CosmicQueso
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November 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 6th
DriftingSpirit
Member
But I want to believe, Cosmic! They'll be up!
But yeah, consoles will be really dead after this holiday. Switch will have to save them.
.....
I'm already dreading the NPD thread.
But yeah, consoles will be really dead after this holiday. Switch will have to save them.
.....
I'm already dreading the NPD thread.
hanspampel
Banned
while i would agree normally, xbox one was up YoY the last 3 months thanks to the xbox one s.
do you expect that to chnage magically this holiday, while being $50 cheaper compared to 2015?
CosmicQueso
Member
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The Mad Draklor
Member
It's pretty obvious when last year, Sony released the Battlefront bundles and the Black Ops III bundle last December. This time, it's just the UC4 bundle that has been out since September.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Keep in mind of how well the Xbox performed last holiday.
Sony will probably announce another CoD bundle this December. I think the price this year will help keep things from declining too much. It'll be doom either way, of course, but yeah.
CosmicQueso
Member
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Obliterator
Member
That's a damn good point software is going to be way down YoY. That dual combo of Battlefront and Fallout 4 isn't going to be made up.
I expect a lot of AAA is doomed posts in NPD results
hanspampel
Banned
great reply, tho
care to elaborate?
becuase i personally see just one possible szenario why xbox one s would be down YoY. less supply
we got several reports about lower and faster moving stock than ps4. mostly anecdotal, but still kinda weird because microsoft tend to (over)stuff the channels in the holiday season and ia get rid of leftover stock in q1 the next year. i just dont know if that observation is demand or supply driven. or a mixture of both.
but here is the reason, why i dont see xbox one being down.
- the product itself is better.
xb1s is more desireable than the original xb. it even has a usp in the uhd blu-ray player
- better bundles compared to last year. bf1 as the biggest multiplat, gears as the biggest exclusive and minecraft as the biggest kids/family game this holiday.
-weaker competiton who could take away some sales. wii u is dead. ps4 has weaker bundles compared to 2015 and the slim is not a better console over xbox one s anymore compared to original xbox one vs original ps4
the ps4 pro on the other hand has a difderent target audience. not really aimed at 4th holiday season shopper.
i also do see this as the third holiday season. the first was launch period
Final Verdict
Member
[PS4] 1450K
[XB1] 1270K
[3DS] 730K
[WIU] 160K
[XB1] 1270K
[3DS] 730K
[WIU] 160K
CosmicQueso
Member
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CosmicQueso
Member
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Sangetsu-II
Member
Has Abdiel posted his disaster impressions yet on this Month+Black Friday or does he not do it for this month to rest up?
I hadn't really had a chance to go back and tally up anything from last year to this year.
But i don't think we had as much inventory as we did last year, just from remembering pallet comparisons. It's likely Sony and ME both predicted weaker overall black Fridays and didn't commit as much stock, even though our stores sold through pretty much all of the cheapest bundles.
Last year we were flooded with stock by MS, some of which hung around until summer, because those bundles were not competitively priced or attractive to the average consumer. Took forever, with them offering additional heavy discounts. But they've done a much better job in positioning newer bundles this year, and keeping stock levels in effective levels. Cyber Monday is hard to comment on, as most of that is done through our online store (obviously), and it's hard to get exact numbers for that side of things.
But, seriously guys. The pro. That weekend was not about it. Oy. It is in fact still selling, and as expected, it continues to draw attention from people who want to game in high fidelity or improved performance on console. A significant portion of our home theatre team in my store bought one without me having to talk about it.
ethomaz
Banned
I believe PS4 will be flat due Pro launch.
Pokémon will offset Battlefield and Fallout 4.
That why I don't believe in 15-20% down... it will be down mostly due CoD.
ethomaz
Banned
My opinion.great reply, tho
care to elaborate?
becuase i personally see just one possible szenario why xbox one s would be down YoY. less supply
we got several reports about lower and faster moving stock than ps4. mostly anecdotal, but still kinda weird because microsoft tend to (over)stuff the channels in the holiday season and ia get rid of leftover stock in q1 the next year. i just dont know if that observation is demand or supply driven. or a mixture of both.
but here is the reason, why i dont see xbox one being down.
- the product itself is better.
xb1s is more desireable than the original xb. it even has a usp in the uhd blu-ray player
- better bundles compared to last year. bf1 as the biggest multiplat, gears as the biggest exclusive and minecraft as the biggest kids/family game this holiday.
-weaker competiton who could take away some sales. wii u is dead. ps4 has weaker bundles compared to 2015 and the slim is not a better console over xbox one s anymore compared to original xbox one vs original ps4
the ps4 pro on the other hand has a difderent target audience. not really aimed at 4th holiday season shopper.
i also do see this as the third holiday season. the first was launch period
XB1 only wins BF when it is $50 or more cheaper than PS4 because you know even the S has a inferior hardware than PS4.
At the same price/deal PS4 will always win.
That why XB1 will be down.
ethomaz
Banned
Pokémon sold 3.7m in NA for the first 2 weeks (November NPD)... of course that includes Canada and digital.... but I can see 2.5m NPD.
chaosmaster(1)
Member
I'm interested to see how big the cod decline is and whether if the ip is declining the way a lot of Activion's ips have and that they'll just move onto Destiny as their big release. Or the cod base on blops 3 is perfectly happy sitting on it until a cod that actually interests them comes out for example Treyarch's next game. I'm not really knowledgeable about this stuff but I'm curious as to where if the cod base if they're not buying IW. Are they still in the fps genre or are they going elsewhere. I can see destiny as an ip that would take cod players because of the game's social aspect and carrot on a stick approach.
archnemesis
Member
[3DS] 655k
[PS4] 1550k
[WIU] 140k
[XB1] 1300k
[PS4] 1550k
[WIU] 140k
[XB1] 1300k
DriftingSpirit
Member
I wonder what caused the X1 momentum to come to a halt like that. It doesn't make sense to me that it did so well building up to the holidays and then dropped during the first part of the holiday period. I don't think blaming it on the PS4's regained momentum is enough either.
chaosmaster(1)
Member
This is something I'm curious to as well. Maybe the deals on the xbox weren't attractive enough to previous deals and people interested in the product would rather wait out? It's certainly a surprise looking at the uk bf drop from last year. Also during BF consumers would be looking for the best deals so I think the buyers are more swayed by value and price and I remeber people mentioning sony had a bundle that had uc4, ratchet and tlou and was undercutting MS at some retailers so maybe interest just swayed during the period towards ps4.
ethomaz
Banned
Price.
XB1 was cheaper before BF.
At BF they had the same price... which one have the best deal???
UK the same... before S have a better price than PS4 but at BF PS4 had better deals with some being cheaper than S.
In numbers...
S pre-BF: $250
PS4 pre-BF: $300
S BF: down to $212
PS4 BF: down to $212
Because the hardware difference between them XB1 needs always to be cheaper than PS4 to sell more.
It may be that people interested in upgrading their current XB1 did it early on, as well as people interested in having a cheap 4K player.
People shopping for deals around BF/ Holidays aren't generally a very tech saavy bunch and most buyers of 4K TVs are just looking for an upgrade of their current TV, not necessarily "4K" UH BR playback at the highest quality for films, and large screen 4K TVs are just plain dirt cheap right now.
That' why imo 4K TV adoption rate is imo misleading as per the format itself. TVs are super cheap, so people upgrade with what sound good as "the latest tech", but it doesn't mean they actually will go out of their way to get "native" 4K content players.
When it comes down to purchases in the Holidays, price is king (which i why Ms did such a killing in '14, with a bundle including not only a recent $60 AAA for free, but $50 cheaper than the Ps4), and the Ps4 not only has the same price, the mind-share as "the " console to have, with a bigger install base which works in its favor for friend circles, and is the most powerful (whatever that means for Joe shmoe) and the best looking software (again, whatever that look for Joe shmoe, that's what he hears in water cooler talk or reads from tech comparisons).
Now we'll see what happens in Jan. with sales#. But it's imo very possible that the XB1s surge was both a bubble and benefiting from the market uncertainty introduced by the arrival of the Pro.
#shrug.
Number for Nov/ Dec/ Q1 will be super interesting to see where the market is going.
Real shame Aqua can't throw us bones until Jan
I hope Creamsugar can help some, but have we even seen him at all on GAf in the past few months?
Without pro, core gamers would have bought slim and ps4 sales would continued beating Xbox outside of slim and maybe gears launch. With pro announced core gamers decided to just wait and get the pro. The younger and more casual gamers can't go out and buy the consoles or don't buy day 1. This led to a decrease in sales. Only then during the holidays do younger gamers get the console they want, a ps4 slim.
Additionally, it seems like Xbox 1 is always having fire sales, bundles, and temporary price drops. So people become insensitive to it when the same thing occurs on BF. It's like a drug addiction. They need a lower and lower price to be satisfied.
hanspampel
Banned
xbox one s was the same price or even more expensive if you talk about the 1tb and 2tb model and sold more than ps4 in the last 3 months.
at leat in the us.
in uk ps4 sold more on black friday, but was cheaper. that was the reason for the huge sales gap.
+ the fact ps4 has more and argueably even better bundles in uk
Real shame Aqua can't throw us bones until Jan
Seems like Aqua was legally threatened by NPD....don't know what she'll be able to share in the future.
Microsoft's silence on top of the reports signaling a PS4 overall BF win and how things went in the UK should tell you the whole story.
They haven't won.
ethomaz
Banned
XB1 S was cheaper $250 deals vs $300 in US... the $300 XB1 S had three or more games included.
At BF in US PS4 matched the price... so Sony did cut off more than MS for BF. In UK PS4 was even cheaper at BF.
There are reason why PS4 sold more.
It's weird, they seem to really blow hot and cold alternatively as per being a bit more transparent.
Having George Mulcair on last year was great.
ethomaz
Banned
To be fair looks like She is running from them... first chertz and the message on her wall (after that she never back to post there) and now twitter.
Let's see if after the holidays (a busy month) she can post again without a lot of exposition.
I wish cream back
hanspampel
Banned
no. not the xbox one s. only the old discontinued model
and the old discontinued ps4 model was also sold for $279
august 2016 xb1 asp was $330 and ps4 close to $350. xb1 sold 70% more
september 2016 both had ~$300 asp. xb1 sold 17% more
october 2016 xb1 asp was close to $340 and ps4 just above $290. xb1 sold 40% more
the last time xb1 was cheaper and sold worse, was june 2016.
xb1 asp below $300 and ps4 $350.
ps4 sold 10% more
ethomaz
Banned
XB1 S was a hell cheaper the last months... you could get deals for $250 in September and October in US.
A lot of deals were posted on GAF.
The discussion about XB1 winning October in prediction thread was due the deals that happened across most retails.
BTW Aqua leaked the avg. price sold each console and XB1 was cheaper in October than PS4.
hanspampel
Banned
what are you talking about? that is all completely wrong.
xbox one s had one week in september, where you could get a free game with each console purchased and some people got it down to $250 thanks to "return expolite"
all other deals were not nation wide discounts or deals from the big retailers with huge volume. and that kind of deals were also available for ps4 and ps4 slim. even ps4 pro at launch.
the 10 or 15% off at target as example was not exclusive to xbox one s and applied to all consoles. bundles with additional games from neweegg via ebay were xbox one s and ps4 slim
as you see, that is nothing special and unusual.
and no, the xbox one avg price was not cheaper in october.
xb1 asp was $338,5 and ps4 was $292,5
The Mad Draklor
Member
Microsoft wasn't necessarily silent, but the company was extremely vague with its Black Friday PR this time around whether it involved hardware sales or Live engagement.
hanspampel
Banned
so neither Microsoft or Sony made a more specific comment on black friday performance. we'll have to wait 5 more days now.
the twitter account of aquamarine is deleated. so i'm not even sure if she will post some numbers in january again
the twitter account of aquamarine is deleated. so i'm not even sure if she will post some numbers in january again
KillerMan91
Member
I just have hard time to see PS4 down yoy with Pro launch. Pro sold 65k units first week in Japan and Japanese home console market is not exactly healthy (and Pro is extra expensive in Japan). Should be at least 400k units for full month in US. With that base PS4 could be 400k units down yoy and still as a whole PS4 family would be flat yoy.
Welfare
Member
Got a lot of stuff to respond to, which I will, but Astronaut Claire's Twitter is gone.
Also I will have my comparison post up by tonight and yeah, can't see PS4 even being flat this year. Pro and the slim will have needed to massively over performed.
UK launch was 42k. Nothing to write home about. Also Japan hardware launches are really good for PlayStation so the overall market being weak wouldn't affect Pro much.
Also I will have my comparison post up by tonight and yeah, can't see PS4 even being flat this year. Pro and the slim will have needed to massively over performed.
The Mad Draklor
Member
I checked my account and yeah, AstronautClaire is gone gone. I wonder if NPD decided to be undiplomatic about sharing numbers again...
Dash_Riprock
Member
Damn, nothing from Sony and a vague as hell PR from MS.
Reading these tea leaves I would say that.....
Sony outsold MS.
Both are down YoY.
So what you are saying is that consoles are doomed.
Um yeah I'm fairly positive most of this post is false
Actually sold 3.7m in Americas.
Just who won.