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Pachter: "PSP2 will be dead on arrival" [Update 675]
- Thread starter DaBargainHunta
- Start date
Pachter said in July the price of the Kinect was too high and would fail. Then after it started selling well, he said the shortage of the Kinect and Move was a "ruse" by MS and Sony to boost sales. Now he says the Kinect and Move will do very well the next year. "25 million in combined sales for the Move and Kinect in 2011".
Not much success with those two devices.
I agree the PSP2 will have limited appeal. Most likely the same folks who have a PSP will just upgrade. Too much competition in the handheld market.
Not much success with those two devices.
I agree the PSP2 will have limited appeal. Most likely the same folks who have a PSP will just upgrade. Too much competition in the handheld market.
Zoe said:
depends who you are.
If you're a small developer with low overheads and crank out a hit, you can make what you would consider to be big bucks.
If you're a big developer/publisher with high overheads you need a larger return to make 'big bucks'
The revenue for app store looks very impressive, but its spread very thinly. Whats the average revenue per title, or even for the top 50 games? How does that compare to the top 50 on DS for instance?
Surely at some point the Apple honeymoon needs to come to an end. ipod touch/iphone will be normalised and people will stop assuming it'll take over the world by default.
Vinterbird
Member
CryptiK said:
Some of his statements are somewhat out there, but he's pretty spot on in his analysis and I generally agree with him.
DOA might be a bit melodramatic but I tend to side with Pachter on this one. the PSP has been a nightmare for software sales in North America even with some great IP. If PSP2 is just more powerful but with the same traditional games on it I don't see it becoming a success.
the 3DS has the 3D effect to help differentiate it from the "all in one" iOS device. Nintendo moved away from trying to do what the ipod touch does (media + internet + games) to focus on a type of gaming experience that you can't have anywhere else. i think it'll be successful for them.
I just don't have any confidence in Sony to position the PSP2 as anything other than a beefier PSP that will try to replicate the internet and media playback of the iPhone but be way shittier at it. It could still have some great games, but I bet it's not going to be enough.
the 3DS has the 3D effect to help differentiate it from the "all in one" iOS device. Nintendo moved away from trying to do what the ipod touch does (media + internet + games) to focus on a type of gaming experience that you can't have anywhere else. i think it'll be successful for them.
I just don't have any confidence in Sony to position the PSP2 as anything other than a beefier PSP that will try to replicate the internet and media playback of the iPhone but be way shittier at it. It could still have some great games, but I bet it's not going to be enough.
LCfiner said:
Both Nintendo and Sony are in a space differentiated from iOS. Both offer platforms for - as they would see it - 'real' games, premium games, a space for developers to viably sell $30/40+ games.
Nintendo's trying to add a twist as they always do with 3D. I'm not sure what if anything Sony will offer in terms of novelty, but I think the more important differentiator for either is in the nature of the content. If these kinds of games were finding a market on smart devices at the expense of dedicated handhelds' share, then 3D would start to look awfully marginal as a differentiator.
The big question is if smart devices in general (rather than iOS specifically) will ever break out to support that kind of more premium gaming. It seems like technically that ability isn't far away. Question is whether the audience will be there to support that kind of gaming at those kinds of pricepoints on these devices.
gofreak said:
I'm of the opinion that they're all in the same space as they're all vying for a user's time. there's only so many hours in the day to spend on recreational activities.
And I don't really want to focus too much on iOS here. My reasoning for thinking the PSP2 will tank has more to do with my lack of faith in Sony to deliver. Even if iOS wasn't around, I wouldn't consider the PSP2 to be a sure thing.
Night_Trekker
Member
Patrick Bateman said:
I think that was the point behind DSiware and PSP Minis: getting the market ready for the idea of a downloadable service for smaller games in the next generation of handhelds.
LCfiner said:
Of course, they are all competing on a certain level, I wasn't saying they're not. Indeed, the market for small and cheap games on certain devices may in fact be eroding the market for premium handheld gaming altogether - we'll just have to wait and see. You were talking about differentiation though, and that's what my point was about, that the more fundamental differentiation between iOS/smart-devices and dedicated systems is one shared by Nintendo and Sony.
I genuinely think it is (or will). You only need to find a few gems (20+ hours of good gameplay for £1) before the idea of paying £20-£40 for a handheld game becomes utterly ludicrous. Then there are things like Monkey Island SE (59p) or Nelson Tethers Puzzle Agent (59p). They'd set me back £20 on DS, at least, and I'd gain nothing from playing them on a dedicated device.gofreak said:
Another huge factor for me, is that many people in my social circle that wouldn't dream of buying a dedicated games device (handheld or otherwise) are playing, enjoying and discussing iOS games. I'm pretty much the only 'gamer' in my group of friends and yet they now spend more time talking about games than I do. Nobody would smile if you pulled out a PSP2 in the pub but once the conversation turns to 'Highest Score in Monkey Kick' or 'Can you beat that level in Angry Birds?', the phones are out and gaming is openly taking place. More games that operate like Scrabble (iPad for game board, iPhones for tile racks) will only make that sort of thing more commonplace.
I'm not convinced that there is a huge market for playing 'console' games on the go anymore (in the west). I'm not even certain there's a strong market for dedicated handheld gaming devices not made by Nintendo (in the west). As you say though, we'll see.
gofreak said:
Right, but I noted right off the bat that high quality games and recognizable IP have not helped the PSP do well. Even before iOS hit it big as a gaming platform, the PSP wasn't lighting the charts on fire.
if the PSP was a success and had high selling software, then I would use the argument of high quality games as a factor for the success of the PSP2. but those qualities have largely gone unrecognized in the market (in NA) and I don't think they're going to be enough to differentiate the PSP2.
Opus Angelorum
Member
gofreak said:
I think this is exactly what has happened.
Certainly from personal experience with friends and family, if a game on iTunes is more than £0.59 it's either scoffed at or subject to very close scrutiny.
Now on the face of it, that seems silly considering the price of 'real' games but this is exactly the kind of mentality that is bred from a small and cheap game environment.
dark10x said:
I'm assuming he is using the term PSP as the platform, rather than the actual device.
LCfiner said:
I'm not arguing for the success of PSP/2, or that it was or will be successful on the basis of premium games. I'm just pointing out it's the most fundamental point of differentiation between the types of games you get on dedicated handhelds and that you get on smart devices. 3D is not the big fundamental differentiator between 3DS and iOS - it's the type of content supported, $30/$40 'premium' games. You can't say that Nintendo is differentiated from iOS and Playstation is not - they both are holding the same line about what handheld gaming should be at a more fundamental level...'bigger', higher end, more expensive. Even Nintendo's tune has come round to more closely resemble Sony's about the difference between smartphone and dedicated handheld gaming, and I don't think the sudden interest in 'hardcore', higher end games is coincidental. They know they have to work harder to maintain this business, the big question in the shorter term I think is if they can keep the more casual audience in this pricier/premium context too.
MarshMellow96
Member
From my personal experience with the PSP, Sony will probably make a great handheld yet still find a way to mess it up, be it through a poor DD service with severe regional disparity, or an aesthetically pleasing product with some glaring flaws. I personally feel that they didn't push online gaming enough. Most games that came out for the PSP that could have done with a true online element (MGS
W, MH) were 'online' insofar as they could be played ad-hoc with others on a wi-fi network. I don't know about anyone else but I didn't have any friends who owned a PSP, much less friends I could meet up with to play a game. Playing Killzone PSP online was great fun and something that - if ubiquitous - would really push the PSP2 into the limelight. Sony will probably prove me wrong however..
W, MH) were 'online' insofar as they could be played ad-hoc with others on a wi-fi network. I don't know about anyone else but I didn't have any friends who owned a PSP, much less friends I could meet up with to play a game. Playing Killzone PSP online was great fun and something that - if ubiquitous - would really push the PSP2 into the limelight. Sony will probably prove me wrong however..gofreak said:
OK, we agree that it's a differentiator but this whole thread has been about the potential success of the PSP2. I was trying to put that differentiator in context.
maybe that backhanded trackpad nonsense that keeps popping up will separate the PSP2 from the pack. I've been very vocal about it being a dumbass idea but, hey, maybe i'll be wrong and it'll click with folks.
(like kids wearing their pants backwards in the 90s!)
Patrick Bateman said:
I'm only intimately familiar with DSiWare, but Nintendo already haveit's just that it's barely promoted and really gets overshadowed by the big games.
This is just my way-out-there theory, but iOS's cheap games have commanded attention from day one because they were all that was on that platform. Plus, there's been a ton of self-promotion by a bunch of passionate small teams, since it's a wide-open platform. DSiWare has its small teams too, but the barrier to entry is much, much higher; the net result is there's a lot fewer titles on the service and a lot fewer people talking about it.
That's what I was thinking. It's a quite odd.
I'm just gonna start making BS game market predictions based on pretty much nothing so that I can get a nice-paying job as an analyst while becoming internet famous.
I read somewhere the best selling Iphone game sold like 4 million times for a price of 0,50 maybe 0,60$. That's a joke compared to what Nintendo DS Games revenue. Granted the budget for that game is a lot lower, but still. I don't see publisher pushing for that market with such a uncertainty and 99 cents dumpring prices.
Actually, even major news corporations have covered the 3DS. It has certainly been featured in a lot of gaming magazines, news portals and so on. I think you are underestimating kids. Nintendo just does not have the draw it once had for kids.Soneet said:During a time when the 3DS isn't out yet and has no advertisements? Gosh, I would never have guessed. But kids choosing a next year product out of a list of everything, including the iPod and iPad (lol iPad, is this even part of the discussion?), you should at least think a little bit ahead and know something is up.
No need to think, there was a survey. You'd be surprised how many kids know about the 3DS already.
Consider that this is without a big marketing push yet.
Just look how the Wii is doing compared with Playstation 3, there is a shift going on.
MarshMellow96
Member
Kids 6-12 want smartphones? Sheesh...
zigg said:
Part of it is the prominence of the appstore vs the prominence of Nintendo and Sony's stores, relatively. The primary content channel on dedicated handhelds is still the game store. The devices, to date, have not been net-centric. A lot people might use these devices without ever using or clapping eyes on the digital stores. Same is really not true of iOS or even Android. They're marketed off the back of those apps, they are the one-and-only primary consumable, and they're highly connected to the delivery mechanism for that content.
You're right though, that there's also a definite divide in audience taste and expectation too. Probably not true of all users of dedicated systems, but a good chunk of the audience on these platforms possibly does think less of 'cheap games', and certainly Sony and Nintendo are trying to promote that attitude. The big question in the medium term (over this next cycle and the one after), is how large that audience will be, if there are shifts due to the increasing ubiquity of devices carrying cheap games. I think it depends on how committed a user is to gaming, but there are plenty of people who aren't so committed, and they're vulnerable from Nintendo and Sony's POV. The market for premium gaming I think will still be pretty large though, at least for the next cycle.
I'm not sure I can agree with that statement, we have well over 140 million iOS devices out there. Angry Birds (Excluding the holiday version) have passed 10 million paid downloads. Lets assume everyone of those downloads was when they had a sale for 99c. That is about 6,600,000 million dollar alone. Now we can add the iPad version which sold well over 200 000 units at $4,99 which should give us about an extra million in profit. So on that game alone they have made over $7,600,000 in profits.AshMcCool said:
This is all from a platform which costs you $99 per year, $229 for an iPod Touch and a Mac to create and publish games.
Seems like a good investment.
I guess we can only wait and see how is rightapana said:
Sony and Nintendo must be competitive with pricing for budget titles (3DSWare and PSPMinis). There will always be a place for premium titles on the go. Its easier to create budget titles for sure, but I see Apple in the future going the route of premium titles like MGSeace Walker to compete.
The only game I've downloaded on my iPhone is Angy Birds Lite. I have a PSP and a DS in my work bag for commute gaming. I'm not too keen on sucking up the battery on games with my iPhone.
The formula is simple in my opinion for Sony:
PS2 emulation (downloadable titles on PS Store)
PSP minis
PSOne titles
PSP downloadable titles
They already have a HUGE catalog of games out of the gate. This should be an advantage.
Oh, and while their at it, let me play PS3 games via Remote Play. If the button layout is the same of course
eace Walker to compete.The only game I've downloaded on my iPhone is Angy Birds Lite. I have a PSP and a DS in my work bag for commute gaming. I'm not too keen on sucking up the battery on games with my iPhone.
The formula is simple in my opinion for Sony:
PS2 emulation (downloadable titles on PS Store)
PSP minis
PSOne titles
PSP downloadable titles
They already have a HUGE catalog of games out of the gate. This should be an advantage.
Oh, and while their at it, let me play PS3 games via Remote Play. If the button layout is the same of course
I think the convenience of cell phone games is the biggest advantage. They're obviously not as deep as DS/PSP games, but they get the job done and don't require me to bring an additional device anywhere. Plus, and feel free to disagree, I'm much less embarrassed playing a cell game on the train/waiting to be seated at a restaurant/while my gf tries on clothes than I would be taking out a DS or PSP.
But there reaches a point in which the quality of the phone, mp3 player, gaming, etc. in the all-in-one device becomes "good enough" that the mass consumers don't care that there may be better, more expensive options and would rather have the convenience of it in their phone. Back in 2000 with our shitty Nokia phone cameras, you could see why the average consumer would desire a digital camera instead of using the phone camera, but with the leaps and bounds phone cameras have made over the past decade, the desire to have the camera packed in with their phone overcomes their desire to have standalone-camera-quality pictures. The same thing happened to music a long time ago with mp3s. First music was on vinyl, then cassettes came out and their feature was "better sounding!" And then CDs came out and their feature was "It sounds better!" And now, MP3s are the big new thing, but MP3s are actually a downgrade in audio fidelity, but the sound quality is now "good enough" so that convenience overtakes sound quality in importance.StarEye said:
Summary: convenience, by leaps and bounds, trumps every other factor in the minds of the modern, mass market, technology consumer.
Gram Negative Cocci
Member
I think you guys are undersestimating how iphone/itouch have changed the expectations of handheld game prices. I am genuinely worried about the 3ds. The 3d gimmick will be a good differentiator, unless Apple puts a 3d display on their models at some point. Its going to be very important that Nintendo pushes their online store HARD and showcase that you can also download tetris for a dollar... BUT IN 3D.
Other than that, I think Pachter is right, the market for psp2 is miniscule. I'm sure the Japanese will support its entire lifespan. After the floundering ps3 and the inevitable psp2 flop, I'm starting to wonder if there will be a PS4 at all.
Other than that, I think Pachter is right, the market for psp2 is miniscule. I'm sure the Japanese will support its entire lifespan. After the floundering ps3 and the inevitable psp2 flop, I'm starting to wonder if there will be a PS4 at all.
MarshMellow96
Member
SmokyDave said:
Oh there's not a day that doesn't go by when I see someone half my age with the latest Blackberry :lol
I'm sure GAF will disagree with me, but kids don't need smartphones. My girlfriend's brother is 7 and he's getting a damn netbook for Christmas. It just seems like overkill. If they want a smartphone to play games well then they've really got their priorities mixed up...
I don't know. Maybe I'm jealous because I didn't have an iPhone when I was 7. The Talkboy was where it was at when I was a kid. :lol
rezuth said:
I've been taking the train into Philadelphia, 3 times a week for the past year and a half. I have never once seen an adult with a DS or PSP. Everyone is either on their Kindle, iPhone, iPad, Blackberry or android device.
I've seen plenty of kids playing their DS at places like the mall. I'm not saying DS is ONLY for kids, but there is a social stigma attached to playing games out in public. I almost feel that it's like, "You can't go one second without playing video games?"
iOS games seem to be pretty socially acceptable though. Of course, none of this could bother you and you can feel free to game on however you want. I feel too socially awkward :/
The PS3 worldwide is barely behind the 360, and while the PSP hasn't been a hit the size of any of Nintendo's handhelds, it has sold millions upon millions upon millions of units worldwide, is hugely popular in Japan, has survived for six years already and 2011 is shaping up to be its best year ever on the software side.Gram Negative Cocci said:
Stop thinking like being "in 3rd place" actually means anything. It does in fanboy wars, but little else. The PS3 and PSP are both highly successful, widely adopted, high selling, profitable products. There will certainly be some sort of "Playstation 4."
Right now it's a completely useless prediction, we don't even know the business model for the product, its market target, price and so on.
I think Sony has realized about people wanting low cost/almost free software on a handheld for a long time, they have created the Minis brand, they have tried the strategy "You pay for the hardware but we give you a lot of free games" with the PSP Go, so they have been experimenting too.
They clearly realize the point Pachter is making and I've the feeling that Sony has been looking much more at Apple than Nintendo while making PSP2, they want the Apple portable market not the Nintendo traditional 'handheld for kids' market.
I think Sony has realized about people wanting low cost/almost free software on a handheld for a long time, they have created the Minis brand, they have tried the strategy "You pay for the hardware but we give you a lot of free games" with the PSP Go, so they have been experimenting too.
They clearly realize the point Pachter is making and I've the feeling that Sony has been looking much more at Apple than Nintendo while making PSP2, they want the Apple portable market not the Nintendo traditional 'handheld for kids' market.
RPGCrazied
Member
Seeing as how I don't even have a PSP yet, who knows. Why won't they let you buy and play PSP games on the PS3? I mean, they are both sony, they would both see the $$$$. I don't understand. I'm really not going to fork over $150 just for BBS and Crisis Core.
