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UK General Election - 8th June 2017 |OT| - The Red Wedding

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L

Lagamorph

Member
Unfortunately it's a lose-lose situation whether the Conservatives or Labour win.

Corbyn has a complete hard-on for Hard Brexit (ending Freedom of Movement is in the Labour manifesto, which is an automatic hard Brexit) which seems to be the main commonality between the two parties. Unfortunately it's also by far the most damaging thing either of them could do to the country as a whole and completely overshadows pretty much anything that sets them apart.

The Tories then have their continuing May style fascism on the go, whilst Corbyn wants to go anti-business and basically push away any businesses that might have had a reason to stay post-Brexit, even further damaging what will already be an incredibly fragile economy.
 
T

travisbickle

Member
Lagamorph said:
Unfortunately it's a lose-lose situation whether the Conservatives or Labour win.

Corbyn has a complete hard-on for Hard Brexit (ending Freedom of Movement is in the Labour manifesto, which is an automatic hard Brexit) which seems to be the main commonality between the two parties. Unfortunately it's also by far the most damaging thing either of them could do to the country as a whole and completely overshadows pretty much anything that sets them apart.

The Tories then have their continuing May style fascism on the go, whilst Corbyn wants to go anti-business and basically push away any businesses that might have had a reason to stay post-Brexit, even further damaging what will already be an incredibly fragile economy.
Click to expand...


Mate, freedom of movement will end when the UK leaves the EU. There's no such thing as hard or soft Brexit, that rhetoric's pulled out of May's arse.

What matters now is the new immigration rules after leaving the EU.
 
M

Mr. Sam

Member
One could theoretically be outside the EU and subscribe to freedom of movement. However, not if one actually wanted to win an election. That's the sad truth.
 
L

Lagamorph

Member
travisbickle said:
Mate, freedom of movement will end when the UK leaves the EU. There's no such thing as hard or soft Brexit, that rhetoric's pulled out of May's arse.

What matters now is the new immigration rules after leaving the EU.
Click to expand...

There are four countries outside of the EU itself which have Freedom of Movement with the EU.
 
Theonik

Theonik

Member
Lagamorph said:
There are four countries outside of the EU itself which have Freedom of Movement with the EU.
Click to expand...
After several years of negotiating their present arrangements.
Labour's stances on the matter is to prioritise trade over immigration policy. And they are committed to guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens.
 
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travisbickle

Member
Lagamorph said:
There are four countries outside of the EU itself which have Freedom of Movement with the EU.
Click to expand...


Wouldn't't the UK have to reapply for that after leaving the EU?

I thought we had realised, before May decided Brexit isn't that important and the UK should have an election, that we have to leave and then renegotiate everything. And looking in the Labour manifesto, it appears to say that they won't scapegoat immigrants in the renegotiations.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Maledict said:
how many are at sea!
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One is always at sea, one is always under maintenance, and the other two are used as training copies for the first two which is a polite way of saying we can't afford to operate more than one at the same time. Otherwise, I largely agree, although I do think we can move away from Trident as the delivery method.
 
W

WhateverItTakes

Banned
Lagamorph said:
Unfortunately it's a lose-lose situation whether the Conservatives or Labour win.

Corbyn has a complete hard-on for Hard Brexit (ending Freedom of Movement is in the Labour manifesto, which is an automatic hard Brexit) which seems to be the main commonality between the two parties. Unfortunately it's also by far the most damaging thing either of them could do to the country as a whole and completely overshadows pretty much anything that sets them apart.

The Tories then have their continuing May style fascism on the go, whilst Corbyn wants to go anti-business and basically push away any businesses that might have had a reason to stay post-Brexit, even further damaging what will already be an incredibly fragile economy.
Click to expand...

Brexit was always gonna fuck us, at least with a slimmer majority it might be harder for the Tories to directly fuck public services.
 
W

Wrestlemania

Banned
Another silver lining of them winning by a slim majority would be that it does put a Labour win in the next election in the realm of possibility, which is not something that seemed possible when it looked very likely that the outcome of this election was a gigantic Tory majority.
 
Q

QuicheFontaine

Member
Up at my parents for the bank holiday weekend (I'm doing the Manchester 10k tomorrow), and last night they were saying how they were concerned about this dementia tax. They didn't seem to know any of the details about it, just that it sounded bad. Maybe an average reaction for middle class voters in their 60s? That Tory manifesto launch was a disaster for them.
 
W

WhatNXt

Member
QuicheFontaine said:
Up at my parents for the bank holiday weekend (I'm doing the Manchester 10k tomorrow), and last night they were saying how they were concerned about this dementia tax. They didn't seem to know any of the details about it, just that it sounded bad. Maybe an average reaction for middle class voters in their 60s? That Tory manifesto launch was a disaster for them.
Click to expand...

I have a cousin whose mother is now in a home because of her dementia, while his father still resides in their family home. It poses all kinds of uncertainty for people like them. His father isn't well, but he's well enough to continue living in their home, with help and support from family. Who pays for her care, what proportion of their home / assets will the government try to pickpocket from their grave? I know there's going to be a green paper, I'm just illustrating how it makes people think.

Awful awful policy announcement, which understandably worries people.
 
L

Lagamorph

Member
Theonik said:
After several years of negotiating their present arrangements.
Labour's stances on the matter is to prioritise trade over immigration policy. And they are committed to guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens.
Click to expand...
They want to much more heavily tax businesses that would then have every reason to just up sticks and leave the UK entirely. We can't do much trade if a good chunk of our economy leaves.
I'm all for companies paying their fair share but it's a delicate balancing act at the best of times. At a time when you desperately need to give companies an incentive to stay in the UK it's incredibly short sighted to just say "Increase tax on large businesses" without thinking it through just to gain public support. People baulk at the idea of the UK becoming a tax haven, but in the long run it's better to have a little of something than nothing at all.


travisbickle said:
Wouldn't't the UK have to reapply for that after leaving the EU?

I thought we had realised, before May decided Brexit isn't that important and the UK should have an election, that we have to leave and then renegotiate everything. And looking in the Labour manifesto, it appears to say that they won't scapegoat immigrants in the renegotiations.
Click to expand...
Renegotiate things yes, but we've got two years in which to do that. And agreeing to Freedom of Movement in exchange for access to the single market would be a fairly quick and easy negotiation within that timeframe that also buys time for more complex negotiations whilst keeping the economy stable.
Labour are saying that about existing immigrants, but they still want to scrap Freedom of Movement which basically locks the UK out of the single market entirely, and it's that which is going to cause the greatest damage to the UK in the short, medium and long terms.


Whoever wins this election, the UK loses. Unless it's the Lib Dems, but that sadly won't happen.
 
D

Doctor_Thomas

Member
Crab said:
One is always at sea, one is always under maintenance, and the other two are used as training copies for the first two which is a polite way of saying we can't afford to operate more than one at the same time. Otherwise, I largely agree, although I do think we can move away from Trident as the delivery method.
Click to expand...

In addition to that, one of the the first acts of each new PM is to write four letters, one to each commander of each sub, which are kept under lock and key and only to be opened in the event of the Government being destroyed. These instructions are personal to each PM and can be anything from a retaliation strike to joining the US fleet and waiting further instruction and the letters to each can be the same or be different.
 
M

mo60

Member
Wrestlemania said:
Another silver lining of them winning by a slim majority would be that it does put a Labour win in the next election in the realm of possibility, which is not something that seemed possible when it looked very likely that the outcome of this election was a gigantic Tory majority.
Click to expand...

It wasn't impossible for labour to win the next election if they got crushed in a massive landslide in this one by the tories.The tories coalition was still going to be the brexit coalition if they won this election in a massive landslide.If brexit ended up being a diaster they would have lost over 100 seats in the 2022 election.Blair's winning coalition was way stronger and it took 13 years to get rid of his majority because he did not win his massive majorities just on one issue.Like if the tories got 413 seats in this election I would have expect them to at least lose a quarter to a third of that in 2022 if brexit turned out to be a disaster.
 
I

IpKaiFung

Member
the skilled workers and single market access reasons are fair enough but why is the rate of taxation a key point when it's higher in most EU countries.
 
L

Lagamorph

Member
IpKaiFung said:
the skilled workers and single market access reasons are fair enough but why is the rate of taxation a key point when it's higher in most EU countries.
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It's not though. The EU average is 21.51, it's right there on your own link. Even taking the UK 19% rate out of that isn't going to catapult the average to over 26%.

If you look at Germany the 29.79% figure is only an average of the country. In some regions it's as low as 22.83%.
 
C

Cabaratier

Neo Member
Are there any real life examples of companies moving their operations (not just headquarters or mailbox location), because of change in the tax regime of a big, rich, industrial country? I always wonder how realistic that threat is. Even now, with the UK government acting as they are and the UK really leaving the EU, you still don't see companies picking up and leaving. Banks are mostly moving some people and operations away so far.
 
D

Dougald

Member
Don't most big companies end up taking advantage of the system in order to pay most of their tax in places with lower tax rates anyway? A few years ago I met a bloke whose entire job was to do that sort of thing

I am pretty ignorant about the system though
 
C

Cabaratier

Neo Member
Dougald said:
Don't most big companies end up taking advantage of the system in order to pay most of their tax in places with lower tax rates anyway? A few years ago I met a bloke whose entire job was to do that sort of thing

I am pretty ignorant about the system though
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Yeah that's something I wonder about as well. The biggest companies (as far as I know, I'm not a tax lawyer) move their corporate headquarters to low tax havens (like Ireland, Luxemburg, Netherlands in the EU), so the taxes on their corporate profits will be as low as possible. But the tax income for the state will not only be from corporate profits, but also from VAT, the employees the companies employ, dividend and capital gains taxes for shareholders and so on. That will not change if the corporate tax raised is raised or lowered (which is why I don't really see the point of that anyway, but I might be wrong about that). Smaller companies that do not have the money for clever tax arrangement will pay more corporate taxes, so if those are higher than the cost of moving headquarters, they may be triggered to do so I guess.
 
T

travisbickle

Member
Lagamorph said:
Renegotiate things yes, but we've got two years in which to do that. And agreeing to Freedom of Movement in exchange for access to the single market would be a fairly quick and easy negotiation within that timeframe that also buys time for more complex negotiations whilst keeping the economy stable.
Labour are saying that about existing immigrants, but they still want to scrap Freedom of Movement which basically locks the UK out of the single market entirely, and it's that which is going to cause the greatest damage to the UK in the short, medium and long terms.


Whoever wins this election, the UK loses. Unless it's the Lib Dems, but that sadly won't happen.
Click to expand...


If this is on the table?

I don't know, but I'm exceptionally pessimistic about what the UK can get out of this now they've triggered to leave.
 
L

Lagamorph

Member
travisbickle said:
If this is on the table?

I don't know, but I'm exceptionally pessimistic about what the UK can get out of this now they've triggered to leave.
Click to expand...

Accepting freedom of movement was always on the table.
Staying in the single market was always an option, the EU have just always said that there can be no single market access without freedom of movement. Other countries have done so without needing to join the EU as I said.
 
J

JonathanEx

Member
BBC debate lineup so far:

DA1K5cpXYAA8VlQ.jpg:large
 
F

Fernando Fernandez

Member
Lads. It's not all good.

Jeremy Corbyn’s election would be likely to spell disaster for those looking for love online in the UK, according to eHarmony CEO Grant Langston.

On the other hand, if Theresa May is elected in the 2017 election then the UK’s chances of couples finding love will remain 'strong and stable'.

This is because in times of uncertainty Britons have a habit of withdrawing, and spending time with family and friends, the online love expert claimed.

“If it ends up that (Theresa May) remains Prime Minster I think there will be no effect,” Grant, who founded eHarmony in August 2000 explained.

“We’re already on the horse, I think if it goes
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http://www.express.co.uk/life-style/life/809745/jeremy-corbyn-theresa-may-election-eharmony
 
K

King Gilga

Member
I've gotten like 4 conservative brochures in the post this season and like 1 at best labour one, tories are definitely putting in the promotional work at least.

But, I'd be more inclined to peruse it if you don't put 'protecting the nhs' on the front cover. At least start with something believable for me to read it in good faith.
 
H

Huw_Dawson

Member
JonathanEx said:
BBC debate lineup so far
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OK, as a Lib Dem I am happy as Larry that there's going to be a Tory and Labour target for Farron to go after.

Trying to decide who Labour would put up...

Abbot = a nightmare
McDonnell = Reasonably charismatic, maybe too close to IRA/Marxism
Corbyn = Obviously the correct choice but nobody wants to give Farron the biggest possible target.
Starmer = Farron vs someone who wants to leave the Single Market
Thornberry = As bad as Abbot
The Shadow Business Secretary that I cannot recall the name of except that her first name is Rebecca = Non-entity

This entire election campaign has features the two big parties ignoring Farron as much as possible - as far as I recall Corbyn has never mentioned the Lib Dems, and May/the Tories only use the "Coalition of Chaos" line.

The problem with the debate is the fat - Plaid and the SNP should not be there as regional parties.

But given the flop of the first debate, I am not sure if audiences are going to be tuning in to this one either.

I want Abbot on for this reason. Hundreds of thousands of extra viewers watching to see if she screws up.

Will also be interesting to compare Farron's first TV debate, which was somewhat taught, with this one.

Really this is make or break for him - to engineer the bump in the polls that would give the campaign the momentum it needs to go over the top in places like St Ives or Bath, he needs to go out there and be memorable.

Corbyn should show up to this. If he's worth the paper he's written on he should be able to endure an attack by some 'weak' centre-left politician like Farron.
 
G

GameRamble

Member
Is anyone else getting a tonne of Tory attack ads on their social media? They stick out like a sore thumb on my leftie echo chamber feed, just getting absolutely bombarded with them, all of which are just hit pieces on Corbyn.
 
D

Doctor_Thomas

Member
The poll on the Express is even worse

DA1dJeZW0AUlHbr.jpg


GameRamble said:
Is anyone else getting a tonne of Tory attack ads on their social media? They stick out like a sore thumb on my leftie echo chamber feed, just getting absolutely bombarded with them, all of which are just hit pieces on Corbyn.
Click to expand...

I'm noticing more and more deperation from definitely real and not remotely fake accounts who keep attacking any pro-Labour posts on anything on Twitter.
 
H

Huw_Dawson

Member
Osbourne is an absolute enigma this campaign. He's planted his flag as a centrist. He's working for the man who owns the Independent, which is the only paper that has been Lib Dem since forever. He says on Nick Robinson's podcast that his paper will endorse a party but he declines to say which one. He's been a fan of surprising moves and political calculations for his entire life. And by all accounts he gets on well with the right of the Lib Dems in person, despite the LDs having absolutely no trust for him as a politician

To veer from the man who convinced Clegg to drop the tuition fees pledge to deliberately destroy the party through to endorsing the Lib Dems would be one hell of a turnabout. But every sign I see says he's not going to be backing May, because she's returned to the statist interventionist conservative movement of Heath and earlier, and he is certainly not going to endorse Corbyn.

So what is he up to?
 
D

Dorsal Axe

Member
I feel as though the Tories must have some dire internal polling to suddenly launch such aggressive and desperate attacks. The YouGov poll obviously wasn't good news, but there have been other polls and projections that are much more favourable to them.

This whole approach is classic Lynton Crosby through and through. That strategy hasn't been very effective in recent times, so I'm intrigued that they're doubling down on it.
 
R

Royal_Phalanx

Member
Yeah, noticed this on the Conservative social media accounts. Pretty telling how they go all out on "this other guy is awful" rather than saying "why we're not awful, here's why you should vote for us".
 
H

Huw_Dawson

Member
The Tory campaign is in the middle of outright collapse right now. The SS Theresa has blown up its own torpedo tubes. Mayday, mayday!

It's fascinating to see two really weak parties going at it - it's like two obese women trying to wrestle in a mudpit. Lots of dirt, noise and screaming, but no real prospect of a win by either side.
 
H

Hazzuh

Member
The Tories do seem to have dropped the ball. Why aren't unionist NI politicians all over TV talking about how they could never work with PM Corbyn and saying he is a threat to the peace process etc etc? Seems like the obvious attack to go with and one which would carry more weight that past associations.

Also, why isn't the fact that Labour MPs voted 172-40 that they didn't have confidence being brought up at every opportunity? The Tories should have made it impossible for all Labour MP to appear on TV without being confronted on that.

Huw_Dawson said:
The Tory campaign is in the middle of outright collapse right now. The SS Theresa has blown up its own torpedo tubes. Mayday, mayday!

It's fascinating to see two really weak parties going at it - it's like two obese women trying to wrestle in a mudpit. Lots of dirt, noise and screaming, but no real prospect of a win by either side.
Click to expand...

There are more than two weak parties right now ;)
 
PJV3

PJV3

Member
Royal_Phalanx said:
Yeah, noticed this on the Conservative social media accounts. Pretty telling how they go all out on "this other guy is awful" rather than saying "why we're not awful, here's why you should vote for us".
Click to expand...

To be honest, Theresa May is just fucking depressing, she could sing happy birthday and leave me needing Citalopram. The Conservative campaign just has to go with it now, you can't fashion anything positive out of it.
 
B

Beefy

Member
PJV3 said:
My daughter was watching the Twirlywoos(I think) and May's voice started booming out about the UK dying or something equally positive.
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Yeah the ads I have seen are all about attacking Corbyn and how he would kill the UK basically.
 
H

Huw_Dawson

Member
Hazzuh said:
There are more than two weak parties right now ;)
Click to expand...

I mean in terms of the big debate. The LDs in that analogy is someone sitting on the sidelines waiting for their turn.

The Tories are making a massive mistake criticising Corbyn. Few dislike Corbyn as a person - it is his leadership, direction etc that are problematic.

The fact that the Tories have not got a solid lock on the reality, which is that the public would ultimately rather pay a bit more in tax than see public services weaken further, is indicative of how their campaign is heading for defeat. They'll abuse FPTP for all its worth, but I am not sure if this is a mandate for anything anymore.
 
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