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Prediction: Will Breath of the Wild break 10million WW?

V

vern

Member
GSG Flash said:
I don't see it topping TP, let alone reaching 10 million.

I don't think the Switch will be another Wii for Nintendo. My prediction is that after the initial launch craze, the sales of the Switch will start to level out.
Click to expand...

Bold prediction there. I also predict sales will slow in the future. For every product ever. You are the Joe Morgan of video game analytics.


I predict Zelda will sell well for the lifetime of the system but its attach rate will diminish over time. I feel that if the system sells a lot then it has a high likelihood of breaking 10 million. If Switch sales plummet due to a PS4 Probile and Xbone ScorpiGo then I expect sales of Zelda to cool considerably, unless ported to the Magnavox Odyssey. If they can bundle Mario Odyseey with the magnavox then I anticipate the brand synergy will be enough to sustain Zelda's sales well into the 31st century.
 
K

kswiston

Member
tsundoku said:
Trivially if enough consoles sell. But we'll never know about it because it'll do it with a majority of digital sales over lifetime and digital sales from Wii U which we also don't know.

Nintendo lets their big franchises sit on latest installment for 3-5 years so it will have plenty of time to have a long tail instead of assassin's creed of dutying it up with halved sales yearly
Click to expand...


Nintendo keeps a running list of their best selling software for each of their systems. If Breath of the Wild is in any position to hit 10M, we will know.
 
W

WhiteRabbitEXE

Member
killatopak said:
Lol at you as well for ignoring the rest of the post. Sone people here can't take anything negative. Zzz
Click to expand...

It's not me being "unable to take anything negative". I just literally, honest to God, don't even understand what the remark about the console's current sales numbers even means, and it's not the first time it's been used to support an argument in this thread.
 
J

jnWake

Member
I doubt it. Most Nintendo games don't reach 10 million and no Zelda has done that in a single platform (Wii U barely counts).

However, BotW is kinda the face of the Switch and probably will be until Mario Odyssey launches so there's a small chance it does or, at least, gets very close.
 
O

Oreoleo

Member
I won't put any hard numbers on it, but I think it has a really damn good shot at being the best selling single-SKU in the franchise (ie, I think it could beat OoT's 7.6m on N64).
 
killatopak

killatopak

Member
WhiteRabbitEXE said:
It's not me being "unable to take anything negative". I just literally, honest to God, don't even understand what the remark about the console's current sales numbers even means, and it's not the first time it's been used to support an argument in this thread.
Click to expand...

Because there are more games than Zelda on the console in the future. Fast forward to december and it's not just Zelda you're choosing from. There's xenoblade, mario, splatoon etc.
 
P

Platy

Member
Can't see it having the legs of a smash or mario kart =/

But will be top 5 or even top 3 best selling zeldas easily
 
S

ShadowFox08

Member
_Clash_ said:
Breath of the Wild is the most important game in Nintendo's history, being the flagship of the Switch launch. Zelda as a series has never broken single SKU 10 million mark, let's look at past Zelda sales:



1. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time (N64/3DS) - 11.42 million copies (7.6 million for the N64 version, 3.82 million for the 3DS version)
2. The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Wii/GCN) - 8.69 million copies (7.26 million for the Wii version, 1.43 million for the GC version)
3.The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past (SNES/GBA) - 7.47 million copies (4.61 million for SNES version, 2.86 million for the GBA version)
4. The Legend of Zelda (NES) - 6.51 million copies* (NES sales)
5. The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (GB/GBC) - 6.05 million copies (3.83 million for Game Boy version,2.22 million for DX version)
6.The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker (GCN/Wii U) - 6.05 million copies (4.43 million for the GCN version, 1.62 million for Wii U version)
7.Link's Crossbow Training (Wii)** - 5.79 million copies (Wii sales)
8. The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask (N64/3DS) - 5.39 million copies (3.36 million for N64 version, 2.03 million for 3DS version)
9. The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (DS) - 4.76 million copies (DS Sales)
10. Zelda II: The Adventure of Link (NES) - 4.38 million copies*** (NES sales)
11. The Legend of Zelda: Oracle of Ages/Oracle of Seasons (GBC) - 3.99 million (GBC Sales)
12. The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword (Wii) - 3.67 million copies (Wii Sales)
13. The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks (DS) - 2.96 million copies (Ds Sales)
14. The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds (3DS) - 2.9 million copies (3DS Sales)
15.The Legend of Zelda: The Minish Cap (GBA) - 1.76 million copies (GBA Sales)
16. Hyrule Warriors (Wii U) - 1 million copies shipped (Wii U Sales)

Ref and shout out to mrmickfan for details posted here



What do you think Breath of the Wild will sell lifetime? Is it set to be a gaming phenomenon?
Click to expand...

Where's TP HD sales figures?
 
C

Cuburt

Member
I'll say yes based on using TP as a benchmark.

Not only is it the game that has the most in common with BotW, it's sales (at least from what I saw at launch) seem to be comparable.

If this was any other Zelda game, it would be reasonable to merely rank among the best selling titles, but given that it has successfully reinvented what it means to be a Zelda game and seems to have transcended interest beyond the Zelda fanbase, I don't see why it can't be a breakout hit for the series. It's the must-own title for the Switch, and I can see that as still being true even when people get a system a year or two from now. In that sense, I think the game's overall success being tied greatly to the success of the console. Not that it will end up having a Mario Kart level of attach rates, but I think it can at least do Animal Crossing numbers.
 
W

WhiteRabbitEXE

Member
killatopak said:
Because there are more games than Zelda on the console in the future. Fast forward to december and it's not just Zelda you're choosing from. There's xenoblade, mario, splatoon etc.
Click to expand...

That doesn't suddenly mean interest in the game is going to die though? I'm not following the logic train here. Like, literally every game ever made had more games released after it, and yet we still have games that sell extremely well. Not being the last game ever made doesn't prevent a game from selling big numbers. If you're arguing being a launch title somehow makes it distinct in that regard, then you have games like Mario 64 to look at.

Your argument only makes sense if you're assuming the only reason this game is selling is because people are buying Switches and have no other choices, so they're only buying Zelda because they have to. Which is a pretty absurd argument to make.
 
C

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
iidesuyo said:
Let's say 100m Switch will be sold, do you really think Zelda will have such a lasting power?
Click to expand...

If they can sell that much console i think 10m would be likely. There wont be another massive mainline Zelda for the next year and i assume people who are picking up Switches in the next couple years will get this game down the line.

It feels like a must-have - even if you arent a Zelda fan...thats the appeal previous games were lacking.
 
W

WhiteRabbitEXE

Member
ShadowFox08 said:
Where's TP HD sales figures?
Click to expand...

That list is outdated in general, but also TP HD hadn't hit 1 million sales as of last March (every year Nintendo updates their list of million+ sellers with figures current as of March 31 of that year) so we don't have a super clear idea of where it wound up. Probably some NPD data out there you could use to piece it together though. If it has hit 1 million in the year since, we'll soon know.
 
S

SmartWaffles

Member
It is hard to imagine anyone picking up a Switch not getting BotW, and Switch seems to be well on its way to 10+M so yes, easily. Top tier Nintendo first party games always sell extremely well, far more than other platform exclusives. Just think about Mario Kart 8 and Splatoon's 4-5M sales number on Wii U.
 
killatopak

killatopak

Member
WhiteRabbitEXE said:
That doesn't suddenly mean interest in the game is going to die though? I'm not following the logic train here. Like, literally every game ever made had more games released after it, and yet we still have games that sell extremely well. Not being the last game ever made doesn't prevent a game from selling big numbers. If you're arguing being a launch title somehow makes it distinct in that regard, then you have games like Mario 64 to look at.

Your argument only makes sense if you're assuming the only reason this game is selling is because people are buying Switches and have no other choices, so they're only buying Zelda because they have to. Which is a pretty absurd argument to make.
Click to expand...

No, they're only buying switches because of zelda. I myself did that and now mine's collecting dust until stardew valley releases. The ones who bought the system just for zelda have already bought it now. The people buying the system in the future has more reasons to buy it than just Zelda. Which comes back to the point I was trying to make in my first comment which is it depends if the games in the future are better or good enough to skip Zelda for.

All games being released have games being released after it, you're right but does all of them even have larger sales than the period it released? More often game sell more in the few months after release than the period after it. Unless Zelda gets bundled with the switch in the future, there's zero percent chance of it happening and you can quote me on that.
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
killatopak said:
No, they're only buying switches because of zelda. I myself did that and now mine's collecting dust until stardew valley releases. The ones who bought the system just for zelda have already bought it now.
Click to expand...

That's my thinking. Hype for BotW drove Switch sales and since a majority of the fan base that was really excited for the game has already bought and played it, the sales numbers will start to drop off. I could see BotW doing 5m, with 8m being the absolute ceiling.
 
1

120v

Member
not really convinced the attach rate will remain as the years wane on . sure, game is hype now and will be this holiday but later on i think it'll wind down below 10 million

then again i could see it being nintendo's GTAV where it always manages to "chart" somehow
 
W

WhiteRabbitEXE

Member
killatopak said:
No, they're only buying switches because of zelda. I myself did that and now mine's collecting dust until stardew valley releases. The ones who bought the system just for zelda have already bought it now. The people buying the system in the future has more reasons to buy it than just Zelda. Which comes back to the point I was trying to make in my first comment which is it depends if the games in the future are better or good enough to skip Zelda for.

All games being released have games being released after it, you're right but does all of them even have larger sales than the period it released? More often game sell more in the few months after release than the period after it. Unless Zelda gets bundled with the switch in the future, there's zero percent chance of it happening and you can quote me on that.
Click to expand...

Except that 1) sales of the game are temporarily capped due to the console's stock issues - not everyone that will buy a Switch for Zelda has bought one yet because no one can buy one right now, and that's largely been a constant since launch, a couple small shipments aside. And 2) you're still assuming that sales of the game will dry up significantly because more options will be available. But I don't think it's a reasonable assumption to say people will pass on Zelda because Mario is now an option or something. Zelda will still get sales. Maybe not as many per month, but this is a landmark game that will have a long tail. Especially since it's actually the only major new, single-player game even announced for the console up through the end of the year anyway. While there will be more options eventually, Zelda will have less to compete with than most major games ever do, so it will be less impacted than said games (which again, still can manage to sell extremely high numbers). And I doubt the Switch is suddenly going to solve Nintendo's ever worsening 3rd party woes. It's going to be a long time before Zelda's sales gets completely drowned by the rest of the library.

You're making repeated assumptions that don't really make much sense.

I mean, I literally already pointed out a significant counterpoint to your entire argument with Mario 64.
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
120v said:
then again i could see it being nintendo's GTAV where it always manages to "chart" somehow
Click to expand...

Highly doubt that. Zelda doesn't quite have the reach that Grand Theft Auto does these days. On top of that, GTAV was a universally acclaimed game (they do share that) that released on 5 platforms, 3 of which had quite massive install bases. BotW launched with the Switch (which comparatively has a tiny install base) and the Wii U (which has a pretty small install base). Not to mention GTAV has the benefit of GTA:O which probably doesn't hurt its longevity. I mean, GTAV sold 11.21m copies in its first day. No way in hell Zelda: BotW even scratches that. I mean, come on;

Wikipedia said:
As of February 2017, the game has shipped over 75 million copies across all platforms.
Click to expand...
 
killatopak

killatopak

Member
WhiteRabbitEXE said:
Except that 1) sales of the game are temporarily capped due to the console's stock issues - not everyone that will buy a Switch for Zelda has bought one yet because no one can buy one right now, and that's largely been a constant since launch, a couple small shipments aside. And 2) you're still assuming that sales of the game will dry up significantly because more options will be available. But I don't think it's a reasonable assumption to say people will pass on Zelda because Mario is now an option or something. Zelda will still get sales. Maybe not as many per month, but this is a landmark game that will have a long tail. Especially since it's actually the only major new, single-player game even announced for the console up through the end of the year anyway. While there will be more options eventually, Zelda will have less to compete with than most major games ever do, so it will be less impacted than said games (which again, still can manage to sell extremely high numbers). And I doubt the Switch is suddenly going to solve Nintendo's ever worsening 3rd party woes. It's going to be a long time before Zelda's sales gets completely drowned by the rest of the library.

You're making repeated assumptions that don't really make much sense.

I mean, I literally already pointed out a significant counterpoint to your entire argument with Mario 64.
Click to expand...

We just have to agree to disagree. Time will tell. I'd love to be wrong because I love Zelda as much as the next guy but imo it has a pretty small chance of happening.

Mario is a better household name than Zelda. Replace Zelda with Pokemon and I would wholeheartedly agree to all your points.
 
W

WhiteRabbitEXE

Member
killatopak said:
We just have to agree to disagree. Time will tell. I'd love to be wrong because I love Zelda as much as the next guy but imo it has a pretty small chance of happening.

Mario is a better household name than Zelda. Replace Zelda with Pokemon and I would wholeheartedly agree to all your points.
Click to expand...
I mean, my initial post in this topic, my response to the OP, was pretty much literally "eh... maaaaaaaaaaaybe?"

I don't think the odds of 10 million for Zelda are overwhelmingly good and even 8-9 would be crazy impressive. What I took issue with was your actual reasoning. I would be pleasantly surprised if Zelda got anywhere near 8-digit sales.
 
J

jonno394

Member
Nope i can't see it. Will be interesting to see the march figures when Nintendo announce their financials towards end of this month.

I think it'll do about 6m lifetime.
 
1

120v

Member
neurosisxeno said:
Highly doubt that. Zelda doesn't quite have the reach that Grand Theft Auto does these days. On top of that, GTAV was a universally acclaimed game (they do share that) that released on 5 platforms, 3 of which had quite massive install bases. BotW launched with the Switch (which comparatively has a tiny install base) and the Wii U (which has a pretty small install base). Not to mention GTAV has the benefit of GTA:O which probably doesn't hurt its longevity. I mean, GTAV sold 11.21m copies in its first day. No way in hell Zelda: BotW even scratches that. I mean, come on;
Click to expand...

well i don't mean literally. of course GTA is a behemoth

what i mean is i can see BotW having a the same "zombie effect" where the game is years old and you'd think everybody had bought it already yet it's still moving a fair amount of copies. maybe a better parallel would be other 1st party nintendo games people never seemed to quit buying, like the first few New Super Mario games
 
D

D3VI0US

Member
I think it will probably sell around 5 million this year alone. Without any numbers yet we know it has a very high attach rate with the Switch and there are 2 million-ish Switches out there. Combine that with almost 14 million Wii U's where they'll probably get a healthy number of sales as well. Based on that alone it's probably already at around 2 million sold, 1.5 million on Switch, 500k on Wii U, something like that. It will also continue to sell very well throughout the year and especially this holiday season.

It will also have a crazy long tail because the game is well reviewed and in strong early contention for GOTY. Eventually there will be hardware bundles/special edition consoles, a cheaper Players Choice version, maybe even a Deluxe/Complete edition with DLC bundled in.

My only hesitation is that I think Switch will sell 3DS numbers over it's lifetime and looking at Link Between Worlds. WTF man, how can those numbers be right? That's a crime.
 
A

Alchemy

Member
WhiteRabbitEXE said:
Why does it matter that the Switch isn't at 10 million at this very moment? This is the second or third remark like this in the thread. Like, what does that even mean? No one who buys a Switch in the future will buy Zelda? The last Switch ever has been sold? Wii Sports will never sell 10 million because the Wii sold 3 million in 1.5 months? What? lol
Click to expand...

Games usually sell more at launch than any other period, and Wii Sports was a pack in so the situation isn't at all comparable. Even if Nintendo software has a longer tail than usual (and they do!) then we would have seen better numbers from Twilight Princess.
 
A

acm2000

Member
Depends if anyone actually buys the switch outside of the Nintendo hardcore

I've not heard anything in my group of friends, not even the one Nintendo hardcore i know (he got Zelda on wiiu)
 
D.Lo

D.Lo

Member
Alchemy said:
Games usually sell more at launch than any other period, and Wii Sports was a pack in so the situation isn't at all comparable. Even if Nintendo software has a longer tail than usual (and they do!) then we would have seen better numbers from Twilight Princess.
Click to expand...
Well, BoTW is in positioning very similar to TP, in that it launched with the new console after having been designed for the last one. But it has several more things in its favour, and a possible one against.

First, there is no Wii Sports on Switch, Zelda is THE game on it. Secondly, BoTW is significantly better than on the older console, unlike TP which was performance wise identical, and in some ways the Gamecube TP was the better game in some people's opinion - whereas literally nobody can say BoTW is better on Wii U. The Switch has also launched outside of a holiday, so Zelda's first Christmas can give it a bump, when TP's launch was at Christmas.

The possible negative is that the Switch may not sell as much as the Wii, so may not have the userbase as quickly. But that's up in the air.
 
R

ricelord

Member
_Clash_ said:
Breath of the Wild is the most important game in Nintendo's history, being the flagship of the Switch launch. Zelda as a series has never broken single SKU 10 million mark, let's look at past Zelda sales:



1. The Legend of Zelda: Ocarina of Time (N64/3DS) - 11.42 million copies (7.6 million for the N64 version, 3.82 million for the 3DS version)
2. The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess (Wii/GCN) - 8.69 million copies (7.26 million for the Wii version, 1.43 million for the GC version)
3.The Legend of Zelda: A Link to the Past (SNES/GBA) - 7.47 million copies (4.61 million for SNES version, 2.86 million for the GBA version)
4. The Legend of Zelda (NES) - 6.51 million copies* (NES sales)
5. The Legend of Zelda: Link's Awakening (GB/GBC) - 6.05 million copies (3.83 million for Game Boy version,2.22 million for DX version)
6.The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker (GCN/Wii U) - 6.05 million copies (4.43 million for the GCN version, 1.62 million for Wii U version)
7.Link's Crossbow Training (Wii)** - 5.79 million copies (Wii sales)
8. The Legend of Zelda: Majora's Mask (N64/3DS) - 5.39 million copies (3.36 million for N64 version, 2.03 million for 3DS version)
9. The Legend of Zelda: Phantom Hourglass (DS) - 4.76 million copies (DS Sales)
10. Zelda II: The Adventure of Link (NES) - 4.38 million copies*** (NES sales)
11. The Legend of Zelda: Oracle of Ages/Oracle of Seasons (GBC) - 3.99 million (GBC Sales)
12. The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword (Wii) - 3.67 million copies (Wii Sales)
13. The Legend of Zelda: Spirit Tracks (DS) - 2.96 million copies (Ds Sales)
14. The Legend of Zelda: A Link Between Worlds (3DS) - 2.9 million copies (3DS Sales)
15.The Legend of Zelda: The Minish Cap (GBA) - 1.76 million copies (GBA Sales)
16. Hyrule Warriors (Wii U) - 1 million copies shipped (Wii U Sales)

Ref and shout out to mrmickfan for details posted here http://www.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=1140668



What do you think Breath of the Wild will sell lifetime? Is it set to be a gaming phenomenon?
Click to expand...


nope, i say between 5-8 million sold.
 
S

SciencePilot

Member
You provided pretty compelling evidence to suggest it won't.

I don't see any reason to expect it to do much better than Twilight Princess Wii. I'll predict < 7 million.
 
Z

Zedark

Member
That's a really high bar, OP. The only way OOT sold 10+ million was through a rerelease. Still, TP did nearly 9 million on two systems, and it had less focus on it during the launch, what with Wii Sports etc. Taking center stage. So, I think BOTW, due to being the game associatie with the Switch and due to its rave reviews, has a chance of selling 10+ million, but it will be a struggle, and will probably require bundling at some point.
SmartWaffles said:
It is hard to imagine anyone picking up a Switch not getting BotW, and Switch seems to be well on its way to 10+M so yes, easily. Top tier Nintendo first party games always sell extremely well, far more than other platform exclusives. Just think about Mario Kart 8 and Splatoon's 4-5M sales number on Wii U.
Click to expand...
That's only true for the start of the year, though. As the months pass, people will be jumping in for MK8D, Splatoon 2 and/or Super Mario Odyssey. Sure, a decent amount will also get Zelda, but the current attach rate will definitely not hold steady through out the year.
 
C

correojon

Member
10M is a crazy number. It´s released early in the console´s life with 100% attention for it, it has amazing word of mouth and reception, it seems to have become mainstream again and it will have new content to put it in the spotlight again later in the year...but 10M sounds like too much. But hell, yeah why not? I think BotW has much more mainstream appeal than any other Zelda before it.
 
S

Striek

Member
_Clash_ said:
Top 10 let's go
Click to expand...
Lol. I don't want to derail too much but you are the OP so sure.

SMB, SM64, NSMB, NSMB Wii, Tetris, Brain Training, Mario Kart DS, Animal Crossing DS, Wii Sports, Wii Fit, Pokemon (most generations) etc. etc. (edit: this isn't actually exhaustive or a top 10, its just some off the top of my head more important than BoTW).

There are so many games that were as or more genre-defining, or redefining, and which BoTW will assuredly sell less than, and attract fewer new customers to Nintendo. To think that BoTW sniffs at Wii Sports or Pokemon is just cray-cray. BoTW isn't even the most important Zelda.

And to be clear, pointing out absurd hyperbole isn't a knock against BoTW.
 
K

Kovacs

Member
Interficium said:
tumblr_inline_obddk5RIVy1qderj8_500.gif
Click to expand...

I wouldn't consider claiming it to be their most important release too much of an outlandish statement considering:

  • Nintendo are coming off the disastrous WII U run and desperately need a successful home console.
  • The 3DS has reached end of life and Nintendo need the revenue from the Switch to match/exceed that cash-cow.
  • BOTW is the only system seller currently available for this extremely important console release.
  • BOTW shows that despite the lower power, huge scale games are possible on the system acting as a statement to developers that they'd like to attract to the system.
  • It's also the first example that I can think of where Nintendo have really gone away with criticism and feedback ringing in their ears and come back with something that shows they listened - again another signpost that 'hey, things are different this time'.

Most importantly it's the only Nintendo title where the text speed is not so interminably slow that I want to stop myself with a pencil. If that's the only change that carries over to their other titles the new console will be worth it.

But seriously, the foundation and marker that this title lays down is huge. It says we are back with our A game and this time we're ready. Compare with the Wii U which launched with a Mario title that was the continuation of a DS game which said, hey heres the same old but a little bit shinier.

I hope it beats 10 million. I hope it exceeds that and becomes the biggest seller over the Switch's lifespan. Not just because it means the console has sold, but because it makes it incredibly difficult for Nintendo to back away from this new direction when they know the appetite is out there.
 
C

City 17

Member
BotW seems to be in a very special place, plus the marketing and appeal are on another level. So I'd say that it's doable.
 
F

FunkyDealer

Banned
I wonder how the list would look if you included Virtual Console.

I'd say 10 million is doable as a lifetime goal, but not certain. It'll be in this lists Top 3 for sure though. And I think the second DLC could help it gain extra traction this holiday season.
 
T

Tonyx

Member
Unlikely as it's connected to Switch sales. And by the time Switch reaches 10 millions unit sold there will probably be another Zelda game and Botw will see very little sales at that point.
 
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