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WSJ: Sony Earnings: What to Watch
- Thread starter ggx2ac
- Start date
PS4 maintained its MSRP for an absurdly long time. It's hard to say what will happen if they feel like they can sell a decent amount of consoles and keep that $50 for themselves.
I don't know. Zelda, Mario Kart, Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2 and ARMS is basically ringing the dinner bell for Nintendo fans and looks enticing enough for any existing PS4/Xbox owners who want a second console. I wouldn't be shocked if Switch ended up on top for 2017. That's assuming Sony doesn't go for the jugular with any type of $199 bundle.
UpUpDownDown
Member
Yep.
A serious price drop would move an insane amount of consoles. They've been super stingy with the PS4s price this gen.
Aceofspades
Banned
When to expect those earnings statement?
Unknown?
Member
Switch will more likely eat into Xbox sells than PS4, imo. PS4 also has a killer lineup this year and has had an unprecedented start so far to where this year might be remembered along with 2004/1998. Maybe not up with them but darn close.
DriftingSpirit
Member
This Friday.
Sangetsu-II
Member
I think 2018 will probably be PS4 peak year. Sony really has a lot of games without dates probably pushing 2018.
I think it's because PS4 has already captured so much of the market that is going to stall demand. Not sure if it has peaked yet but it's certainly gotta be near the top of that bell curve in sales. I mean they're probably on track for around 100 million lifetime give or take but they've already sold around 60 million of that. It's been 4 years, sales are slowing down regardless of the competition but I'm sure that doesn't help.
DriftingSpirit
Member
Right, natural slowdown is fine. I'm just talking about the idea that Switch and Scorpio are going to notably harm PS4 demand.
Unknown?
Member
You know people will claim it! It's inevitable that people look at one specific piece of data and ignore the rest. Just like how people said the PS4 Slim needed saving because it wasn't #1 in the US. Rofl
Peak without their heavy hitters?
Assuming none of them are delayed, Destiny 2, RDR2, Battlefront 2 and COD:WW2 are more likely to have a larger effect on console sales.
The Last One
Member
There's also GT Sports and maybe Spiderman.
I think GT will only have an effect in Europe. I'm not sure if Spiderman will make it this year but I hope it does.
DriftingSpirit
Member
I'm sure it will happen again the end of this year. I think people just don't fully understand how potent Sony's worldwide market is.
I think they still have people to attract. Sony has two consoles over 100M+ and their worst console is somewhere in the upper 80M range. PS4 will join those ranks.
ChronotriggerJM
Member
The PS2 was an absolute beast with the casual market. If Sony can get it to that $200 price point, they can bundle for days. If I remember correctly, there were some very friendly family bundles with the PS2.
Agreed.
But PS4 could see the blockbuster trifecta of God of War, Spider Man and The Last of Us 2 in 2018. Then there is also Final Fantasy VII Remake, that should be ready by 2018's holiday hopefully. All of these are PS4 exclusives (in the case of Remake it is a "first on", but it doesnt matter because they will market it as exclusive).
I do think TLOU2 is 2019 though...
Edit: just to be clear though, I agree 2017 will be the peak year. $199 bundles of Destiny 2/Battlefront 2/WW2 will be insane!
wapplew
Member
They don't make Knack 2 for no reason.
DarkLordMalik
Member
Looking forward to the PS4 Portable this year.
If anything, that number will only increase.
LiquidSolid
Member
The PS4 is obviously going to hit its peak at some point, personally I think that's going to be this year, but I find it hard to believe how you could seriously argue it'll only sell ~100m lifetime. If we assume the PS5 is coming out in 2019/20 then that means the PS4 still has another 3-4 years left as what is essentially the default console. You really think it's only going to sell 40m in that period? And that's not even taking into account whether it has a long tail or not.
lol, talk about over inflating your own importance.
You might be looking at things from your own bubble there.
As long as online multiplayer requires PS+ subscribtions, the number of subscribers will probably still continue to rise for a while.
Keep pushing into EMEA region.
Getting up to 60%+ console share market will do more wonders for future Playstation systems with the brand even further cemented globally.
A lot of countries in EMEA have experienced rising incomes and better lifestyles, providing more money to be spent on entertainment.
I tend to agree that unless Microsoft surprises with the games at E3, the Scorpio launch may get overshadowed. Switch is going to be riding a lot of momentum heading into the holidays and that's when the Zelda expansion, Mario, and the rumored Pokemon Stars drop.
yurinka
Member
PS4 peaking? No way.
This year we saw Uncharted 4 or Horizon, but some of the biggest franchises like GT, GTA, Last of Us or God of War still have to debut with new games, and soonish we'll see other huge hits like FFVII remake, RDR2 the new AC and many others.
The console is still selling really well and is over $200, where if I don't mistake traditionally there is the typical console sales peak.
Regarding Switch and Scorpio, they won't affect PS4 sales unless sold way cheaper. Switch debuted with less than 3M which is ok, but PS4 sold 57M in a bit more than 3 years, which is insane.
This year we saw Uncharted 4 or Horizon, but some of the biggest franchises like GT, GTA, Last of Us or God of War still have to debut with new games, and soonish we'll see other huge hits like FFVII remake, RDR2 the new AC and many others.
The console is still selling really well and is over $200, where if I don't mistake traditionally there is the typical console sales peak.
Regarding Switch and Scorpio, they won't affect PS4 sales unless sold way cheaper. Switch debuted with less than 3M which is ok, but PS4 sold 57M in a bit more than 3 years, which is insane.
AquaWateria
Member
I mean you gotta realize that Switch did it during march.
yurinka
Member
Yep. Only almost a month, but more than 50M late.
Now that the hardware is there, it's time for software and price cuts in the coming years until they release the next generation in 2020 or so.
Considering PS360 sold around 180M combined, if PS4+XBO is around 90M, there should be like 70M (let's count a small percentage of people who bought both consoles or their console twice) console players who still have to jump to the next generation. Let's say PS4 can aim to get 50M additional units sold from there, since some won't upgrade or may go to XBO, PC, mobile or even Switch.
The console is still over $200, which is too expensive for the family, more casual market in western countries and for some not-so-rich countries where consoles are proportionally way more expensive for them due to salaries or taxes. That I assume may be an important part of these around 70M-90M who still didn't jump to the next gen.
So in the coming years they should need continue releasing top quality stuff to convince console games to upgrade to next gen, start releasing more casual/family oriented games and to cut the price to $199.
In addition to this, as secondary actions they may also improve their product with additional stuff (PS1+PSP/Vita TV games & 4K BluRay maybe?) and to increase the markets of the existing services (PSNow being released in Sonyland countries like Spain and supporting new devices -maybe a multiplatform web based version- and PS2+PSP+Vita+PS4 games), addressing the quality of PS Plus games, etc.
DriftingSpirit
Member
lol, go sit down.
hanspampel
Banned
Only in the US
In some parts of Europe 199 is already a bad expensive price point
AnthonypUK
Member
huh? they're going to have to ship alot more then their forecast to even come close to the PS4 in 2017.
FullMetaltech
Member
I agree. Come Sept for Destiny 2 and Call of Duty in Nov., Sony will be moving alot of PS4s for sure.
Sales are still going up as of today.
But main thing for Sony is overall sales, which PSN revenue brings up constantly.
As well as performance of other divisions, which is also going better and better. So two years for Sony over $2billion in operating profit is awesome for them.
Magic Mushroom
Member
Free games is just one perk. Like cloud storage and discounts. But the main reason people buy Plus is to play online. With titles like CoD WWII and Destiny 2 on the way, that number will only increase.
$199 bundle for Black Friday (HZD if they play it smart), and basically a huge coverage to sweep both super price sensitive families that haven't bought into next gen yet and people looking for a 2nd console.
End of year will be all out I think between RDR2 & COD WW2 marketing, very likely Destiny 2 and Battlefront 2 bundles, and exclusives like GTS, a family type title like Dreams or 3rd party + I think at least 1 other (imo GoW).
ethomaz
Banned
Wut?
There is no heavy hitters bigger than 2017 releases... at least I can't think about any other year with bigger releases for hardware sales... plus $199 BF PS4 bundles.
GTS, Destiny 2, RDR2, Battlefront 2 and COD:WW2.
People use plus for multiplayer at this point, not free games
Oh shit
Sony is forecasting 18 million PS4 units next FY, down from 20 million the previous year.
Looks like Sony hit their 20 million PS4 target for the fiscal year. That is huge
1st Course
Member
2.9m PS4s sold last quarter (up from 2.3m in FY15 Q4).
Ravage_Hydra
Member
Dont understand that report but found this on another site
Not sure if that site is ban here so i wont post the link
Not sure if that site is ban here so i wont post the link