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November 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 6th

D

donny2112

Member
ITT, predict for the NPD October 2016 retail period (October 30-November 26, 2016) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Tuesday, December 6th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: October 30-November 26, 2016 (4 weeks, October was 4 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Thursday, December 8th @ 4 p.m. EST (public thread with physical+digital posted 1 week later on December 15th ~6:30 p.m. EST)

Format:
Note: WIU will only be counted for unit results and cardinal order bonus. It is not included for point results directly.

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[XB1] 1200K       [XB1] 1.2 million
[XB1] 1,200,000   [XB1] 1.200.000
[XB1] 1200000     [XB1] - 1200000


Potential hardware impacting events in November:
Black Friday/Holiday Shopping
PS4 Pro released Nov. 10th @ $399 (17 days)
PS4/XB1 @ $250 + various bundles/variations for Black Friday (3 days)
n3DS @ $100 for Black Friday (3 days)


Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[3DS]
[PS4]
[WIU]
[XB1]

October's Results
Aquamarine said:
XB1 - 329K
PS4 - 235k
Click to expand...
3DS - ~123K (NPD Analyst Naji)
WIU - ?

October 2015 NPD thread
November 2015 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
[XB1] 1320K
[PS4] 1300K
[3DS] 500K
[WIU] 80k

PS4 Pro - 300K

Expecting this November to be down from last year but somewhat buoyed by improved 3DS performance. Last year saw the top 4 sell a combined 3,425,000 and I'm expecting 3.2m this year.
 
J

jjonez18

Member
[3DS] 1000K
[PS4] 1350K
[WIU] 200K
[XB1] 1250K

PS4 Pro 250k
Ash Ketchum -2.2m
Michael Bay of Videogames - 2m

This is Xbox's Murica now, boy.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
Edit: Actual estimate in after infoscout data.

[PS4] 1600K
[XB1] 1200K
[3DS] 900K
[WIU] 150K

Ps4 slim: 1.2m
Ps4 Pro: 400k

Old:
Will wait next week for predictions, as we should get some PR about BF, but expecting +/- 1.3m for XB1 and +/- 1.7m for PS4 "family"
((XB1 essentially flat thanks to 4k and low price, PS4slim down due to no sexy bundle and Pro, but 400k Pros to spice things up).
 
R

robo

Member
No cyber Monday included? Is this normal as from UK so not sure of the sales split between Friday and the Monday.


[3DS] 987K
[PS4] 1754K
[WIU] 187K
[XB1] 1560K
 
T

Tratorn

Member
This will be a tough one to predict. I expect XB1 to win the BF week, but if the Pro launch was good enough, Sony could still win NPD.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Yeah, already read that tweet. She just says "circumstances", and that she'll be back in January, so I don't know how much this is a forced absence by NPD. Still, I hope there's a way we can get hardware numbers (not even asking about several games, it will be near impossible). Hopefully the companies themselves will be so eager to rev-ahahahahha.

...At least, I'm sure Nintendo will share something due to Pokémon. Possibly even 3DS hardware sales (or, at minimum, some useless percentages for sales before and after Pokémon).
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Maximilian Kolbe said:
Dunno but PS4+Pro sold 2 million+ in BF week seems about right.
That said don't think have anything big to do with WD2 lol.
Click to expand...
Yeap the WD2 promotion was more of a marking move I guess :D but there is a PS4 WD2 bundle in promotion in Europe and of course it moved something.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
I won't be making predictions but I am expecting the PS4 to have sold the most units because of the additional Pro sales.

The only way it makes sense for X1 to have sold more is if it smashed PS4 on Black Friday and I don't think there is anything to indicate that. Even if Pro underperforms (whatever that may be), it will still provide at least 100K+ of extra sales in what will be a tight race.
 
N

Nightengale

Member
Won't predict numbers, but will put out a % and ratio prediction.

PS4 Pro : PS4 Slim ratio will be 30 : 70.

XB1S sales will be 20-25% more than PS4 Slim sales.
 
J

Jarod McChicken

Member
DriftingSpirit said:
I won't be making predictions but I am expecting the PS4 to have sold the most units because of the additional Pro sales.

The only way it makes sense for X1 to have sold more is if it smashed PS4 on Black Friday and I don't think there is anything to indicate that. Even if Pro underperforms (whatever that may be), it will still provide at least 100K+ of extra sales in what will be a tight race.
Click to expand...

Unlike you, I feel everything I read about Black Friday (retail musings here and there, Infoscout) leads to a significant advantage for Microsoft. I'm sure the initial sales of Pro were very good but the model vanished during BF week since it's all about the better price. And from there, we know every PS4 sales were focused on the Uncharted bundle. Like in October, the best selling hardware SKU may very well be the Uncharted bundle once again, but as a whole Microsoft's offering is way stronger with the combination of Gears of War, Battlefield and, the big bonus who will make the difference in my opinion : the Minecraft bundle.

Since I think Xbox One will be up year on year (that was the case between August and October), I'm going for a slight Xbox One victory for November. But more importantly, if SIEA does not step up the game in December (an Infinite Warfare bundle for both regular and Pro models would be the bare minimum) then the Xbox One could reduce some serious gap at Christmas, with the Minecraft bundle being king.

Not sure about what will happen early 2017 though. PS4 lineup looks so much better for my taste that if Xbox One happen to take the lead next year, I'll begin to wonder if the impact of things like 4K Blu-ray/BC was actually very much real. Starting mid-January we will also have to take the Switch into account.
 
D

DriftingSpirit

Member
Jarod McChicken said:
Unlike you, I feel everything I read about Black Friday (retail musings here and there, Infoscout) leads to a significant advantage for Microsoft. I'm sure the initial sales of Pro were very good but the model vanished during BF week since it's all about the better price. And from there, we know every PS4 sales were focused on the Uncharted bundle. Like in October, the best selling hardware SKU may very well be the Uncharted bundle once again, but as a whole Microsoft's offering is way stronger with the combination of Gears of War, Battlefield and, the big bonus who will make the difference in my opinion : the Minecraft bundle.

Since I think Xbox One will be up year on year (that was the case between August and October), I'm going for a slight Xbox One victory for November. But more importantly, if SIEA does not step up the game in December (an Infinite Warfare bundle for both regular and Pro models would be the bare minimum) then the Xbox One could reduce some serious gap at Christmas, with the Minecraft bundle being king.

Not sure about what will happen early 2017 though. PS4 lineup looks so much better for my taste that, if Xbox One happen to take the lead netxt year, I'll begin to wonder if the impact of things like 4K Blu-ray/BC was actually real. Starting January we will also have to take the Switch into account.
Click to expand...
Well, keep in mind that the Pro sales go from September through November. Even if sales slowed down in November because of Black Friday (which I agree with), that is still 2+ months of pre orders to take into account on top of the launch. As far as Black Friday itself, I haven't seen any info that would indicate a significant edge in either direction. Infoscout simply said PS4 did the best at Best Buy (as usual) while MS took Target (as usual). That headline implies more but there wasn't any info showing that.

Sony released the CoD bundle during December last year. I think the same will happen this year.
http://blog.us.playstation.com/2015...ty-black-ops-iii-standard-edition-ps4-bundle/

Yeah, some interesting things happening next year (Sony lineup, MS' momentum/Scorpio and Switch).
 
B

blakep267

Member
[PS4] 1000K
[WIU] 200K
[3DS] 600k
[Xb1] 1100K

Im gonna say 400k pros at most and 600k slims

My reasoning for the Xbox number is that from November 4-12 they had a free game promotion with the purchase of a console, so while not a ton would be sold, they would have a little movement in the beginning of the month, and I also think that the og stock finally gets depleted after being reduced to $199



Elandyll said:
Will wait next week for predictions, as we should get some PR about BF, but expecting +/- 1.3m for XB1 and +/- 1.7m for PS4 "family"
((XB1 essentially flat thanks to 4k and low price, PS4slim down due to no sexy bundle and Pro, but 400k Pros to spice things up).
Click to expand...
If your saying that you think 400k pros were sold, that means you expect 1.3 million slims to be sold, which matches the Xbox one s. I can't see that happening. Plus that means it would be up yoy over last year that had the Star Wars and cod bundles, and that the slim would almost match last years total alone
 
Unknown?

Unknown?

Member
blakep267 said:
If your saying that you think 400k pros were sold, that means you expect 1.3 million slims to be sold, which matches the Xbox one s. I can't see that happening. Plus that means it would be up yoy over last year that had the Star Wars and cod bundles, and that the slim would almost match last years total alone
Click to expand...
Those star wars and call of duty bundles were more expensive and not their Black Friday bundles. The Uncharted bundle last year was their cheap bundle and sold by far the most.

I think they will be up yoy due to better discounts. First it's simply cheaper this year and closer to impulse buy prices and second last year their only promotions were at $50 discount. There were no other offers on top whereas this year they have a $50 discount with many retailers offering gift cards and games on top.
 
B

blakep267

Member
NeoMetallix said:
Those star wars and call of duty bundles were more expensive and not their Black Friday bundles. The Uncharted bundle last year was their cheap bundle and sold by far the most.

I think they will be up yoy due to better discounts. First it's simply cheaper this year and closer to impulse buy prices and second last year their only promotions were at $50 discount. There were no other offers on top whereas this year they have a $50 discount with many retailers offering gift cards and games on top.
Click to expand...
true but the uncharted collection bundle didn't sell anywhere close to 1.3 million. Even though the Star Wars and COD bundles were more expensive they still sold a bunch during November.

The reason I think they will be down is that I don't think the Pro matches the total of the Battlefront and COd bundles. And the PS4 slim won't match the UC collection bundles from last year

Also like o said before, the slim isn't sell as well as the Xbox one S, so it isn't a big leap to assume that that would continue to be the case in November
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
blakep267 said:
[PS4] 1000K
[WIU] 200K
[3DS] 600k
[Xb1] 1100K

Im gonna say 400k pros at most and 600k slims

My reasoning for the Xbox number is that from November 4-12 they had a free game promotion with the purchase of a console, so while not a ton would be sold, they would have a little movement in the beginning of the month, and I also think that the og stock finally gets depleted after being reduced to $199




If your saying that you think 400k pros were sold, that means you expect 1.3 million slims to be sold, which matches the Xbox one s. I can't see that happening. Plus that means it would be up yoy over last year that had the Star Wars and cod bundles, and that the slim would almost match last years total alone
Click to expand...
Yes, I more or less expect a similar number of PS4S sold, but that would be down YoY for Ps4S type, as Sony did 1.53m last year.

Obliterator said:
I'm thinking Pro will land somewhere in the 250k-300k range
Click to expand...
Seems a bit conservative, when taken in account around 80k units in 2 weeks in Japan of all places, but possible.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
blakep267 said:
true but the uncharted collection bundle didn't sell anywhere close to 1.3 million. Even though the Star Wars and COD bundles were more expensive they still sold a bunch during November.

The reason I think they will be down is that I don't think the Pro matches the total of the Battlefront and COd bundles. And the PS4 slim won't match the UC collection bundles from last year

Also like o said before, the slim isn't sell as well as the Xbox one S, so it isn't a big leap to assume that that would continue to be the case in November
Click to expand...
892k UC bundles last year, no?

vs 283k COD
vs 375k SW

That means 60% of PS4 sales were UC bundle last year... most of course sold in BF.

It was close enough to 1.3m.

Sony did 1.54m last year and I expect them to be up yoy due Pro launch.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Ahh so FFXV will miss this NPD and have pretty much the whole month of December. Will be interesting.


I know the bulk of consoles have already been sold but I wish the cutoff wasn't yesterday. Today and tomorrow should see an uptick in Pro sales hell even XB1S sales thanks to pricematching targets Promotion.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
ethomaz said:
892k UC bundles last year, no?

vs 283k COD
vs 375k SW

That means 60% of PS4 sales were UC bundle last year... most of course sold in BF.

It was close enough to 1.3m.

Sony did 1.54m last year and I expect them to be up yoy due Pro launch.
Click to expand...

900k is not close to 1.3m at all, and Uncharted Bundle did less than 700k in November (Total November sales for Uncharted Collection was ~700k with bundles). Assuming Uncharted Collection did ~100k standalone, the bundle did ~600k. 375k Battlefront and 251k CoD bundles means that other sales were above 300k.

Uncharted bundle: ~600k
Battlefront bundles: 375k
Black Ops 3 bundle: 251k
Everything else: ~313k

In October 2015, Uncharted Collection did >300k with bundles and <165k without. That means the UC bundle did at the very least 135k. PS4 sold 275k in October 2015 so everything else totaled <139k.

Going into November, the increase for the UC bundle is at most ~344% in November assuming 135k to 600k. Everything else increased by at least ~125% assuming 139k to 313k.

The UC4 bundle did ~130k this October. That is less than the UC bundle last year. Assuming similar % increases for the UC4 bundle and everything else, that would be ~577k for the UC4 bundle and ~236k for legacy bundles, or 813k total. If we were to do a straight October 2015 to November 2015 increase (275k to 913k is 232%) and applied that to October 2016, then total sales in November would be 780k. 813k is a better number so we will stick to that.

Seeing that the argument for lowered PS4 sales in September and October is because of the Pro, I don't see a reason for why slim + legacy bundles would increase by an even bigger % than last years UC + legacy bundles. Then the only question would be, can Pro be enough for the PS4 to be flat YoY? In order to do that, it would need ~700k if the above numbers hold any water. I think the highest the Pro can do is 500k which is still a really high number, but that would mean assuming this year has similar performance to last year, the PS4 does ~1.3m.

In addition to what looks to be a mediocre month for software (Infinite Warfare launch disappointing, Watch Dogs 2 not doing well) compared to last year (Black Ops 3, Battlefront, Fallout 4) +1.5m looks difficult to hit this year.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
I remember talking with other Sales AGErs about how the marketing for PS4K was going to be really tricky to pull off and that they needed to knock it out of the park. I feel pretty confident in saying that they have fumbled hard on that. The messaging on Pro has been such that there is lots of confusion around the product, its capabilities and its features. Despite what I felt was a very clear presentation on the part of Sony its clear that it should have been more mindful of the general consumer base and not just the enthusiasts. Even the enthusiast crowd seemed to be underwhelmed by what was shown.

Contrast that with the buzzword filled marketing pitch video that MS gave for Scorpio and how that resonated despite having almost no actual substance and containing ridiculous things like "highest quality pixels" and a picture of an APU that simply said "4k" on it. MS' presentation sold an idea and let the consumer fill in the gaps with their own desires whereas Sony tried to sell individual features to the consumer and ended up confusing the vast majority of them in the process.

That confusion has led to a lot of frustration from the mass market consumer. Then when you also see their decision to forgo the inclusion of a UHD BluRay drive its easy to see why the system might be lagging out the gate. Whether or not you consume most of your content via streaming nowadays the UHD drive is basically an added perk/feature that makes consumers more confident in the value of their purchase and it will undoubtedly impact the desirability of the product at a consumer level especially the extremely budget/deal minded shoppers during the holiday season. Whether or not it is used the inclusion of the Drive is just one additional point of value that they can add to the list to increase the overall perceived value of the product in question.

I think this could very well be a big win for MS this month even with the additional Pro sales as I just don't see much demand from consumers for Pro at all at this point and the baffling decision to only provide a single choice of UC4 as the bundle for holiday shoppers through Black Friday. Now that said, I think the outlook for Pro will change next year as more and more games use Pro as a showcase for the software but as of now its just not a compelling choice for consumers especially budget minded November shoppers imo.
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
Obliterator said:
Going to be a fun month to watch as the Holidays always are. I predict both PS4 and Xbone are down YoY.
Click to expand...

This is the most likely outcome. 4th holidays are almost always down on 3rd holidays. You never know though, too early to read on BF results, which it all comes down to. YoY growth would be amazing. It could happen, but if it doesn't it would not be a surprise.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
ethomaz said:
Where you get that? I have 892k for UC in November 2015.
Click to expand...

I for the life of me can't find where ~700k came from. I know I saw it from somewhere since I had it down but can't find where. I do know that 892k is incorrect though. Didn't see that when searching back through old threads.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Welfare said:
I for the life of me can't find where ~700k came from. I know I saw it from somewhere since I had it down but can't find where. I do know that 892k is incorrect though. Didn't see that when searching back through old threads.
Click to expand...
I tried to search but failed too...
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Today UK data put me in a trouble place to predict my XB1 numbers for this month :(
I'm really having a hard time to decide if I go with a drop like UK or something more flat... last month I used to put low XB1 numbers and that is a warning.

I'm thinking in 1.2m for XB1 but that is not definitive yet... PS4 I made my mind with 1.6m days ago... I'm not liking this big gap too :(
 
Bitch Pudding

Bitch Pudding

Member
ethomaz said:
Today UK data put me in a trouble place to predict my XB1 numbers for this month :(
Click to expand...

SalesGAF threads are actually pretty funny these days.


NeoGAF reactions on my statement XBOX One will reach 50mn lifetime sales at some point:

May 2016:
jaguars-fan-confused-wtf.gif


October 2016:
giphy.gif


Dezember 2016:
jaguars-fan-confused-wtf.gif
 
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