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hollomat
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:02 AM)
Back when Psychonauts 2 was originally announced on Fig, I was interested in the investing aspect and reserved a spot so I could make an investment once it was cleared with the SEC for non-accredited investors (normal people who aren't worth more than $1 million).

Back then, Fig posted a chart that if in an investor invested $500, if Pyschonauts 2 sold 1.7M copies at an average wholesale price of $21 (a little under $30 retail), an investor would get back $800 for a profit of $300.

http://siliconangle.com/blog/2015/12...psychonauts-2/

Considering Pyschonauts 1 had lifetime sales of 1.7M, and the majority of them were far under $30 (736k of these sales were when it was in a humble bundle, and many sales were when it was discounted to $1), this seemed risky, but still doable.

However, now that the offering has been approved by the SEC, I received an email I could finally make an investment. Prior to making the investment, I reviewed the SEC offering document :

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...publishing.htm

The terms are completely different, and based on the terms of the offering agreement, if someone invests $1,000, Pyschonauts 2 will need to sell over 2 million copies at a retail price of $60 before that investor will even receive their initial investment yet (without any profit). This means selling over 300,000 more copies than Psychonauts 1 and all at a retail price of $60, just to get your initial investment back. Seems completely impossible.

Someone on reddit also did the math:
https://www.reddit.com/r/DOUBLEFINE/..._2_investment/

TLDR: Pyschonauts 2 on fig was advertised as needing to sell 1.7M copies at a wholesale price of $21 for investors to get an 80% return.

Now that people can actually invest, the terms have changed and it needs to sell over 2M copies at a retail price of $60 for investors to get a 0% return.

Psychonauts 1 has lifetime sales of 1.7M. 736k were when it was in a humble bundle and many more were when it was sold for $1.

Edit: Also, much of the funds for Psychonauts 2 were from investors. These funds have not been collected yet, and were investors like me who "reserved" a spot for when investment was finally available (this month). If they don't follow through with their investment (I am not), those investment funds will not be collected.

Edit 2: If anyone wants to check my math, the offering document with the terms is at the below link. Based on an investment of $1000 and a sales price of $60, I'm calculating that an investor would receive just under 1/100 of a cent for each copy sold.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...publishing.htm

Edit 3: This break-even point is just for investors going through Fig. Due to the revenue sharing structure, the actual break-even point for Double Fine and their unnamed large Investor is much lower. However the terms for the investors like you and me are really terrible and I wanted to make this post as an FYI to anyone thinking about investing in the game.

Edit 4: 50% of psychonauts 2 funding is from investors. This amount has not been collected yet and if FIG only collected 50% of these investments, which seems optimistic, (it's been 9 months, investors didn't need to put money down, the terms are awful), then FIG will have only collected 75% of the funds it wanted for psychonauts 2.

Edit 5: As the CEO of FIG pointed out on page 5, this break-even is based on a dividend payout of 30% (the minimum currently in the offering). FIG can increase the dividend if they choose (although they have no obligation to do so). However, even if the dividend were increased to 100%, it would take $36M of revenue before investors broke even on their investment, instead of $120M.

Edit 6: Now only 650K copies at $60 need to be sold for investors to break even. Much more achievable then 2M.
Nategc20
Banned
(10-17-2016, 02:03 AM)
Good luck.
DNAbro
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:04 AM)
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Well good luck with that.
GhostBed
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:04 AM)
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Wow. I can just not see that happening.
RecRoulette
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:04 AM)
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Yikes.

Edit: Wait, Psychonauts never broke 2 million in it's lifetime!? Double yikes.
Dash_Riprock
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:04 AM)
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Hope no one was hoping for Psychonauts 3...
BronsonLee
Banned
(10-17-2016, 02:05 AM)
flip
flop

flip flip flop
hamchan
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:05 AM)
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Yeah that ain't happening.
DeputyVanHalen
Junior Member
(10-17-2016, 02:05 AM)
I guess that means most potential investors will pass.
Randomizer
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:06 AM)
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Ouch.
King_Moc
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:06 AM)
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Oh well.
TheSpoiler
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:06 AM)
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No. It won't happen. I won't even say good luck because PN is a niche game despite how much the fanbase praises it. There's no way it'll make those 2 million copies at 60 bucks Games drop in price too fast these days unless you are a heavy hitter.
Ashtar
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:07 AM)
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Well good thing they changed it before people invested in it
Matt
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:08 AM)
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Obviously that's not happening.
James Scott
Banned
(10-17-2016, 02:08 AM)
Fig seems like a poor concept at this point. At best it seems like it's kickstarter but you might be able to make some of your money back. Don't think we'll see cases of people making a notable sum of money from this outside of Schafer
ElMexiMerican
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:09 AM)
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I don't see why anyone would invest in this after seeing that.
mrmickfran
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:10 AM)
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rip
Outtrigger888
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:10 AM)
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I thought the game had a budget of 12 million? This doesn't make any sense.
KingBroly
Banned
(10-17-2016, 02:11 AM)
I doubt it hits a million copies
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
(10-17-2016, 02:12 AM)
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Now you too can find out why game publishers told Tim Schafer to take a hike for this low low high price!
DriftingSpirit
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:12 AM)
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RIP
Quonny
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:13 AM)
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LOL
Bronetta
Ask me about the moon landing or the temperature at which jet fuel burns. You may be surprised at what you learn.
(10-17-2016, 02:13 AM)
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Originally Posted by KingBroly

I doubt it hits a million copies

I doubt it even hits 500,000
shouamabane
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:13 AM)
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I can't remember the last time I paid $60 for a game.
Tuck
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:13 AM)
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Uh that... doesn't sound like a realistic sales goal. Doubt it will even hit a million.
Admiral Woofington
m'Souls, m'lady
(10-17-2016, 02:14 AM)
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so a cool method for gamers to invest that might die because it started on a very niche game
Valahart
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:14 AM)
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Well, that makes me sad as if I remember it right at least 50% of the games support was from investors.

I hope the game is still as good as the first though.
HStallion
Now what's the next step in your master plan?
(10-17-2016, 02:14 AM)
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I would still consider donating at this point but I would not be expecting any of my investment back. The money would simply be there to make sure the game comes out as I adored the original. We shall see if I do drop some money and it will be nowhere near $1000 but I fully acknowledge the insurmountable odds in making any actual money on this.
hollomat
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:15 AM)

Originally Posted by James Scott

Fig seems like a poor concept at this point. At best it seems like it's kickstarter but you might be able to make some of your money back. Don't think we'll see cases of people making a notable sum of money from this outside of Schafer

I think its far worse than Kickstarter. At least with Kickstarter or even as a Fig backer (not investor), you get a copy of the game. As an investor you aren't even entitled to a copy of the game (although they may give you one as a show of good will).
TheSpoiler
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:15 AM)
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Originally Posted by Admiral Woofington

so a cool method for gamers to invest that might die because it started on a very niche game

To be fair, I wonder how many games are going to be able to give back to their investors. Middle and indie games that make it big absolutely could, but those are far and few.
Scum
Junior Member
(10-17-2016, 02:17 AM)
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pizzacat
Banned
(10-17-2016, 02:17 AM)
this disappointment gonna hurt harder
Matt
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:17 AM)
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Originally Posted by Admiral Woofington

so a cool method for gamers to invest that might die because it started on a very niche game

It's a very flimsy concept and was likely never going to work out very well.

And no mainstream game was ever going to be funded this way.
Poetic.Injustice
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:18 AM)
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I don't understand why they didn't just go with Kickstarter again.
t26
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:19 AM)

Originally Posted by Poetic.Injustice

I don't understand why they didn't just go with Kickstarter again.

The numbers won't be that much different, and they have to give a cut to KS.
friskykillface
Banned
(10-17-2016, 02:19 AM)
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Ouch , good luck with that
jabberwocker
Banned
(10-17-2016, 02:20 AM)
Bs. It won't cost half that to make. Or shouldn't. That's $60 million gtfo.
Salty Rice
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:20 AM)
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Not the best investment you can do because this is just wishful thinking.
truestatic
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:21 AM)

Originally Posted by Admiral Woofington

so a cool method for gamers to invest that might die because it started on a very niche game

I feel like any game that could make a convincing pitch wouldn't have to resort to Fig for funding.
Valonquar
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:22 AM)
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that's a new level of shade right there.
hollomat
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:22 AM)

Originally Posted by jabberwocker

Bs. It won't cost half that to make. Or shouldn't. That's $60 million gtfo.

It won't. Based on their estimates it'll cost under $12M to make.

The majority of the revenue received though goes to Double Fine and the unnamed Large Investor. A small portion of the revenue goes to Fig Investors which is why the break-even point for them is so high.

The break-even point for Double Fine and the unnamed Large Investor is much smaller.

If you want to see the revenue split, it's all in the SEC document at:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...publishing.htm

Basically, if the game sells for $60, of that $60, only $2.83 goes to Fig Investors. There will be 6000 shares at $500 each, so if you invested $1000, you get 2/6000*$2.83 for each copy sold. Or 1/100 of a penny.
Leafhopper
Banned
(10-17-2016, 02:22 AM)
Yeah, I liked Psychonauts 1 but, it wasn't exactly the biggest seller.

RIP I guess.
Lake Effect Kid
Banned
(10-17-2016, 02:23 AM)
_Ryo_
(10-17-2016, 02:23 AM)
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So... what happens to the game if the would be investors decide not to invest now? It gets canceled? Or will investors "kickstart" it on fig? Can you still even do that?
Y2Kev
TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
(10-17-2016, 02:24 AM)
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Wait, what happened to people who pledged as investors previously? Was that possible?
edit: I see your edit. Um...

...not sure what to say?
funkystudent
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:25 AM)
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TLDR: Pyschonauts 2 on fig was advertised as needing to sell 1.7M copies at a wholesale price of $21 for investors to get an 80% return.

Now that people can actually invest, the terms have changed and it needs to sell over 2M copies at a retail price of $60 for investors to get a 0% return.


bbd23
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:25 AM)
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I already forgot the game even existed.

good luck
More_Badass
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:27 AM)
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Originally Posted by truestatic

I feel like any game that could make a convincing pitch wouldn't have to resort to Fig for funding.

Consortium wasn't successful on Kickstarter despite having the kind of campaign people always say they want (tons of gameplay, frequent updates, concise yet detailed info, breakdown of funds, already delivered on their first game and then some, etc.)

I'm curious how Outer Wilds and Make Sail would have done. Outer Wilds is niche enough that I don't think it would have made it despite being an IGF winner and proven concept.
hollomat
Member
(10-17-2016, 02:27 AM)

Originally Posted by Y2Kev

Wait, what happened to people who pledged as investors previously? Was that possible?

Not sure what happened to them, but you could only pledge previously if you were an accredited investor (have net worth over $1 million or make over $200k a year). Since there only seems to be one investment vehicle though and one offering document for it, I'd imagine that they have the same break-even as the new investors though.

There used to be a breakeven calculation on the website, similar to the one in the polygon article.

http://siliconangle.com/blog/2015/12...psychonauts-2/

It's been removed though now that the new investment terms are available at:

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/d...publishing.htm

And I strongly suspect its because they don't want people to see what the real break even point is.
Fury451
Banned
(10-17-2016, 02:29 AM)
Psychonauts is the definition of a cult hit so these expectations are dead on arrival.

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