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entrement
Member
(11-17-2010, 06:37 AM)
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In regards to being the mainstream video game juggernaut. This is not a qualitative analysis, whether you like the Wii or Nintendo games, but the future doesn't look too bright. Here's why:

The 3DS: Nintendo is not a big company. They have small, dedicated internal teams. With the 3DS push, could one say that many of the key Nintendo teams--the Zelda Team, after finishing SS and EAD Tokyo, who can be working on anything, with Miyamoto hinting on 3D Mario on the 3DS, could Nintendo's dev teams already moving onto the 3DS.

The Wi___ line: The Wii____ line has been gangbusters for Nintendo. With the exception of WiiMusic, they sold millions worldwide, however, the most recent--Wii Party didn't even chart on NPD. I hear it did respectably in Japan and I'm not aware of Europe's reception. But such a big drop off in a such a tentpole line seems troubling for Nintendo.

Competing mindshare from Move and Kinect: Now that the HD twins have some form of motion control, Sony and MS have essentially created a diversion for prospective, new customers. Would a gaming layperson, who has no idea about NPD, gaming sites, etc, easily be swayed away from a potential Wii purchase for a 360 with Kinect or a PS3, with additional BR functionality?

Again, this discussion is not about whether you like the Wii or not, but to see if this is a trend and what does this means for the industry.

Furthermore, even if sales drop to hell. Nintendo's strategy was brilliant. They became relevant again, avoiding obscuring that could've have easily happened after the Gamecube. They've shown everyone that a new market exist and can be catered to with great results and they've positioned themselves nicely for the next generation.
Last edited by entrement; 11-17-2010 at 06:41 AM.
beast786
Member
(11-17-2010, 06:38 AM)
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So Gaf was right all along?
JWong
Banned
(11-17-2010, 06:39 AM)
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Despite a "Strong E3", they completely forgot their target audience.

This year is definitely a misstep for them.
Gram Negative Cocci
Member
(11-17-2010, 06:40 AM)
I believe motion controls are an established part of how we play games now. Seeing how there is no going back after this, the Wii will live on through its successors. Nintendo is going to have to figure out how to re-entice their base though. They have to figure out a way for existing Wii owners to WANT to upgrade.
Gospel
Parmesan et Romano
(11-17-2010, 06:41 AM)
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yes and as a result they are doomed

so much so in fact that they are almost far beyond the point of going 3rd party.
Rainier
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(11-17-2010, 06:41 AM)
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Originally Posted by JWong

Despite a "Strong E3", they completely forgot their target audience.

This year is definitely a misstep for them.

Pretty sure they made more profit this year than Sony or Microsoft. Oh, by target audience I guess you meant gamers, not shareholders.
Megadragon15
Member
(11-17-2010, 06:42 AM)
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I think it is a little too early to pronounce the demise of the Wii.
cosmicblizzard
Shounen Iconoclast
(11-17-2010, 06:43 AM)
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I think we should wait until the holiday season is over before all the doom and gloom talk. A good majority of their sales from last year were during Nov and Dec. If Kinect really has taken the motion crown, Nintendo will have to think of something but I highly doubt they'll be out of the game.
Log4Girlz
I recently went to my friends house to check out his wii. I was generally impressed. It was larger than I expected though.
(11-17-2010, 06:43 AM)
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Originally Posted by Serenade

yes and as a result they are doomed

so much so in fact that they are almost far beyond the point of going 3rd party.

They are going 4th party confirmed.
Narag
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(11-17-2010, 06:43 AM)
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Wouldn't this discussion be better relegated until the December NPD information?
entrement
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(11-17-2010, 06:43 AM)
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Originally Posted by JWong

Despite a "Strong E3", they completely forgot their target audience.

This year is definitely a misstep for them.

Do you mean casual gamers? They're lineup this year has been mostly traditional stuff--SP:SS, Metroid: Other M, Kirby's Epic Yarn, and DKCR.


Originally Posted by cosmicblizzard

I think we should wait until the holiday season is over before all the doom and gloom talk. A good majority of their sales from last year were during Nov and Dec. If Kinect really has taken the motion crown, Nintendo will have to think of something but I highly doubt they'll be out of the game.

I never said that they're dead. But I do think the super, crazy, huge numbers from last few years may be over. But, hey, that's still fine. That's why I said phenomena. The Wii will still sell, but will it return to 2007/2008 levels. That I doubt.
Last edited by entrement; 11-17-2010 at 06:47 AM.
Drkirby
Corporate Apologist
(11-17-2010, 06:44 AM)
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I think Nintendo may be winding the Wii down, and this may be the first time they get to pull the trigger to start the next gen them selves, rather then having to react to the competition showing off a new product. Nether Microsoft or Sony seems to be looking to move, and Nintendo could clean up if they play their cards right.
avatar299
Banned
(11-17-2010, 06:45 AM)
people have been waiting for this thread for years.
EatChildren
Chico is Quiet
(11-17-2010, 06:46 AM)
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Depends on their holiday performance. The company will definitely shift priorities to the 3DS, but if holiday sales are strong for their major titles (like DKCR) then I think we'll still see a bit more from Nintendo going through 2011.
udivision
(11-17-2010, 06:46 AM)
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The Wii is going the way of the Music game genre and consoles without motion controls.
Keyser Soze
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(11-17-2010, 06:46 AM)
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godhandiscen
There are millions of whiny 5-year olds on Earth, and I AM THEIR KING.
(11-17-2010, 06:47 AM)
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Originally Posted by Drkirby

I think Nintendo may be winding the Wii down, and this may be the first time they get to pull the trigger to start the next gen them selves, rather then having to react to the competition showing off a new product. Nether Microsoft or Sony seems to be looking to move, and Nintendo could clean up if they play their cards right.

Nintendo first to market with 1:1 motion and a buffed up Xenos capable of doing 720p would be amazing.
Atomski
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(11-17-2010, 06:47 AM)
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I feel like people are over reacting. Sure sales of Wii are slowing down. But who doesn't own one by now? and they seem to be the most stable system this gen (where as people are rebuying ps3s and 360s).

Their lineup is still good, people just don't seem to jump on their games unless it has Mario in the name.

I know eventually down the line I will pick up DKCR and Kirby. But to be honest I seeing shots of Wii games on the Dolphin emulator really make me wish I could play them in HD. :(
Osuwari
fem. sing. acc.
ἡ ἀρίνγη -ας d.o.
(11-17-2010, 06:48 AM)
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the massive mid2008-mid2009 drought is taking effect now. people got tired and moved on and now we have no people to buy this year's games.
entrement
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(11-17-2010, 06:49 AM)
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Originally Posted by Megadragon15

I think it is a little too early to pronounce the demise of the Wii.

Again, guys, I'm not pronouncing its demise. Would you say, however, that it's sales trajectory has peaked or below peak levels? Because the sales charts suggests that.

Holiday sales can blow my thesis out of the water, though.
Last edited by entrement; 11-17-2010 at 06:52 AM.
luoapp
Member
(11-17-2010, 06:50 AM)
Does anyone has a definite LTD sales number?
Atomski
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(11-17-2010, 06:52 AM)
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Also I would not be surprised if Nintendo is pushing all its efforts on the 3DS. I feel like in Japan handhelds are slowly replacing consoles so it would not surprise me if it gets way more attention game wise.
Kandinsky
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(11-17-2010, 06:53 AM)
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Yes its finally over, the fad is over after 4+ years:lol
MidnightScott
Banned
(11-17-2010, 06:53 AM)
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Originally Posted by JWong

Despite a "Strong E3", they completely forgot their target audience.

This year is definitely a misstep for them.

WTF?

Mario Galaxy 2, Kirby, Metroid, and Donkey Kong.

Misstep? I think more like the right step...
cosmicblizzard
Shounen Iconoclast
(11-17-2010, 06:53 AM)
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Originally Posted by entrement

I never said that they're dead. But I do think the super, crazy, huge numbers from last few years may be over. But, hey, that's still fine. That's why I said phenomena. The Wii will still sell, but will it return to 2007/2008 levels. That I doubt.

Remember, 2009 was a slow year for Wii as well. Then they broke a record during the busiest shopping month. While there is no NSMBW or a price drop this year, who's to say there won't be something that is equally as wanted by the masses next year?
abstract alien
baby dolphin -> sun
it's the only way
(11-17-2010, 06:54 AM)
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Not with both of the HD systems riding the the wave with Move and Kintect.
les papillons sexuels
Banned
(11-17-2010, 06:54 AM)

Originally Posted by Rainier

Pretty sure they made more profit this year than Sony or Microsoft.

Maybe, but i think 360/ps3 may have become bigger money makers because of their online services.
Rhindle
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(11-17-2010, 06:55 AM)
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Originally Posted by entrement

Again, guys, I'm not pronouncing its demise. Would you say, however, that it's sales trajectory has peaked or below peak levels? Because the sales charts suggests that.

Holiday sales can blow my thesis out of the water, though.

Obviously. But that's not a particularly interesting observation.
OldJadedGamer
Banned
(11-17-2010, 06:55 AM)
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I don't think it's over but it is winding down. The tech is just too old and they were the first ones out of the gate with the motion controls so there is a lot to build on now. Wii was a great product from them but I don't think it will have super long legs and we should be seeing Wii/2 pretty soon.

After all, the system was showing it's age the day it launched.
civilstrife
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OI OI OI!
(11-17-2010, 06:55 AM)
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Still selling better than PS2 in the same time-frame, isn't it?
GCX
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(11-17-2010, 06:56 AM)
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Nintendo has changed its focus to 3DS and later to Wii2.

Skyward Sword is the only big announced 1st party Wii game in development.
Last edited by GCX; 11-17-2010 at 07:01 AM.
hatchx
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(11-17-2010, 06:57 AM)
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Originally Posted by Osuwari

the massive mid2008-mid2009 drought is taking effect now. people got tired and moved on and now we have no people to buy this year's games.


Pretty much. Holiday 2008 was pretty bad.

I think they can regain some momentum through the holidays if they stay competitive with pricing/advertising. There are a lot of big wii exclusives this year.
marc^o^
Banned
(11-17-2010, 06:57 AM)
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Originally Posted by civilstrife

Still selling better than PS2 in the same time-frame, isn't it?

And will probably remain the best selling console this year globally. The phenomenon is over though.
entrement
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(11-17-2010, 06:58 AM)
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Originally Posted by Rhindle

Obviously. But that's not a particularly interesting observation.

What about Wii Party's failure to chart on NPD? The Wii line games have been almost always been guaranteed gold, but this one seems to be a bomba.
Raistlin
Banned
(11-17-2010, 06:58 AM)
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Originally Posted by beast786

So Gaf was right all along?

Pretty much. It just took a bit longer than we expected.




Originally Posted by Megadragon15

I think it is a little too early to pronounce the demise of the Wii.

Matters what you mean by demise. If it refers to them no longer maintaining a consistently large delta over the competition, then it isn't to early. Crap, Wii isn't even #1 in all territories anymore.
Negator
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(11-17-2010, 06:58 AM)
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Well, I bought(buying) two wii games this year, that's two more than I bought the last two years.
Ashes
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(11-17-2010, 06:59 AM)
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Originally Posted by Megadragon15

I think it is a little too early to pronounce the demise of the Wii.

And that has stopped people before?

Originally Posted by civilstrife

Still selling better than PS2 in the same time-frame, isn't it?

It is. Will nintendo go the route of the ten year life cycle+?
Raistlin
Banned
(11-17-2010, 07:00 AM)
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Originally Posted by civilstrife

Still selling better than PS2 in the same time-frame, isn't it?

You sure about that?
PhoenixDark
(11-17-2010, 07:03 AM)
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Nintendo banked on a fickle casual audience with ADD and are paying for it. They sold a lot of software and hardware but ultimately didn't create as many new gamers as they've claimed. A casual Wii gamer is someone who pulls Wii Sports out for Thanksgiving and Christmas parties with the family.
civilstrife
Oyster Oyster Oyster!
OI OI OI!
(11-17-2010, 07:05 AM)
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Originally Posted by Raistlin

You sure about that?

Reggie is.
BishopLamont
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(11-17-2010, 07:05 AM)
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Originally Posted by beast786

So Gaf was right all along?

Depends who you listen to.
entrement
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(11-17-2010, 07:06 AM)
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Originally Posted by beast786

So Gaf was right all along?

Well not necessarily. I wasn't around during the Wii launch days here, wasn't the consensus with the enthusiast press that the PS3 will going to run away with it?

I still think the Wii will have the highest LTD this generation.

But, and this is a big but, Sony, can easily go tortoise mode, as opposed to the hare, and surpass the Wii worldwide LTD if they play their cards right. Sony really knows how to support their systems over a long period of time.
bon
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(11-17-2010, 07:06 AM)
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Originally Posted by GCX

Nintendo has changed its focus to 3DS and later to Wii2.

Skyward Sword is the only big announced 1st party Wii game is development.

And Pikmin 3! But anyway, that doesn't mean they don't have anything else planned for next year. We didn't know about half of this year's big Wii games until last E3.
antonz
Banned
(11-17-2010, 07:07 AM)
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The Wii has reached a stable sales point. It was selling at unheard of rates that not even the almighty PS2 ever reached. It is like 25% ahead of the PS2 in sales for same time frame.

Nintendo via record setting sales hit the soft cap on saturation so sales have now reduced to normal levels which are on par with or still ahead of the PS2.

Nintendo will not have a 10 year lifespan for the Wii but its not dead either. All 3 consoles are on average selling what would be close to normal sales. Problem is the Wii really distorted sales numbers by its wild launch and following years.
Last edited by antonz; 11-17-2010 at 07:11 AM.
Freezie KO
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(11-17-2010, 07:08 AM)
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Originally Posted by MidnightScott

WTF?

Mario Galaxy 2, Kirby, Metroid, and Donkey Kong.

Misstep? I think more like the right step...

Sin and Punishment 2.

So "forgot their target audience?" Nope.

Sales decline? Yep.
perfectchaos007
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(11-17-2010, 07:08 AM)
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it has sold 30 million units and nintendo wants it to trickle to 45million units before talking successor. However sales have fallen so flat I don't see the Wii selling 45million in its lifespan
cosmicblizzard
Shounen Iconoclast
(11-17-2010, 07:09 AM)
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Originally Posted by entrement

But, and this is a big but, Sony, can easily go tortoise mode, as opposed to the hare, and surpass the Wii worldwide LTD if they play their cards right. Sony really knows how to support their systems over a long period of time.

Not happening unless they keep it alive until 2020, maybe later.
Mike D
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(11-17-2010, 07:09 AM)
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It may be "over", but with the 3DS landing in just over 3 months, Nintendo will be laughing once again. All those Wii memes of the past 4 years are gonna shift right on over to 3DS ones.
Rhindle
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(11-17-2010, 07:09 AM)
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Originally Posted by entrement

What about Wii Party's failure to chart on NPD? The Wii line games have been almost always been guaranteed gold, but this one seems to be a bomba.

I think there never really was such a thing as a "Wii line". Wii Sports/Resort and Wii Fit are really the only games that have sold well, and I think the attraction with those titles was really the introduction of a new peripheral and new control mechanics.

Nintendo could very well still revive Wii sales, if they surprise us with a new peripheral that catches on.
GCX
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(11-17-2010, 07:10 AM)
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Originally Posted by bon

And Pikmin 3! But anyway, that doesn't mean they don't have anything else planned for next year. We didn't know about half of this year's big Wii games until last E3.

Pikmin 3 has never been officially announced. Miyamoto just says "well yeah it's not in active development but we'll get it done! For Wii! I swear!" at every E3.

And there's not really much room for unannounced Wii 1st party games because there's so many 3DS games (and probably Wii2 games) in development.

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