Sticker price: $599
This is theoretical (please post own estimates as you have them).
The lowest order number we know of is: 613 0000 21 XXXXX.
Looking at this chart you can see how these orders are spread w/shipping estimates:
Now, it seems like Oculus started just a day or two ago to add Kickstarter backers to the end of the order list. As you know, all KS backers whom pledged for the full Oculus DK1 kit ($300+) will receive a free consumer unit. Some of the pledges covered multiple DK1's and it might be possible that these will be receiving multiple consumer units (but they are the minority). Having counted up the KS backer campaign numbers earlier there will be around ~6500-7000 free units given out.
(sidenote: KS backers won't have to wait until all prior order are fulfilled before theirs are shipped)
So, after KS backers being appended yesterday we are up to order number 613 0000 80 XXXXX.
I haven't seen a higher order number at this time. The lowest order number for a KS backer I've seen is 613 0000 67 XXXXX (updated, thanks kingschiebi) though it might be even lower. It seems like one can assume that XXXXX doesn't represent ..00000 additional units but rather ..000 (unless for some magical reason they had 1.3 million additional pre-orders in the last 24 hours and having 6+ million in pre-orders total...).
I'm an 80 according to that chart unless I'm looking at the order number wrong.
(Edit: seems like XXXXX follows some algorithm so we cannot base qty directly from that)
Also, an order made by another NeoGAF user today has estimated shipping time set to July:
It's unsure why the lowest number starts at ..21.. . Obfuscation? Developer orders / hands-out prior? Anyhow, what we are concerned about is consumer success. (Edit: removed total calc, follow discussions below)
Well, I just preordered the Rift. Expected shipping is July 2016.
The combined amount of Oculus DK1 and DK2 units sold between summer 2012 (Kickstarter) and summer 2015 (DK2 ending sales) were 175 000 units (proof 1, proof 2). These were free to purchase for the public at large during their lifespan but didn't receive any direct marketing and were always marked as developer units. Price ranged from $299 to $349. Also they didn't have direct competition like the HTC Vive (launching simultaneously) and the upcoming PSVR.