(Wedbush) March NPD Preview (400k Wii, 250k 360, 250k DS, 165k PS3)

[sonycowboy]

Remember the official NPD prediction thread is here:

Courtesy of Wedbush Morgan:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthre...ght=prediction

March 2007 Video Game Sales Preview: Expect 3% Sales Growth We expect March U.S. retail video game console software sales data to be released after market close on Thursday, April 19. We forecast sales of $515 million, up 3% compared to last year’s $501 million. Our estimate reflects $305 million in sales contribution from new platforms (PS3, Wii, 360, PSP and DS) and current generation software sales of $210 million. Our forecast presumes sell-through of 165,000 PS3 and 400,000 Wii hardware systems. Our forecast also assumes PS2 software sales of $155 million, although we expect relatively modest declines in PS2 sales for the middle part of 2007, when a strong slate of mass-market titles will be released. Sales growth over the last nine months has averaged a robust 16%. We continue to expect contribution from next generation software sales to grow on a year-over-year basis throughout 2007, more than offsetting modest declines in current generation software sales. We expect March sales of $515 million (up 3% compared to March 2006’s $501 million). We note that March poses tough comparisons, with three titles (Kingdom Hearts II, GRAW, and Elder Scrolls IV) selling very well last year, partially offset by GRAW 2 and God of War II this year. We expect next generation software sales of $305 million and current-generation software sales of $210 million. Our estimates include $90 million in software sales for the PS3 and Wii, which is based on our expectation of a tie ratio of around 3.0 units for each hardware unit sold (400,000 Wii plus 165,000 PS3).We expect March sales to be driven by new releases Ubisoft’s Ghost Recon Advanced Warfighter 2 (360), Sony’s God of War II (PS2), and Electronic Arts’ Command & Conquer 3 Tiberium Wars (PC). We also expect modest contribution from Activision’s Guitar Hero II (360), which launched on April 3. Our views for console hardware sales are as follows: Wii 400,000 PS3 165,000 Xbox 360 250,000 PS2 250,000 PSP 210,000 DS 250,000 GBA 165,000 We expect the recent sales strength on the PS2 to continue beyond March, given strong sell-through performance over the past nine months and a phenomenal lineup of mass-market games expected in April-July. We note that positive comparisons for PS2 software sales begin in April, making continued sales strength more difficult. However, we expect a high level of software support for the PS2 platform for the foreseeable future, and expect only modest year-over-year declines (approximately 20%) for the first half of 2007. Over the next four months, we expect the PS2 versions of Spider-Man 3, Shrek the Third, Ratatouille, Transformers, The Simpsons and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix to sell more units than on any other platforms. The degree of decline in the second half of the year will depend upon next generation console sales, as most next generation consoles are likely replacements for current generation consoles.

[felipeko]

250k DS seems low, 400k wii seems high..

[JB1981]

my god the wii

my god

[DeaconKnowledge]

Sounds ok to me.

I wonder what changed their mind about being bullish on the PS3 and bearish on the Wii?

[Diablos54]

It seems no one can decide the winner of the big battle this gen!

GBA 165,000 PS3 165,000

The rest of the numbers seem solid. The positions of the systems seem right at least.

[Roders5]

PS3 165,000 GBA 165,000

Chickens

[Chiggs]

March excitement alright, but for the wrong company.

[Batongen]

How can ps2 still sell around 250k?! Shouldn't everyone in America have one by now?

[BuzzJive]

Over the next four months, we expect the PS2 versions of Spider-Man 3, Shrek the Third, Ratatouille, Transformers, The Simpsons and Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix to sell more units than on any other platforms.

Did I miss a Simpsons game announcement? Is there real info out there somewhere?

[GhaleonEB]

Wii 400,000 - sounds about right
PS3 165,000 - yup
Xbox 360 250,000 - hmmm maybe a bit low
PS2 250,000 - too low
PSP 210,000 - too low - had five days of price cut on it
DS 250,000 - waaaaay too low
GBA 165,000 - The Returning Champ

[fresquito]

250k DS? Sounds way off...

[jjasper]

You should be able to go and easily find a wii on 11/19.

[TheKingsCrown]

HOLY SHIT (if right)

[Sean]

we need to know the winner!

[mood]

GBA PS3 stalemate? There must be a victor

[DeceitDecide]

This is just an estimate, right? Not the actual NPD numbers.

[Dunpeal]

Wii at 400k in march? Don't see it happening.

[Hcoregamer00]

250k DS seems low, 400k wii seems high..

Bingo....

Wait, I guessed the reverse in the prediction thread.

[Smiles and Cries]

O_o I'm shocked... have they been wrong?

[GhaleonEB]

This is just an estimate, right? Not the actual NPD numbers.

It's a preview.

We expect March U.S. retail video game console software sales data to be released after market close on Thursday, April 19. We forecast sales of

[LOCK]

DS will double that number.

More like 500,000k.

[argon]

Have we had complete unit predictions from Pachter before? The best part is that we can include him in the NPD prediction thread this month!

I wonder where he will rank?

[GhaleonEB]

O_o I'm shocked... have they been wrong?

Is this a rhetorical question?

[NinSoX]

Pretty good numbers for the 360. I don't remember any significant releases in March.

[Chiggs]

How can ps2 still sell around 250k?

Why is this still being asked?

Prediction for April NPD Thread:

"OMG THE PS2 IS STILL SELLING!!! HOW CAN IT DO THAT WITH SUCH A LOW PRICE AND AMAZING GAME SELECTION!!"

Christ, can we drop this already?

[Hiro_Kunimi_80]

have they been wrong?

a lot (Dec06 anyone ? )

[Saoh]

we need to know the winner!

[Zombie James]

PS2 and 360 numbers seem low.

[Stop It]

All of those figures are withing a safe margin of my predictions except the DS, which I predicted at 500k+, why they thought the DS only sold 50k a week is beyond me.

[Y2Kev]

my god the wii my god

TEH CARNAGE KING

THE CARNAGE

[f_elz]

seems about right

[Firestorm]

we need to know the winner!

The next gen battle is heating up!

[Tieno]

my god the wii my god

[Sypher]

400k? The only time ive ever seen one was 3am at Walmart. Is Nintendo counting every 2 Gamecube sales as well?

[starship]

These estimates sounds about right to me.

[Taker666]

All of those figures are withing a safe margin of my predictions except the DS, which I predicted at 500k+, why they thought the DS only sold 50k a week is beyond me.

Maybe it was out of stock again (it was out of stock at amazon for a good portion of the month)..they would also want to build up stock for Pokemon.

[OnWarmerMusic]

PS3 165,000 GBA 165,000

The NPD thread next week is going to be so ****ing awesome.

[Bad_Boy]

400k? The only time ive ever seen one was 3am at Walmart. Is Nintendo counting every 2 Gamecube sales as well?

I see what you did there.

[Dunpeal]

PS2 and 360 numbers seem low.

? How.

March is a slow hardware month people...it's the Wii number that seems way too high.

we need to know the winner!

At Backlash

[Dr. Kitty Muffins]

I'm beginning to think you don't need the best hardware or the best games to sell systems anymore. Like the Ipod, you just need the best branding.

[Sypher]

This is just U.S. right? I'm much more interested in UK numbers right now.

[Smiles and Cries]

a lot (Dec06 anyone ? )

Let them be wrong about the Wii numbers... Nintendo may get lazy if it does this well

[teepo]

I'm beginning to think you don't need the best hardware or the best games to sell systems anymore. Like the Ipod, you just need the best branding.

the ipod did become the best though

[meltpotato]

Pretty good numbers for the 360. I don't remember any significant releases in March.

shut your mouth: EDF :)

[norinrad21]

400k? The only time ive ever seen one was 3am at Walmart. Is Nintendo counting every 2 Gamecube sales as well?

Hello Junior

[Hcoregamer00]

I'm beginning to think you don't need the best hardware or the best games to sell systems anymore. Like the Ipod, you just need the best branding.

Or the best mindshare....

Perception > Marketing, branding, hype

[Safe Bet]

OMFG I'M NICHE!!!

*spontaneous combustion*

PUT ME OUT!!!

PUT ME OUT FOR PITY'S SAKE!!!

[Sypher]

Hello Junior

Hello!

[ylvis_]

So the DS sold 485k last month, which was a 4 weeks month, and now it sold 250k in a 5 weeks month? Where's the logic?

[Tieno]

So the DS sold 485k last month, which was a 4 weeks month, and now it sold 250k in a 5 weeks month? Where's the logic?

Did you expect logic? That doesn't make sense.