[gofreak]

This is the third week of 50k+ First was week after slim, second was Vesperia, this is the week after Vesperia.

Ah, thanks. That's unexpected then.

[iceatcs]

what happened there? sold out? :lol :lol

It is PS2, it could be stock problem because PAL launch was on this week.


Wow PS3 doing really well, about 300k for first month. Hope it will steady well.
Looking forward next week with Wii new price.

[JoshuaJSlone]

what happened there? sold out? :lol :lol

Yeah, pretty much. PS2 supply didn't look so bad for most of the year, but when they finally needed to start supplying regions outside of Japan they couldn't really keep up and there wasn't much of a holiday bump. Here's September 2000 - January 2001.

[markatisu]

95% average student first term, doesn't bother going to class second term and instead spends his mad scholarship scrilla on booze, hookers and blow. Ends year with a 60%.

D's get degrees baby

[le.phat]

50k for PS3 to me is unexplainable. Here's your fucking money Namco, now localize the game. oh and bring Ace Combat to PS3 you stupid morons.

quote

[Dolla Dolla]

It's the fourth. There was a week between Launch and ToV with 57k.

Not counting the slim launch, it's the third week of 50k, as DMJ says.

(MC) 8/31 - 9/6 - 151k (slim launch)
(MC) 9/7 - 9/13 - 55k
(MC) 9/14 - 9/20 - 51k (Vesperia)
(Fam) 9/21 - 9/27 - 50k

[Raistlin]

Japan may be relevant still. Since when did PS3 start beating Wii?

since the price reduction

[gofreak]

It's crazy to think its first month in Japan has topped even 'good' months for the PS3 in the US, better than August even with it's 2 weeks of $299.

I expect some disruption next week from Wii. It'll be very interesting to compare to Sept NPD.

[gerg]

I was wrong.

NSMB better be a messiah or Nintendo's screwed.

[Eteric Rice]

I was wrong. NSMB better be a messiah or Nintendo's screwed.

Err, I wouldn't say they're screwed if NSMB doesn't work out, they're still a few million units ahead of the PS3 as far as I know.

I'm thinking if NSMB Wii doesn't pan out, they may need to consider a relaunch with better features/design.

[obaidr]

I was wrong. NSMB better be a messiah or Nintendo's screwed.

If we are talking about hardware sales how could a mario game which is more or less a remake of existing mario game increase the hardware sales? How this game good be the messiah and attract more people then galaxy did? It will be a multimillion seller without question but not a system seller this late in the life cycle.

[Eteric Rice]

If we are talking about hardware sales how could a mario game which is more or less a remake of existing mario game increase the hardware sales? How this game good be the messiah and attract more people then galaxy did? It will be a multimillion seller without question but not a system seller this late in the life cycle.

Uh, it's not a remake. And 3D and 2D mario are two different beasts according to the DS.

How that will work on a console, I don't know.

[Blablurn]

Yeah, pretty much. PS2 supply didn't look so bad for most of the year, but when they finally needed to start supplying regions outside of Japan they couldn't really keep up and there wasn't much of a holiday bump. Here's September 2000 - January 2001.

wow, didn't know that! thank you for the information, dude!

[donny2112]

Uh, it's not a remake.

Dude, Super Mario Bros. 2/The Lost Levels was totally a remake of Super Mario Bros. 1. Didn't you see that the graphics looked really similar? The fact that the games themselves were totally different doesn't matter.

[obaidr]

Uh, it's not a remake. And 3D and 2D mario are two different beasts according to the DS. How that will work on a console, I don't know.

yeah but my question was how this game can attract new users like my self for example to buy a Wii? It cant in my eyes since it is nothing new for the system. A jump and run game with mario as the star.

[donny2112]

A jump and run game with mario as the star.

That hasn't had a new entry be in 2-D on a console since 1991.

[gerg]

Err, I wouldn't say they're screwed if NSMB doesn't work out, they're still a few million units ahead of the PS3 as far as I know. I'm thinking if NSMB Wii doesn't pan out, they may need to consider a relaunch with better features/design.

NSMB is Nintendo's biggest bet this holiday season. They really want it to succeed.

Of course, underlying this whole discussion is the increasing irrelevance of console gaming in Japan.

If we are talking about hardware sales how could a mario game which is more or less a remake of existing mario game increase the hardware sales? How this game good be the messiah and attract more people then galaxy did? It will be a multimillion seller without question but not a system seller this late in the life cycle.

NSMB Wii mixes the values that seem to be popular with Nintendo's target audience, along with a theme that has not yet appeared on the Wii. You underestimate the difference in appeal between 2D and 3D Mario.

[gofreak]

I don't think we'll have to wait for NSMB to see a recovery in Nintendo's fortunes. I'm sure the price cut will kick sales back to a good level from next week.

edit - more correctly, Wii's fortunes

[Chris1964]

Impressive hold for PS3. Way higher than I predicted. I didn't expect it but next week we may see a fight between PS3 and Wii. Even if we assume that Silver Week helped PS3 a bit this time there will be no excuse next week if it manages to hold high again. So far the pattern doesn't continue.

famitsu:

-----------------------------------------------------------------
| System  | week 1 | week 2 | week 3 | week 4 | week 5 | week 6 |
|---------------------------------------------------------------|
|Black WII|  92.790|  46.000|  46.000|  25.540|  22.707|  18.087|
| Slim PS3| 150.832|  54.289|  55.000|  50.000|        |        |
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Dragon Quest IX becomes this week (at least from the tracked sales we have) the best selling Dragon Quest. And it has many hundreds of thousands to sell yet.

Famitsu data:

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
|  |  Dragon Quest VII | Dragon Quest VIII |  Dragon Quest IX  |       difference     |
|--|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|----------|-----------|
| #|  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |  Weekly |   LTD   |DQIX-DQVII|DQIX-DQVIII|
|--|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|----------|-----------|
| 1|1.862.065|1.862.065|2.236.881|2.236.881|2.343.440|2.343.440|   481.375|    106.559|
| 2|1.072.286|2.934.351|  559.524|2.796.405|  602.856|2.946.296|    11.945|    149.891|
| 3|  329.317|3.263.668|  200.033|2.996.438|  271.206|3.217.502|   -46.166|    221.064|
| 4|  154.797|3.418.465|  116.731|3.113.169|  172.728|3.390.230|   -28.235|    277.061|
| 5|   83.918|3.502.383|  118.119|3.231.288|  106.514|3.496.744|    -5.639|    265.456|
| 6|   64.351|3.566.734|   95.879|3.327.167|  121.139|3.617.883|    51.149|    290.716|
| 7|   43.717|3.610.451|   56.945|3.384.112|   79.452|3.697.335|    86.884|    313.223|
| 8|   33.852|3.644.302|   22.175|3.406.287|   68.125|3.765.460|   120.158|    359.173|
| 9|   21.429|3.665.731|   11.611|3.417.898|   52.135|3.817.595|   151.864|    399.697|
|10|   18.191|3.683.923|   11.293|3.429.191|   38.293|3.855.888|   171.965|    426.697|
|11|   18.360|3.702.283|    9.892|3.439.083|   36.000|3.892.000|   189.717|    452.917|
|12|   13.941|3.716.224|    9.389|3.448.472|   34.000|3.925.000|   208.776|    476.528|
|13|   10.541|3.726.765|    7.403|3.455.875|         |         |          |           |
|14|    8.841|3.735.606|    6.698|3.462.573|         |         |          |           |
|15|    9.147|3.744.754|    6.490|3.469.063|         |         |          |           |
|16|    8.903|3.753.657|    5.103|3.474.166|         |         |          |           |
|17|        -|        -|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|18|        -|        -|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|19|   10.769|3.784.682|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|20|   15.632|3.800.315|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|21|    5.634|3.805.949|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|22|    5.643|3.811.591|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|23|    6.190|3.817.781|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|24|    4.184|3.821.965|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|25|    4.406|3.826.371|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|26|    5.227|3.831.598|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|27|    3.848|3.835.446|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|28|    5.083|3.840.529|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|29|    4.859|3.845.388|        -|        -|         |         |          |           |
|--|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|---------|----------|-----------|
| -|   LTD   |3.893.293|   LTD   |3.538.860|   LTD   |3.925.000|    31.707|    386.140|
| -|  LTD 2  |3.893.293|  LTD 2  |3.677.560|  LTD 2  |3.925.000|    31.707|    247.440|
| -|shipments|4.150.000|shipments|3.700.000|shipments|4.000.000|  -150.000|    300.000|
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*LTD 2 includes BEST releases
[PS2] Dragon Quest VIII (Ultimate Hits) (Square Enix) (20/07/06) - 138.700	
[PS1] Dragon Quest VII (PSOne Books) (Square Enix) (02/03/05) (didn't chart)
[PS1] Dragon Quest VII (Ultimate Hits) (Square Enix) (20/07/06) (didn't chart)

[slaughterking]

Yay, DQXI. Now on the way to 4 million!

[JoshuaJSlone]

Note on Dragon Quest IX: Though there are games that it won't outsell, I was wondering if it was the quickest to reach its current heights, since most of the games we see at 4+ million are there thanks to loooong legs. However, it seems like Pokémon Ruby/Sapphire and Diamond/Pearl are just a bit quicker to 4 million.

Since these are using final Famitsu numbers DQ IX is a bit behind what we see in Chris1964's posts, but it's looking like DQ IX will hit 4 million around week 15, compared to 12 for RuSa and 13 or 14 for DiaPear (there was a combined week).

Quickest to 3.5 million... I think so.

[Zorglub]

Will DQIX be the first non-nintendo-edited-games to reach 4 million in japan ?

[Chris1964]

Yay, DQIX. Now on the way to 5 million!

Fixed:D

[zero_suit]

Fixed:D

Not happening..I'd say 4.5 million at the most.

[slaughterking]

Fixed:D

One milestone at a time. ;0

[Regulus Tera]

One milestone at a time. ;0

Next battle: Dragon Quest IX vs. Final Fantasy VII!

[Dragona Akehi]

Not happening..I'd say 4.5 million at the most.

I'm pretty sure at this point that five million shipped is pretty possible.

[slaughterking]

Next battle: Dragon Quest IX vs. Final Fantasy VII!

Hm? It would have to do negative numbers to compete with FFVII.

[Chris1964]

The last three weeks DQ IX has sold almost the same amount of units. If it holds over 30K and the next week (the week after Silver Week) and the holidays boost its sales by a respectable margin, 5M are still a possibility. Don't forget many people didn't expect it to make even 4M. As of now it doesn't follow the sales trend of previous Dragon Quests, so there is still some hope.

[Regulus Tera]

Hm? It would have to do negative numbers to compete with FFVII.

Didn't the multiple re-releases of FFVII put it ahead of DQVII?

[slaughterking]

Didn't the multiple re-releases of FFVII put it ahead of DQVII?

You're right according to Captain Smoker. :o

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...&postcount=203

[Chris1964]

Captain Smoker's list has the combined sales of FF VII at 3.937.900. Next week DQ IX will become the best selling non Nintendo game in Japan. One or two weeks after that it will become the first non Nintendo game to sell over 4M. Every week a new record for DQ IX.

[gkryhewy]

very impressive stability for the PS3 numbers. I'd be interested in hearing some sentiment from GAFers in Japan: does this feel semi-permanent?

[Vinnk]

very impressive stability for the PS3 numbers. I'd be interested in hearing some sentiment from GAFers in Japan: does this feel semi-permanent?

Hard to say. Lots of used fat PS3s coming in at my local shops so some people are upgrading but not nearly enough for those numbers so Sony is bringing in new people for sure. And with some good titles on the way, might just keep them. However outside of the "hardcore" gaming circles, I don't here a lot about the PS3. A few of my non-gamer friends (who know I like games) mentioned the Wii price drop. And it has been on the news. Still there doesn't seem to be much hype at the gaming shops. Maybe it would be better to check the department stores, as that seems to be where a lot of Wii are purchased.

To tell the truth, I have a hard time making any prediction now. These last 3 years have been crazy...

[Kenka]

Didn't the multiple re-releases of FFVII put it ahead of DQVII?

It's not quite a battle. But seeing it rush past FF VII will be a nice show in the forthcoming weeks :)

The "battle" for the next months will actually be more between Poké et DQ. But we will know more by the end of the holidays.

[gkryhewy]

Hard to say. Lots of used fat PS3s coming in at my local shops so some people are upgrading but not nearly enough for those numbers so Sony is bringing in new people for sure. And with some good titles on the way, might just keep them. However outside of the "hardcore" gaming circles, I don't here a lot about the PS3. A few of my non-gamer friends (who know I like games) mentioned the Wii price drop. And it has been on the news. Still there doesn't seem to be much hype at the gaming shops. Maybe it would be better to check the department stores, as that seems to be where a lot of Wii are purchased. To tell the truth, I have a hard time making any prediction now. These last 3 years have been crazy...

Thanks for the impressions, Vinnk.

[slaughterking]

It's not quite a battle. But seeing it rush past FF VII will be a nice show in the forthcoming weeks :)

That's merely a matter of one week. :p

[thestopsign]

Looking at the PS3 numbers, I'm not too surprised. This week is the so-called Silver Week, so that probably helped to sustain numbers. It even increased numbers for certain games like Tomodachi and Monster Hunter. I'm betting for a large dropoff next week.

[Kenka]

That's merely a matter of one week. :p

[michaeljacksonpopcorn.jpg] :)

[Firewire]

Lowest for each from Famitsu: X360: 2006-02-27 1,020 2006-07-10 1,020 2006-08-21 1,004 2006-09-04 911 2006-09-11 854 2008-09-01 843 3,700 is actually right in the middle for X360. PS2 2009-05-11 4,373 2009-08-24 4,125 2009-08-31 3,688 2000-11-27 3,306 2009-09-07 3,174 So yeah, PS2 is finally winding down enough to outdo the lows it hit during early shortages. 25 of its lowest 26 weeks are from this year.

Wow those are some low numbers.

[Graphics Horse]

Looking at the PS3 numbers, I'm not too surprised. This week is the so-called Silver Week, so that probably helped to sustain numbers. It even increased numbers for certain games like Tomodachi and Monster Hunter. I'm betting for a large dropoff next week.

I've seen Silver week mentioned before, but it doesn't seem to have had any noticable effect on sales of other consoles.

[KuwabaraTheMan]

Fixed:D

Wada redeemed.

A month ago I wasn't sure if it was possible, but now I really do think that Dragon Quest IX should reach 5 million sold in Japan. It's not going to happen overnight, but it will happen eventually.

[markatisu]

I've seen Silver week mentioned before, but it doesn't seem to have had any noticable effect on sales of other consoles.

Didn't it just keep everything on level? The PS3 did not fall too much and the Wii/PSP stayed shitty in comparison?

Its not like the PS3 rose to the heavens while everything else stumbled

[thestopsign]

I've seen Silver week mentioned before, but it doesn't seem to have had any noticable effect on sales of other consoles.

Hmmm... it looks like you're right. It could be having a more pronounced effect on the PS3 because it does have a new model out. Even without the holiday I bet the PS3 would have been around 45k anyways, so it really probably is negligible.

[Graphics Horse]

Didn't it just keep everything on level? The PS3 did not fall too much and the Wii/PSP stayed shitty in comparison? Its not like the PS3 rose to the heavens while everything else stumbled

Yeah that's what I mean, the other consoles stayed the same, and so the PS3 probably wasn't affected much either.

[spwolf]

Looking at the PS3 numbers, I'm not too surprised. This week is the so-called Silver Week, so that probably helped to sustain numbers. It even increased numbers for certain games like Tomodachi and Monster Hunter. I'm betting for a large dropoff next week.

next week for sure.... just which one?

:lol

[thestopsign]

next week for sure.... just which one? :lol

I bet it drops to below 40k next week. In fact, I'd be very surprised if it didn't. I guess we'll just have to wait and see though.

[gerg]

next week for sure.... just which one? :lol

There's only ever one "next week", no?

[BlazingDarkness]

would it be silly to suggest that the PS3 is taking away from PSP numbers?
The PSP has been really low numbers since around the time the Slim released

Perhaps many Japanese decided to buy a PSP in favor of PS3 because it was a less expensive option?

[Liabe Brave]

Well, the possibility I mentioned in another thread has come to pass: the PS3 has sold more this month than 360 has all year. (Yes, I know that says more about Microsoft's utter failure in Japan than Sony's success; that was the original context I mentioned it in.)

Seriously, 50k for PS3 this week is too high. Unless we buy the shaky argument about Silver Week, it seems somewhat at odds with standard decay patterns. I certainly expect PS3 to fall off heavily next week, but then I expected it this week too.

Stuff like this makes me question the possibility of ever developing strong prediction tools for sales. It seems like more of an art than even meteorology. Props to the people who are actually good at it (though pretty much all of them seem surprised this week, too!).