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Welfare · Dec 4, 2016

Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of October and November. Both months are 4 weeks long, but November is the 2nd biggest month of the year in terms of total sales and the biggest month when it comes to weekly average thanks to Black Friday week. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for November to help show how the month might be impacted. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.

Code:

2010

Xbox 360 October: 325K / 4 = 81,250
Xbox 360 November: 1.374M / 4 = 343,500

Weekly average up 323%

PS3 October: 250K / 4 = 62,500
PS3 November: 530K / 4 = 132,500

Weekly average up 112%

Wii October: 232K / 4 = 58,000
Wii November: 1.27M / 4 = 317,500

Weekly average up 447%

Code:

Notable Events in November

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Kinect Adventures Kinect bundles [4GB $299 | 250GB $399] [4 weeks] [~687k]

Call of Duty: Black Ops [3 weeks] [4.9m]
Assassin's Creed: Brotherhood [2 weeks]

[u]PS3[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Call of Duty: Black Ops [3 weeks] [3.1m]
Gran Turismo 5 [1 week] [400k]

[u]Wii[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Donkey Kong Country Returns [1 week] [430.5k]

Code:

2011

Xbox 360 October: 393K / 4 = 98,250
Xbox 360 November: 1.688M / 4 = 422,000

Weekly average up 330%

PS3 October: 245K / 4 = 61,250
PS3 November: 894K / 4 = 223,500

Weekly average up 265%

Wii October: 249K / 4 = 62,250
Wii November: 863K / 4 = 215,750

Weekly average up 247%

Code:

Notable Events in November

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 320GB Bundle $549 [3 weeks]

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 [3 weeks] [5.2m]
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim [3 weeks]
Assassin's Creed: Revelations [3 weeks]
Halo: Combat Evolved Anniversary [2 weeks]
Saints Row: The Third [2 weeks]

[u]PS3[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3 [3 weeks] [3.2m]
The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim [3 weeks]
Uncharted 3: Drake's Deception [4 weeks] [700k]
Assassin's Creed: Revelations [3 weeks]
Saints Row: The Third [2 weeks]

[u]Wii[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

The Legend of Zelda: Skyward Sword [1 week]

Code:

2012

Xbox 360 October: 270K / 4 = 67,500
Xbox 360 November: 1.259M / 4 = 314,750

Weekly average up 366%

PS3 October: 170K / 4 = 42,500
PS3 November: 762K / 4 = 190,500

Weekly average up 348%

Wii October: 45k / 4 = 11,250
Wii November: 420K / 4 = 105,000

Weekly average up 833%

Code:

Notable Events in November

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Halo 4 Limited Collector's Edition [~320k] [3 weeks]

Call of Duty: Black Ops II [2 weeks] [4.53m]
Halo 4 [3 weeks] [3.2m]
Assassin's Creed III [4 weeks]

[u]PS3[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Call of Duty: Black Ops II [2 weeks] [2.87m]
Assassin's Creed III [4 weeks]

[u]Wii[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Wii Sports + Wii Sports Resort +  Wii Remote Plus Black bundle $129 [Full availability]

Code:

2013

Xbox 360 October: 166K / 4 = 41,500
Xbox 360 November: 647K / 4 = 161,750

Weekly average up 290%

PS3 October: 119K / 4 = 29,750
PS3 November: 407K / 4 = 101,750

Weekly average up 242%

Wii October: 34k / 4 = 8,500
Wii November: 68k / 4 = 17,000

Weekly average up 100%

Wii U October: 50k / 4 = 12,500
Wii U November: 223K / 4 = 55,750

Weekly average up 346%

Code:

Notable Events in November

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Call of Duty: Ghosts [4 weeks] [>3.3m]

[u]PS3[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Call of Duty: Ghosts [4 weeks] [>1.8m]

[u]Wii[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Mario Kart Wii Wii Mini bundle $99 [2 weeks]

[u]Wii U[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Super Mario 3D World [2 weeks] [<220k]

Code:

2014

Xbox 360 October: 63k / 4 = 15,750
Xbox 360 November: 306K / 4 = 76,500

Weekly average up 386%

Xbox One October: 168K / 4 = 42,000
Xbox One November: 1,230,500 / 4 = 307,625

Weekly average up 632%

PS3 October: 35k / 4 = 8,750
PS3 November: 89k  / 4 = 22,250

Weekly average up 154%

PS4 October: 297K / 4 = 74,250
PS4 November: 831K  / 4 = 207,750

Weekly average up 180%

Wii October: 13k / 4 = 3,250
Wii November: 25k / 4 = 6,250

Weekly average up 92%

Wii U October: 69k / 4 = 17,250
Wii U November: 240K / 4 = 60,000

Weekly average up 248%

Code:

Notable Events In November

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare [4 weeks] [<1.238m]
Far Cry 4 [2 weeks] [~120k]

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Assassin's Creed: Unity 500GB bundle $349 [4 weeks] [<829k]
Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare 1TB bundle $499 [4 weeks] [200k]


Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare [4 weeks] [<1195k]
Halo MCC [3 weeks] [>660k]
Grand Theft Auto V [2 weeks] [>517k]
Far Cry 4 [2 weeks] [214k]
Dragon Age Inquisition [2 weeks] [<192k]

[u]PS3[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare [4 weeks] [<725.7k]

[u]PS4[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

GTAV + The Last of Us bundle [1 week] [340k]

Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare [4 weeks] [<1110k]
Grand Theft Auto V [2 weeks] [>583k]
Far Cry 4 [2 weeks] [281k]
Dragon Age Inquisition [2 weeks] [<258k]

[u]Wii[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

[u]Wii U[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Super Smash Bros U [1 week] [670k]

Code:

2015

Wii = Basically dead

Xbox 360 October: 29,700 / 4 = 7,425
Xbox 360 November: 72k / 4 = 18,000

Weekly average up 142%

Xbox One October: 303,500 / 4 = 75,875
Xbox One November: 1.296M / 4 = 324,000

Weekly average up 327%

PS3 October: 16,900 / 4 = 4,225
PS3 November: 23k  / 4 = 5,750

Weekly average up 36%

PS4 October: 274,700 / 4 = 68,675
PS4 November: 1.539M  / 4 = 384,750

Weekly average up 460%

Wii U October: 64,600 / 4 = 16,150
Wii U November: 240K / 4 = 60,000

Weekly average up 272%

Code:

Notable Events in November

[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Call of Duty: Black Ops III [4 weeks] [533k]

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Gears of War UE 500GB White bundle $349 [Walmart] [4 weeks]
Fallout 4 1TB Bundle $399 [3 weeks] [158k]
Tomb Raider 1TB Bundle $399 [Best Buy + MS Store] [4 weeks]
Xbox One Elite Bundle $499 [Gamestop + MS Store] [4 weeks]

Black Ops 3 [4 weeks] [1948k]
Fallout 4 [3 weeks] [<1116k]
Battlefront [2 weeks] [843k]
Need for Speed [4 weeks] [138k]
Tomb Raider [3 weeks] [176k]

[u]PS3[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Call of Duty: Black Ops III [4 weeks] [~245k]

[u]PS4[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Battlefront 500GB Bundle $349/Battlefront "Vader" console 500GB Bundle $399 [2 weeks] [375k]
Black Ops 3 1TB Bundle $429 [4 weeks] [251k]
Disney Infinity 3.0 "Vader" Console 500GB Bundle $399 [2 weeks]

Black Ops 3 [4 weeks] [1902k]
Fallout 4 [3 weeks] [<1264k]
Battlefront [2 weeks] [883k]
Need for Speed [4 weeks] [<252k]


[u]Wii U[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Code:

2016 October Weekly Averages

Xbox One: 329,000 / 4 = 82,250
PS4: 235,100 / 4 = 58,775
Wii U: 24,600 / 4 = 6,150

Code:

Notable Events in November

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Free game with any Xbox One purchased [9 days: November 4 - November 12]

Xbox One S Battlefield 1 500GB Stormy Grey Limited bundle $299 [Wal-Mart/MS Store] [4 weeks]
Xbox One S Gears of War 4 500GB Deep Blue Limited bundle $299 [Gamestop/MS Store] [4 weeks]

Call of Duty Infinite Warfare [4 weeks]
Watch Dogs 2 [2 weeks]

[u]PS4[/u]
Numerous Monthly / Black Friday Deals

Call of Duty Infinite Warfare free with every PS4 [2 days: November 4 - November 5]

PS4 Pro 1TB $399 [3 weeks]

Call of Duty Infinite Warfare [4 weeks]
Watch Dogs 2 [2 weeks]

Notes:

November is YUGE. The best month. Every console sees a massive increase going into November by at least 200%. For the sake of averaging averages I will remove 360/PS3 2015 as they are not indicative of normal November performance.

Now, I wanted to separate this from the above comparisons because it is only a limited amount of data but we do have Black Friday week numbers for the Xbox 360 in 2011 and 2012.

Code:

2011: 960,000
2012: 750,000

Code:

2011

Xbox 360 October: 393K / 4 = 98,250
Xbox 360 November: 728K / 3 = 242,667

Weekly average up 147%

Code:

2012

Xbox 360 October: 270K / 4 = 67,500
Xbox 360 November: 509K / 3 = 169,667

Weekly average up 151%

BF week represented 57% and 60% (respectively) of total November sales. Black Friday week has recently been close to 60% of total November sales, unless something big happens earlier in the month (massive bundles, price drop), then it could drop closer to 50%

Xbox
If you read last month, you saw that Xbox’s momentum increases from September to October and going into November the average increases by at least 300% (except 2013 which saw the launch of the Xbox One). The brand always performs well in the holidays.

The Xbox 360 rose an average of 339%, with a minimum of 290% (2013) and maximum of 386% (2014).

For the Xbox One, it has only been out for 2 November’s worth of data. 2014 was a price cut month with extreme bundles and saw an increase by a massive 632%. 2015 was more tame in comparison and more in line with previous Xbox holidays and saw an increase of 327%. Going into this year starting with June, the Xbox One has been doing well at increasing momentum and the Xbox One S has improved that even further. Below is the weekly average for the year so far to show this. January compares to December, February to January, so on and so on. To put further context to the below, February is tax returns, end of March to end of April saw a temporary $50 price drop, June saw permanent price drops down to $279, and July saw a further price drop to $249. August is when the S launched.

Code:

2016 |  XB1   |              |
Jan  | 33,000 |     -88%     |
Feb  | 62,050 |     +88%     |
Mar  | 48,300 |     -22%     |
Apr  | 41,900 |     -13%     |
May  | 26,775 |     -36%     |
Jun  | 42,380 |     +58%     |
Jul  | 42,775 |     +1%      |
Aug  | 68,700 |     +61%     |
Sep  | 66,560 |     -3%      |
Oct  | 82,250 |     +24%     |
Nov  |   ??   |      ??      |

Playstation
Sony doesn’t actually perform as well in the holidays as Xbox in terms of % increases. The PS3 averaged a 224% increase with a minimum of 112% (2010) and maximum of 348% (2012).

PS4 in 2014 had a slightly worse increase compared to the PS3 average with a 180% increase, but with 2015 that changed. PS4 had both a limited edition Black Ops 3 bundle and a standard Star Wars Battlefront bundle. This in addition to a $50 price drop that happened in October helped push sales a massive 460%. We can break down bundle sales like this

Code:

Total November | Battlefront | Black Ops 3 | Rest |
   1.539M      |     375K    |     251K    | 913K |

41% of total PS4 sales came from these special and pretty big releases. Comparing just regular PS4 sales to October and the % increase is 232%, on par with normal PlayStation performance.

Now 2016 is somewhat like 2015. This year has no massive third party bundle, but instead a standard Uncharted 4 bundle. Worth mentioning is that the slim is doing slightly worse than last year's Uncharted: Nathan Drake Collection bundle. In October 2015 the bundle did over 135K (NDC did >300K in October and standalone was below Yoshi which did 165K) while the slim only did 130K this October.

To possibly replace the third party bundles however is the new PS4 Pro. New iterative console, $399, doesn’t look to be supply constrained, can it replicate the 626K that happened last year?

So far we know the Pro debuted at 42,000 in the UK and 65,000 in Japan. Week 2 and 3 sales in Japan total ~20k. The UK usually represents around 20-25% of total US sales and Japan around 23% right now. To note however that Japan has higher debuts for Playstation hardware compared to the UK, such as the Pro, PS4 Slim (96,000 in Japan, low 1,000’s in UK), PS4 launch, PS3 slims, and so on. It might not seem like it but Japan is actually a stronger market than the UK for Playstation. A ~200K launch week in the US seems very likely. Only question is how Pro sold in week 2 and Black Friday week. 500K is the high bar for Pro in my opinion.

Now, I want do a similar comparison between the weekly average for the year so far like the Xbox One. February is tax returns, May was Uncharted 4, and September was the price drop to $299 plus Slim launch.

Code:

2016 |  PS4   |              |
Jan  | 57,500 |     -82%     |
Feb  | 101,225|     +76%     |
Mar  | 66,020 |     -35%     |
Apr  | 43,700 |     -34%     |
May  | 51,825 |     +19%     |
Jun  | 46,900 |     -90%     |
Jul  | 40,300 |     -14%     |
Aug  | 40,000 |     -1%      |
Sep  | 57,060 |     +43%     |
Oct  | 58,775 |     +3%      |
Nov  |   ??   |      ??      |

Nintendo

The Wii saw the biggest increase in November during the 7th gen. The average increase was 344%.

The Wii U has not seen a similar boost in November. Besides November 2013 (Price cut happened September 2013), The Wii U has seen increases less than 300%. Including 2013, the average increase is 288% and without 2013 it is 260%

Recap

November is the second biggest month of the year so everyone will see big boosts.

The biggest November ever recorded between the 7th and 8th gen was the Wii with 2,040,000 back in 2008. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 1,688,000 in 2011.

EDIT: Was not expecting this to be at the top of the page. Guess everyone will be able to read it then.

Welfare · Dec 4, 2016

Double post so that the above is separated.

ethomaz said:
XB1 S was a hell cheaper the last months... you could get deals for $250 in September and October in US.
A lot of deals were posted on GAF.

The discussion about XB1 winning October in prediction thread was due the deals that happened across most retails.

BTW Aqua leaked the avg. price sold each console and XB1 was cheaper in October than PS4.

I think you meant September.

September
PS4 ASP = $306.10
XB1 ASP = $299.57

October
XB1 ASP = $338.41
PS4 ASP = $292.53

jaina · Dec 4, 2016

N.Domixis said:
Now that TLOU2, Crash HD, WipeOut, Uncharted 4 DLC have been shown, I can make a prediction for Nov.

incorrect format, except for 3DS

slavesnyder · Dec 4, 2016

thank you welfare
the wall of numbers always is a force of nature.

anothertech · Dec 4, 2016

[PS4] 1800k
[XB1] 1000k
[3DS] 500k
[WIU] 75k
Ps4 Pro: 460k

Dash_Riprock · Dec 4, 2016

anothertech said:
[PS4] 1800k
[XB1] 1000k
[3DS] 500k
[WIU] 75k
Ps4 Pro: 460k

I think if Sony sold nearly 2x that of MS (Pro or not) we would've heard about it.

noobie · Dec 4, 2016

Thank you welfare. Looking at your statistic I feel that ps4 is going to get humiliated because Xbox brand seem to always get bigger percentage increase and this time they are already coming with a better momentum. So pro is only unknown that can tilt it in Sony favor but so far reaction on pro is a bit muted and black Friday being such a big part of November share and black Friday is all about better and cheaper bundle I m doubtful it will have a meaningful impact

hanspampel · Dec 4, 2016

thanks welfare. your numbers in this topic are always the best and most useful insight to estimate the npd numbers. ofc past performance is not all, but mixed with current market behavior and observation, thats how all analysts get theirs.

and these numbers show one thing for me. something that will not happen for 99,9% certain is ps4 outselling xb1 this november by a big margin
if we expect a 500% increase for ps4, thanks to below average demand in october in anticipation for pro in november, the sales would be ~1400
if we expect a 300% increase for xb1 and worse performance than 2015, what i find highly unlikely, the sales would be ~1300

a different and also possible szenarion:
ps4 400% increase to ~1200
xb1 400% increase to ~1650

a huge difference in ps4 favour needs ps4 to increase by 600% and xb1 be just 250% or slightly more.
that would result in ~1650 ps4 and just ~1150 xb1 sales

Elandyll · Dec 4, 2016

noobie said:
Thank you welfare. Looking at your statistic I feel that ps4 is going to get humiliated because Xbox brand seem to always get bigger percentage increase and this time they are already coming with a better momentum. So pro is only unknown that can tilt it in Sony favor but so far reaction on pro is a bit muted and black Friday being such a big part of November share and black Friday is all about better and cheaper bundle I m doubtful it will have a meaningful impact

so ... with no meaningful PR by Ms, and sales indications that sony won both retail BF and the whole month of November, you think that "Ps4 is going to get humiliated"?

... Ok.

Tratorn · Dec 4, 2016

[PS4] 1311311
[XB1] 1201201
[3DS] 567890
[WIU] 87878

noobie · Dec 4, 2016

Elandyll said:
so ... with no meaningful PR by Ms, and sales indications that sony won both retail BF and the whole month of November, you think that "Ps4 is going to get humiliated"?

... Ok.

Sony hasn't given any numbers either. So I think looking at welfare statistics and previous months data its safe tu assume Sony is not doing impressive in USA NPD.

Elios83 · Dec 4, 2016

noobie said:
Sony hasn't given any numbers either. So I think looking at welfare statistics and previous months data its safe tu assume Sony is not doing impressive in USA NPD.

Sony doesn't care about giving these numbers, they are only interested in worldwide sell-through, there have even been months when they won NPD and didn't even comment on it.
Microsoft instead is a company that made a PR about winning September in UK when the gap was 1500 units.
Ask yourself when is the last time that MS stayed silent...it was with Gears of War 4 and we all know why.
Microsoft's silence = less sales than PS4 and down yoy. No chance to spin, no talk.

The Mad Draklor · Dec 4, 2016

noobie said:
Sony hasn't given any numbers either. So I think looking at welfare statistics and previous months data its safe tu assume Sony is not doing impressive in USA NPD.

Sony tends to not give numbers or PR unless they feel like it. I saw a few people that claimed that UC4 didn't meet expectations because Sony didn't immediately give sales numbers. Eventually, Sony revealed that it sold over 2.7 million in its first week. There were also cases where Sony didn't give PR even though the PS4 won an NPD month. In contrast, there is no precedent where MS does not give PR whenever the XB1 wins an NPD month. Lastly, the tone of MS's post-Black Friday PR of this year and last year are night and day.

hanspampel · Dec 4, 2016

Elios83 said:
Sony doesn't care about giving these numbers, they are only interested in worldwide sell-through, there have even been months when they won NPD and didn't even comment on it.
Microsoft instead is a company that made a PR about winning September in UK when the gap was 1500 units.
Ask yourself when is the last time that MS stayed silent...it was with Gears of War 4 and we all know why.
Microsoft's silence = less sales than PS4 and down yoy. No chance to spin, no talk.

there is so much wrong with this post here.
they dont know if they sold more or less than sony. last year they made a pr statement, while selling less than sony. the year before they crushed ps4 sales wise and made no pre npd release pr statement.

do you see the inconsistency here? and yet you made a generalizing that is not true at all for both companys.
if you want to make such a statement, the only one you could do without making a fool of yourself:
companys give out numbers or pr statements when! and if! they want, they're sure the claim is factually correct and is positive.
if one of the above isn't there or even uncertain, they rather be silent.

so you should better wait 4 more days before making these kind of claims

sirronoh · Dec 4, 2016

Eh? Settle down you two. We'll see what happens on Thursday.

On a different topic, what we didn't hear about on Day 1 of PSX was any new PS4 bundles. Has anyone seen any new December bundles from either company?

DriftingSpirit · Dec 4, 2016

sirronoh said:
Eh? Settle down you two. We'll see what happens on Thursday.

On a different topic, what we didn't hear about on Day 1 of PSX was any new PS4 bundles. Has anyone seen any new December bundles from either company?

Sony didn't announce the CoD bundle last year until Dec 15th.

http://blog.us.playstation.com/2015...ty-black-ops-iii-standard-edition-ps4-bundle/

So, it may just be a bit longer until we hear more on their end.

hanspampel · Dec 4, 2016

DriftingSpirit said:
Sony didn't announce the CoD bundle last year until Dec 15th.

http://blog.us.playstation.com/2015...ty-black-ops-iii-standard-edition-ps4-bundle/

So, it may just be a bit longer until we hear more on their end.

correct but the bundle was listet at amazon.com some days earlier.

so either next week, or never.
especially with christmas beeing sunday this year.
only 3 more weeks of shopping. releasedate 13rd december is the last possible date imho.

mejin · Dec 4, 2016

Since Sony didn't talk about sales on PSX I think we'll see something early january.

But yes, MS silence is worthy of note.

Welfare · Dec 4, 2016

Microsoft had PR last year even though they didn't win because it was the second biggest Black Friday week ever. This year was probably worse than that so there is nothing to gain from talking about the #3 (or worse) Black Friday week for Xbox.

allan-bh · Dec 4, 2016

CosmicQueso said:
Seriously, I just can't stress enough just how unlikely year on year growth is for HW this nov/dec.

It's the 4th holiday. If these consoles follow the cyclicality of nearly all other cycles before it, sales will be down for both boxes compared to last year.

Check your expectations. It will be a waste of time for everyone to moan about sales being down when of course they're going to be down. Not because gaming is dead but because of normal market behaviors.

I don't think YoY growth should be unexpected for PS4 since the Pro model is out.

Kagari · Dec 4, 2016

Abdiel said:
Why is anyone expecting momentum from Pro on Black Friday? If there was an award for most ignored product on a key shopping day, I'd have given to the pro then. Which is obvious? We had no special promos, no deals or discounts. It more amuses me when people make comments about how badly the pro food on BF. Were they expecting differently? The slim and S ruled the day, hands down.

Hey, I know this won't show until December NPD but any idea on how FFXV ended up doing first week for you guys?

Elios83 · Dec 4, 2016

hanspampel said:
there is so much wrong with this post here.
they dont know if they sold more or less than sony. last year they made a pr statement, while selling less than sony. the year before they crushed ps4 sales wise and made no pre npd release pr statement.

do you see the inconsistency here? and yet you made a generalizing that is not true at all for both companys.
if you want to make such a statement, the only one you could do without making a fool of yourself:
companys give out numbers or pr statements when! and if! they want, they're sure the claim is factually correct and is positive.
if one of the above isn't there or even uncertain, they rather be silent.

so you should better wait 4 more days before making these kind of claims

They have a clear idea of the numbers because they also have internal weekly tracking.
Last year Microsoft made a PR to claim they were up yoy and they broke records so they could focus on that:
http://venturebeat.com/2015/12/03/m...friday-week-sales-for-xbox-one-broke-records/
They couldn't claim best selling console and obviously they didn't, but they had something to brag about.
In 2014 they didn't say anything???
Short memory as Greenberg was trolling everywhere with pictures of Xboxes flying off the schelves while the GTA PS4 bundle was not selling as well.
This year total silence.

I'm NOT saying that final results are certain nor that I'm betting on any particular outcome, I'm saying that so far we have indicators with a pretty clear meaning.
Discounting if not ignoring Microsoft's silence, the results reported by independent trackers and how things went in UK that is a market that correlates well with US for Xbox sales, is not a wise thing to do just because you believe in an other outcome.
But as you say we'll find out soon.

hanspampel · Dec 4, 2016

Elios83 said:
In 2014 they didn't say anything???
Short memory as Greenberg was trolling everywhere with pictures of Xboxes flying off the schelves while the GTA PS4 bundle was not selling as well.
This year total silence.

you really want to compare some tweets from greenberg showing pallets of xbox one consoles with the pr statement about black friday performance from 2015?
totally different.

but you can compare the greenberg tweets from 2014 about xbox one flying of the shelfs with this year "very strong demand" comment.

but i still do stand correct. they made no pre npd pr in 2014 while winning by a huge margin.
they made a pre npd pr in 2015 while losing.
they made no pre npd pr in 2016 and we don't know the outcome yet.

so the pr or lack of pr is no proof of any performance it's a inconsistent indicator at best. and imho you're very wrong. xbox one this year will be either up YoY or selling more than ps4. maybe even both. but that is just my interpretation of the market

nekkid · Dec 4, 2016

Low sales for the Pro wouldn't surprise me. I totally understand what it is and who it's for, but Sony are caught between a rock and a hard place advertising it - the same as Microsoft will assuredly be next year. You can't big it up without shitting on the Slim - well, not without an longer explanation of its value proposition, a task incompatible with a lot of advertising mediums.

I've seen one specific advert for the Pro in the UK, and that was part of a bigger advert for a retailer selling a number of unrelated items, and I bet it's to limit damage to the lower spec model.

noobie · Dec 4, 2016

hanspampel said:
you really want to compare some tweets from greenberg showing pallets of xbox one consoles with the pr statement about black friday performance from 2015?
totally different.

but you can compare the greenberg tweets from 2014 about xbox one flying of the shelfs with this year "very strong demand" comment.

but i still do stand correct. they made no pre npd pr in 2014 while winning by a huge margin.
they made a pre npd pr in 2015 while losing.
they made no pre npd pr in 2016 and we don't know the outcome yet.

so the pr or lack of pr is no proof of any performance it's a inconsistent indicator at best. and imho you're very wrong. xbox one this year will be either up YoY or selling more than ps4. maybe even both. but that is just my interpretation of the market

Thank you for stating the obvious. Each company knows its sales before NPD and they can guess if they will win or lose but they cannot claim it. In 2014 Sony did quite horrible in terms of November sales and I feel same is going to happen in 2016.

This does not mean Microsoft is going to do better then last year i just expect Microsoft to win comfortably without breaking their own records for November

hanspampel · Dec 4, 2016

noobie said:
Thank you for stating the obvious. Each company knows its sales before NPD and they can guess if they will win or lose but they cannot claim it. In 2014 Sony did quite horrible in terms of November sales and I feel same is going to happen in 2016.

This does not mean Microsoft is going to do better then last year i just expect Microsoft to win comfortably without breaking their own records for November

yes, every company has a pretty good understanding about theire own sales and performance prior npd release. especially these days, where 99% of consoles are connectetd to the internet and their online service.

holiday sales are a lil tougher due to higher volume even at small retailers and many people buy consoles as presents and dont use them immediately. but they still have many realtime data from wholesale and retail + their own metrics. so they know.

when it's a close race, they cant tell if the won or not. a year like 2014? they knew!

xbox one outsold ps4 by 33% holiday 2014
ps4 outsold xb1 by 16,5% holiday 2015
this year could be an even closer gap. so no comany could be certain about winning. but the gap could also be bigger and maybe they already know.
i dont have that data and dont know. i can only observe the market and estimate. ps4 pro is the big variable i cant gauge good enough

dafodeu · Dec 4, 2016

[3DS] 1000K
[PS4] 1500K
[WIU] 150K
[XB1] 1600K

There isn't any New 3ds systems available on Amazon right now to buy, just 3rd parties. That is crazy to me, Nintendo needs to get with it. I wanted to buy the Lime Green Amazon Exclusive New 3ds today for a gift and it's all sold out along with the Galaxy, Pokemon one, Black, and Red New 3ds. Literally not one sku in stock. So frustrating.

ethomaz · Dec 4, 2016

No PR yet

The Mad Draklor · Dec 4, 2016

hanspampel said:
you really want to compare some tweets from greenberg showing pallets of xbox one consoles with the pr statement about black friday performance from 2015?
totally different.

but you can compare the greenberg tweets from 2014 about xbox one flying of the shelfs with this year "very strong demand" comment.

but i still do stand correct. they made no pre npd pr in 2014 while winning by a huge margin.
they made a pre npd pr in 2015 while losing.
they made no pre npd pr in 2016 and we don't know the outcome yet.

so the pr or lack of pr is no proof of any performance it's a inconsistent indicator at best. and imho you're very wrong. xbox one this year will be either up YoY or selling more than ps4. maybe even both. but that is just my interpretation of the market

Microsoft did make post-BF/pre-NPD PR on the last day of November NPD's tracking period, but it was extremely vague and the company didn't divulge into any further detail a week later.

Also, congrats on making it to GAF, prinz.

hanspampel · Dec 4, 2016

microsoft just revealed their first nation wide december promotion

just a merly additional controller with every console purchase for one week. last yeas, they pricecut $50 again just one week after blackfriday / cybermonday for 3 weeks.

this is one more indication of either strong demand, low stock or a mixture of both. so the one is selling at a good enough pace for microsoft. whatever those internal estimates and performace goals are...

5Twist said:
Microsoft did make post-BF/pre-NPD PR on the last day of November NPD's tracking period

i already mentioned that. and no that is no offical pr press release. that is a comment. just like greenberg tweets in 2014

and i wasn't the person who claimed microsoft went radio silent this year.

SneakersSO · Dec 5, 2016

hanspampel said:
microsoft just revealed their first nation wide december promotion

just a merly additional controller with every console purchase for one week. last yeas, they pricecut $50 again just one week after blackfriday / cybermonday for 3 weeks.

this is one more indication of either strong demand, low stock or a mixture of both. so the one is selling at a good enough pace for microsoft. whatever those internal estimates and performace goals are...

Or it means the cuts they've done for the last 5-6 months are so deep they can't afford to cut any further this quarter?

Guymelef · Dec 5, 2016

hanspampel said:
microsoft just revealed their first nation wide december promotion

just a merly additional controller with every console purchase for one week. last yeas, they pricecut $50 again just one week after blackfriday / cybermonday for 3 weeks.

this is one more indication of either strong demand, low stock or a mixture of both. so the one is selling at a good enough pace for microsoft. whatever those internal estimates and performace goals are...

Or indication of they have a lot of dusty controllers.

hanspampel · Dec 5, 2016

Guymelef said:
Or indication of they have a lot of dusty controllers.

yeah all that dusty white and black xbox one s controllers, that got released just 4 and 3 months ago, they need to get rid of...

especially the black one, that is already sold out at amazon right now

Trust me. I'm a PhD · Dec 5, 2016

[3DS] 675k
[PS4] 1400k
[WIU] 120k
[XB1] 1150k

Wolf... I have no clue.

ethomaz · Dec 5, 2016

hanspampel said:
microsoft just revealed their first nation wide december promotion

just a merly additional controller with every console purchase for one week. last yeas, they pricecut $50 again just one week after blackfriday / cybermonday for 3 weeks.

this is one more indication of either strong demand, low stock or a mixture of both. so the one is selling at a good enough pace for microsoft. whatever those internal estimates and performace goals are...

Or they reached a point they can't take more loses cutting the price...

freefornow · Dec 5, 2016

[3DS] 525K
[PS4] 1270K
[WIU] 77K
[XB1] 1275K

The Mad Draklor · Dec 5, 2016

hanspampel said:
i already mentioned that. and no that is no offical pr press release. that is a comment. just like greenberg tweets in 2014

and i wasn't the person who claimed microsoft went radio silent this year.

We can argue semantics all you want, but the tone of "official"/"unofficial" PR from 2014 & 2015 is significantly different from that of the PR of this year. Microsoft was exponentially more enthusiastic after BF 2014 and 2015. After this Black Friday? Not so much.

Looking further into the post-BF 2016 statement, it was made by Mike Nichols, Vice President of Xbox Marketing. Based on the title of the person who released the statement, the PR is more on the official side than on the unofficial side.

RexNovis · Dec 5, 2016

[XB1] 1075K
[PS4] 1364K
[3DS] 633K
[WIU] 77k

PS4 Pro ~285K

I think a lot of ppl are overestimating WiiU sales in here considering just how much it's sales collapsed this year. 88k represents an over 350% sales bump for the platform. I have a hard time beleiveing we will see it get a bigger bump than that without any new games or big sales to help sell the platform this holiday.

hanspampel · Dec 5, 2016

5Twist said:
We can argue semantics all you want, but the tone of "official"/"unofficial" PR from 2014 & 2015 is significantly different from that of the PR of this year. Microsoft was exponentially more enthusiastic after BF 2014 and 2015. After this Black Friday? Not so much.

Looking further into the post-BF 2016 statement, it was made by Mike Nichols, Vice President of Xbox Marketing. Based on the title of the person who released the statement, the PR is more on the official side than on the unofficial side.

fair enough if you interpret the statements that way. i do a little differently. i do agree tho on 2015 being more enthusiastic, but then again they lost that month and the YoY growth was only 6%

aaron greenberg is the head of xbox marketing. so if he tweets about xbox he is also an official voice of microsoft. there is still a big drifference about a statement or answer how your product is doing, or an offical written pressrelease.

would be different, if they would have given out numbers, but they did not "flying off the shelfs and doing great" was 2014 "strong demand" was 2016.
2015 on the other hand? "scond best friday ever. 57% increase in sales at xbox store. live gold up 40% and black friday week hardware in the us up 22% YoY"

maybe it's just me, but i don't see those as similar or compareable at all

RexNovis · Dec 5, 2016

I really wish people would stop interpreting indicators and data points through the lens of their own desires and just see them for the insight that they are. There is no point in discussing anything if its just going to be twisted to suit a preconceived conclusion about the likeliest outcome. Since we have an abundance of third party reports and other indicators, we should be discussing their value and accuracy in order to weigh them appropriately when making our predictions. This forced interpretation and fixation on semantics is missing the forest for the trees.

How about dissecting the reports we have so far:

Infoscout - PS4 leads retail for BF, XB1 leads online BF, PS4 leads the month overall

Adobe - XB1 leads BF online but PS4 leads online for the month of November

Let's scrutinize this information. How reliable are these reports given their methodologies and sample sizes?

Then let's consider historical trends for the industry:

Most would show to expect both platforms to be down YoY this year.

This is also backed up by much softer SW and HW sales than prior years in the months leading up to November. This will very likely be exacerbated by the lack of what were very strong performances from software brands and powerful IPs last year.

On the other end we also have HW revisions to consider and how they might impact sales for this year as both companies released revisions this year.

What indicators do we have about the selling power of these revisions currently and is it possible that they could offset the expected YoY declines from lower SW sales and the historical perspective?

These are all interesting and analytically valuable questions to ruminate and discuss. Arguing back and forth over the semantics/significance of vague statements or lack there of provides more insight into the personal biases of those arguing than it does meaningful analytical insight. I would much rather hear peoples thoughts and comments on the myriad things I mentioned previously.

RexNovis · Dec 5, 2016

Welfare said:
Xbox One October: 303,500 / 4 = 75,875
Xbox One November: 1.296M / 4 = 324,000

Weekly average up 327%

Hey Welfare just an FYI under your 2015 table the XB1 weekly value is wrong

1.269m divided by 4 is 317k not 324k
Consequently the Weekly average up also becomes 318% not 327%

Might want to correct that

Edit: Oops sorry for the double post

thread moving way slower than I thought and ... I apparently can't read numbers... plz ignore

Welfare · Dec 5, 2016

RexNovis said:
Hey Welfare just an FYI under your 2015 table the XB1 weekly value is wrong

1.269m divided by 4 is 317k not 324k
Consequently the Weekly average up also becomes 318% not 327%

Might want to correct that

Edit: Oops sorry for the double post thread moving way slower than I thought.

That is 1.296m. You did 1.269m.

perfectchaos007 · Dec 5, 2016

[3DS] 900K
[PS4] 1200K
[WIU] 90K
[XB1] 1400K

StrongBlackVine · Dec 5, 2016

hanspampel said:
microsoft just revealed their first nation wide december promotion

just a merly additional controller with every console purchase for one week. last yeas, they pricecut $50 again just one week after blackfriday / cybermonday for 3 weeks.

this is one more indication of either strong demand, low stock or a mixture of both. so the one is selling at a good enough pace for microsoft. whatever those internal estimates and performace goals are...

i already mentioned that. and no that is no offical pr press release. that is a comment. just like greenberg tweets in 2014

and i wasn't the person who claimed microsoft went radio silent this year.

Or maybe it means that eating losses isn't worth it when the sales are not really improving. They had an issue with devaluing the original Xbox One a while back.

RexNovis · Dec 5, 2016

Welfare said:
That is 1.296m. You did 1.269m.

... Whelp nvm me then. apparently Im lisdexic.

Welfare · Dec 5, 2016

RexNovis said:
... Whelp nvm me then. apparently Im lisdexic.

Haha don't worry. It gets the best of us sometimes.

hanspampel · Dec 5, 2016

StrongBlackVine said:
Or maybe it means that eating losses isn't worth it when the sales are not really improving. They had an issue with devaluing the original Xbox One a while back.

you are now the third person making that comment

what you all don't take into account:
2 of the 4 xbox one s skus are alredy sold out on amazon.com
abidel also mentioned better stockmanagement and allocation from microsoft this year.
anecdotal reports from shopper showed low shelf inventory for xbox one on blackfriday weekend

again i dont know if that is demand, supply or both. but it's definitely different from the previous years, where ms (over)stuffed the channels and all holiday bundles were still available in late Q1 the following year.

and btw. microsoft already made moves to fix this allegedly "devaluing" with the release of xbox one s. ASP increaed and pricepromotions got less heavy, while selling better

The Mad Draklor · Dec 5, 2016

hanspampel said:
you are now the third person making that comment

what you all don't take into account:
2 of the 4 xbox one s skus are alredy sold out on amazon.com
abidel also mentioned better stockmanagement and allocation from microsoft this year.
anecdotal reports from shopper showed low shelf inventory for xbox one on blackfriday weekend

again i dont know if that is demand, supply or both. but it's definitely different from the previous years, where ms (over)stuffed the channels and all holiday bundles were still available in late Q1 the following year.

and btw. microsoft already made moves to fix this allegedly "devaluing" with the release of xbox one s. ASP increaed and pricepromotions got less heavy, while selling better

2 of the 4 XB1 SKUs are sold out on Amazon, but Adobe also said that the PS4 won online for the month of November and Cyber Monday. Not excessively stuffing the channels also counts as better stock management. Abdiel mentioned that the bundles from last BF were still in stock until the summer. Anecdotal reports are also one of the least reliable ways to gauge sales because the sample size is too small and there will be a lot of variance from one story to another.

While the ASP increased, the XB1 also benefited from launches of new bundles with new games (e.g. Gears 4 bundles, Battlefield 1 bundles). The preorders that led up to those launches as well as the newness contributed to the YOY increase.

Nouzka · Dec 5, 2016

[PS4] 1290k
[XB1] 1250k
[3DS] 500k
[WIU] 100k

CosmicQueso · Dec 5, 2016

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