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May 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 7th

Welfare

Welfare

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
Though Mario Kart sold 415,000 unit first week... Uncharted will definitively sells over 1 million, maybe even 1.2 million. (i include digital for both)

Uncharted will have a more agressive launch, and like i said it will be sold for 3 weeks, not only one week... but i don't know, honestly i'm starting to have some doubt.

I think PS4 will definitively sell more than in April by at least 2 digit %.

If PS4 sells < 200K, that's much bad. This really mean PS4 has peaked.
Click to expand...

I don't know why you bring up software sales. Those don't matter since the PS4 has a much bigger install to sell UC4's than Wii U's and MK8.

A big software seller doesn't mean it'll sell much hardware. There is enough evidence for this in slow months like April and May.
 
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RexNovis

Banned
Ryng_tolu said:
If PS4 sells < 200K, that's much bad. This really mean PS4 has peaked.
Click to expand...

What?!?!? No it wouldn't. That would be a massive increase YoY in a very slow month. To say that PS4 has peaked because it didn't post a 30% + YoY increase in a traditionally low sales month is ridiculous Ryng. Posting a single digit % increase would be impressive given the low impact month we are talking about. I feel like I'm in the twilight zone with all these predictions and now ultimatums that defy what I thought was accepted logic for May. What is even going on anymore?

PS4 sold 152k units last May which X would mean 200k would be a 32% increase YoY on what is one of the lowest selling months of the year. Does that sound like something that should be expected?

Could PS4 post a massive YoY increase this month? Sure! Should it be expected to happen and a sign of sales collapse of it doesn't? Hell no.

I have sneaking suspicion that people's frame of reference for May HW sales is just way off.
 
K

Kill3r7

Member
Ryng_tolu said:
Comparation times, :p which game will sell more lifetime in the USA?

Mario Kart 8 or Uncharted 4?

There are not precise numbers, but Mario Kart is well over 2 million withouth bundle or digital, and including both of them, numbers really change (could be well over 2.5 million).
Not to mention legs are still strong and is still bundled, it will most likely sells 3 million/3.5 million when all is well and done.

So will Uncharted beat it? :p
Click to expand...

The only thing I can say for sure is that MK8 will have the best attach rate of any game this gen. I do think UC4 will come pretty close to beating sales wise depending on bundles and maybe a VR supported version down the road.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
RexNovis said:
What?!?!? No it wouldn't. That would be a massive increase YoY in a very slow month. To say that PS4 has peaked because it didn't post a 30% + YoY increase in a traditionally low sales month is ridiculous Ryng. Posting a single digit % increase would be impressive given the low impact month we are talking about. I feel like I'm in the twilight zone with all these predictions and now ultimatums that defy what I thought was accepted logic for May. What is even going on anymore?

PS4 sold 152k units last May which X would mean 200k would be a 32% increase YoY on what is one of the lowest selling months of the year. Does that sound like something that should be expected?

Could PS4 post a massive YoY increase this month? Sure! Should it be expected to happen and a sign of sales collapse of it doesn't? Hell no.
Click to expand...

Wait, I didn't even notice that part of his post.

Yeah, what? The PS4 doing anything more substantial than 152k is already a success.

Interesting Fact: No console has sold more than 200k in May since 2011.
 
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Ryng_tolu

Banned
Welfare said:
I don't know why you bring up software sales. Those don't matter since the PS4 has a much bigger install to sell UC4's than Wii U's and MK8.

A big software seller doesn't mean it'll sell much hardware. There is enough evidence for this in slow months like April and May.
Click to expand...

Ok you got me. changed my PS4 prediction.

RexNovis said:
What?!?!? No it wouldn't. That would be a massive increase YoY in a very slow month. To say that PS4 has peaked because it didn't post a 30% + YoY increase in a traditionally low sales month is ridiculous Ryng. Posting a single digit % increase would be impressive given the low impact month we are talking about. I feel like I'm in the twilight zone with all these predictions and now ultimatums that defy what I thought was accepted logic for May. What is even going on anymore?

PS4 sold 152k units last May which X would mean 200k would be a 32% increase YoY on what is one of the lowest selling months of the year. Does that sound like something that should be expected?

Could PS4 post a massive YoY increase this month? Sure! Should it be expected to happen and a sign of sales collapse of it doesn't? Hell no.

I have sneaking suspicion that people's frame of reference for May HW sales is just way off.
Click to expand...

Last year PS4 was selling for $400, this year is $350. And not only $350, but $350 with one of the bigger game ever, Call of Duty Black Ops III. A good YOY increase all months should be expect, like should at least be the minimum.

Indeed PS4 sales last month and in March were very disappoint if you ask me, expecially March since with a game like The Division and that massive BO 3 bundle for $350 was flat YOY. And yes i know last March was BloodBorne, but it was not that big, it not even sold 400K at retail.

If PS4 in May with one of the bigger game it will ever have, and still this better price with Black Ops III compared to last year won't have a big YOY increase, well that's not great and yes, mean that PS4 is peaking.

i don't said PS4 won't have a better 2016 than 2015, i just saying that those sales are not that great all considering. If was not for the PS4 neo, i would say withouth doubt that 2015 was the peak.


And why are you saying so much that this is a "slow month"? It's a slow month this year like it was last year lol, May is always slow, is not like May 2015 was a better month than May 2016.
 
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RexNovis

Banned
Ryng_tolu said:
Ok you got me. changed my PS4 prediction.



Last year PS4 was selling for $400, this year is $350. And not only $350, but $350 with one of the bigger game ever, Call of Duty Black Ops III. A good YOY increase all months should be expect, like should at least be the minimum.

Indeed PS4 sales last month and in March were very disappoint if you ask me, expecially March since with a game like The Division and that massive BO 3 bundle for $350 was flat YOY. And yes i know last March was BloodBorne, but it was not that big, it not even sold 400K at retail.

If PS4 in May with one of the bigger game it will ever have, and still this better price with Black Ops III compared to last year won't have a big YOY increase, well that's not great and yes, mean that PS4 is peaking.

i don't said PS4 won't have a better 2016 than 2015, i just saying that those sales are not that great all considering. If was not for the PS4 neo, i would say withouth doubt that 2015 was the peak.


And why are you saying so much that this is a "slow month"? It's a slow month this year like it was last year lol, May is always slow, is not like May 2015 was a better month than May 2016.
Click to expand...

A slow month will always be a slow month regardless of what software a console is bundled with. Especially if said bundle has been available for many months. I've also explained why UC4 isn't necessarily a HW selling game since most UC fans would've already bought a PS4 by this point. I have no idea why you're talking about last month's sales as all I've referred to is YoY which is a more accurate measure of success in this case.

You're being absolutely unrealistic with your expectations here. If the PS4 is up YoY in a slow month that is a good thing and a single digit increase would in no way signal a need for "concern" about the health of the console. You're artificially inflating your sales expectations due to factors that would have very little impact on a slower sales month.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Could one of our wizards find out the to date lowest months and their numbers for ps4, x1, 3ds and wiiu?

This would be very kind.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Primethius said:
I got you covered on PS4 and XB1.

PS4, May 2015: 152k
XB1, May 2014: 77k

My Wii U numbers are ass and my 3DS ones incomplete.
Click to expand...
giphy.gif

Honestly, this is such a great community.
Lowered my numbers once again
 
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RexNovis

Banned
slavesnyder said:
giphy.gif

Honestly, this is such a great community.
Lowered my numbers once again
Click to expand...

Yea like I was saying these higher predictions are kinda crazy considering the month were dealing with. And the idea that 200k should be a minimum for adequate performance is frankly absurd historically speaking given the month we are talking about. I mean it could happen but not happening doesn't mean it's troubling.
 
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Ryng_tolu

Banned
Primethius said:
I got you covered on PS4 and XB1.

PS4, May 2015: 152k
XB1, May 2014: 77k

My Wii U numbers are ass and my 3DS ones incomplete.
Click to expand...

Wii U worst month is 29K, 3DS is 70K.

Conduit said:
For that kind of game/genre sales numbers are awesome.
Click to expand...

Oh, i totally agree here. But i was ralking about The Fact that BloodBorne was not as big as The Division.

RexNovis said:
A slow month will always be a slow month regardless of what software a console is bundled with. Especially if said bundle has been available for many months. I've also explained why UC4 isn't necessarily a HW selling game since most UC fans would've already bought a PS4 by this point. I have no idea why you're talking about last month's sales as all I've referred to is YoY which is a more accurate measure of success in this case.

You're being absolutely unrealistic with your expectations here. If the PS4 is up YoY in a slow month that is a good thing and a single digit increase would in no way signal a need for "concern" about the health of the console. You're artificially inflating your sales expectations due to factors that would have very little impact on a slower sales month.
Click to expand...

You Are starting to be boring with that "you'r expectations Are unrealistic" talk, expecially when You Are the First who make "bold" predictions all months, and ask to us in This Thread to make similar prediction.

Lot of Times i could have Said many of your predictions were crazy.

I still Remember when You said my Splatoon predictions were unrealistic and i was not truly believed it but were just a dream/hope... Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeah, we all know The end of this Story. ;P

Or just 2 months ago in The February NPD Thread You called crazy who predicted >150K for 3DS, and in The end it Sold 176K.

Seriusly, stop. I have my opinion / expectations, You have your, and all others Guys too have difference predictions, opinions, expectations ecc.

You can't Say my expectations Are unrealistic only because You have a difference opinion, which is what You always do. And many Times we saw that some predictions which were unrealistic for You, in The end were right.


That Said, about PS4. Who said we should be "concern"? I never Said This, i just Said that if PS4 is flat YOY with a better Price and a massive Game in Bundle like Black Ops, this is not good. Or bad, or all, This just show that IN MY OPINION PS4 is peaking, which doesn't mean is selling bad, or doesn't mean it won't have an amazing year, like i Said with The NEO Version This Holidays we Are looking for an amazing year. But if there is not The NEO Version, then yeah most likely 2016 won't ne as good as 2015, considering one time PS4 was up YOY by something like +20% per months, while now is flat.

And no, be up YOY in a slow month is not THAT good, cause is a slow month. In The end, if PS4 is down or up in May doesn't really count that much in The total yearly Sales. What could be amazing? Be up YOY in The BIGS months like November and December, which
Were The stronger months for PS4 ever.

A slow month is slow all years, May 2016 will be slow just like May 2015, with The difference that This time we have Uncharted.

EDIT: Also i forgot to Say an important Thing: Last year June 2015 was The month of The New Batman AK Bundle, which eated a lot of PS4 Sales in both April and May... Then PS4 is explosed in June. (366K)

That is also why last April / May were so low for PS4, yes both Are very slow months but there was even this Bundle annunced by starting April which hurted PS4 sales. If PS4 won't be much up This month, then in June NPD 2016 PS4 will be massive down YOY.
 
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RexNovis

Banned
Ryng_tolu said:
Wii U worst month is 29K, 3DS is 70K.



Oh, i totally agree here. But i was ralking about The Fact that BloodBorne was not as big as The Division.



You Are starting to be boring with that "you'r expectations Are unrealistic" talk, expecially when You Are the First who make "bold" predictions all months, and ask to us in This Thread to make similar prediction.

Lot of Times i could have Said many of your predictions were crazy.

I still Remember when You said my Splatoon predictions were unrealistic and i was not truly believed it but were just a dream/hope... Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeah, we all know The end of this Story. ;P

Or just 2 months ago in The February NPD Thread You called crazy who predicted >150K for 3DS, and in The end it Sold 176K.

Seriusly, stop. I have my opinion / expectations, You have your, and all others Guys too have difference predictions, opinions, expectations ecc.

You can't Say my expectations Are unrealistic only because You have a difference opinion, which is what You always do. And many Times we saw that some predictions which were unrealistic for You, in The end were right.


That Said, about PS4. Who said we should be "concern"? I never Said This, i just Said that if PS4 is flat YOY with a better Price and a massive Game in Bundle like Black Ops, this is not good. Or bad, or all, This just show that IN MY OPINION PS4 is peaking, which doesn't mean is selling bad, or doesn't mean it won't have an amazing year, like i Said with The NEO Version This Holidays we Are looking for an amazing year. But if there is not The NEO Version, then yeah most likely 2016 won't ne as good as 2015, considering one time PS4 was up YOY by something like +20% per months, while now is flat.

And no, be up YOY in a slow month is not THAT good, cause is a slow month. In The end, if PS4 is down or up in May doesn't really count that much in The total yearly Sales. What could be amazing? Be up YOY in The BIGS months like November and December, which
Were The stronger months for PS4 ever.

A slow month is slow all years, May 2016 will be slow just like May 2015, with The difference that This time we have Uncharted.

EDIT: Also i forgot to Say an important Thing: Last year June 2015 was The month of The New Batman AK Bundle, which eated a lot of PS4 Sales in both April and May... Then PS4 is explosed in June. (366K)

That is also why last April / May were so low for PS4, yes both Are very slow months but there was even this Bundle annunced by starting April which hurted PS4 sales. If PS4 won't be much up This month, then in June NPD 2016 PS4 will be massive down YOY.
Click to expand...

First of all I'm not the only person pointing out your minimum is crazy for the month historically speaking.

Secondly, there's a difference between making a bold prediction that you think is risky and saying sales less than 200k in May are somehow disappointing and not expected. They are not even remotely the same thing. One is making a risky fun prediction and the other is placing an historically high minimum sales threshold for what you deem acceptable levels of performance. Your basically creating artificially high stakes for a self imposed prediction by stating batting under your very high prediction would spell doom for te platform in question. If you don't see how that's different from making crazy no stakes predictions for the fun of fostering discussion I don't know what to tell you.

That Said, about PS4. Who said we should be "concern"? I never Said This, i just Said that if PS4 is flat YOY with a better Price and a massive Game in Bundle like Black Ops, this is not good. Or bad, or all, This just show that IN MY OPINION PS4 is peaking, which doesn't mean is selling bad, or doesn't mean it won't have an amazing year
Click to expand...

But you didn't say sun YoY you said less than 200k down YoY would be less than 152k. That is a MASSIVE difference for such a slow month. What you basically said is that unless the PS4 is up o et 30% YoY it's "bad" and "has peaked."

PS4 selling less than 200k in May does not mean it's sales have peaked nor does it mean they are poor for the month in question. In fact 200k would be far and away above any historical precedent for sales in May. It's fine to ale unrealistic and risky predictions but saying "if the platforms doesn't meet my unrealistic predictions that's bad and concerning" is not ok.

So again my issue is not with your high expectations it's with this

Ryng_tolu said:
If PS4 sells < 200K, that's much bad. This really mean PS4 has peaked.
Click to expand...

your insistence that not meeting those expectations is somehow "bad" or means the platform "has peaked" are the issue here. Because it's just not true in any shape or form. Selling less than 150k or being down YoY you could say this but saying that failing to be over 30% up YoY is somehow bad is absurd.
 
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Ryng_tolu

Banned
RexNovis said:
First of all I'm not the only person pointing out your minimum is crazy for the month historically speaking.

Secondly, there's a difference between making a bold prediction that you think is risky and saying sales less than 200k in May are somehow disappointing and not expected. They are not even remotely the same thing. One is making a risky fun prediction and the other is placing an historically high minimum sales threshold for what you deem acceptable levels of performance. Your basically creating artificially high stakes for a self imposed prediction by stating batting under your very high prediction would spell doom for te platform in question. If you don't see how that's different from making crazy no stakes predictions for the fun of fostering discussion I don't know what to tell you.



But you didn't say sun YoY you said less than 200k down YoY would be less than 152k. That is a MASSIVE difference for such a slow month. What you basically said is that unless the PS4 is up o et 30% YoY it's "bad" and "has peaked."

PS4 selling less than 200k in May does not mean it's sales have peaked nor does it mean they are poor for the month in question. In fact 200k would be far and away above any historical precedent for sales in May. It's fine to ale unrealistic and risky predictions but saying "if the platforms doesn't meet my unrealistic predictions that's bad and concerning" is not ok.

So again my issue is not with your high expectations it's with this



your insistence that not meeting those expectations is somehow "bad" or means the platform "has peaked" are the issue here. Because it's just not true in any shape or form. Selling less than 150k or being down YoY you could say this but saying that failing to be over 30% up YoY is somehow bad is absurd.
Click to expand...

Let's see the situation. 152K in May 2015, with:

  • $400 price + The Last of us remastered (a remastered of a very old game, which sold yes good, but not THAT good)
  • The Witcher 3 ( 420,000 unit sold at retail)
  • Sales hurted by the Batman bundle in June

Now, May 2016 will be:

  • $350 price + Black Ops III (A game which sold INSANE, and is not even that old, the comunity is still insanity huge)
  • Uncharted 4 which is gonna sell even in the worst scenario a minimum of double what The Witcher 3 sold, and is an exclusive, aka if you wanna play Uncharted you must buy a PS4, not like The Witcher 3 which was on PC and XBO
  • A new bundle in May, and nothing that can hurt the sales in June
    (unless you are one of those people who think PS4 Neo rumors are a problem
    1.0
    )


Honestly yes, i believe that if with this scenario PS4 end < 200K for the month, that's really disappoint and not good, at all.

I admin i exagerate with saying is "bad", but still. I don't think my expectations are unrealistic...
 
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RexNovis

Banned
Ryng_tolu said:
Let's see the situation. 152K in May 2015, with:

  • $400 price + The Last of us remastered (a remastered of a very old game, which sold yes good, but not THAT good)
  • The Witcher 3 ( 420,000 unit sold at retail)
  • Sales hurted by the Batman bundle in June

Now, May 2016 will be:

  • $350 price + Black Ops III (A game which sold INSANE, and is not even that old, the comunity is still insanity huge)
  • Uncharted 4 which is gonna sell even in the worst scenario a minimum of double what The Witcher 3 sold, and is an exclusive, aka if you wanna play Uncharted you must buy a PS4, not like The Witcher 3 which was on PC and XBO
  • A new bundle in May, and nothing that can hurt the sales in June
    (unless you are one of those people who think PS4 Neo rumors are a problem
    1.0
    )


Honestly yes, i believe that if with this scenario PS4 end < 200K for the month, that's really disappoint and not good, at all.

I admin i exagerate with saying is "bad", but still. I don't think my expectations are unrealistic...
Click to expand...

To be clear I'm not claiming that it's impossible for PS4 to sell more than 200k this month I'm just saying that doing so would be pretty impressive if it happens given the month in question and is by no means the minimum the platform should sell in the month to be considered a successful month sales wise. That's all I'm saying.

May is just not a big month and it's historically been a month where these platforms see some of their lowest sales so the idea of one platform breaking 200k is fairly unlikely IMO but certainly not impossible given the release of a bundle along with a major exclusive and some very successful AAA third party releases. But if you think it selling under 200k but still being up YoY in one of the slowest months of the year is "bad" or "dissapinting" then I completely and wholeheartedly disagree.

slavesnyder said:
So what will be more likely for may?
Xbox below 100k
Or
PS4 above 200k
Or both?
Or neither?
Click to expand...

XB1 had some pretty crazy deals in May so of it really does end up selling below 100k that would bode horribly for the platforms consumer appeal in its strongest territory. To me that is less likely given the promotions that were available than the chance of PS4 breaking 200k but again both seem pretty unlikely to me (like less than 10% chance IMO).
 
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RexNovis

Banned
slavesnyder said:
And next week has a tuesday. Crazy.
Click to expand...

Did you see those bundles dude? We are talking bundles with 5 or more first party games. By far the best bundles I remember seeing for the system. If they can't manage 100k sales despite offering damn near every single first party gam they've released thus far for free with the purchase of the console in their strongest territory that'd be basically all she wrote IMO. The appeal for the console had certainly been on a decline but that would mean it's essentially completely dead and to expect WiiU level sales in the future absent new more appealing HW offerings.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
CosmicQueso said:
I'd go with PS4>200 being more likely, but really have no idea. It's May. Not a very meaningful month.
Click to expand...
Sure. It's off season. But I guess it's human nature to care about meaningless things.
RexNovis said:
Did you see those bundles dude? We are talking bundles with 5 or more first party games. By far the best bundles I remember seeing for the system. If they can't manage 100k sales despite offering damn near every single first party gam they've released thus far for free with the purchase of the console in their strongest territory that'd be basically all she wrote IMO.
Click to expand...
I saw those crazy bundles but didn't they come just on the last days of may? Uninformed users like me could think that this was a spontanious panic move.
We're losing altitudes, throw some bundles overboard.
but to get rid of these stupid conspiracy theories I 'd like to switch on the bat-signal:

Dear experts, my question

Let's say I am the boss of a console hardware division and i do not need any further internal approvals.
How quickly would it be possible to make a move like this with one big retailer?
So: lowering price of a product, add a few games, make a few banners.
I guess amazon would be fastest as no stores and promo material is complicating things.

Thanks.
 
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Ryng_tolu

Banned
RexNovis said:
To be clear I'm not claiming that it's impossible for PS4 to sell more than 200k this month I'm just saying that doing so would be pretty impressive if it happens given the month in question and is by no means the minimum the platform should sell in the month to be considered a successful month sales wise. That's all I'm saying.

May is just not a big month and it's historically been a month where these platforms see some of their lowest sales so the idea of one platform breaking 200k is fairly unlikely IMO but certainly not impossible given the release of a bundle along with a major exclusive and some very successful AAA third party releases. But if you think it selling under 200k but still being up YoY in one of the slowest months of the year is "bad" or "dissapinting" then I completely and wholeheartedly disagree.
Click to expand...

I think you are too much concentrated in May 2015.

I mean ok, it sold 152K that month, but i already explained the situation. (just saying, the Batman bundle alone in June almost outsold PS4 May 2015 sales, that bundle sold 121K in June)

In May 2014, for example, it was only 3k off from break 200K. It sold 197,000 unit that month, about the same or to be fair a -1% compared to April 199,000 2014.

May 2014 was the month of Watch_Dogs which sold 583,000 unit first week on PS4, it sold those numbers in just one week.

This was a multiplatrorm though, so with way less sales than Uncharted 4 on PS4, i think we SHOULD expect a bigger boost for PS4 from Uncharted 4 sales (even if some guys played the collection, the real Uncharted fans were waiting for this).

The other console sales in May doesn't really matter, at all. We talk about PS4.

Even if it failed to ever sells 200K in May, this doesn't change that was super damn close in May 2014. If was so close in May 2014, 200K in the Uncharted month can't be a unrealistic expectation,

And honestly, back in May 2014 i thought the same about now with PS4, those May 2014 numbers were disappoint in my opinion. I was expect a bigger boost from Watch Dogs, at least a MOM increase. But that's not happened.

So yes, may is a slow month and all but from the bigger PS4 exclusive ever i think we should expect more.


EDIT: Also there was not a Watch_Dogs bundle in USA (Was Europe exclusives, and has almost doubled PS4 sales in UK the week of Watch_Dogs release). While Uncharted bundle is limited, is better than nothing.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
The biggest YoY performance the PS4 has had this year was in January, and it was up 22%. Each month after that, the YoY gains have decreased (+18% in February, +0.0 in March, and +0.1 in April). I don't think it is reasonable to expect May to do so much better YoY than January or February, as it looks like the price drop's effect has diminished severely.

Why would Uncharted fans not have a PS4 by now? Over the holidays you could get the NDC bundle for $299. Why wait for UC4 and buy a $349 or $399 bundle? That's not smart.
 
A

AmyS

Member
It'll be interesting to see what Dark Souls III sales are for an entire month (released April 12th).
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
slavesnyder said:
I saw those crazy bundles but didn't they come just on the last days of may? Uninformed users like me could think that this was a spontanious panic move.
We're losing altitudes, throw some bundles overboard.
but to get rid of these stupid conspiracy theories I 'd like to switch on the bat-signal:

Dear experts, my question

Let's say I am the boss of a console hardware division and i do not need any further internal approvals.
How quickly would it be possible to make a move like this with one big retailer?
So: lowering price of a product, add a few games, make a few banners.
I guess amazon would be fastest as no stores and promo material is complicating things.

Thanks.
Click to expand...

Im not sure about the days the bundle was available but I had thought it was the majority of May. If not then I stand corrected.

As far as the difficulty of creating such bundles on the fly that's a hard question to answer since we don't know how much of these bundles were the response of retailers to the potentially devastating effect sales wise of their OG XB1 backstock with a likely Slim SKU around the corner. It could be that MS themselves were pressured by retailers to make a compelling bundle in an attempt to clear that by most accounts substantial back stock ahead of the assumed new SKUs.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Welfare said:
Over the holidays you could get the NDC bundle for $299. Why wait for UC4 and buy a $349 or $399 bundle? That's not smart.
Click to expand...

Ascribing forethought and planning to an instant gratification society? What nonsense! Also, GameStop trade-in was pretty ridiculous. If you wanted to get the Uncharted 4 system, you could get a hefty amount for your old PS4 or trade over from XB1. I don't claim to understand the thought process that leads people to think it's worth it to trade in systems/games at GameStop, but to deny that it's a huge driver of sales would be ludicrous. We've seen its affects in NPD prediction threads before. Don't get too tied down to past month YOY %s limiting this month's results. Outliers are considered outliers for a reason. Unusual circumstances can lead to out of the ordinary results.
 
K

KinofChaos

Banned
Welfare said:
The biggest YoY performance the PS4 has had this year was in January, and it was up 22%. Each month after that, the YoY gains have decreased (+18% in February, +0.0 in March, and +0.1 in April). I don't think it is reasonable to expect May to do so much better YoY than January or February, as it looks like the price drop's effect has diminished severely.

Why would Uncharted fans not have a PS4 by now? Over the holidays you could get the NDC bundle for $299. Why wait for UC4 and buy a $349 or $399 bundle? That's not smart.
Click to expand...

Why wouldn't Halo fans not already have an Xbox?
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
All this talk about PS4 U4 bundle made me wants to know my prediction o_O

Edit - 26% boost over last year... I'm fine ;)
 
F

Fat4all

Banned
the uc4 bundle is nice and all, but the cod bundle has cod. and it's cheaper

a lot of people who bought systems for uc4 last month probably just got the cod bundle and uc4 separately
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
Fat4all said:
the uc4 bundle is nice and all, but the cod bundle has cod. and it's cheaper

a lot of people who bought systems for uc4 last month probably just got the cod bundle and uc4 separately
Click to expand...
Thinking about that it is close to the same price with two games instead one.

COD bundle is a better deal unless you really want the PS4 U4 theme.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
donny2112 said:
Ascribing forethought and planning to an instant gratification society? What nonsense! Also, GameStop trade-in was pretty ridiculous. If you wanted to get the Uncharted 4 system, you could get a hefty amount for your old PS4 or trade over from XB1. I don't claim to understand the thought process that leads people to think it's worth it to trade in systems/games at GameStop, but to deny that it's a huge driver of sales would be ludicrous. We've seen its affects in NPD prediction threads before. Don't get too tied down to past month YOY %s limiting this month's results. Outliers are considered outliers for a reason. Unusual circumstances can lead to out of the ordinary results.
Click to expand...

Actually, how would that Gamestop deal look like on NPD? Like, if someone did trade in their PS4 for another PS4, isn't that a net 0? One PS4 is sold while one is bought in return.
 
R

RexNovis

Banned
Welfare said:
Actually, how would that Gamestop deal look like on NPD? Like, if someone did trade in their PS4 for another PS4, isn't that a net 0? One PS4 is sold while one is bought in return.
Click to expand...

Nah it'd count as a sale for the month. I didn't know there was a big GameStop trade in promotion for May.
 
ethomaz

ethomaz

Banned
I wish to have here in Brasil a trade in deal from PS4 to PS4 Destiny LE at Destiny launch.

Welfare said:
Actually, how would that Gamestop deal look like on NPD? Like, if someone did trade in their PS4 for another PS4, isn't that a net 0? One PS4 is sold while one is bought in return.
Click to expand...
It counts for 1 sale in May.

What won't count is the reseller of the old PS4 by GameStop because it already counted in previous months.

Same for game reseller that didn't count in NPD.
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Welfare said:
Actually, how would that Gamestop deal look like on NPD? Like, if someone did trade in their PS4 for another PS4, isn't that a net 0? One PS4 is sold while one is bought in return.
Click to expand...

As others said, only the sale of the new unit is recorded.

However, I've seen research that suggests, with some confidence, that the Used market generates as much business in New product sales as it takes away (both HW and SW).

What I mean by this is that the trade in of the Used unit creates value in the market that is then spent on New. And that this New spend wouldn't happen without the Used component. Many customers use their old product to fund new purchases.

Meaning, it all washes out, and we shouldn't worry about Used negatively impacting New.

A few years ago, Used was a huge boogeyman devs and pubs would point to as being harmful for the industry. Notice now that no one from devs or pubs really says anything about that anymore? Some are still rubbed the wrong way by it, but the smart devs and pubs out there realize that the Used market isn't something to lose sleep over.

Kind of a tangent, but it's interesting how the thinking around the Used market has evolved over time.

slavesnyder said:
Sure. It's off season. But I guess it's human nature to care about meaningless things.
Click to expand...

In looking at the Overwatch mtx thread, would have to certainly agree with you there.
 
M

michaelius

Banned
RexNovis said:
Did you see those bundles dude? We are talking bundles with 5 or more first party games. By far the best bundles I remember seeing for the system. If they can't manage 100k sales despite offering damn near every single first party gam they've released thus far for free with the purchase of the console in their strongest territory that'd be basically all she wrote IMO. The appeal for the console had certainly been on a decline but that would mean it's essentially completely dead and to expect WiiU level sales in the future absent new more appealing HW offerings.
Click to expand...

Well Xbox division basically played every single card available to them.

All big games are released except for Gears 4
They had crazy bundles and price drops
They tried showing tons of exclusive games on E3

So they are reaching a point where everyone interested in xbox already had enough reasons to buy one.
 
S

Shin-chan

Member
CosmicQueso said:
As others said, only the sale of the new unit is recorded.

However, I've seen research that suggests, with some confidence, that the Used market generates as much business in New product sales as it takes away (both HW and SW).

What I mean by this is that the trade in of the Used unit creates value in the market that is then spent on New. And that this New spend wouldn't happen without the Used component. Many customers use their old product to fund new purchases.

Meaning, it all washes out, and we shouldn't worry about Used negatively impacting New.

A few years ago, Used was a huge boogeyman devs and pubs would point to as being harmful for the industry. Notice now that no one from devs or pubs really says anything about that anymore? Some are still rubbed the wrong way by it, but the smart devs and pubs out there realize that the Used market isn't something to lose sleep over.

Kind of a tangent, but it's interesting how the thinking around the Used market has evolved over time.



In looking at the Overwatch mtx thread, would have to certainly agree with you there.
Click to expand...
So what changed at the pubs? Just better more nuanced research? It's true that you don't see the old $10 pass or whatever it was called anymore. And instead of tacking on multiplayer to lengthen the life of a game and prevent someone from trading it in a week later we have games where there is no difference between single player and multiplayer or where the single player content is so vast (and repetitive) that it takes a long time to get through everything. It's like the harsher less consumer friendly measures have been replaced by controls in the design of the software that incentivise longer play times to create fewer used copies (at least early on).

Edit: I guess you can also include season passes into this. On one hand you extract as much value out of the dedicated user as possible to offset the losses of a used copy, and in the other you have got a certain amount of invested customers who are less likely to trade it in for several months.

I'd be interested if the same holds true for the Japanese market where used stuff is still huge (I swear, when I was there I struggled to find new copies for the longest time. It never occurred to me that the second hand market would be so massive).
 
C

CosmicQueso

Member
Shin-chan said:
It's true that you don't see the old $10 pass or whatever it was called anymore.
Click to expand...

"Project $10". That went away from a combination of very low conversion of used buyers and a major retailer demanding that pubs provide free codes that could be given to customers that bought used. Then that went away quite quickly.

Shin-chan said:
And instead of tacking on multiplayer to lengthen the life of a game and prevent someone from trading it in a week later we have games where there is no difference between single player and multiplayer or where the single player content is so vast (and repetitive) that it takes a long time to get through everything. It's like the harsher less consumer friendly measures have been replaced by controls in the design of the software that incentivise longer play times to create fewer used copies (at least early on).
Click to expand...

Good points. Hello open worlds and lite MMOs and the decline of single-player 10-15 hour campaign games.

Shin-chan said:
Edit: I guess you can also include season passes into this. On one hand you extract as much value out of the dedicated user as possible to offset the losses of a used copy, and in the other you have got a certain amount of invested customers who are less likely to trade it in for several months.
Click to expand...

Think the story here is still being written. I personally think the market's been flooded with too many high cost, low value season passes which will result in declining attach rates for season passes over time which could reduce the impact you point out. Could be wrong.

Shin-chan said:
I'd be interested if the same holds true for the Japanese market where used stuff is still huge (I swear, when I was there I struggled to find new copies for the longest time. It never occurred to me that the second hand market would be so massive).
Click to expand...

No clue. I'd be interested as well.
 
N

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I would expect season pass revenue to centralize around developers and series with reputations for high value DLC the same way that initial product revenue has centralized around games with great value propositions.

If someone gets the reputation for selling $40 season passes with three hours of content and a bunch of skins, it won't do nearly as well as a season pass for CoD, Battlefield, or a Bethesda game.

For Japanese games, most core titles have zero legs past the first few weeks, even if they're astronomical over performers relative to value and quality expectations.

It's mostly casual titles that break the trend along with multiplayer games like Monster Hunter.
 
S

Shin-chan

Member
I hadn't really considered season pass performance over the years. I guess it's very rarely reported on, except to inflate revenue figures occasionally.

I'd like to think that only the meaty ones have a strong attach rate, but as a person that has never found one appealing enough to actually buy I don't really know which were good value and otherwise.
 
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