but I'm about to eat lunch so someone else can do it if they want.
A die-shrunk revision would increase efficiency and thus improve battery drain. I'm not sure if Nintendo would do that without a major revision (ie: new model) though, and something like that would be at least a year away.
thestopsign
Member
Wow I am pretty surprised no one has tried to take a closer look on how this could be a reasonable prediction. Everyone is citing potential 1st Party games, price drops, and revisions. These measures will certainly help the Switch maintain a steady trajectory, but there are factors that could seriously elevate the system.
1. One of the reasons Sony has been so successful even through its missteps in the PS3 era is due to a more robust world wide market to sell to than either Nintendo or Microsoft. The article hints at the Tencent MOBA revealed in the last direct as a big deal and it is. If Nintendo can step past their normal bounds and break into a gaming market primed to explode like China or even Brazil or India with the Switch it would be tremendous. I'm interested to see if more games geared towards the Chinese market start to pop up or if Nintendo plans to expand distribution in these growth economies.
2. The casual audience is still out there! It is true many have moved on from gaming since the DS and Wii era, but that doesn't mean the Switch can't attract some of that same audience back. Nintendo has been very core focused to start out the Switch, with a bit of eSports pandering on the side. That could change though! I would be surprised if they didn't try something along the lines of a "Switch Sports" title with out of the box 2-player support at the very least. The social aspect of the console is big and can be driving factor if they get more games that take advantage of it.
3. The other big thing I think is going to be an eventual GTA5 port along with stronger 3rd Party support. My gut feeling is that the cold, abused, distrustful (of Nintendo systems) hearts of 3rd Party publishers will start to thaw out over the next year as more success stories come out and the Switch proves to be viable for even non-Nintendo published games. Having a portable option for GTA, Madden, FIFA, COD, Elder Scrolls, Minecraft, and more with multiplayer out of the box and flexibility on how to play will be a big draw. I don't know this for certain, but at the very least it should get every indie release for the foreseeable future.
4. The only other thing that I think could really help them out is unlikely, but who knows. An actual, logical, Virtual Console. Don't trickle out the same releases for the first 6 months have a good majority out at the start, have a viable upgrade path from previous systems, price reasonably, and include GameCube games. The other option would be to make it a Netflix-esque service for access to a large catalog of games.
I think if a combination of all those things happen, to varying degrees, in addition to the expected strong 1st Party support, revisions, and price drops, then Nintendo could get in that range.
1. One of the reasons Sony has been so successful even through its missteps in the PS3 era is due to a more robust world wide market to sell to than either Nintendo or Microsoft. The article hints at the Tencent MOBA revealed in the last direct as a big deal and it is. If Nintendo can step past their normal bounds and break into a gaming market primed to explode like China or even Brazil or India with the Switch it would be tremendous. I'm interested to see if more games geared towards the Chinese market start to pop up or if Nintendo plans to expand distribution in these growth economies.
2. The casual audience is still out there! It is true many have moved on from gaming since the DS and Wii era, but that doesn't mean the Switch can't attract some of that same audience back. Nintendo has been very core focused to start out the Switch, with a bit of eSports pandering on the side. That could change though! I would be surprised if they didn't try something along the lines of a "Switch Sports" title with out of the box 2-player support at the very least. The social aspect of the console is big and can be driving factor if they get more games that take advantage of it.
3. The other big thing I think is going to be an eventual GTA5 port along with stronger 3rd Party support. My gut feeling is that the cold, abused, distrustful (of Nintendo systems) hearts of 3rd Party publishers will start to thaw out over the next year as more success stories come out and the Switch proves to be viable for even non-Nintendo published games. Having a portable option for GTA, Madden, FIFA, COD, Elder Scrolls, Minecraft, and more with multiplayer out of the box and flexibility on how to play will be a big draw. I don't know this for certain, but at the very least it should get every indie release for the foreseeable future.
4. The only other thing that I think could really help them out is unlikely, but who knows. An actual, logical, Virtual Console. Don't trickle out the same releases for the first 6 months have a good majority out at the start, have a viable upgrade path from previous systems, price reasonably, and include GameCube games. The other option would be to make it a Netflix-esque service for access to a large catalog of games.
I think if a combination of all those things happen, to varying degrees, in addition to the expected strong 1st Party support, revisions, and price drops, then Nintendo could get in that range.
MisterHero
Super Member
That better mean Switch stays the same while it gets some sort of Next gen, special sauce dock upgrade
Maybe when Tencent buys Capcom we can get Disney Afternoon Collection and Okami HD on Switch.
BanjoLayleeYookaKazooie
Banned
I can't wait for the general audience that buys Mario, Pokémon, FIFA, Splatoon, Zelda and the like to get savvy and be critical of a £280/$300 720p screen tablet.
Oh wait yes I can because it will never happen.
nah, the future for Nintendo is doubling down on their handheld strength and the versatile nature of mobile tech & tablets
the dock will remain powerless
D.Lo
Member
At least as soon as the Switch sells 14 million the 'Nintendo consoles have been on a consistent decline, the Wii was an outlier' meme will be dead, since it will then be the second Nintendo console that has outsold its predecessor.
It's also going to be very interesting where Sony and MS go in the next 2-3 years, because that could affect the Switch train. I really thought the Scorpio would have been a backward compatible full new generation for Microsoft, allowing them to do a hard reset on their weak performance this generation by jumpstarting the next one. Instead it looks like they're going for more of a soft re-launch with it, ala Kinect except with power instead of waggle.
As a result, Sony seem like they can ride the PS4 quite a while too, so maybe we'll get another prolonged generation?
If that's the case, the Switch has another 3 years at least before it has new consoles to contend with.
It's also going to be very interesting where Sony and MS go in the next 2-3 years, because that could affect the Switch train. I really thought the Scorpio would have been a backward compatible full new generation for Microsoft, allowing them to do a hard reset on their weak performance this generation by jumpstarting the next one. Instead it looks like they're going for more of a soft re-launch with it, ala Kinect except with power instead of waggle.
As a result, Sony seem like they can ride the PS4 quite a while too, so maybe we'll get another prolonged generation?
If that's the case, the Switch has another 3 years at least before it has new consoles to contend with.
Great post, these are definitely some potential areas of success that can combine to create something massive.
I think point no. 4 is an interesting one: at first glance VC would seem to appeal to the Nintendo hardcore, a demographic that more than likely doesn't even need VC to be convinced to buy the system, but alternatively it could be marketed to lapsed Nintendo gamers as well. I see this in the following way: the NES classic and SNES classic have proven that there is a large market, both Nintendo faithful and nostalgic former gamers, who want to play these old games from their childhood and college years. I think a good marketing campaign aimed at exactly that nostalgic feeling could convince some of the lapsed audience to go get a Switch. They could market the VC in packages similar to the NES and SNES offerings: 20 or so games that were important at the respective times. Along with that, they can market the next iterations of some of these old games (Zelda, Super Mario, Mario Kart, etc.) and combine the two (VC and new releases) to create a product that appeals to this lapsed Nintendo gamer enough to greenlight a (by that time) maybe $200-$250 Switch purchase. Bundling a (smaller, maybe 5 titles or so) VC package with a console could further entice these gamers to jump in.
I don't know, I'm not a marketing expert or anything, but in my eyes this seems like an interesting sales opportunity for Nintendo that doesn't get a lot of discussion. What do you guys think?
thestopsign
Member
If they don't do a Netflix style service I hope they do have packaged deals that bundle together games for a discount. I've always thought that the Virtual Console was kind of bungled by never adopting more aggressive means of packaging with newly released titles. Why not give a credit away with every new title you register to your account to get an NES game or maybe you can use 2 credits to get an SNES game. It can be easily implemented in as a rewards system to encourage a more active user base.
There are a lot of ways they could approach a Virtual Console really.
Switch is not even X1 level now 3 and half years after the start of the generation but they are going to squeeze a PS4 pro in that form factor in a few more years?