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June 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, July 11th

D

donny2112

Member
ITT, predict for the NPD June 2017 retail period (May 28-July 1, 2017) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined here, from jvm.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
Trust me said:
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
Click to expand...
ethomaz said:
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.
Click to expand...

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, July 11th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: May 28-July 1, 2017 (5 weeks, May was 4 weeks)
NPD Physical Release: Monday, July 17th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted on July 20th ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in June:
*E3 Excitement*
LE Gold PS4 1TB @ @$250 - June 9 (23 days)
Xbox One price drop by $50 - June 11-17 (7 days)
Arms (NSW, Nintendo possibly shipped more to support) - June 16 (16 days)

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

(May's results not public)
May's #1 predictor
Tarrin said:
[NSW] 195K
[PS4] 185K
[XB1] 102K
Click to expand...
PS4 > NSW from twitter reports, though.

May 2016 NPD thread
June 2016 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
PS4>Switch>XB1

[NSW] 210K
[PS4] 250K
[XB1] 190K


edit:
donny you're missing the gold special edition Ps4 Slim and "Days of Play promotions" as a potential hardware impact
 
T

Tarrin

Member
Didn't even realize I got first place. Nice.

Tough month. I feel like Crash would help the PS4, but it did come out at the end of the month.


[NSW] 225K
[PS4] 280K
[XB1] 180K
 
N

NSESN

Member
Donny, I am not predicting, but you forgot Arms as Hardware impacting events. We know that Nintendo shipped more units that week because of the countries that have weekly charts.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
[PS4] 277K
[NSW] 224K
[XB1] 184K

Hey, it's that time of the month again! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of May and June. This is when it is beneficial to compare weekly averages and not just simple month to month, because June is a 5 week month while May is only 4. I've also gathered software sales and potential hardware deals to give a bigger scope of how and why June performs better than May, in addition to the fact that June is when summer begins for US students.
 
Code: 
2011
 
Xbox 360 May: 270K / 4 = 67,500
Xbox 360 June: 507K / 5 = 101,400
 
Weekly average up 50%
 
PS3 May: 175K / 4 = 43,750
PS3 June: 276K / 5 = 55,200
 
Weekly average up 26%
 
[B]Notable Releases in June[/B]
 
[u]PS3[/u]
inFAMOUS 2 [4 weeks] [369,200]
 
Code: 
2012
 
Xbox 360 May: 160K / 4 = 40,000
Xbox 360 June: 257K / 5 = 51,400
 
Weekly average up 29%
 
PS3 May: 125K / 4 = 31,250
PS3 June: 188K / 5 = 37,600
 
Weekly average up 20%
 
Code: 
2013
 
Xbox 360 May: 114K / 4 = 28,500
Xbox 360 June: 140K / 5 = 28,000
 
Weekly average down 2%
 
PS3 May: 85k / 4 = 21,250
PS3 June: 109K / 5 = 21,800
 
Weekly average up 3%
 
[B]Notable Releases in June[/B]
 
[u]Xbox 360[/u]
Minecraft [5 weeks] [>350k]
 
[u]PS3[/u]
The Last of Us [4 weeks] [985,000]
 
Code: 
2014
 
Xbox 360 May: 57k / 4 = 14,250
Xbox 360 June: 62k / 5 = 12,400
 
Weekly average down 13%
 
Xbox One May: 77k / 4 = 19,250
Xbox One June: 197K / 5 = 39,400
 
Weekly average up 105%
 
PS3 May: 36k / 4 = 9,000
PS3 June: 42k / 5 = 8,400
 
Weekly average down 7%
 
PS4 May: 197K / 4 = 49,250
PS4 June: 269K / 5 = 53,800
 
Weekly average up 9%
 
[B]Notable Releases in June[/B]
 
[u]Xbox One[/u]
Kinectless SKU $399 [4 weeks] [108k]
 
EA Sports UFC [3 weeks] [118K]
 
[u]PS4[/u]
EA Sports UFC [3 weeks] [160K]
 
Code: 
2015
 
Xbox One May: 139,600 / 4 = 34,900
Xbox One June: 297K / 5 = 59,400
 
Weekly average up 70%
 
PS4 May: 152,700 / 4 = 38,175
PS4 June: 365K / 5 = 73,000
 
Weekly average up 91%
 
[B]Notable Releases in June[/B]
 
[u]Xbox One[/u]
Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards Xbox One [1 week]
 
1TB SKU $399 [3 weeks] (Debut week (week 3) drove sales +79% from week 2)
 
Batman Arkham Knight [2 weeks] / 1 free game with an Xbox One purchase [Week of Batman launch]
 
[u]PS4[/u]
Best Buy Deal - Trade in Last Gen console and get $175 towards PS4 [1 week]
 
Batman: Arkham Knight 500GB Bundle $399 [2 weeks]
Batman: Arkham Knight 500GB Limited Bundle $449 [2 weeks] [121K]
 
Batman Arkham Knight [2 weeks]
 
Code: 
2016
 
Xbox One May: 107K / 4 = 26,750
Xbox One June: 212K / 5 = 42,400
 
Weekly average up 59%
 
PS4 May: 207K / 4 = 51,750
PS4 June: 235K / 5 = 47,000
 
Weekly average down 9%
 
[B]Notable Releases in June[/B]
 
[u]Xbox One[/u]
500GB bundles $50 price cut to $299 (May 31 - June 13 - 14 days) [2 weeks]
1TB bundles $30 price cut to $369 (May 31 - June 13 - 14 days) [2 weeks]
500GB and Kinect bundles price cut to $279, 1TB bundles to $299, and Elite bundle to $349 (June 14 - July 10 - 19 days in June NPD) [3 weeks]
 
Code: 
2017 May Weekly Averages

Switch: ??? but under PS4
PS4: ~190K / 4 weeks = ~47,500
Xbox One: ~110K / 4 weeks = ~27,500

[b]Notable Events in June[/b]

[u]Switch[/u]
Supply constrained

ARMS [3 weeks]

[u]Xbox One[/u]
Xbox One X $499 announced for November 7
 
$50 price drop on select bundles / multiple $249 bundles | June 11 - June 17 (7 days)

[u]PS4[/u]
Gold 1TB PS4 $249 June 9 - June 17 (9 days) Price raise to $299 June 18
 
Crash Bandicoot N. Sane Trilogy [1 week]
 
Notes:
 
It's summertime here in the US. School's out at this point and the weekly sales average increases from May.
 
Xbox
The Xbox 360 average weekly rise from May to June is +16%, with the biggest drop being -13% (2014) and biggest rise being +50% (2011). 360 saw decreases in 2013 and 2014 but that could be thanks to the announced holiday launches of both PS4 and Xbox One (2013) and June of 2014 being after the Watch Dogs launch and plenty of stock available for both PS4 and Xbox One for the summer.
 
The Xbox One has so far had massive hardware impacting events happen every June it has been in, with the Kinectless SKU in 2014, 1TB model in 2015 (which helped move 79% more consoles in week 3 compared to week 2 https://twitter.com/aarongreenberg/status/621820362502737924), and a full month of price drops in 2016. The weekly average rise is +77% with the smallest rise being +59% (2016) and the biggest being +105% (2014). It should be noted that the percentage increase each year has decreased.
 
This year's June only had one week with an official price cut, which was the same week where the Xbox One X was announced for $499. After this week, XB1S goes back to $299/$349 except for the $249 Minecraft bundle.
 
PlayStation
The PS3 average weekly rise from May to June is +11%, with the biggest drop being -7% (2014) and biggest rise being +26% (2011). The PS3 saw a drop in 2014 because May had the 500GB Watch Dogs bundle at the end of the month.
 
The PS4 is a bit harder to pin down compared to XB1. June 2014 was pretty normal but was coming off the Watch Dogs launch in late May and had plenty of stock to not be sold out. June 2015 had the Batman bundles towards the end of the month and had the biggest increase from May for the console. June 2016 had nothing special and was coming off of the Uncharted 4 launch in May, which helped move 51k bundles during the month, so the weekly average fell. The weekly average rise is +30% with the only drop being -9% (2016) and the biggest rise being +90% (2015).
 
This June's biggest (and only) massive impact is the launch of the 1TB Gold PS4 at $249 right before E3, which then increased in price up to $299 the Sunday after E3. So that is 9 days of a price promotion.
 
Nintendo
Switch is STILL low on supply. Ugh.
 
The only real indicator for stock we have is from fellow members that happen to have specific retailer numbers and stock Nintendo is shipping to Japan for comparison.
 
Japan Media Create March 2017: 565,013
Switch NPD March 2017: 906K (+60%)
 
Japan Media Create April 2017: 212,239
Switch NPD April 2017: 280K (+32%)
 
Japan Media Create May 2017: 125,883
Switch NPD May 2017: <187K (<+48%)
 
Japan Media Create June 2017: 136,690
 
It's possible the US got more stock than usual during the month but right now we can just guess how terrible the supply problem actually is.
 
Recap
June is a better month than May in both absolute number and weekly average.
 
The biggest June ever recorded between the 7th gen was the Wii with 666,700 back in 2008. Second biggest? Xbox 360 with 507k back in 2011.
 
The biggest June ever recorded in the 8th gen is the PS4 with 364K in 2015. Second biggest? Xbox One with 296K in 2015.
 
D

donny2112

Member
NSESN said:
Donny, I am not predicting, but you forgot Arms as Hardware impacting events. We know that Nintendo shipped more units that week because of the countries that have weekly charts.
Click to expand...

Thanks! Yep, Nintendo increased shipments to support MK8DX, so they probably did the same with Arms. Added it to the notes. (^_^)
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Zok310 said:
[NSW] 220K
[PS4] 270K
[XB1] 120K

1x is gonna kill the XB1 until november
Click to expand...

This really depends on how you mean it. Because if you mean 'new customers delaying to buy the XOX" - no, not really.

With the PS4/Pro thing, the difference in cost was significantly closer in margin for the Mass Market relevance... if a potential customer *might* be willing to look at the more expensive model, and they're not already looking for the high end system, the window of pricing isn't very large for them to be swayed. A $200-$250 difference in cost between models is, as Pachter put it, an XBOS and an PS4 together.

So for our Mass Market, late-comer customers, the ones that are just getting into the console hardware at this point? The XOX isn't even really on the radar, and I have significant doubts that it will play into the factor of impacting the monthly numbers all that much for the XB side of things.

The factors hurting the XB right now have been more on the content side, as I believe I said in a previous month, that there's a deluge of new games available for one system across many genres, including genres that historically do well on XB, that are simply not coming to the XB.

There will be multiplats, and stuff like Forza later this year, but in terms of major publishers, the array of content coming to these two platforms has been very slanted so far this year, which helps create a sort of feedback loop. And when the PS4 is already ahead by a couple million here in the US, the strongest market, it can build further into that. Anything that affects the XB1S sales through the rest of this year is purely on MS's ability to position it as a strong platform for content that gets attention. I honestly feel they should be even more aggressive with their price if they want to garner more sales... But if they drop it to $199, that creates a 300 gap between the base and premium model, which can have its own problems for consumer mindset.

As with the Pro, we'll be able to handle the explanations with ease. The Ipad and Surface pro, Iphone S series, all these things have helped create an awareness of improved iterative hardware, and there's definitely been customers asking about it. But all of them are existing owners of XB1. Every single one I've spoken to.

Thoughts!

---------------------------------------------------------------------

As to the month.

Man. Nintendo is in a tough spot for this new hardware. We can't set any kind of guidelines/base for it, because it's so inconsistent. They sent us some specifically for Arms, which did pretty good as games go, but the rest of the month is a crapshoot. I don't know about other retailers, but at this point, we're seeing actual customer agitation with their inability to get the system. And it's not a cultural phenomenon yet like the Wii. These are people who will still keep looking because they genuinely want one, but they're clearly discouraged. It's rough.

Edit: Tough spot in production. It's still selling out every time, and it's doing great as a new piece of tech. Don't want to come across as down on the Switch. I'm personally waiting for there to be a couple JRPGs to get one, but then I'll dive into Zelda and such. Maybe around the holidays with Xenoblade 2? Hah.

PS4, trucking along with pretty consistent performance. Nothing really drastic altering the metrics there, and I feel like I'd have to check more districts nationwide to get a feel for exactly how many Switches we got/sold, but it felt like more PS4s went out the door. Those Gold PS4s are already out of stock, you won't even find them listed on our site anymore. Apparently people at that shit up? Haha. I thought it was pretty gaudy, but oh well.

XB1's price cut wasn't all that significant because all it did was bring a few other bundles down to a lower price, so instead of 99% of the bundles sold being the Minecraft one, we sold some others... It felt more like a Shell Game. Shifted them around, but didn't add much more to the equation. Oh well, options are good within reason.

E3 Season is always interesting, to see what the hardware companies are doing, and the publishers are doing, what's coming down the pipe.

Oh, and on a smaller note, PSVR is starting to be available more regularly, and it's still selling consistently. Helps that we've got a lot of staff who have it and can speak to it, perhaps.
 
O

onemanasylum

Banned
Abdiel said:
This really depends on how you mean it. Because if you mean 'new customers delaying to buy the XOX" - no, not really.

With the PS4/Pro thing, the difference in cost was significantly closer in margin for the Mass Market relevance... if a potential customer *might* be willing to look at the more expensive model, and they're not already looking for the high end system, the window of pricing isn't very large for them to be swayed. A $200-$250 difference in cost between models is, as Pachter put it, an XBOS and an PS4 together.

So for our Mass Market, late-comer customers, the ones that are just getting into the console hardware at this point? The XOX isn't even really on the radar, and I have significant doubts that it will play into the factor of impacting the monthly numbers all that much for the XB side of things.

The factors hurting the XB right now have been more on the content side, as I believe I said in a previous month, that there's a deluge of new games available for one system across many genres, including genres that historically do well on XB, that are simply not coming to the XB.

There will be multiplats, and stuff like Forza later this year, but in terms of major publishers, the array of content coming to these two platforms has been very slanted so far this year, which helps create a sort of feedback loop. And when the PS4 is already ahead by a couple million here in the US, the strongest market, it can build further into that. Anything that affects the XB1S sales through the rest of this year is purely on MS's ability to position it as a strong platform for content that gets attention. I honestly feel they should be even more aggressive with their price if they want to garner more sales... But if they drop it to $199, that creates a 300 gap between the base and premium model, which can have its own problems for consumer mindset.

As with the Pro, we'll be able to handle the explanations with ease. The Ipad and Surface pro, Iphone S series, all these things have helped create an awareness of improved iterative hardware, and there's definitely been customers asking about it. But all of them are existing owners of XB1. Every single one I've spoken to.

Thoughts!

---------------------------------------------------------------------

As to the month.

Man. Nintendo is in a tough spot for this new hardware. We can't set any kind of guidelines/base for it, because it's so inconsistent. They sent us some specifically for Arms, which did pretty good as games go, but the rest of the month is a crapshoot. I don't know about other retailers, but at this point, we're seeing actual customer agitation with their inability to get the system. And it's not a cultural phenomenon yet like the Wii. These are people who will still keep looking because they genuinely want one, but they're clearly discouraged. It's rough.

Edit: Tough spot in production. It's still selling out every time, and it's doing great as a new piece of tech. Don't want to come across as down on the Switch. I'm personally waiting for there to be a couple JRPGs to get one, but then I'll dive into Zelda and such. Maybe around the holidays with Xenoblade 2? Hah.

PS4, trucking along with pretty consistent performance. Nothing really drastic altering the metrics there, and I feel like I'd have to check more districts nationwide to get a feel for exactly how many Switches we got/sold, but it felt like more PS4s went out the door. Those Gold PS4s are already out of stock, you won't even find them listed on our site anymore. Apparently people at that shit up? Haha. I thought it was pretty gaudy, but oh well.

XB1's price cut wasn't all that significant because all it did was bring a few other bundles down to a lower price, so instead of 99% of the bundles sold being the Minecraft one, we sold some others... It felt more like a Shell Game. Shifted them around, but didn't add much more to the equation. Oh well, options are good within reason.

E3 Season is always interesting, to see what the hardware companies are doing, and the publishers are doing, what's coming down the pipe.

Oh, and on a smaller note, PSVR is starting to be available more regularly, and it's still selling consistently. Helps that we've got a lot of staff who have it and can speak to it, perhaps.
Click to expand...

Music to my ears.
 
mejin

mejin

Member
so, unless we have a significant price drop on XBO price those promos at $250 are pretty much useless by now. we can't consider as a notable event anymore.

Will go with a conservative estimate this time around.


[PS4] 250K
[NSW] 220K
[XB1] 150K
 
Y

Yjynx

Member
Abdiel said:
The factors hurting the XB right now have been more on the content side, as I believe I said in a previous month, that there's a deluge of new games available for one system across many genres, including genres that historically do well on XB, that are simply not coming to the XB1's price cut wasn't all that significant because all it did was bring a few other bundles down to a lower price, so instead of 99% of the bundles sold being the Minecraft one, we sold some others... It felt more like a Shell Game. Shifted them around, but didn't add much more to the equation. Oh well, options are good within reason.
Click to expand...
This is what I've been suspecting. I feel like they could permanently cut the price to $200 and it would barely move the needle.

Currently the perception of Xbox which translate to value of owning and investing in the system is very very low.

I predict xbox will be within 100k range every month until Sept/Oct month.
 
O

onemanasylum

Banned
Yjynx said:
This is what I've been suspecting. I feel like they could permanently cut the price to $200 and it would barely move the needle.

Currently the perception of Xbox which translate to value of owning and investing in the system is very very low.
Click to expand...

But exclusives don't matter right guys?........always was nonsense, they matter more then people want to believe.
 
C

Cimarron

Member
That time of the month again!!!! I just can't get excited like I used to about the NPD charts. These threads used to be glorious. The new charts are very anti console war. Oh well. Good times....
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
onemanasylum said:
But exclusives don't matter right guys?........always was nonsense, they matter more then people want to believe.
Click to expand...

They matter but people are getting Xbox and PS4s to
mostly play multiplats as game sales show. Most of these people though don't buy consoles before the Holiday season and therefore exclusives help console sales before the really huge selling months.

I would definitely say that the people that buy Xboxes and PS4s during the first half of the year are far more core gamer oriented than people that buy consoles during the last months of the year for obvious reasons. Hence part of the reason why exclusives help during these low selling months.
 
O

onemanasylum

Banned
Bgamer90 said:
They matter but people are getting Xbox and PS4s to
mostly play multiplats as game sales show. Most of these people though don't buy consoles before the Holiday season and therefore exclusives help console sales before these huge selling months.

I would definitely say that the people that buy Xboxes and PS4s during the first half of the year are far more core gamer oriented than people that buy consoles during the last months of the year for obvious reasons.
Click to expand...

Nothing you said has anything to do with what I said...third party games sell more by default..being on more systems. Exclusives are what gives a platform an identity, right now PS4 has one that is appealing because of the breadth of it's exclusives. It's no surprise PS4 sales are up and X1 way down so far in 2017..they matter quite a bit. Hell look at switch.
 
S

spekkeh

Banned
Abdiel said:
Man. Nintendo is in a tough spot for this new hardware. We can't set any kind of guidelines/base for it, because it's so inconsistent. They sent us some specifically for Arms, which did pretty good as games go, but the rest of the month is a crapshoot. I don't know about other retailers, but at this point, we're seeing actual customer agitation with their inability to get the system. And it's not a cultural phenomenon yet like the Wii. These are people who will still keep looking because they genuinely want one, but they're clearly discouraged. It's rough.
Click to expand...
Interesting. The switch search thread seems to indicate a big increase in number of switches on the market the last 1.5 weeks. A lot of people are able to find one now. You're not seeing it in your store?


onemanasylum said:
But exclusives don't matter right guys?........always was nonsense, they matter more then people want to believe.
Click to expand...
Said this from the beginning. It's the reason I switched to PS even before the Xbone introduction brouhaha. Wii sold the best of any console with no third party support. Third parties are highly overrated when it comes to console sales. Third parties sell a lot but they don't sell consoles (only the one your first adopter friends buy).
 
S

sirronoh

Member
Abdiel said:
This really depends on how you mean it. Because if you mean 'new customers delaying to buy the XOX" - no, not really.

With the PS4/Pro thing, the difference in cost was significantly closer in margin for the Mass Market relevance... if a potential customer *might* be willing to look at the more expensive model, and they're not already looking for the high end system, the window of pricing isn't very large for them to be swayed. A $200-$250 difference in cost between models is, as Pachter put it, an XBOS and an PS4 together.

So for our Mass Market, late-comer customers, the ones that are just getting into the console hardware at this point? The XOX isn't even really on the radar, and I have significant doubts that it will play into the factor of impacting the monthly numbers all that much for the XB side of things.

The factors hurting the XB right now have been more on the content side, as I believe I said in a previous month, that there's a deluge of new games available for one system across many genres, including genres that historically do well on XB, that are simply not coming to the XB.

There will be multiplats, and stuff like Forza later this year, but in terms of major publishers, the array of content coming to these two platforms has been very slanted so far this year, which helps create a sort of feedback loop. And when the PS4 is already ahead by a couple million here in the US, the strongest market, it can build further into that. Anything that affects the XB1S sales through the rest of this year is purely on MS's ability to position it as a strong platform for content that gets attention. I honestly feel they should be even more aggressive with their price if they want to garner more sales... But if they drop it to $199, that creates a 300 gap between the base and premium model, which can have its own problems for consumer mindset.

As with the Pro, we'll be able to handle the explanations with ease. The Ipad and Surface pro, Iphone S series, all these things have helped create an awareness of improved iterative hardware, and there's definitely been customers asking about it. But all of them are existing owners of XB1. Every single one I've spoken to.

Thoughts!

---------------------------------------------------------------------

As to the month.

Man. Nintendo is in a tough spot for this new hardware. We can't set any kind of guidelines/base for it, because it's so inconsistent. They sent us some specifically for Arms, which did pretty good as games go, but the rest of the month is a crapshoot. I don't know about other retailers, but at this point, we're seeing actual customer agitation with their inability to get the system. And it's not a cultural phenomenon yet like the Wii. These are people who will still keep looking because they genuinely want one, but they're clearly discouraged. It's rough.

Edit: Tough spot in production. It's still selling out every time, and it's doing great as a new piece of tech. Don't want to come across as down on the Switch. I'm personally waiting for there to be a couple JRPGs to get one, but then I'll dive into Zelda and such. Maybe around the holidays with Xenoblade 2? Hah.

PS4, trucking along with pretty consistent performance. Nothing really drastic altering the metrics there, and I feel like I'd have to check more districts nationwide to get a feel for exactly how many Switches we got/sold, but it felt like more PS4s went out the door. Those Gold PS4s are already out of stock, you won't even find them listed on our site anymore. Apparently people at that shit up? Haha. I thought it was pretty gaudy, but oh well.

XB1's price cut wasn't all that significant because all it did was bring a few other bundles down to a lower price, so instead of 99% of the bundles sold being the Minecraft one, we sold some others... It felt more like a Shell Game. Shifted them around, but didn't add much more to the equation. Oh well, options are good within reason.

E3 Season is always interesting, to see what the hardware companies are doing, and the publishers are doing, what's coming down the pipe.

Oh, and on a smaller note, PSVR is starting to be available more regularly, and it's still selling consistently. Helps that we've got a lot of staff who have it and can speak to it, perhaps.
Click to expand...

Thank you Abdiel!

Not surprised by the bolded at all. We're in the 4th calendar year of PS4 and Xbox. For the average consumer just now looking to purchase an Xbox One, a consumer who didn't purchase an Xbox One for any of the notable releases this year or in any of the prior years, if they're just now deciding to purchase an Xbox One, why wait for several months to pay $250 to $300 more for an Xbox One that plays the same games they can play now?

No, Xbox One sales between now and November, as they have been throughout 2017, will be low due to lack of compelling content, not because there's a wave of new customers waiting to purchase the high-end model. The consumers in the market for the Xbox One X will largely be existing Xbox One owners.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
onemanasylum said:
Nothing you said has anything to do with what I said...
Click to expand...

??? -- It does. I was agreeing with you saying they mattered.

third party games sell more by default..being on more systems.
Click to expand...

They are at the top when looking at PS4 only and Xbox only. The games are from popular series.

Exclusives are what gives a platform an identity, right now PS4 has one that is appealing because of the breadth of it's exclusives. It's no surprise PS4 sales are up and X1 way down so far in 2017..they matter quite a bit. Hell look at switch.
Click to expand...

Yes -- I said that exclusives matter during the low selling console months for similar reasons you've stated. They give a console attention before the major Holiday months. And yeah, they matter for Switch as there wouldn't really be any games on the system if it weren't for exclusives.

_________________________

spekkeh said:
Said this from the beginning. It's the reason I switched to PS even before the Xbone introduction brouhaha. Wii sold the best of any console with no third party support. Third parties are highly overrated when it comes to console sales. Third parties sell a lot but they don't sell consoles (only the one your first adopter friends buy).
Click to expand...

??? -- There would be no point in Sony and Microsoft constantly getting marketing/bundle deals with third party games if that were true.
 
O

Obliterator

Member
I will echo the deluge of quality exclusive software for fhe PS4 is having a noticeable impact at this point in moving hardware.

I don't think MS can continue this strategy of low amounts of exclusive software for much longer.
 
G

gundamkyoukai

Member
Bgamer90 said:
They matter but people are getting Xbox and PS4s to
mostly play multiplats as game sales show. Most of these people though don't buy consoles before the Holiday season and therefore exclusives help console sales before the really huge selling months.

I would definitely say that the people that buy Xboxes and PS4s during the first half of the year are far more core gamer oriented than people that buy consoles during the last months of the year for obvious reasons. Hence part of the reason why exclusives help during these low selling months.
Click to expand...

Exclusives help at any time of the year .
They just don't disappear because people buy there system at years end .
Most companies used them to help there year end bundles.
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
onemanasylum said:
Nothing you said has anything to do with what I said...third party games sell more by default..being on more systems. Exclusives are what gives a platform an identity, right now PS4 has one that is appealing because of the breadth of it's exclusives. It's no surprise PS4 sales are up and X1 way down so far in 2017..they matter quite a bit. Hell look at switch.
Click to expand...

first of all we don't have exact numbers, so this are just Neogaf crunch numbers
but here are the 2017 YoY estimates so far

2016 Jan - May
Ps4: 1394k
Xb1: 894k

2017 Jan - May
Ps4 ~1430k (up 2.6% YoY)
Xb1: ~870k (down 2.7% YoY)


so your statement is pretty much wrong

onemanasylum said:
Ps4 up...X1 down...how is what i said wrong? It is exaggerated sure, but it is dead right.
Click to expand...
both are sub 3% change
that is more consideres being flat YoY
definitely not "way down" in any definition

and when you talk about WW sales in a NPD topic, you should state that in the first place
people obviously assume US
 
O

onemanasylum

Banned
spekkeh said:
Interesting. The switch search thread seems to indicate a big increase in number of switches on the market the last 1.5 weeks. A lot of people are able to find one now. You're not seeing it in your store?



Said this from the beginning. It's the reason I switched to PS even before the Xbone introduction brouhaha. Wii sold the best of any console with no third party support. Third parties are highly overrated when it comes to console sales. Third parties sell a lot but they don't sell consoles (only the one your first adopter friends buy).
Click to expand...

People always neglect the momentum from the later ps3 years into the PS4...Ps4 was goona do well regardless.

hanspampel said:
first of all we don't have exact numbers, so this are just Neogaf crunch numbers
but here are the 2017 YoY estimates so far

2016 Jan - May
Ps4: 1394k
Xb1: 894k

2017 Jan - May
Ps4 ~1430k (up 2.5% YoY)
Xb1: ~870k (down 6% YoY)


so you statement is pretty much wrong
Click to expand...

Ps4 up...X1 down...how is what i said wrong? It is exaggerated sure, but it is dead right. Your statement that I was wrong is pretty much wrong. These are also estimates and I was talking not just US, yes a discussion can still use WW for context in an NPD thread.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
sirronoh said:
Thank you Abdiel!

Not surprised by the bolded at all. We're in the 4th calendar year of PS4 and Xbox. For the average consumer just now looking to purchase an Xbox One, a consumer who didn't purchase an Xbox One for any of the notable releases this year or in any of the prior years, if they're just now deciding to purchase an Xbox One, why wait for several months to pay $250 to $300 more for an Xbox One that plays the same games they can play now?

No, Xbox One sales between now and November, as they have been throughout 2017, will be low due to lack of compelling content, not because there's a wave of new customers waiting to purchase the high-end model. The consumers in the market for the Xbox One X will largely be existing Xbox One owners.
Click to expand...

August and September may be pretty solid months for the Xbox One due to Madden 18 (inevitable bundle based on every year this gen so far) and Destiny 2 respectively (especially if they do the free game deal again to compete with a bundle) but yes -- the people buying the Xbox One X will mainly be existing Xbox One owners. The price and branding isn't appaealing enough for the crowd that still hasn't bought a current gen system yet.

It seems that many at MS wanted it this way based on their constant statements about them knowing the Xbox One X will more than likely have low sells but it still seems strange to me to spend so much time on a product that more than likely won't do very well once 2018 starts. Seems that they are happy making money from their existing Xbox user base and simply growing from there via more digital services.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
gundamkyoukai said:
Exclusives help at any time of the year .
They just don't disappear because people buy there system at years end .
Most companies used them to help there year end bundles.
Click to expand...

I would say that exclusives don't help as much during the Holiday season since at that time the AAA multiplats are getting the most attention/spotlight.

Sony's schedule of releasing major new IP exclusives during the first half of the year and then slowing them down a bit during the Holiday season is a much better/logical spread vs. Microsoft saving new exclusive IPs for the Holiday season and putting them up alongside AAA multiplats in my opinion.
 
Unknown?

Unknown?

Member
gundamkyoukai said:
Exclusives help at any time of the year .
They just don't disappear because people buy there system at years end .
Most companies used them to help there year end bundles.
Click to expand...
Exactly. New console owners may be buying it for a big AAA third party game but the exclusives leading up to and after create mindshare and those owners will likely go back and look at the exclusives they missed out on that are now cheaper.
 
S

sirronoh

Member
Bgamer90 said:
August and September may be pretty solid months for the Xbox One due to Madden 18 (inevitable bundle based on every year this gen so far) and Destiny 2 respectively (especially if they do the free game deal again to compete with a bundle) but yes -- the people buying the Xbox One X will mainly be existing Xbox One owners. The price and branding isn't appaealing enough for the crowd that still hasn't bought a current gen system yet.

It seems that many at MS wanted it this way based on their constant statements about them knowing the Xbox One X will more than likely have low sells but it still seems strange to me to spend so much time on a product that more than likely won't do very well once 2018 starts. Seems that they are happy making money from their existing Xbox user base and simply growing from there via more digital services.
Click to expand...

Completely agree and I've noticed that as well. It seems like Microsoft is content on giving existing Xbox One users as many bells and whistles as possible to keep them spending in their ecosystem and spending more while they're there.

This is all good and fine in terms of strategy in a vacuum but Microsoft doesn't exist in a vacuum - they exist in a world with Sony and Nintendo and gaming PCs whose potential markets heavily overlap with Microsoft's.

Play Anywhere, for example, is a great convenience for existing Xbox One users and it encourages them to continue spending in the Microsoft ecosystem. With existing Xbox One users, this is a good strategy. However, I would argue that Play Anywhere is a bad long-term strategy when it comes to non-Xbox One users. With PS4 users for example, if they see a new game they are interested in that doesn't come to PS4 and only to Xbox, they can either buy an Xbox One or they can simply purchase the game through the Windows 10 store. Both of these options earn Microsoft money but one of them cost significantly less for the user than the other, and likely sends less revenue back to Microsoft. So for consumers who have the purchasing power and the intent, this is potential loss revenue.

Now at this point, some might argue well at least Microsoft earns some revenue compared to not earning any revenue at all. This is certainly true. However, it's still potentially keeping PS4 owners from buying an Xbox One, which isn't a total loss but that does comes with its own set of problems.

First, I'm willing to bet Microsoft earns more long-term revenue per Xbox One user than they do per Windows 10 store user for a whole host of reasons (even taking into account the short time Play Anywhere has been available) that, for the sake of time, I won't get into here. My point though, is that I think Microsoft would prefer to get new users into the Xbox One ecosystem via the console rather than the Windows 10 store.

Second, purchasing an Xbox One console is the first step towards getting introduced and familiar with the Xbox ecosystem. Being familiar with the ecosystem can potentially lead to preferring the ecosystem. Preferring the ecosystem is the kind of scenario that can lead to switching primary consoles, which is particularly beneficial for the momentum of platform holders leading into a new generation.

Play Anywhere is a direct barrier to this scenario and it comes down to this gamble: Microsoft is betting that revenue generated from consumers through Play Anywhere purchases in the Windows 10 store makes up for revenue lost from consumers who would otherwise purchase the hardware to get to the software plus potential revenue generated from future sign ups to subscription services.

Personally, I think this is a gamble Microsoft is going to lose long-term because again, they don't exist in a vacuum. To new and existing console owners, they can get everything they want that appears on Xbox on PS4 and (sometimes) Switch plus all of the unique content that comes to those platforms that doesn't come to Xbox. For the few titles that are missing, they can get them through the Windows 10 store if need be (or in some cases on Steam).

Therefore, to circle back to your original point, their current strategy is confusing. The Xbox One X initiative is supposed to give gamers a reason to stay with Xbox yet they have other very real initiatives that give gamers a reason not to stay with Xbox -- not to mention PC gaming is still a thing, PS4 is growing their lead every month in all major markets and worldwide, and there's a possibility Switch may take the place of Xbox as a second console to many PS4 owners, which wasn't a worry at the beginning of this gen with WiiU.

The future of Xbox is as confusing as ever.
 
O

onemanasylum

Banned
sirronoh said:
Completely agree and I've noticed that as well. It seems like Microsoft is content on giving existing Xbox One users as many bells and whistles as possible to keep them spending in their ecosystem and spending more while they're there.

This is all good and fine in terms of strategy in a vacuum but Microsoft doesn't exist in a vacuum - they exist in a world with Sony and Nintendo and gaming PCs whose potential markets heavily overlap with Microsoft's.

Play Anywhere, for example, is a great convenience for existing Xbox One users and it encourages them to continue spending in the Microsoft ecosystem. With existing Xbox One users, this is a good strategy. However, I would argue that Play Anywhere is a bad long-term strategy when it comes to non-Xbox One users. With PS4 users for example, if they see a new game they are interested in that doesn't come to PS4 and only to Xbox, they can either buy an Xbox One or they can simply purchase the game through the Windows 10 store. Both of these options earn Microsoft money but one of them cost significantly less for the user than the other, and likely sends less revenue back to Microsoft. So for consumers who have the purchasing power and the intent, this is potential loss revenue.

Now at this point, some might argue well at least Microsoft earns some revenue compared to not earning any revenue at all. This is certainly true. However, it's still potentially keeping PS4 owners from buying an Xbox One, which isn't a total loss but that does comes with its own set of problems.

First, I'm willing to bet Microsoft earns more long-term revenue per Xbox One user than they do per Windows 10 store user for a whole host of reasons (even taking into account the short time Play Anywhere has been available) that, for the sake of time, I won't get into here. My point though, is that I think Microsoft would prefer to get new users into the Xbox One ecosystem via the console rather than the Windows 10 store.

Second, purchasing an Xbox One console is the first step towards getting introduced and familiar with the Xbox ecosystem. Being familiar with the ecosystem can potentially lead to preferring the ecosystem. Preferring the ecosystem is the kind of scenario that can lead to switching primary consoles, which is particularly beneficial for the momentum of platform holders leading into a new generation.

Play Anywhere is a direct barrier to this scenario and it comes down to this gamble: Microsoft is betting that revenue generated from consumers through Play Anywhere purchases in the Windows 10 store makes up for revenue lost from consumers who would otherwise purchase the hardware to get to the software plus potential revenue generated from future sign ups to subscription services.

Personally, I think this is a gamble Microsoft is going to lose long-term because again, they don't exist in a vacuum. To new and existing console owners, they can get everything they want that appears on Xbox on PS4 and (sometimes) Switch plus all of the unique content that comes to those platforms that doesn't come to Xbox. For the few titles that are missing, they can get them through the Windows 10 store if need be (or in some cases on Steam).

Therefore, to circle back to your original point, their current strategy is confusing. The Xbox One X initiative is supposed to give gamers a reason to stay with Xbox yet they have other very real initiatives that give gamers a reason not to stay with Xbox -- not to mention PC gaming is still a thing, PS4 is growing their lead every month in all major markets and worldwide, and there's a possibility Switch may take the place of Xbox as a second console to many PS4 owners, which wasn't a worry at the beginning of this gen with WiiU.

The future of Xbox is as confusing as ever.
Click to expand...

Exactly...it is Ok to try and keep your existing customers happy, duh, all companies try to, but like yuo said they are not in a vacumn, when gamers see their ps4 friends talking about horizon, Nioh, persona, MLB the show, Nier, just this quarter etc... that is just more incentive for someone to make the jump. "True 4K" is not going to help them at all. Just like the UHD player was overblown, although I do wish sony included it, but it's not much of a factor overall.

The you have their PC efforts which have been worse then Xbox one reveal. PC gamers are not going to leave steam for a couple MS franchises that were never very b ig on PC anyway. They are in a bad spot gaming wise. Don't think the higher ups at MS are too concerned though..Ms ain't hurting for cash.
 
J

jroc74

Phone reception is more important to me than human rights
spekkeh said:
Wii sold the best of any console with no third party support. Third parties are highly overrated when it comes to console sales.
Click to expand...

Wii did have 3rd party support. Some of the best Wii games were 3rd party exclusive.

For the 2nd sentence, GTA V alone is proof that's not entirely accurate.

Some of the biggest PS4 bundle sales were 3rd party bundles.
 
O

onemanasylum

Banned
hanspampel said:
first of all we don't have exact numbers, so this are just Neogaf crunch numbers
but here are the 2017 YoY estimates so far

2016 Jan - May
Ps4: 1394k
Xb1: 894k

2017 Jan - May
Ps4 ~1430k (up 2.6% YoY)
Xb1: ~870k (down 2.7% YoY)


so your statement is pretty much wrong


both are sub 3% change
that is more consideres being flat YoY
definitely not "way down" in any definition

and when you talk about WW sales in a NPD topic, you should state that in the first place
people obviously assume US
Click to expand...

X1 is down, PS4 is up...what i said was correct, I am not interested in arguing over semantics over the words "Way Down" what i said was accurate, not "wrong", and again these are estimates. I figured it was pretty clear I was talking overall, not just US but whatever, semantics. Also keep in mind, this is the X1S so compared to what it was doing last year it is indeed way down. The X1S was doing very well last year to a point they won 4 NPD's in a row.
 
H

hanspampel

Banned
onemanasylum said:
snip
Click to expand...
Lol
So why are you arguing over semantics when you don't (want to) do that?
And yes those are just estimates so Ps4 could also be down YoY while Xb1 is up YoY. Does not even need 50k units in difference for each console over the span of 5 months.


But yeah sure you're right.
Ps4 is up YoY while Xb1 is way down. Whatever reality makes you feel better.
For us other people, nothing major has changed in the sales for Ps4 and Xb1 so far in the US.
Ps4 is performing slightly better than 2016 and Xb1 slightly worse than 2016.
But way to insignificant to call it a change in sales pattern, yet.

up to April 2017:
ILd3Cua.png
 
Humdinger

Humdinger

Member
I don't really have any idea, but I threw a prediction in there, just because I figure, the more predictions we have, the better chance we have of getting accurate estimates.
 
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