Jaded Alyx
Member
I just don't think selling a million worldwide for a game of Prime 3's scale is a lot.Mael said:
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Nintendo Power Reveals All Wii US Million Sellers (W/ Numbers)
- Thread starter radcliff
- Start date
Nintendo is preparing a very big first shipment for Europe (and worldwide I guess) and at least limited edition preorders are doing great. I don't see how the conditions for Zelda are not healthy AT ALL.Mael said:I do live in Europe
I'd agree that the conditions are not healthy AT ALL.
Jaded Alyx
Member
Which is my point all along. I wouldn't consider that selling well.Mael said:
But I'm not Nintendo and I don't know their expectations.
walking fiend said:
Yep, I don't know how it will turn out but I have a close idea
Look, I'm a Zelda fan and I wish SS would turn out in a masterpiece and sell billions but the second point is not going to happen and if you think it'll sell 10m WW with the arguments you've posted (and have been refuted) like the boxart one, the starving Wii users, the hardcore game with motion controls right... I'll tell you again: You don't know what you are talking about, sorry.
We'll see a year from now who was right
I was more talking about the current Wii situation, I mean the situation for the n64 wasn't healthy at all with only 1 or 2 Rare games a year and 1 Nintendo game a year and that didn't stop the games from selling really well.Chris1964 said:
I'm just saying that it could be better.
I'd say that your problem is more about how much Prime 1 sold then because really Prime 2 and 3 couldn't do miracles either.Jaded Alyx said:
Jaded Alyx
Member
Red Steel sold a million in the US?agrajag said:
Sho_Nuff82
Member
I'd love to see a comparable list for the other consoles, it would be a nice wrap up for this generation of sales-age US.
The Wii has the most bizarre sales pattern of any console in history, surely.
The Wii has the most bizarre sales pattern of any console in history, surely.
walking fiend
Member
Well, I am usually very good with my sale predictions, so I definitely believe I mostly know what I am talking about and I really don't see them being refuted by weak arguments (Skyrim and AC and U3 being the closest games pointed out as Zelda competitors, or SMG2 as a benchmark, shows how weak the refutations have been). And I don't really base my predictions on whether I am a fan of a game or not.Orgen said:Yep, I don't know how it will turn out but I have a close idea
Look, I'm a Zelda fan and I wish SS would turn out in a masterpiece and sell billions but the second point is not going to happen and if you think it'll sell 10m WW with the arguments you've posted (and have been refuted) like the boxart one, the starving Wii users, the hardcore game with motion controls right... I'll tell you again: You don't know what you are talking about, sorry.
We'll see a year from now who was right
Whether this happens or not though, depends on factors like how the game will actually turn out or how much marketing Nintendo does for both Wii and Zelda, if it gets a Wii bundle of itself, which I don't have anything concrete on. But as long as possibility goes, I see it totally possible.
And even if you had played the game, instead of your friend, I wouldn't call that having a close idea of how the game will turn out, as the general consensus may be totally different. I for one, don't like either MK or NSMB on DS at all, I think they are at best good games, yet both critics and people received them much better, the same with TP; or with games like MGS4 which people have very polarized views.
Cornbread78
Member
Meier said:
Yeah, I'm referring more towards the Hardcore audience (Most M rates games) than anything else that are multiplatform. What are they going to do to differentiate themselves from Sony of MS to bring more gamers onto the platform. Can they come up with a marketing plan and get enough 3rd party support to try and make it difficult for husbands to distance themselves from the Wii and purchase a seperate system for themselves (PS360) in the household and keep the rest of the family on the Wii?
Back when the Wii and PS3 were hard to come by, I would have had a hard time selling to my wife I HAD to buy a PS3 ($499) to get the games I wanted to play as well at the Wii ($299) if similiar games were available on both systems back then...
CrunchinJelly
formerly cjelly
Looking at the third party list you can basically see the exact point that the third party software Market on Wii bottomed-out/when third parties stopped giving a shit about the Wii.
walking fiend
Member
Cornbread78
Member
Random Question:
Do those numbers include sales from Wal-Mart? I remember hearing they do not provide numbers like other retailers...
Do those numbers include sales from Wal-Mart? I remember hearing they do not provide numbers like other retailers...
walking fiend said:
I don't know how good you are with predictions, but knowing beforehand that no Zelda title has ever surpassed 10m WW (not even close) this is the argument list you have posted:
walking fiend said:
The only compelling argument is the second point and isn't enough to skyrocket the Zelda sales to the 10m WW.
You've been told that Mario (more popular than Zelda and with one 3D game that has surpassed the 10m WW milestone like Super Mario 64) couldn't surpass the 10m in the Wii with the Galaxy games (universal acclaimed and GOTY's) and yet you say that the refutations have been weak and your arguments haven't? Ok then.
And no, my opinion of the game won't change the sales of the game... and neither will do the opinion of the media and the possible GOTY awards SS could get
OldJadedGamer
Banned
Meier said:
You wouldn't be surprised as I believe that the Wii has more than double the userbase of the PS3.
Orgen said:The only compelling argument is the second point and isn't enough to skyrocket the Zelda sales to the 10m WW.
You've been told that Mario (more popular than Zelda and with one 3D game that has surpassed the 10m WW milestone like Super Mario 64) couldn't surpass the 10m in the Wii with the Galaxy games (universal acclaimed and GOTY's) and yet you say that the refutations have been weak and your arguments haven't? Ok then.
And no, my opinion of the game won't change the sales of the game... and neither will do the opinion of the media and the possible GOTY awards SS could get
I'd argue that Mario 64 sometimes being bundled IIRC with n64 might have helped the game to reach its height.
I'd also argue that it was the 1rst 3D Mario game with hype that Galaxy could only dream off also helped it too.
Finally the fact that no 3D Mario sold more than this one would indicated that 3D Mario is a franchise that only lose customers more than anything
ElectricBlanketFire said:
In the US?
ElectricBlanketFire
Member
I could have sworn Metroid Prime 3 cracked a million...
Mael said:
If we get picky...
I could argue that Mario 64 was a launch game (like TP was) and has sold much more than TP (Wii + GC) or any other Zelda game.
I could argue that despite Mario 64 being bundled (if that's correct, I don't know) it has sold more than 10 million on an userbase of 32 million, a feat that no Zelda game could ever achieve on other systems with more installed base.
I could argue that your third point is incorrect seeing the sales of Mario Galaxy after the sales of Mario Sunshine.
But being serious now, that's not what we are arguing. Could you argue that Zelda has more "selling power" than Mario? Could you argue that some Zelda game has ever surpassed 8 million WW? No.
Even with those facts someone says what walking fiend has posted and the only compelling argument (the Wii installed base) he/she has made could be refuted seeing the Galaxy sales.
What else is left? Why could SS be the best seller in the series?
Tough, it also needs to be keep in mind that:
-Super Mario Galaxy = November 2007
-New Super Mario Bros. Wii = November 2009
-Super Mario Galaxy 2 = May 2010
Galaxy 2 is not only the newest game (1 year old just a few months ago); but it was released less than half a year after New Super Mario Bros. Wii which sold...a ton (nearly twice what Galaxy 1 did in the US).
If anything, that's may be part of the reason why 3D Land plays more like the 2D games; even when it retains the look of the Galaxy ones.
As far as Skyward Sword goes; it will sell great but maybe not as great as some expect. Ocarina did around 8 million, Majora's Mask did around half of that. And the following Zelda -console games has done around that too (4-5 million).
But we'll see.
-Super Mario Galaxy = November 2007
-New Super Mario Bros. Wii = November 2009
-Super Mario Galaxy 2 = May 2010
Galaxy 2 is not only the newest game (1 year old just a few months ago); but it was released less than half a year after New Super Mario Bros. Wii which sold...a ton (nearly twice what Galaxy 1 did in the US).
If anything, that's may be part of the reason why 3D Land plays more like the 2D games; even when it retains the look of the Galaxy ones.
As far as Skyward Sword goes; it will sell great but maybe not as great as some expect. Ocarina did around 8 million, Majora's Mask did around half of that. And the following Zelda -console games has done around that too (4-5 million).
But we'll see.
Orgen said:
Good point all around except for SUnshine which was quite clearly a dud and was on a userbase that would have required an attach rate of 50% to improve on Mario 64.
Galaxy 2 was released mere months after NSMBW, it's quite clear people prefered to buy 2D Mario instead of 3D Mario.
I would even argue that 2D Mario negatively affected 3D Mario here, which might be why they're trying to pass Mario 3D Land a 3D Mario game as a 2D Mario game with perspective (protip it didn't work with Other M it won't work here either).
But yeah I could argue that SS will be the best selling Zelda but I can't possibly argue that it'll do 10M WW, I'm not that optimistic.
And even then the massive emphasis on puzzle they pushed over...well world building or even the battle system make it seems they don't think that it's important and I'm not sure Zelda is that good of a puzzler to warrant extra sales due to that.
I'd also argue that the artstyle is given a much bigger importance than needed.
I mean no one gave a shit about artstyle for any Zelda but WW after all....and that one sold so well they decided to make OoT 2.0 just to be sure people were still interested in the franchise.
walking fiend
Member
Orgen said:
SM64 was the only super mario game on N64, While there are 3 on the Wii, one selling over 20m, the other two combined selling considerably more than SM64, and as I said, if SMG2 hadn't been released, SMG alone would have probably sold more than SM64 alone.
None of the reasons I listed would make it magically sell 50% more, but if each adds like 5% to the overall sales of the game, while installed based probably helping it more than that, in the end they'll help it to sell a lot more.
It is nothing very concrete, but the bundled Zelda is currently ranked 13 while non-bundle is ranked like 80-something on Amazon (As opposed to Ani's claim that this bundle doesn't matter much because Wiimote+ is available in lots of other ways, compared to say Zapper). I am not willing to point out historical examples that how my points have proved to make games sell more, as it is daunting and time consuming, but there aren't anywhere as absurd as you make them look.
Ok Mael and walking fiend, let's drop the Mario discussion because it's not the main topic we were talking about (I'm not going to discuss if Sunshine is a dud or if Galaxy would have sell 10 millions if Galaxy 2 hadn't been released because it's irrelevant).
You say that SS could be the best seller of the series (or sell 10 millions or whatever) and I haven't seen any compelling argument yet that could make it happen.
Walking, your list:
1. SS could sell 3-4m in the US and not sell more than 7m WW.
2. Ok (arguable, but Ok)
3. More important (or hyped) than "OMG REALISTIC ZELDA LIKE THE GC DEMO!!!!!"? (aka TP) I doubt it.
4. People starving for good games get other consoles/games if necessary and are not waiting 10 months to play a game with nothing else in between. And Europe just got Xenoblade and Japan Epic Mickey, GoldenEye, Inazuma Eleven and Rhythm Heaven (maybe they aren't so starving, I don't know).
5. Not every game bundled with a remote sells like Wii Play.
6. It's not (Red Steel 2 and no, it hasn't sold any close to 10m WW... it hasn't sold as much as Red Steel)
7. Maybe, nothing confirmed yet.
And Amazon lists (like comgnet) aren't good indicators and you should know it.
You say that SS could be the best seller of the series (or sell 10 millions or whatever) and I haven't seen any compelling argument yet that could make it happen.
Walking, your list:
walking fiend said:
1. SS could sell 3-4m in the US and not sell more than 7m WW.
2. Ok (arguable, but Ok)
3. More important (or hyped) than "OMG REALISTIC ZELDA LIKE THE GC DEMO!!!!!"? (aka TP) I doubt it.
4. People starving for good games get other consoles/games if necessary and are not waiting 10 months to play a game with nothing else in between. And Europe just got Xenoblade and Japan Epic Mickey, GoldenEye, Inazuma Eleven and Rhythm Heaven (maybe they aren't so starving, I don't know).
5. Not every game bundled with a remote sells like Wii Play.
6. It's not (Red Steel 2 and no, it hasn't sold any close to 10m WW... it hasn't sold as much as Red Steel)
7. Maybe, nothing confirmed yet.
And Amazon lists (like comgnet) aren't good indicators and you should know it.
CoD sells faster, the big Nintendo games sell more. That's pretty much it.Lyphen said:
There are Nintendo games that increase from the first entries as well (Smash Bros, Mario Kart, 2D Mario) while the competition have franchises that have gone down in sales (Fable, Ratchet & Clank, Killzone, LBP).uchihasasuke said:
Not really, since there was never a point where third parties really supported the thing. Despite this, the biggest third party game in the list is a relatively recent game.cjelly said:
Sho_Nuff82
Member
Jokeropia said:
Fable 3 > Fable 2 > Fable for their first two NPD months iirc.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
Man God said:
Fable 2:
October 2008 - 790k
November 2008 - 184k
Total - 974k
Fable 3
October 2010 - 580k
November 2010 - 551k
Total - 1,131k
walking fiend
Member
Orgen said:
1. Of course, I won't argue that.
I said I won't be surprised if it ever does 10m. I am not saying this is going to happen, but it may happen. I used the word 'definitely' for passing 3m in the US, not 10m sales WW.
2. OK
3. The first Zelda with Romance? A new arch enemy? Overworld? The game Miyamoto is betting on to be the best Zelda? The first time combat is going under major revision? An incredible Wiimote bundle? Not to mention this totally depends on the overall reception of the game and marketing.
And the point you are missing, is that exactly not being a realistic Zelda, which would just make it like a lot of -almost all- other core games, will be a very strong point of interest for a lot of people. And at least in Japan, toon zeldas sell really good, not the realistic TP. I expect this to be the case in general with Wii demographic as well.
4. And what are the other games to replace Zelda?
You don't play GeoW or Deus Ex or Rhythm Heaven or Zumba if you are starved for Zelda, or if you are a Nintendo gamer, they are really irreplaceable, it is not just another good game. Maybe if instead of shooter parades, games like Last Guardian were actually released -developed at all- then yes. (And Xenoblade in Europe or Epic Mickey and 007 in Japan? how much do you think those games have sold? Low Wii sales in Japan should be enough indication that it is not receiving enough good games at all)
5. I didn't say that it will solely sell another 2m just for this reason or any other reason alone. It may help it to sell more like %5. Together though, as there are many, they may end up selling it %50 more than TP or any other Zelda WW.
6. RS2 is an insignificant game and people weren't interested if it did get it right or wrong, which actually it didn't get how to implement it in a good marketable game and in a meaningful manner anyway.
(In RS2 use of m+ is limited only to the sword , which is only one of the uses of m+ in SS. And from what I played of the game - I played a lot, just got bored and didn't finish it- the use m+ was mostly a cool and visual effect and actual use of position of the sword was limited to that which was implemented in NMH and m+ was maybe in performing techniques. It also didn't sell well for many reasons, one of them being its atrocious predecessor. The same reason why EM2 may not be received as well as EM, if it is ever released)
7. Again, I am not saying it will, but depending on how things turn out, it may get one, and a Wii bundle will help a lot.
And no, Amazon or other lists, unlike what many may say, is very good if you know what you should expect from it and how to read it. And when one revision is ranked at 13 while the other at 90, it just speaks of trends. And in Japan, this trend of limited editions becoming popular can be seen as well, though Chris will have much more data on it.
Orgen said:
I'd say it's relevant to the topic but not the discussion
Still without SMG2, SMG would have not sold more. I mean there was no budget line at the time and it's shelf life was pretty much over. NSMBW cut SMG's remaining legs anyway.
But if you want to drop that line of discussion, we can drop it.
I'm not arguing that SS will be the best seller because I don't enough of the game or the marketing around it to pass judgement on that.Orgen said:
However I'm saying it's a way more likely that it could be the best selling Zelda than it reaching 10Mil.
From what I've seen of the game however I fail to see it reaching OoT personally (or even being better than LA or MM).
The game doesn't even seem the most massive adventure game on Wii so far, everything seems to revolve around puzzles more than anything...Even battle which should be action oriented.
Then again I see stuffs like upgrading tools or other features as genuinely interesting.
Heck the battle from what I played of WSR could be the most awesome thing, to tell how good it can be I can say that I spent a lot of time in the "defeat all foes" part of WSR and that was REALLY awesome...Like "show it to a friend and the friend want his own copy of this".
There's potential.
I don't think however that it is a stretch to say that it should do better than Tp but I've been wrong before.
Now OoT is clearly the goal they should be trying to reach if you ask me.
And I agree 10 Mil is a pipe dream for me.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Cornbread78 said:
wallmart numbers are extrapolated. not provided exactly but still pretty accurately accounted for by NPD
Some very interesting numbers overall, and must say that not sure why but I thought that NSMBW and SMG had done better.
What surprises me more of that list is SSFIV3D at 1M
It's getting pretty close though.Curufinwe said:
What surprises me more of that list is SSFIV3D at 1M
So, here is a question. How much do these games make in terms of dollars?
What does a game like Skyward Sword (Nintendo's most expensive game ever according to an off-handed remark by Miyamoto) have to move in order to be considered a success?
Does Nintendo even care about sales figures? Obviously they do, but you look at the success of things like Wii Fit and wonder if that can fund games like Other M which don't sell all that well. Even still, a poor selling game by Nintendo standards is pretty good compared to the rest of the industry.
But then you have games like Gears 3 which moved 3 million copies in the first week. That's pretty astonishing.
Anyway, does anyone have any insight on development costs vs predicted sales and how that effects future installments in a series?
What does a game like Skyward Sword (Nintendo's most expensive game ever according to an off-handed remark by Miyamoto) have to move in order to be considered a success?
Does Nintendo even care about sales figures? Obviously they do, but you look at the success of things like Wii Fit and wonder if that can fund games like Other M which don't sell all that well. Even still, a poor selling game by Nintendo standards is pretty good compared to the rest of the industry.
But then you have games like Gears 3 which moved 3 million copies in the first week. That's pretty astonishing.
Anyway, does anyone have any insight on development costs vs predicted sales and how that effects future installments in a series?
X05 said:
Those numbers are shipped to retailers, so it doesn't specifically mean the game sold that well in the end. If the number goes up after they update it in the coming years, that would be a good indication that the title sold past its initial shipment (MH Tri for example, shipped another 100k this year).
Everything points to SSFIV 3D being massively overshipped though...
IrishNinja
Member
uh, preemptively sorry for the bump
hey so my 3DS brought an offer to subscribe to NP for $15, and id wanted to support print media & all - just wondering if there's any other promos about first? i recall for years they'd do a free game guide or some other stuff, wanted to see if anyone knew of other deals.
hey so my 3DS brought an offer to subscribe to NP for $15, and id wanted to support print media & all - just wondering if there's any other promos about first? i recall for years they'd do a free game guide or some other stuff, wanted to see if anyone knew of other deals.
Aaron Strife
Banned
but why would you bump this specific thread
also didn't skyward sword sell a million? one more to the list.
walking fiend
Member
I guess what really matters, is that if they can put the money AND human resources they spent on Zelda, on something which will profit more, and not only in short term.
What I mean, is that maybe they aren't capable to put Zelda team into making a game that sells more than this. Also, maybe they damage the Zelda brand and prevent sales of games such as handheld versions as well, and Nintendo brand and fan loyalty too. It may make the team disjointed as well.
However, I am almost sure they most probably haven't spent even near 50m on SS, so it probably is already profitable, but by not much.
all in all, I believe Zelda is still profitable to them in short term measure, e.g. simply comparing the budget and the sales; however, there are probably important long and mid term reasons for doing what they do.
IrishNinja
Member
ahaha, i just saw nintendo power in the title...my bad!
question still applies somehow
Neon_Icarus
Member
People who think SS will outsell Twilight Princess in Japan are crazy. Last time we got numbers, it was at 247.111 units sold, and it's dropped like a rock from the charts since then.
With those kind of legs it's going to be lucky to eventually reach 500.000 over there.
If Nintendo wanted every game of theirs to sell in the millions, they would have stopped making Fire Emblem ages ago. And they never would have bothered with something like Sin & Punishment 2 or Xenoblade. I'd imagine these kind of more niche games are there to get some good will from the gaming press and the core gamers (who are the ones who buy the most software).
Besides, 1.3 million wordwide is from March 2008. I'm pretty sure Prime 3 has sold more after that.
With those kind of legs it's going to be lucky to eventually reach 500.000 over there.
If Nintendo wanted every game of theirs to sell in the millions, they would have stopped making Fire Emblem ages ago. And they never would have bothered with something like Sin & Punishment 2 or Xenoblade. I'd imagine these kind of more niche games are there to get some good will from the gaming press and the core gamers (who are the ones who buy the most software).
Besides, 1.3 million wordwide is from March 2008. I'm pretty sure Prime 3 has sold more after that.
Mihael Mello Keehl
Banned
wow kinda mad I read this thread title like Nintendo Power Reveals All Wii U.....
the fuck.
the fuck.