[onken]

I'm sure 3DS will sell by the truckload, thing is the DS has a HUGE back catalog that's only going to get cheaper, I just wonder if they'll be enough upgrade incentive for the mass-market.

[Spiegel]

I'm really talking about software and 3rd parties, basically overall mindshare in Japan. In that sense I think its domination is going to be more complete than the DS and push home consoles even more to the side than they already were.

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if we see, for example, FFXV and KH3 on 3DS. Having good graphical tecnology and the absence of a competitor (because psp2 is nowhere to be seen and psp will be dead next year) means that there's nothing stopping 3DS from getting all the japanese third party support and the biggest franchises. Third parties now know that portables is what Japan wants and they are heavily supporting the console from the start.

3DS is looking to be DS+PSP. And that's better for us, we'll have to buy only one console.

[onken]

3DS is looking to be DS+PSP. And that's better for us, we'll have to buy only one console.

3DS does look like a great all-rounder, but lack of competition is NEVER a good thing.

[schuelma]

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if we see, for example, FFXV and KH3 on 3DS. Having good graphical tecnology and the absence of a competitor (because psp2 is nowhere to be seen and psp will be dead next year) means that there's nothing stopping 3DS from getting all the japanese third party support and the biggest franchises. Third parties now know that portables is what Japan wants and they are heavily supporting the console from the start. 3DS is looking to be DS+PSP. And that's better for us, we'll have to buy only one console.

Yeah. In terms of the next generation of home consoles, I see 2 niches- the really really graphically intensive demanding audience, and the social multiplayer crowd. As far as your typical single player gamer, I think the 3DS will dominate that group of gamers and games.

[AranhaHunter]

Funny enough Galaxy 2 is cutting NSMBW legs, not the other way around. If only this could continue for some more time... EDIT: Aren't we exaggerating a bit about 3DS?

Not at all, I never even once thought of buying a DS even though DQ is a series I really enjoy. With the launch lineup and 3rd party support, I'm already thinking of getting a 3DS day one.

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if we see, for example, FFXV and KH3 on 3DS. Having good graphical tecnology and the absence of a competitor (because psp2 is nowhere to be seen and psp will be dead next year) means that there's nothing stopping 3DS from getting all the japanese third party support and the biggest franchises. Third parties now know that portables is what Japan wants and they are heavily supporting the console from the start. 3DS is looking to be DS+PSP. And that's better for us, we'll have to buy only one console.

With this thing already getting 2 PS2 ports (I think KH 3DS is a KH1 remake?) I can see it getting all sorts of ports from Dreamcast to Xbox to Gamecube to PS2 to PSP etc

[Moor-Angol]

Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if we see, for example, FFXV and KH3 on 3DS. Having good graphical tecnology and the absence of a competitor (because psp2 is nowhere to be seen and psp will be dead next year)

oh yes, you are right...

sorry, i didn't see Monster Hunter on 3DS release list...

and you really believe sony is not working on PSP2 ?

and you forget there is TGS in September ?

very intesive analysis, really !

[Spiegel]

oh yes, you are right... sorry, i didn't see Monster Hunter on 3DS release list... and you forget there is TGS in September ? very intesive analysis, really !

There's no need for Capcom to announce a MH game now. Don't be silly

They want to release MHP3 first, sell 3.5 millions and then announce a 3DS version.

That'd be a good business decision.

and you really believe sony is not working on PSP2 ?

If they are working on one they surely are doing their best to make me believe otherwise.

[mello]

I'm sure 3DS will sell by the truckload, thing is the DS has a HUGE back catalog that's only going to get cheaper, I just wonder if they'll be enough upgrade incentive for the mass-market.

While there will still be new games being released on the DS, in correlation to the release of 3DS I think devs could release notable titles for both platforms in an attempt to seize it's potential growth in sales. Take for example, Layton 5. It's already been announced for the 3DS, but it was scheduled this year for the DS. The incentive will be there through the 3DS' backwards compatibility, and the assurance of future franchises moving over too.

[cvxfreak]

Dragon Quest X for 3DS?

lol.

[schuelma]

Dragon Quest X for 3DS? lol.

That's what I would do. If I was a third party with any traditional Wii effort in the pipeline, I would switch it, right now.

[Takao]

I'm taking a beating if those leaked numbers for Megaman are anywhere near right. I remember the Battle Network port not doing very well, and assumed ports of a [what I thought] was a less popular part of the franchise would do worse.

[Jonnyram]

Dragon Quest X for 3DS? lol.

That would make way more sense than Wii at this point :)

[ivysaur12]

That would make way more sense than Wii at this point :)

Unless there's money hats.

[cw_sasuke]

That would make way more sense than Wii at this point :)

11 Million Wiis vs. 0 sold 3DS

Erm i dont think so.

I could see Wii AND 3DS - but canceling the Wii version ?

[JoshuaJSlone]

That's what I would do. If I was a third party with any traditional Wii effort in the pipeline, I would switch it, right now.

Ehh, I don't know about a total switch. Wii+3DS for DQX would cover more of the market than PS3+X360 for FF XIII, though.

[donny2112]

That's what I would do. If I was a third party with any traditional Wii effort in the pipeline, I would switch it, right now.

DQX is a special case, though. Nintendo is intricately involved with DQIX overseas, and they wouldn't want to lose it from their home console for their handheld (presumably) that wouldn't need it for sales. I could see them letting a dual release happen, but that doesn't fit with the last 20 years of DQ release history.

[Jonnyram]

11 Million Wiis vs. 0 sold 3DS Erm i dont think so. I could see Wii AND 3DS - but canceling the Wii version ?

If the Nintendo strategy of 3DS is to allow quick ports from Wii games, then it's a very interesting direction indeed. But I seriously doubt a DQ game would be available for both console and handheld at launch. It basically all depends on when DQX is planned for release. If it's mid-2011, the 3DS market will not be ready. Mid-2012? No problem.

[Spiegel]

Something I've realized now, If there's no PSP2 until after DQX is released (or no PSP2 at all) and DQX isn't released on PSP, wouldn't Enix also be breaking their tradition?

[Sammy Samusu]

3DS does look like a great all-rounder, but lack of competition is NEVER a good thing.

PS2 disagree.

[JoshuaJSlone]

DQX is a special case, though. Nintendo is intricately involved with DQIX overseas, and they wouldn't want to lose it from their home console for their handheld (presumably) that wouldn't need it for sales. I could see them letting a dual release happen, but that doesn't fit with the last 20 years of DQ release history.

First few were multiplatform Famicom/MSX.

It basically all depends on when DQX is planned for release. If it's mid-2011, the 3DS market will not be ready. Mid-2012? No problem.

I was just thinking, if 3DS launches late this year/early next year in Japan and sells like DS/Lite did from late 2005 on, it could catch up to Wii by mid-2012.

Something I've realized now, If there's no PSP2 until after DQX is released (or no PSP2 at all) and DQX isn't released on PSP, wouldn't Enix also be breaking their tradition?

Of?

[Spiegel]

Of?

Releasing the game on the actual platform with the biggest installed base in Japan.
I was talking about an hypothetical and unlikely case where Sony and third parties would still be supporting the PSP at that time

[cw_sasuke]

If the Nintendo strategy of 3DS is to allow quick ports from Wii games, then it's a very interesting direction indeed. But I seriously doubt a DQ game would be available for both console and handheld at launch. It basically all depends on when DQX is planned for release. If it's mid-2011, the 3DS market will not be ready. Mid-2012? No problem.

SE would still wait till the 3DS Userbase at its peak before releasing the next main DQ Game. The 3DS will probably get most upcoming Spin-Offs and a Remake of 7 or the first 3 games.

@Sammy Samusu
GameCube ?

[charlequin]

3DS does look like a great all-rounder, but lack of competition is NEVER a good thing.

Ehn, it worked out fine for the PS2.

The benefit of competition for the consumer is that it destroys profits -- it forces companies to maintain smaller profit margins and sell products at lower prices or include more value to undercut their competitors. This part is purely beneficial to consumers. However, it also has market-altering effects that aren't always beneficial -- splitting games across multiple consoles (costing consumers more money to play them all), hurting the performance of software titles due to such splitting (meaning many games are less viable than they'd be on a single platform), creating arms races of dubious value to the consumer (the overpriced 360 and PS3 are a result of the two companies screwing up directly as a result of competing in pointless one-upsmanship with one another), etc.

The ideal for gaming specifically is probably something like the DS/PSP competition -- one hugely dominant winner that third parties can feel completely safe developing for and which gets all the benefits of economies of scale, and one also-ran who's just threatening enough that the market leader can't get complacent or slide into monopoly tactics. Although the 3DS doesn't currently seem to have a competitor, the system is already visibly designed to fend off a Sony challenge in its featureset (and probably in its price) which means Sony's competition last generation has already benefited us this coming handheld generation.

[Laguna]

You are right that competition is important but we shouldn´t dismiss the fact that even with just one platform there still are all these developers and publishers competing with each other. And a hypothetical one platform future would atleast let them focus a bit more on their actual product instead of wasting resources on simple porting work.

[charlequin]

You are right that competition is important but we shouldn´t dismiss the fact that even with just one platform there still are all these developers and publishers competing with each other.

Also an excellent point. I think there's good reason to believe that competition between software is much more beneficial for the consumer overall than platform competition (which has both upsides and downsides.)

[thefro]

I think the cell phone market and Apple are threatening enough that Nintendo won't get too cocky even if Sony waves the white flag in the portable market for a while.

[Fularu]

3DS does look like a great all-rounder, but lack of competition is NEVER a good thing.

Competition helped nintendo increase the price of the DS 4 times :p

[RPG_Fanatic]

Famitsu top 10: 07/06/10-13/06/10 01. [WII] Xenoblade (Nintendo) 02. [WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Nintendo) 03. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto IV: Episodes from Liberty City (Rockstar Games) 04. [NDS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 2 (Square Enix) 05. [NDS] Mega Man Zero Collection (Capcom) 06. [PS3] Just Cause 2 (Square Enix) 07. [PSP] Fairy Tail: Portable Guild (Konami) 08. [NDS] Friend Collection (Nintendo) 09. [WII] Wii Fit Plus (Nintendo) 10. [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2010: Blue Samurai Challenge (Konami) Enough with E3, time to return to the present (waiting for 3DS)

Good to see Xenoblade in the number 1 spot.:D

[viciouskillersquirrel]

Also an excellent point. I think there's good reason to believe that competition between software is much more beneficial for the consumer overall than platform competition (which has both upsides and downsides.)

I agree, but only because platform competition is more or less non-existent in this market. I have a feeling that the console/handheld gaming market is one that is prone to natural monopolies. It's not a new idea, but the platform with the best software attracts the most users, the platform with the most users attracts the best software etc. in a big feedback loop until one platform dominates.

The only anomoly in seven generations has been the Wii and I firmly believe that this occurred because 3rd parties did not behave as rational actors with regards to it. It confused them and made them fearful, thus the Wii did not attract their best software.

Luckily for competing platform holders, it's also a market that resets every half-decade or so.

Also:

Cheer up, guys, come the 3DS, these threads'll get interesting again. It's just too bad there's nothing coming up that'll rival the DS vs PSP wars that dominated the discussion here once. Maybe something suprising will happen.

Heck, I've not been posting in these threads the last few months, mostly on account of having nothing new to say. The trends this gen have been interesting and occasionally bewildering. Trying to make sense of it all is what makes the discussion here so great.

[All Hail C-Webb]

You are right that competition is important but we shouldn´t dismiss the fact that even with just one platform there still are all these developers and publishers competing with each other. And a hypothetical one platform future would atleast let them focus a bit more on their actual product instead of wasting resources on simple porting work.

People are forgetting that Nintendo sees Apple (and other cell phones/tablets) as a major source of competition in the portable market. The inclusion of 3D camera, 3D movie playback, and added communication features were more a response to that threat than anything Sony might offer.

[Conrad Link]

Whooo go Xenoblade! :D

(and Mario Galaxy 2).

[Sammy Samusu]

We not getting numberz?

[ivysaur12]

We not getting numberz?

That's the only reason I'm on GAF right now :lol

[cvxfreak]

It's still a bit early.

[donny2112]

First few were multiplatform Famicom/MSX.

Aren't those over 20 years ago, though?

That's the only reason I'm on GAF right now :lol

http://www.inside-games.jp/ranking/weekly.php?week=159

They should be there first.

[Acosta]

EDIT: Aren't we exaggerating a bit about 3DS?

Absolutely, we don't know the price, and for what we know the thing could be pirated the first week and create a serious problem (bear with me, It's just a very extreme example to illustrate my point). Nothing it´s a completely safe bet (there are only better bets than others, 3DS look a very good bet but I will wait a bit until it's a reality for the market).

[Sammy Samusu]

That's the only reason I'm on GAF right now :lol

Yeah, but I heard Xenoblade shipment was around 80k... really? I was expecting like 100k sold during it's first week, but, er, it's kinda impossible now. :(

[ivysaur12]

Yeah, but I heard Xenoblade shipment was around 80k... really? I was expecting like 100k sold during it's first week, but, er, it's kinda impossible now. :(

If 52k was 64% of the shipment... yeah, it's around 80k for its shipment.

[Fafalada]

If the Nintendo strategy of 3DS is to allow quick ports from Wii games

One of the things that always hurt PSP was being on the receiving end of watered down console ports. And 3DS hw delta to Wii looks to be almost identical to where PSP was from PS2.

Admittedly most JRPGs nowadays are still developed with NES as the baseline hw-spec, so it's less of an issue in Japan but still.

[duckroll]

Numbers are up: http://www.gpara.com/ranking/mediacr...g_20100617.php

Xenoblade sold 83k.

[RurouniZel]

Numbers are up: http://www.gpara.com/ranking/mediacr...g_20100617.php Xenoblade sold 83k.

Nothing earth-shattering sadly, but I kinda expected that. Respectable, but it seems to be a big budget RPG from Ninty so we'll just have to see if it ends up being profitable.

[mutsu]

Numbers are up: http://www.gpara.com/ranking/mediacr...g_20100617.php Xenoblade sold 83k.

83K is actually higher than I expected. How did does it compare to say, Baten Kaitos?

[ivysaur12]

83K is actually higher than I expected. How did does it compare to say, Baten Kaitos?

Baten Kaitos - 47,060

Baten Kaitos Origins - 12,348

BK1 was released in December, Origins in February.

Numbers are up: http://www.gpara.com/ranking/mediacr...g_20100617.php Xenoblade sold 83k.

So, if we are to believe the leak, the first day sales were about 63% of its total weekly sales.

[duckroll]

83K is actually higher than I expected. How did does it compare to say, Baten Kaitos?

Famitsu/Enterbrain numbers:

Baten Kaitos - first week 47k, LTD 108k
Baten Kaitos 2 - first week 12k, LTD 44k

Xenosaga Ep1 - first week 300k, LTD 439k
Xenosaga Ep2 - first week 183k, LTD 256k
Xenosaga Ep3 - first week 119k, LTD 181k

Xenosaga I+II - first week 11k, LTD 21k

Soma Bringer - first week 53k, LTD 100k

[Magicpaint]

Pretty decent for Xenoblade, I suppose. It certainly beats the BK games and Soma Bringer (though that was also expected). 150k should be doable...I hope.

[thestopsign]

I'm betting it follows Fire Emblem Wii's track pretty closely. I think that game started around 80k and got to 160k.

Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn
ファイアーエムブレム 暁の女神 Nintendo
任天堂 RPG 22/02/2007 73.337 42,66% 171.924

160-170k seems like a good bet.

[ivysaur12]

Pretty decent for Xenoblade, I suppose. It certainly beats the BK games and Soma Bringer (though that was also expected). 150k should be doable...I hope.

Yeah, it'll do at least 150k. It won't beat Xenosaga 3, but it will definitely be Monolith's most successful console game in a while.

Oh, duckroll, you forgot this gem:

Disaster - first week 13k, LTD 28k

[duckroll]

Yeah, it'll do at least 150k. It won't beat Xenosaga 3, but it will definitely be Monolith's most successful console game in a while. Oh, duckroll, you forgot this gem: Disaster - first week 13k, LTD 28k

I'm not listing all of Monolithsoft's games. I was only listing the Takahashi's games to compare. The BK numbers were asked so I posted them too.

[ivysaur12]

I'm betting it follows Fire Emblem Wii's track pretty closely. I think that game started around 80k and got to 160k. Fire Emblem: Radiant Dawn ファイアーエムブレム 暁の女神 Nintendo 任天堂 RPG 22/02/2007 73.337 42,66% 171.924 160-170k seems like a good bet.

Fire Emblem's first week sales were also only 73k.

[Shalashaska161]

Decent numbers for Xenoblade. Here's hoping that has some legs and doesn't drop off into oblivion next week. Anything big coming out next week in Japan to challenge it?