[Luckyman]

Anyway, nice sales for U2. I'm quite surprised.

If the ratio is the same it should debut 600k+ in the NPD

[Dragona Akehi]

I still say that if FFXIII can't hit a LTD greater than 1.5 million it's a "bomba".

[schuelma]

I still say that if FFXIII can't hit a LTD greater than 1.5 million it's a "bomba".

You have pretty low expectations for bomba!

But seriously..that would be a major disappointment IMO.

[inner-G]

You have pretty low expectations for bomba! But seriously..that would be a major disappointment IMO.

1.5 Million copies in Japan = bomba?

smh

[Cosmonaut X]

1.5 Million copies in Japan = bomba? smh

It would be a fairly hefty decline for the series...

[sprsk]

1.5 Million copies in Japan = bomba? smh

It's Final Fantasy.

[Dragona Akehi]

1.5 Million copies in Japan = bomba? smh

The series has done approximately 2.2-2.3 million LTD in the last few releases. 1.5 million or less is an enormous drop.

This isn't even considering the absolutely ludicrous budget FFXIII has required.

[typhonsentra]

A bit surprised to see PS3 edge out a small win this week, and with a ton of variety in software performing too.

[Aru]

You missing the obvious. They're going to port Godhand to the Wii, complete with motion controls for all the gag moves and spanking!

That would be pretty awesome btw :lol

[DeaconKnowledge]

Did Square say they were going to ship 1 million?

I dunno, I think it's most definitely slip, but 1.5M is dangerously low for a FF. I think it'sll beat that.

[Rolf NB]

It would be a fairly hefty decline for the series...

Many home console franchises have declined along with the Japanese home console market.

[DMeisterJ]

The series has done approximately 2.2-2.3 million LTD in the last few releases. 1.5 million or less is an enormous drop. This isn't even considering the absolutely ludicrous budget FFXIII has required.

Is it considering the low install base of the PS3?

[typhonsentra]

Did Square say they were going to ship 1 million?

No these are estimates by Famitsu, most likely calculated through interviews with retail partners or something similar.

[inner-G]

The series has done approximately 2.2-2.3 million LTD in the last few releases. 1.5 million or less is an enormous drop. This isn't even considering the absolutely ludicrous budget FFXIII has required.

Of course it's a big drop. I just don't think anything selling over a million copies in Japan is really a 'bomba'.

[jcm]

I'd be surprised to see FF13 do much more than 1.5M. That would give it an attach rate similar to Wii Sports'.

[typhonsentra]

It depends on if you think of "Bomba" as a disaster for the company or just playfully use it for any disappointment. I doubt Square believes the game will sell as well as FF12 seeing as how the series has been trending downward ever since 8 (12 less than 10, 10 less than 9, 9 less than 8.... all by a significant margin too), plus they're making it multiplatform which is probably a sign of reduced expectations. For games the best definition in my opinion is where the game both fails to recoup it's production/marketing costs and fails to sell through it's initial stock by a significant margin, creating a situation where either the publisher has to buy back the unsold games ala E.T. or they go on fire sale for a fraction of the initial price.

[charlequin]

Is it considering the low install base of the PS3?

Err... yes? This isn't kindergarten, people don't get a gold star for succeeding against lowered expectations.

[gogogow]

I doubt Square believes the game will sell as well as FF12 seeing as how the series has been trending downward ever since 8 (12 less than 10, 10 less than 9, 9 less than 8.... all by a significant margin too)

FFX sold 2674 copies more than FFXII. But yeah, I don't think XIII will sell as well as the PS2 ones.

[Culex]

It'll be interesting to see what the initial shipment is for Crystal Bearers. I'm betting 500k.

[thestopsign]

It'll be interesting to see what the initial shipment is for Crystal Bearers. I'm betting 500k.

I'm betting you're wrong by a margin of over 400%.

[Parl]

No way is it shipping 2.5 mil.

[thestopsign]

No way is it shipping 2.5 mil.

I guess that is a little to optimistic, isn't it.

[DMeisterJ]

Err... yes? This isn't kindergarten, people don't get a gold star for succeeding against lowered expectations.

Of course not, but comparing FFXIII to XII or X with PS2s huge install base lead is probably something that should be taken into account with 'XIII needs to sell 1.5 mil or it's a bomba' when 1.5 mil could easily be 35-40% of the install base when it launches, which is a pretty high barrier to 'success'.

[thestopsign]

Of course not, but comparing FFXIII to XII or X with PS2s huge install base lead is probably something that should be taken into account with 'XIII needs to sell 1.5 mil or it's a bomba' when 1.5 mil could easily be 35-40% of the install base when it launches, which is a pretty high barrier to 'success'.

It's a high barrier of success that needs to be passed though. XIII undoubtedly has the highest budget out of any other Final Fantasy so far in the series, and Square-Enix won't be content with just barely breaking even. It's Final Fantasy, their second largest franchise (possibly largest in volume?) and pretty much is the series that puts food on all of their employee's tables.

[typhonsentra]

FFX sold 2674 copies more than FFXII. But yeah, I don't think XIII will sell as well as the PS2 ones.

Where's this figure come from?

It's a high barrier of success that needs to be passed though. XIII undoubtedly has the highest budget out of any other Final Fantasy so far in the series, and Square-Enix won't be content with just barely breaking even. It's Final Fantasy, their second largest franchise (possibly largest in volume?) and pretty much is the series that puts food on all of their employee's tables.

Perhaps but one thing a lot of people are ignoring is that a significant chunk of the cost went into developing the next-gen engine the game uses, and that they plan to reuse in many of their future releases. Few of us (If any) really have any clue how much the company will receive per unit after factoring in disc/packaging manufacturing and retail take but assuming it's even something ridiculously low as half the retail price and only reaches the estimated 1.5 million in Famitsu that's still $45 million dollars before multiplatform or international sales /special edition re-releases or even simply factoring in the addition revenue/profit from all of the special editions of the game.

[Warren Ellis]

with the xbox 360, this time ff will sell much better in the west.

[thestopsign]

Where's this figure come from?

PS2 - Final Fantasy X 2.325.215
PS2 - Final Fantasy XII 2.322.541

From Captain Smoker's LTDs. Final Fantasy X still outsold XII by quite a bit with its Greatest Hits and International Edition.

[Culex]

I'm betting you're wrong by a margin of over 400%.

500k is a respectable amount for a Final Fantasy offshoot. And I'm just saying that would be the initial shipment.

[Dragona Akehi]

It would be an utter miracle from the gods above and below for Crystal Bearers to hit one million in Japan.

Even 500k is going to take quite a bit of luck. I'd be surprised if it gets to 300k.

[batbeg]

500k is a respectable amount for a Final Fantasy offshoot. And I'm just saying that would be the initial shipment.

I'm betting an initial shipment of 200k, personally. I'd love for it to hit 500k ltd as I feel realistically it should at the very least match Dragon Quest Swords... but who knows.

[thestopsign]

500k is a respectable amount for a Final Fantasy offshoot. And I'm just saying that would be the initial shipment.

I was saying that it would only have a shipment of 125k, but I'm thinking that 150-175k sounds more likely.

[Yamauchi]

1.5 million for FF13 would be a mega bomba. I'm hoping it can sell at least as much as FF12, which was the worst performing game in the main FF series since FF3.

PS2 - Final Fantasy X 2.325.215 PS2 - Final Fantasy XII 2.322.541 From Captain Smoker's LTDs. Final Fantasy X still outsold XII by quite a bit with its Greatest Hits and International Edition.

Could be wrong, but I think all versions of FFX sold about 2.75 million.

[jaydogg691]

Hold on to that DS game, Drake.

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Crystal Bearers isn't on the Famitsu predictions, it isn't on comgnet or lepton top20-30 preorders either, its #16 on amazon wii-specific list, all this with less than a month to go. I really doubt it'll have a >100k first shipment. In fact I wonder if it'll do 100k at all...

FF13-wise, we'll see how SE markets it and how preorders and general buzz is when the launch is nearer. Right now its hard to expect more confidence than what Famitsu has. But hey, we'll always have my favourite MH3 line I read here "Its the best selling 3rd party game on consoles this gen, if its a bomb, all the others are too".

[gogogow]

Could be wrong, but I think all versions of FFX sold about 2.75 million.

Yes, but FFX had 5 (6, if you include X & X-2 Ultimate Hits pack) versions, while FFXII had only 2.

[donny2112]

FFXIII - 1.5m FW / 1.8-1.9m LTD
FFCC:TCB - 250K FW / 400K LTD
SM3 - 125K FW / 250K LTD

[schuelma]

Crystal Bearers is going to be lucky to do 200K, if that.

Its not a traditional FF game, its not a traditional CC game..I think it falls by the wayside.

[zoku88]

Hold on to that DS game, Drake.

He just wants love.

[Nuclear Muffin]

1.5 mil sounds about right for FF13's LTD. The userbase of the PS3 is just too low for FF13 to sell as much as previous games in the series.

More than ever, FF will have to rely on its western sales to pick up the slack (Where I reckon it might have a decent shot at surpassing FF12's sales)

[ethelred]

13 will do fine. I think it'll do around or above 2 million.

The userbase for these games is still clearly around and active which is why games like Dissidia and Crisis Core have sold so well (becoming two of the best selling Final Fantasy spinoffs ever). If there are members of this fanbase that want 13 but for some reason don't want a PS3, they'll buy the system and resell it after.

[cvxfreak]

13 will do fine. I think it'll do around or above 2 million. The userbase for these games is still clearly around and active which is why games like Dissidia and Crisis Core have sold so well (becoming two of the best selling Final Fantasy spinoffs ever). If there are members of this fanbase that want 13 but for some reason don't want a PS3, they'll buy the system and resell it after.

They're both below FF Tactics, so they're not quite the top two, if that's what you were saying.

[ethelred]

They're both below FF Tactics, so they're not quite the top two, if that's what you were saying.

It isn't what I said.

[Takao]

The first real bomb was probably.... FMA DS - 29k

That one launched when the first anime series was well over, even in America IIRC. Wasn't there also another DS one, but I think it was a CCG or something?

[jcm]

13 will do fine. I think it'll do around or above 2 million. The userbase for these games is still clearly around and active which is why games like Dissidia and Crisis Core have sold so well (becoming two of the best selling Final Fantasy spinoffs ever). If there are members of this fanbase that want 13 but for some reason don't want a PS3, they'll buy the system and resell it after.

That would be about 50% of the install base. That seems high to me. Are there other games that have done that? It's probably tricky to check, since the install base is a moving target.

Does FF13 have anything to prevent used game sales? DLC, online, etc?

[duckroll]

That one launched when the first anime series was well over, even in America IIRC. Wasn't there also another DS one, but I think it was a CCG or something?

I don't think there's another title. But the new series obviously isn't as popular as the previous one too. Sales and ratings are all down in general, so it's not surprising that the games are suffering. It doesn't help that the Wii games from S-E this time round are visual adventures, and not even the action adventure games which sold so well on the PS2. Lolz.

[Chris1964]

Famitsu Estimates (October 2009) Title - First Shipment / Total Forecast [PS3] Final Fantasy 13 (Square Enix) FS 830K-1.04M / TF 1.00M-1.50M [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo) FS 610K-820K / TF 2.50M+ [NDS] Zelda no Densetsu: Daichi no Kiteki (Nintendo) FS 320K-430K / TF 810K-990K [NDS] Layton Kyouju to Majin no Fue (Level 5) FS 200K-270K / TF 540K-690K [PSP] Kidou Senshi Gundam: Gundam vs. Gundam Next Plus (Bandai Namco Games) FS 180K-240K / TF 360K-460K [NDS] Hikari no 4 Senshi: Final Fantasy Gaiden (Square Enix) FS 150K-200K / TF 160K-200K [PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 (Sega) FS 150K-200K / TF 230K-290K [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010 (Konami) FS 150K-190K / TF 360K-460K [PSP] Persona 3 Portable (Atlus) FS 110K-140K / TF 130K-180K [WII] Tales of Graces (Bandai Namco Games) FS 120K-170K / TF 180K-230K [WII] Sengoku Musou 3 (Koei) FS 100K-140K / TF 130K-160K [PS3] Bayonetta (Sega) FS 80K-110K / TF 110K-140K [WII] Mario & Sonic at Vancouver Olympics (Nintendo) FS 80K-110K / TF 410K-520K [PSP] J-League Pro Soccer Team wo Tsukurou! 6 (Sega) FS 80K-110K / TF 140K-180K [NDS] Mario & Sonic at Vancouver Olympics (Nintendo) FS 80K-110K / TF 230K-290K http://dubai.2ch.net/test/read.cgi/ghard/1255671846/634 Edit: P3P's FS/TF figures should switch places.

Famitsu estimates for these two games are complete opposite with the estimates of many gaffers. Low for the first and high for the second. It will be interesting to watch who is right but I am with famitsu. That + at the TF of NSMB Wii is funny. They also had 1.80M+ for Wii Fit Plus, number very low for what this game is going to sell when it's all said and done, which means that even they think that may underestimate the sales of NSMB Wii. So far my 3M prediction seems to agree with them.

[HK-47]

They're both below FF Tactics, so they're not quite the top two, if that's what you were saying.

Two of the best =/= The two best

[faridmon]

whoa, i don't if its anything important, but i had a dream about the exact discussion of this very page.

i spend on gaf too much:(

[Angelus Errare]

It depends on if you think of "Bomba" as a disaster for the company or just playfully use it for any disappointment. I doubt Square believes the game will sell as well as FF12 seeing as how the series has been trending downward ever since 8 (12 less than 10, 10 less than 9, 9 less than 8.... all by a significant margin too), plus they're making it multiplatform which is probably a sign of reduced expectations. For games the best definition in my opinion is where the game both fails to recoup it's production/marketing costs and fails to sell through it's initial stock by a significant margin, creating a situation where either the publisher has to buy back the unsold games ala E.T. or they go on fire sale for a fraction of the initial price.

I wouldn't say that FF12 sold less than FF10 by a significant margin. I mean in Japan if you you only count the original releases. FFX sold 2,323,463 to FFXII's 2,322,329

Now add in the ridiculous amount of re-releases FFX got to FFXII's one Zodiac release then it looks a little different.

[Takao]

I don't think there's another title. But the new series obviously isn't as popular as the previous one too. Sales and ratings are all down in general, so it's not surprising that the games are suffering. It doesn't help that the Wii games from S-E this time round are visual adventures, and not even the action adventure games which sold so well on the PS2. Lolz.

Guess it wasn't released in Japan or something.*

*Note= I've never actually seen this game in real life, I remember a Press Release announcing it, but never it hitting stores. Amazon says it hit NA on November 1, 2007, and carries an insane $60 price tag.