[[Nintex]]

Wii: 15.989

[Takao]

GT5 will sell 5 million units of PS3 alone! Does Wii have any big name titles/system sellers coming out in Japan any time soon?

Kirby should give the Wii a decent bump whenever that's out. I don't expect anything massive though, as I kind of suspect some of the Kirby audience already has a Wii.

Donkey Kong probably won't do much of anything (unless it's a huge series that I've been ignorant to). Outside of those two, there isn't really much for the Wii.

[mclem]

The battle for third place rages on.

If we're talking about 'for the year', I'd suggest there's a pretty good chance it's actually a battle for *fourth* place...

[Mojojo]

Wii: 15.989

It's time for Nintendo to announce their next home console, but with the 3DS taking the spotlight in 2011, at best we'll get a glimpse at next E3 and a release in 2012. So far away.

[AniHawk]

It's time for Nintendo to announce their next home console, but with the 3DS taking the spotlight in 2011, at best we'll get a glimpse at next E3 and a release in 2012. So far away.

Actually, I think Zelda, Wii Relax, and (to a far lesser extent) Pikmin 3 hitting in 2011 would be more of a reason to not expect a successor next year. They launched the GBA and the Gamecube in 2001, half a year apart.

I need backup from Shikimaru Ninja on this, but:

EAD:
Group 1: Hideki Konno
(Nintendogs, Mario Kart DS, Mario Kart Wii)
Mario Kart 3DS, Nintendogs + Cats

Group 2: Katsuya Eguchi
(Animal Crossing: City Folk, Wii Sports, Wii Music, Wii Sports Resort)
Animal Crossing 3DS, Pilotwings Resort

Group 3: Eiji Aonuma
(Twilight Princess, Phantom Hourglass, Spirit Tracks)
Skyward Sword, Ocarina of Time 3D

Group 4: Hiroyuki Kimura
(New Super Mario Bros, Big Brain Academy: Wii Degree, New Super Mario Bros. Wii)
Pikmin 3

Group 5: Tadashi Sugiyama
(Wii Fit, Wii Fit Plus)
Wii Relax?

Tokyo: Takao Shimizu, Yoshiaki Koizumi
(Super Mario Galaxy, Flipnote Studio, Super Mario Galaxy 2)
???

Comprehensive Software Development Group: Shigeru Miyamoto, Takashi Tezuka, Takao Sawano
(Pac-Man Vs., Super Mario 64 DS)
Steel Diver, Star Fox 64 3D

Intelligent Systems (just guesswork here):
Team 1 (Mario franchise/spinoff team?):
(Super Paper Mario, Wario Ware games)
Paper Mario 3DS

Team 2 (Strategy team?):
(Fire Emblem: Shadow Dragon, Dragon Quest Wars, Fire Emblem 3r)
???

Team 3 (Puzzle team?):
(Planet Puzzle League, Rhythm Tengoku Gold)
???

SPD:
Group 1: Yoshio Sakamoto
(Rhythm Heaven, Wario Ware games, Metroid: Other M)
???

Group 2: Hitoshi Yamagami
(Brain Age, Tetris DS, Legendary Starfy)
???

Group 3: Kensuke Tanabe
(Mario Strikers Charged, Punch-Out!!, Excitebots: Trick Racing)
Donkey Kong Country Returns

Retro Studios: Some Guys and Stuff
(Metroid Prime series)
Donkey Kong Country Returns

NST: DigiPen Grads and Stuff
(Mario vs DK series, DSiWare apps)
???

Game Freak: Billionaires and Stuff
(Pokemon, Drill Dozer)
Pokemon Black/White/SomeOtherThirdThing

HAL Labs: A Menacing AI that Watches You At All Times
(Kirby games, Smash Bros games)
Kirby: Epic Yarn (helping Good-Feel)

Project Sora: Masahiro Sakurai
Kid Icarus: Uprising

Nd Cube: Makoto Tokugawa
(F-Zero: Maximum Velocity, Tube Slider, Wii Party)
???

Genius Sonority: Manabu Yamana
(Pokemon Trozei, Dragon Quest Swords)
???

Brownie Brown: Shinichi Kameoka
(Heroes of Mana, Blue Dragon Plus, A Kappa's Trail)
???

So Retro, EAD 1, 2, and Tokyo, along with Nd Cube and SPD 1 might be the closest to having something for a system launch in 2012 (or close to launch). SPD Group 3 too, but their only function is working with non-Japanese companies.

[duckroll]

So, starting next month the PSP Monster Hunter battle royale begins. Lord of Arcana from Square Enix, God Eater Burst from Bandai Namco Games, Monster Hunter Portable 3rd from Capcom, and Phantasy Star Portable 2 Infinity from Sega. Any expectations on how each title will do? It's pretty obvious which title will be #1, but it'll be interesting to see which one ends up doing the best, and if any of them will bomb.

For reference, here are the Famitsu numbers for the last non-budget release of each of the previous entries. Lord of Arcana is the only brand new IP in the group, so that'll be interesting to watch too.

Monster Hunter Portable 2G - 2,452,111
God Eater - 605,316
Phantasy Star Portable 2 - 580,726

[onken]

Wii: 15.989

Urgh I always hated that song.

[Nirolak]

Urgh I always hated that song.

We could use this one instead.

Not that it's a vast improvement...

[Spiegel]

Lord of Arcana is going to bomb badly.
New IP + High price + Looks awful + God Eater Burst releasing only two weeks later

On a related note, apparently the game is done by Access Games (Ace Combat series on psp, Sengoku Basara PSP) and not internally.
http://www.accessgames.co.jp/cts_prd.html

[Segata Sanshiro]

Most of the word of mouth on God Eater ended up being pretty bad, so I'm not predicting very big things for Burst. P*P should see a pretty hefty drop as well. These are games that people buy because they want a fresh Monster Hunter style game while they wait for the next Monster Hunter. No one's going to buy them with the next Monster Hunter right around the corner. It's like launching a so-so knock-off of Call of Duty on the same day Call of Duty comes out.

The only one I could even see having a chance of great success is Square's, and that's only if it kicks ass. If it's half-baked like God Eater and P*P, it's going to get shredded alive by MHP3.

[duckroll]

Lord of Arcana is going to bomb badly. New IP + High price + Looks awful + God Eater Burst releasing only two weeks later

Lord of Arcana: Retail = 5980yen, PSN = 4980yen
God Eater Burst: Retail = 5229yen, PSN = 4700yen (Append version is 2100yen at retail)

For the consumers who do not already own God Eater, or sold it off before this was announced, the price difference between both games is a non-issue. The real question for God Eater will be whether they have successfully built a relationship with the fanbase so far, and whether those who played the original enjoyed it enough to want more. If there are many of them who have the original and still play it, then the append version could sell very well. How well the normal version does will depend on the word of mouth and how popular the game is in social circles. Peer pressure is generally what sells these multiplayer games after all.

As for Lord of Arcana, I think the biggest thing against it will be "New IP" and not any of the other things. As far as "looks awful" is concerned, there is a fully featured playable demo which has been out for a while now, and they're supporting the demo with DLC quests every other week now. How people will react to that will determine the sales, not how it looks in magazines. Similar to God Eater's demo, the save data will be compatible with the final game. I played the demo, and I thought it was pretty mediocre, but the engine runs really well and the gameplay is smooth. I hate monster hunter clones though, so I'm not really the best judge of quality here. I hated the God Eater demo too.

[GCX]

Donkey Kong probably won't do much of anything (unless it's a huge series that I've been ignorant to). Outside of those two, there isn't really much for the Wii.

DKC games were million sellers in Japan (DKC2 sold over 2m copies) but it's been 15 years so who knows.

[farnham]

Kirby and DK are both potential millionsellers

it comes all down to nintendos marketing

[duckroll]

Most of the word of mouth on God Eater ended up being pretty bad, so I'm not predicting very big things for Burst. P*P should see a pretty hefty drop as well. These are games that people buy because they want a fresh Monster Hunter style game while they wait for the next Monster Hunter. No one's going to buy them with the next Monster Hunter right around the corner. It's like launching a so-so knock-off of Call of Duty on the same day Call of Duty comes out. The only one I could even see having a chance of great success is Square's, and that's only if it kicks ass. If it's half-baked like God Eater and P*P, it's going to get shredded alive by MHP3.

I think God Eater can potentially suffer too, if there isn't a lot of interest in more of the same because of quality issues. I'm not all that familiar with the genre so I don't really want to comment too much there though. As for Phantasy Star Portable 2 Infinity, I think there's actually a pretty good chance that it comes up tops below MHP3. Out of all the MHP clones, PSP is the only actual RPG series. As such, it might actually survive solely because the fanbase sorta cares about the storyline and characters, and PSP2I offers more of that.

[Spiegel]

Most of the word of mouth on God Eater ended up being pretty bad, so I'm not predicting very big things for Burst. P*P should see a pretty hefty drop as well. These are games that people buy because they want a fresh Monster Hunter style game while they wait for the next Monster Hunter. No one's going to buy them with the next Monster Hunter right around the corner. It's like launching a so-so knock-off of Call of Duty on the same day Call of Duty comes out. The only one I could even see having a chance of great success is Square's, and that's only if it kicks ass. If it's half-baked like God Eater and P*P, it's going to get shredded alive by MHP3.

God Eater Burst, the stand alone expansion, is pretty cheap (2100Y) and is ranking high on comgnet. Also are you sure about the bad word of mouth? The game had some nice legs.

As for Lord of Arcana, I think the biggest thing against it will be "New IP" and not any of the other things. As far as "looks awful" is concerned, there is a fully featured playable demo which has been out for a while now, and they're supporting the demo with DLC quests every other week now. How people will react to that will determine the sales, not how it looks in magazines. Similar to God Eater's demo, the save data will be compatible with the final game. I played the demo, and I thought it was pretty mediocre, but the engine runs really well and the gameplay is smooth. I hate monster hunter clones though, so I'm not really the best judge of quality here. I hated the God Eater demo too.

I'm basing my prediction mostly on comgnet preorders. LoA has yet to appear on the list while God Eater (also new IP) was ranking even two months before release.

I got the impression that the demo worked for GE but not for LoA.

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

I think God Eater Burst has the best chance of the non-MH titles. Its freaking cheap for those that have God Eater (be it bought new or used) and it has a reasonable priced full version. Can see it hitting 1m actually combining everything. Reminds me of Portable Ops +.

P*P2I should have more problems given it should hit closer to MHP3. Being an expansion as well, I guess it'll have to settle for a third, half or two-thirds of P*P2 (200-400k).

MHP3 will have the biggest 1st week for MH so easily (will be 5 days, in December, in the first week of the month) but I think it won't match MHP2G LTD (4m) even with its eventual re-releases.

PD: Oh, forgot about the Square-Enix MH. The japanese will as well. <100k LTD.

[Segata Sanshiro]

I think God Eater can potentially suffer too, if there isn't a lot of interest in more of the same because of quality issues. I'm not all that familiar with the genre so I don't really want to comment too much there though. As for Phantasy Star Portable 2 Infinity, I think there's actually a pretty good chance that it comes up tops below MHP3. Out of all the MHP clones, PSP is the only actual RPG series. As such, it might actually survive solely because the fanbase sorta cares about the storyline and characters, and PSP2I offers more of that.

Kind of a funny anecdote. After God Eater came out, I decided to ask the junior high school boys I was teaching what they thought about it and various MH clones. They ranked MH2G as like, a 10 (signified by my holding my hand up as high as it could go), MHtri a little under that, God Eater at about the midpoint between my height and the floor, and when I asked about P*P (cuz I was playing it at the time), they kept making me put my hand lower and lower until it touched the floor.

[Nirolak]

Kind of a funny anecdote. After God Eater came out, I decided to ask the junior high school boys I was teaching what they thought about it and various MH clones. They ranked MH2G as like, a 10 (signified by my holding my hand up as high as it could go), MHtri a little under that, God Eater at about the midpoint between my height and the floor, and when I asked about P*P (cuz I was playing it at the time), they kept making me put my hand lower and lower until it touched the floor.

Yeah, having played both Monster Hunter and PSP, I have to say they're very different games, so I can see why they would get such a different reaction.

As another anecdote, my friend who absolutely loathes Monster Hunter to the very core of his being happens to really like PSP.

By that note, I'm going to agree with duckroll and say that PSP:I does the best, mainly because its the most different from Monster Hunter gameplay wise.

[duckroll]

Kind of a funny anecdote. After God Eater came out, I decided to ask the junior high school boys I was teaching what they thought about it and various MH clones. They ranked MH2G as like, a 10 (signified by my holding my hand up as high as it could go), MHtri a little under that, God Eater at about the midpoint between my height and the floor, and when I asked about P*P (cuz I was playing it at the time), they kept making me put my hand lower and lower until it touched the floor.

Yeah actually this makes a lot of sense. I would imagine that for junior high kids, they're more interested in just the action, and playing with friends, and fighting giant monsters which look cool. It would be more about mechanics, replay value, and how long a game can keep their attention. It strikes me that Monster Hunter feeds into that perfectly, putting any actual story and characters completely in the background.

On the other hand, God Eater and Phantasy Star are both much more otaku-centric games. They rely more on an older crowd, a famous voice cast, anime style character designs, more complicated world view and storyline, etc. PSP definitely goes much further into this than GE does, and like I mentioned, it's actually a RPG and not so much of a Monster Hunter "clone" (PSO and PSU existed long ago anyway).

It's hard to really tell how Lord of Arcana will do in respect to this angle though, it's definitely much closer to MH than GE and PSP, but at the same time it also has a lot of really, really silly gameplay elements which make it much more different and possibly... less appealing (instanced encounters, feels really generic in terms of being standard high fantasy, etc).

[Segata Sanshiro]

As a P.S. to that anecdote, one of those boys got ultra Peace Walker fever and wouldn't stop harassing me abut buying it.

[duckroll]

As a P.S. to that anecdote, one of those boys got ultra Peace Walker fever and wouldn't stop harassing me abut buying it.

I hope you didn't let him down. Kojima needs every sale he can get!

[Nirolak]

On another note, Yakuza PSP may have some cross over appeal with the dating game crowd.

[Tailzo]

As mentioned above, Idon't really se PS:P / PS:P2 / PS:P2i as monster hunter clones. As mentioned above, Phantasy Star has existed for a long time, and 4 player multiplayer phantasy star has existed for something like 10 years.

But, I do think Sega released it on PSP to get a boost of the monster hunter fanbase.

I'm not sure how japanese consumers will react. If it was up to me, I'd buy Monster Hunter and Phantasy Star Portable 2i day one, but I'd be more cautious of the two others. I've tried a God Eater demo a while ago. It was alright, but didn't click with me. The new Square game... Well I haven't understood why I should care about it yet. And I keep forgetting that it exists all the time.

[AniHawk]

I hope you didn't let him down. Kojima needs every sale he can get!

And he'll never make another one. For serious this time!

[Segata Sanshiro]

As mentioned above, Idon't really se PS:P / PS:P2 / PS:P2i as monster hunter clones. As mentioned above, Phantasy Star has existed for a long time, and 4 player multiplayer phantasy star has existed for something like 10 years. But, I do think Sega released it on PSP to get a boost of the monster hunter fanbase. I'm not sure how japanese consumers will react. If it was up to me, I'd buy Monster Hunter and Phantasy Star Portable 2i day one, but I'd be more cautious of the two others. I've tried a God Eater demo a while ago. It was alright, but didn't click with me. The new Square game... Well I haven't understood why I should care about it yet. And I keep forgetting that it exists all the time.

Right, there's pretty much no question P*P rode off MH's success on the PSP. None of the other recent Phantasy Star games came even close to what the PSP P*Ps did.

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Dengeki has MH Diary at 288,431 with 95% sell-through. ACX2 at 62k (60%), first one debut was 51k and its LTD 244k with the re-releases. Hakuouki at 15k.

M-Create has MH Diary 256k with sell-through at 92%. They say ACX2 demo has been downloaded over 600k times lol.

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

I think God Eater Burst has the best chance of the non-MH titles. Its freaking cheap for those that have God Eater (be it bought new or used) and it has a reasonable priced full version.

Extra points to your argument(Not my theory, it came from some retailer blog):

Once you do do the initial check for burst you no longer need the Original GodEater disk. Which means the majority of those are going straight to the used games stores. The used market will become flooded, original GodEater should hit less then 1000 yen.

Really puts the price of entry for a new user at something more like less then 3000 yen.

__

also Hachima reminds us, when doing your predictions,
Don't forgot the past:
[PSP] Fairy Tail: Portable Guild (Konami) - 72.350

[Road]

Dengeki Sales, Aug 23 - 29, 2010:

01 / 00 [PSP] Monster Hunter Diary: Poka Poka Airu Village (Capcom) - 288,431 / 288,431
02 / 00 [PSP] Ace Combat X2: Joint Assault (Bandai Namco) - 62,323 / 62,323
03 / 02 [WII] Wii Party (Nintendo) - 56,794 / 856,723
04 / 01 [PS3] Another Century's Episode: R (Bandai Namco) - 33,628 / 258,882
05 / 00 [PSP] Hakuoki: Zuisouroku Portable (Idea Factory) - 14,880 / 14,880
06 / 06 [WII] Super Mario Galaxy 2 (Nintendo) - 11,672 / 811,589
07 / 04 [PS3] Sengoku Basara 3 (Capcom) - 11,367 / 376,389
08 / 05 [PSP] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva 2nd (Sega) - 10,828 / 333,916
09 / 07 [NDS] Art Academy DS (Nintendo) - 10,367 / 164,952
10 / 10 [NDS] Taiko no Tatsujin DS: Dororon! Yokai Daikessen!! (Bandai Namco) - 9,356 / 198,836
11 / 09 [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 3: Sekai e no Chousen!! Spark (Level 5) - 9,083 / 452,149
12 / 19 [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2nd G (PSP the Best Reprint) (Capcom) - 8,018 / ?
13 / 00 [PSP] Nisenochigiri (Idea Factory) - 7,733 / 7,733
14 / 11 [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 3: Sekai e no Chousen!! Bomber (Level 5) - 7,700 / 387,658
15 / 13 [NDS] Tomodachi Collection (Nintendo) - 7,417 / ?
16 / 03 [PS3] Chou-Jigen Game Neptune (Compile Heart) - 7,406 / 31,619
17 / 12 [NDS] Tetris Party Premium (Hudson) - 7,195 / 51,395
18 / 14 [WII] Dragon Quest: Monster Battle Road Victory (Square Enix) - 6,670 / 239,728
19 / 16 [NDS] Harvest Moon: Futago no Mura (Marvelous Entertainment) - 6,528 / 26,390
20 / 08 [PSP] Tales of Phantasia: Narikiri Dungeon X (Bandai Namco) - 6,440 / 165,313



Other software (first week / LTD):
2006-10 Ace Combat X: Skies of Deception (Bandai Namco) - 51,000 / 244,000


Notes:
1) Sell-through
- [PSP] Monster Hunter Diary ~95%
- [PSP] Ace Combat X2 ~60%


2) 2010-06-28~2010-08-29 (compared to last year)

- Hardware: 1.24 million units (-18.8%)
- Software: 9.86 million units (-19.3%)

- Units sales compared to last year
-- PS3 hardware: 250,000 units (+330%)
-- PS3 software: 1,810,000 units (+210%)

-- PSP hardware: 290,000 units (+11.1%)
-- PSP software: 2,280,000 units (+49.4%)

- Market share 2009 -> 2010
-- Sony systems hardware: 23.7% -> 45.2%
-- Sony systems software: 25.8% -> 43.5%

Hardware |  This Week |  Last Week |    YTD     |    LTD
------------------------------------------------------------
PSP      |     55,278 |     26,924 |  1,510,572 | 14,899,964
NDS      |     41,170 |     45,506 |  1,717,364 | 30,682,061
PS3      |     22,267 |     26,521 |  1,079,136 |  5,563,834
WII      |     16,248 |     18,833 |  1,121,464 | 10,666,900
360      |     	2,250 |      4,097 |    179,055 |  1,387,710
PS2      |     	1,374 |      1,452 |     	| 	
------------------------------------------------------------
Total    |    138,587 |    123,333 |

http://news.dengeki.com/elem/000/000/296/296572/
http://ascii.jp/elem/000/000/551/551970/
http://research.ascii.jp/elem/000/00...482/index.html

Aug 16 - 22
Aug 09 - 15
Aug 02 - 08
Jul 26 - Aug 01
Jul 19 - 25
Jul 12 - 18
Jul 05 - 11
Jun 28 - Jul 04
Jun 21 - 27

[Chris1964]

21. / 16. [NDS] Harvest Moon: Twin Villages (Marvelous Entertainment)
22. / 19. [WII] New Super Mario Bros. Wii (Nintendo)
23. / 13. [PSP] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2010 (Konami)
24. / 18. [NDS] Fire Emblem: New Mystery of the Emblem - Hero of Light and Shadow (Nintendo)
25. / 31. [PSP] Corpse Party: Blood Covered - Repeated Fear (5pb.)
26. / 25. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. (Nintendo)
27. / 23. [NDS] Kamen Rider Battle: Ganbaride Card Battle Taisen (Bandai Namco)
28. / 20. [NDS] Heart Catch PreCure! Oshare Collection (Bandai Namco)
29. / 27. [NDS] Pokemon Heart Gold / Soul Silver (Pokemon Co.)
30. / 24. [PS3] Jikkyou Powerful Pro Baseball 2010 (Konami)
31. / 29. [NDS] Tokimeki Memorial: Girl's Side 3rd Story (Konami)
32. / 00. [PS3] Kane & Lynch 2: Dog Days (Square Enix)
33. / 00. [PSP] Sakura Sakura: Haru Urara (GN Software)
34. / 34. [PS3] Assassin's Creed II: Special Edition (Ubisoft)
35. / 30. [WII] Wii Sports Resort (Nintendo)
36. / 32. [NDS] Tamagotchi no Pichi Pichi Omisecchi (Bandai Namco)
37. / 00. [NDS] Learn Korean with Bae Yong-Joon DS: Dating Guide (D3 Publisher)
38. / 45. [PSP] Metal Gear Solid: Peace Walker (Konami)
39. / 38. [NDS] Mario Kart DS (Nintendo)
40. / 37. [NDS] Digimon Story: Lost Evolution (Bandai Namco)
41. / 00. [PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2 [PSP the Best] (Sega)
42. / 35. [NDS] Kaidan Restaurant: Ura Menu 100-Sen (Bandai Namco)
43. / 26. [WII] Sengoku Basara 3 (Capcom)
44. / 39. [NDS] Dragon Quest Monsters: Joker 2 (Square Enix)
45. / 49. [PSP] Pop 'n Music Portable [Best Selection] (Konami)
46. / 36. [NDS] Love Plus + (Konami)
47. / 33. [PS3] ModNation Racers (SCE)
48. / 00. [PS2] Persona 4 [PlayStation 2 the Best] (Atlus Co.)
49. / 46. [WII] Taiko Drum Master Wii 2 (Bandai Namco)
50. / 40. [NDS] Metal Fight Beyblade: Bakugami Susanoh Shuurai! (Hudson)

00. / 00. [ALL] Weekly Software Sales (All Publishers) - 909.161 / 36.038.701 (+3%)

NDS - 20
PSP - 13
WII - 9
PS3 - 7
PS2 - 1
360 - 0

[Chris1964]

I'm basing my prediction mostly on comgnet preorders. LoA has yet to appear on the list while God Eater (also new IP) was ranking even two months before release. I got the impression that the demo worked for GE but not for LoA.

Speaking about comgnet Black/White has already more preorders than every previous Pokemon, it will ''outsell'' Dragon Quest IX next week and has one more week that preorders will skyrocket.
We don't know anything about initial shipment yet but hopefully next week there will be some information on this.

[Takao]

Holy shit at that sell through for Monster Hunter Diary. No doubt it's dropping like a rock in the next few weeks as Capcom scrambles to get more UMDs pressed. I haven't followed the game at all, but it's still heavy on multiplayer, right? If so, I can see it rebounding assuming Capcom gets new stock in before all interest is gone.

As for the battle of Ad Hoc PSP games. Lord of Arcana will be the biggest loser, with PSP2i, and GE Burst doing maybe half of what the original release did. Although, Burst might do better since it's a low priced expansion for those who still own the original.

[Chris1964]

Updated list for potential important 2010 releases

18/09/10 [NDS] Pokemon Black / White (Pokemon Co.)
30/09/10 [NDS] Okamiden (Capcom)
07/10/10 [NDS] Kingdom Hearts Re: Coded (Square Enix)
28/10/10 [NDS] Golden Sun: Dark Dawn (Nintendo)
28/10/10 [NDS] Zack & Ombra: The Phantom Theme Park (Konami)
25/11/10 [NDS] Super Robot Wars L (Bandai Namco)
02/12/10 [NDS] Momotaro Railway: World (Hudson)
09/12/10 [NDS] Ni no Kuni: The Ebony Wizard (Level 5)
xx/12/10 [NDS] Shiren the Wanderer 5: Fortune Tower and the Dice of Fate (Chunsoft)
xx/xx/10 [NDS] Mario Vs. Donkey Kong: Miniland Mayhem (Nintendo)
xx/xx/10 [NDS] Power Pro Kun Pocket 13 (Konami)
xx/xx/xx [NDS] Magician’s Quest: The Merchant’s Store of Sorcery (Konami)

22/09/10 [PSP] Black Leopard: A New Tale of Yakuza (Sega)
30/09/10 [PSP] K-On! After School Live!! (Sega)
14/10/10 [PSP] Lord of Arcana (Square Enix)
28/10/10 [PSP] God Eater: Burst (Bandai Namco)
11/11/10 [PSP] Tactics Ogre: Wheel of Fate (Square Enix)
02/12/10 [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 (Capcom)
xx/xx/10 [PSP] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2011 (Konami)
xx/xx/10 [PSP] Phantasy Star Portable 2: Infinity (Sega)
xx/xx/xx [PSP] The 3rd Birthday (Square Enix)

14/10/10 [WII] Kirby's Epic Yarn (Nintendo)
21/10/10 [WII] Super Mario Collection Special Pack (Nintendo)
xx/xx/10 [WII] Donkey Kong Country Returns (Nintendo)
xx/xx/10 [WII] The Last Story (Nintendo)
xx/xx/xx [WII] Wii Relax (Nintendo)

15/09/10 [PS3] Front Mission: Evolved (Square Enix)
07/10/10 [PS3] Gekijouban Macross F: Itsuwarino Utahime - Hybrid Pack (Bandai Namco)
21/10/10 [PS3] Vanquish (Sega)
21/10/10 [PS3] Naruto Shippuden: Narutimate Storm 2 (Bandai Namco)
21/10/10 [PS3] MOVE
03/11/10 [PS3] Gran Turismo 5 (SCE)
11/11/10 [PS3] Dragon Ball: Raging Blast 2 (Bandai Namco)
xx/xx/10 [PS3] Call of Duty: Black Ops (Square Enix)
xx/xx/10 [PS3] World Soccer Winning Eleven 2011 (Konami)
xx/xx/10 [PS3] Tales of Graces F (Bandai Namco)
xx/xx/xx [PS3] Warriors: Legends of Troy (Koei Tecmo)
xx/xx/xx [PS3] Disgaea 4 (Nippon Ichi Software)

[Takao]

[PSP] Dragon Ball: TAG Vs. should do over 100k unless the Japanese response to the demo has been poor. It's 2 vs. 2 with the ability for everyone who owns a copy to play, very much like Supersonic Warriors 2 on DS which did really well if I remember correctly.

[Chris1964]

[PSP] Dragon Ball: TAG Vs. should do over 100k unless the Japanese response to the demo has been poor. It's 2 vs. 2 with the ability for everyone who owns a copy to play, very much like Supersonic Warriors 2 on DS which did really well if I remember correctly.

Things don't look very good for Dragon Ball looking at amazon and comgnet. Plus Dragon Ball was never big on PSP.

[wizword]

Kirby should give the Wii a decent bump whenever that's out. I don't expect anything massive though, as I kind of suspect some of the Kirby audience already has a Wii. Donkey Kong probably won't do much of anything (unless it's a huge series that I've been ignorant to). Outside of those two, there isn't really much for the Wii.

donkey kong is a massive series. Much bigger than kirby.

[Chris1964]

donkey kong is a massive series. Much bigger than kirby.

Was. We'll see how this performs.

[farnham]

donkey kong is a massive series. Much bigger than kirby.

i think kirby is the bigger series now

the mainline has produced millionsellers constantly and even the spinoff usually sell over 500k.

donkey kong not so much.

in the west DK is probably bigger

[Chris1964]

Meanwhile 360 is 4 weeks in a row without any game in top 50 and next 2 weeks will be the same as no 360 game is gonna chart. Halo: Reach at September 16 will see the first game to chart after 6 empty weeks.

[Chris1964]

Initial expected shipments from azalyn for September releases based on publishers targets and personal expectations from the blog/retailer.

09/09/10 [NDS] One Piece: Gigant Battle (Bandai Namco) - 180.000

16/09/10 [PS3] Front Mission: Evolved (Square Enix) - 70.000
16/09/10 [360] Front Mission: Evolved (Square Enix) - 30.000

22/09/10 [PSP] Black Leopard: A New Tale of Yakuza (Sega) - 240.000

30/09/10 [PSP] K-On! After School Live!! (Sega) - 160.000
30/09/10 [NDS] Okamiden (Capcom) - 120.000
30/09/10 [PS3] Dead Rising 2 (Capcom) - 80.000
30/09/10 [360] Dead Rising 2 (Capcom) - 30.000

He has no idea for Pokemon.

First week expectations
[WII] Metroid: Other M (Nintendo) - 50.000

[Bebpo]

That's a ridiculously high estimate for Okamiden. I can't see it opening at higher than 40-50k. Okami is a niche franchise that has been dead for too long (not counting the phoned in wii port).

[Chris1964]

First shipments can last for weeks (or forever for some games :lol).
One Piece obviously won't have so big opening but retailers have faith to its legs.
Okamiden shipment may be right, may be high. Retailers are wrong all the time with many of their expectations.

Budget re-release of Okami shows that the brand still has power.

Media Create
[PS2] Okami (Capcom) - 60.161 / 142.676
[PS2] Okami [Playstation 2 the Best] (Capcom) - 6.423 / 140.580
[WII] Okami (Capcom) - 23.810 / 36.220

Famitsu
[PS2] Okami (Capcom) - 67.768 / 147.627
[PS2] Okami [Playstation 2 the Best] (Capcom) - / 65.372
[WII] Okami (Capcom) - 25.080 / 38.519

[jcm]

First shipments can last for weeks (or forever for some games :lol).

Systems too. Hi PSP Go.

[faridmon]

Terrible word of mouth is a real bitch in a used market as blood-thirsty as Japan's.

Is the game really bad? I haven't seen any impression on it so i don't know if its good or not.

Sorry to be off-topic.

[Bebpo]

Is the game really bad? I haven't seen any impression on it so i don't know if its good or not. Sorry to be off-topic.

Yeah, it's pretty bad. Only for extreme mech fans who are willing to put up with everything rough and broken about it for the experience.

I'm a huge mech fan and I feel ripped off having paid $90 for what to me is a 5 or 6/10 game.

[FINALFANTASYDOG]

That's a ridiculously high estimate for Okamiden. I can't see it opening at higher than 40-50k. Okami is a niche franchise that has been dead for too long (not counting the phoned in wii port).

Other things he points out:

Okami is already in low supplies at whole sales.

K-On limited edition is almost compleatly sold out at wholesalers, regular edition is in low supplies

Yeah, it's pretty bad. Only for extreme mech fans who are willing to put up with everything rough and broken about it for the experience.

Not to mention mech games are generally extremly front-loaded, anyway.

[Chris1964]

Famitsu August top 10: 26/07/10-29/08/10

01. [WII] Wii Party (Nintendo) - 370.903 / 795.262
02. [PS3] Sengoku Basara 3 (Capcom) - 340.024 / NEW
03. [PSP] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva 2 (Sega) - 310.522 / NEW
04. [PSP] Monster Hunter Diary: Pokapoka Ailu Village (Capcom) - 280.521 / NEW
05. [PS3] Another Century's Episode R (Bandai Namco) - 216.748 / NEW
06. [PSP] Tales of Phantasia: Narikiri Dungeon X (Bandai Namco) - 165.636 / 165.636
07. [NDS] Inazuma Eleven 3: World Challenge!! Spark / Bomber (Level 5) - 130.997 / 801.889
08. [NDS] Kamen Rider Battle: Ganbaride Card Battle Taisen (Bandai Namco) - 96.932 / NEW
09. [WII] Sengoku Basara 3 (Capcom) - 83.317 / 83.317
10. [WII] Dragon Quest: Monster Battle Road Victory (Square Enix) - 75.250 / 263.261

[farnham]

wow DQMBMR could actually hit 300k

[Segata Sanshiro]

wow DQMBMR could actually hit 300k

It's started to hit the "bomba" tables in some retailers, at a bargaineriffic 4000 yen, so that might be helping.

[Cosmonaut X]

wow DQMBMR could actually hit 300k

...which would mean it had finally sold its first shipment. A reasonable achievement (assuming it did it without across-the-board price-slashing) but not one I'd be shouting about.

EDIT: ...and there's Segata to add a bit of perspective :-)

[Spiegel]

Amazon has been selling the game at a discounted price since pretty much the first week and now it's 50% off.

Peace Walker (still on the first shipment i think) and DQMJ2 are also heavily discounted but those were released in April.