[thefro]

They don't know that, though. Most 18-29 year olds are driven more by Facebook posts than candidate's actual positions.

Small sample size. NBC poll about a week ago had Obama up 32 among 18-34.

[speculawyer]

Obama leads Romney by 2 in Arizona!

Wow. Romney is doomed if he can't win there. I suspect that the way they have been treated by the GOP in their state, almost every Latino in AZ will vote for Obama.

[Invisible_Insane]

Exactly. A Romney presidency could just mean a possible chance at a better economy for them. The last four years certainly haven't worked well for them

It needs to be pointed out that there is a substantial difference between your initial claim (young people have no reason to vote) and the one you're endorsing in the quoted post above (young people are largely ignorant and susceptible to myriad forms of deception). The latter issue is what the campaign is for--and if we're merely to view it as a contest of marketing, I'd be a lot less bullish on Romney then you are.

[Aaron Strife]

I can't find it right now, but there was an article in Time last month about a massive voter registration drive that flipped a local election to democrats thanks to Latino votes. National dems have acquired the guy responsible for the voter registration drive, and are heavily investing in trying to replicate that success in November. I just wonder if democrats are also ensuring people have IDs this time, just in case.

Democrats in Nevada also took a strategy in 2010 of running strong, personable Latino candidates for State Senate to ramp up turnout. Not only did it save Harry Reid's hide but it also kept the state legislature blue, albeit narrowly.

While a state like Texas isn't likely to turn blue anytime soon, Democrats could make strong inroads in the state legislatures/Congressional districts by pursuing a similar strategy there. Hispanic non-voters are somewhat of a sleeping giant.

[markatisu]

Exactly. A Romney presidency could just mean a possible chance at a better economy for them. The last four years certainly haven't worked well for them

They would vote for Ron Paul before they vote for Romney. Either way Romney still gets screwed.

Young voters just pad Obama's win, Minority voters and Women in this cycle are the ones to deliver the death blow

[Vahagn]

People seem to not realize exactly how boring and unrelateable Mitt is. He has the same problem that Dukakis or Kerry or Dole had.


Once we get into the real political season, and there are debates, and stump speeches, his blandness and generally self-serving policies will turn away young voters.

Boring candidates don't inspire the youth to get off their lazy ass and vote, and despite what right wingers might believe, most Americans don't hate Obama. In fact, by and large, more Americans like Obama then they do Romney.


With such a boring, uninspiring, candidate as Romney, the only way he'll be able to win the youth vote for the more charismatic Obama would be if Obama was flat out hated, but outside of the extreme right, that's not the case.


It's a pipe dream, all Mitt might be able to do is get a few young voters to kind of feel apathetic enough not to vote for Obama, but he won't actually get their votes.

[speculawyer]

Exactly. A Romney presidency could just mean a possible chance at a better economy for them. The last four years certainly haven't worked well for them

OK . . . but what is Romney's magic plan to make the economy happy? Basically, just doing more of what Bush did. Now that certainly will resonate with the standard 30% of the population. But can Romney convince enough people that the Bush economic policies were doing just fine? Good luck with that Romney.

It might work . . . people are not that bright. People do tend to just vote people out blindly if they don't like things the way they are now. But is that just out of the frying pan and into the fire?

[Brinbe]

Wow, even making AZ legitimately competitive is huge. Just opens up more paths to 270 for Bams.

[Flying_Phoenix]

Maybe some Arizonians are starting to realize how fucking insane their state has become and are starting to turn over a new leaf?

[TacticalFox88]

Wow, even making AZ legitimately competitive is huge. Just opens up more paths to 270 for Bams.

If this trend holds (which outside of a series of unforunate events it pretty much will), then Romney is about to get roflstomped in the GE. Add to the fact that most of the GOP doesn't even like him and only will stand by him just get Obama out of office...well...lol.

[Tim-E]

Wow, even making AZ legitimately competitive is huge. Just opens up more paths to 270 for Bams.

Romney even having to defend Arizona at all this cycle would be a huge victory for democrats.

They would vote for Ron Paul before they vote for Romney. Either way Romney still gets screwed. Young voters just pad Obama's win, Minority voters and Women in this cycle are the ones to deliver the death blow

Yep. The youth vote alone didn't give Obama a nearly 200+ EV win in 08. Him doing well with women and minorities were pretty much what sealed the deal and it's going to be the same this time around. With Republicans still fighting things like the Violence Against Women Act even today, those numbers are going to stay pretty solid.

[Measley]

The bigger issue here is how Romney is going to do with evangelicals and hard right conservatives.

Romney hasn't done well in the South and the Bible Belt. The main stronghold of conservative politics.

If this trend holds (which outside of a series of unforunate events it pretty much will), then Romney is about to get roflstomped in the GE. Add to the fact that most of the GOP doesn't even like him and only will stand by him just get Obama out of office...well...lol.

If that happens, the GOP will only get more insane in 2014 and 2016.

[Gruco]

Well I mean sure, now it looks like there might have been consequences for Romney tacking hard right on immigration and offering to destroy planned parenthood during the primary, but once he tells voters that he was just kidding, it's a whole new ballgame!

[Measley]

Well I mean sure, now it looks like there might have been consequences for Romney tacking hard right on immigration and offering to destroy planned parenthood during the primary, but once he tells voters that he was just kidding, it's a whole new ballgame!

Problem is if Romney starts moving back towards the center, he's going to alienate the hard-right (and more energized) portion of his base.

[eBay Huckster]

Problem is if Romney starts moving back towards the center, he's going to alienate the hard-right (and more energized) portion of his base.

And if he doesn't start moving back toward the center he's going to set in stone the alienation of, well, everyone else.

What a candidate!

[Aaron Strife]

The bigger issue here is how Romney is going to do with evangelicals and hard right conservatives. Romney hasn't done well in the South and the Bible Belt. The main stronghold of conservative politics. If that happens, the GOP will only get more insane in 2014 and 2016.

Oh, they'll still vote for Romney. Anti-Obama fervor is high enough that they'll be mobilized on that alone. But it's going to be a tough balancing act for Team Romney to turn out those conservative voters while winning over independents.

I think Arizona represents not just Hispanic growth, but also an exodus of centrist/moderate voters to the Democratic Party. To a lot of non-partisans, the Republican Party is the party of fiscal responsibility and family values, which sounds good on paper until they get elected and start dismantling the Department of Education or something.

From what I can tell, there's a divide between local Republicans in Arizona of the old guard establishment and the tea-flavored crazies, and the latter has overtaken the former. Jan Brewer has done blunders for the party's image. In any year that wasn't 2010, she would have lost hard.

[Invisible_Insane]

Problem is if Romney starts moving back towards the center, he's going to alienate the hard-right (and more energized) portion of his base.

I think the hard right's distate for Obama will prove sufficiently motivating even as Romney shifts leftward. Where else are the going to go?

And how delicious is it to be saying that about conservatives for once?

[Black Republican]

Wow, even making AZ legitimately competitive is huge. Just opens up more paths to 270 for Bams.

theres still a high undecided %, but if they swing left then ....well you might as well call the election for Obama

[Vahagn]

I think the hard right's distate for Obama will prove sufficiently motivating even as Romney shifts leftward. Where else are the going to go? And how delicious is it to be saying that about conservatives for once?

Yup

I voted for Kerry, not because I liked him, but because I hated Bush.

[PhoenixPause]

Problem is if Romney starts moving back towards the center, he's going to alienate the hard-right (and more energized) portion of his base.

What are they going to do, vote for Obama? This happens in every election cycle. There will be disappointment but overall republicans are more concerned with winning the WH and senate - if they do that, they get the re-write the direction of the country. As Grover Norquist said, they don't need a great coach, just someone to call the plays.

[RustyNails]

Exactly. A Romney presidency could just mean a possible chance at a better economy for them. The last four years certainly haven't worked well for them

I want you to expound on this barf post. Go.

As Grover Norquist said, they don't need a great coach, just someone to call the plays.

Grover Norquist also said he wants to shrink the government to the size where we can drown it in bath tub.

[Tim-E]

The anti-Obama sentiment is very strong among Republicans and it will get them out, but that alone can't win them the election. The left HATED Bush in 04. Fahrenheit 9/11 grossed over $200 million dollars and the hate for him was very vocal, yet it didn't win them the election because Kerry had the charisma of a wet paper bag.

[AlteredBeast]

I want you to expound on this barf post. Go.

He isn't speaking about reality, just what young voters might perceive as such. Four years ago, this guy promised me hope and change and I am still busting my ass 40 hours a week for 7 bucks/hr or am currently unemployed. Maybe this rich guy can help me.

Etc.

[PhoenixPause]

He isn't speaking about reality, just what young voters might perceive as such. Four years ago, this guy promised me hope and change and I am still busting my ass 40 hours a week for 7 bucks/hr or am currently unemployed. Maybe this rich guy can help me. Etc.

Exactly. They've tried Obama for four years, it didn't work at all. So it's not ridiculous to think many young people will either stay home, and some will vote for Romney out of desperation.

We can focus on GDP all we want but at the end of the day UE is ridiculously high among young people and minorities. People are hurting, bad. It's not ridiculous to suggest they'll give Romney a chance

[RustyNails]

He isn't speaking about reality, just what young voters might perceive as such. Four years ago, this guy promised me hope and change and I am still busting my ass 40 hours a week for 7 bucks/hr or am currently unemployed. Maybe this rich guy can help me. Etc.

First off, college grads who have been unemployed since Obama took office have serious problems.

Secondly, people are not going to go "I'm still busting my ass off today". They are gonna go, "I'm still busting my ass off today, but at least it's better than being unemployed". Same with every other voting group. "I'm busting my ass off, but I'm better off than 3.5 years ago when I had nothing going."

[PhoenixPause]

First off, college grads who have been unemployed since Obama took office have serious problems. Secondly, people are not going to go "I'm still busting my ass off today". They are gonna go, "I'm still busting my ass off today, but at least it's better than being unemployed". Same with every other voting group. "I'm busting my ass off, but I'm better off than 3.5 years ago when I had nothing going."

I'd imagine more people are saying "I wish I was busting my ass off. I had a job 3.5 years ago, now no one is hiring."

[Miletius]

http://www.facebook.com/BeingAmericanByGO This is a prime example. Over 1.5 million likes. Seems like it's just a regular page about "Being American" right? Nope. Read the posts it actually puts up. It's right wing propaganda at it's finest. And the scary part it's not the ONLY one. It's about as subtle as a trainwreck to any of us, but to teens who don't follow politics....well...:(

It mostly true though. It's not like they are publishing outright lies or misinformation. The situation is worse for young folks than it has been for a long time. It's a combination of the economy, rising standards for jobs that shouldn't require it, and the baby boomer generation putting off retirement.

You wouldn't believe how many times I've heard the phrase "it'll get better once the boomers start retiring" in reference to job prospects. Edit: Not in reference to myself, I work in the education sector and that's one thing that gets a lot of discussion.

[RustyNails]

Exactly. They've tried Obama for four years, it didn't work at all. So it's not ridiculous to think many young people will either stay home, and some will vote for Romney out of desperation.

JimCarreyTrumanShowWTF.gif?



It didn't work at all?

[RustyNails]

I'd imagine more people are saying "I wish I was busting my ass off. I had a job 3.5 years ago, now no one is hiring."

See my post above

[speculawyer]

People seem to not realize exactly how boring and unrelateable Mitt is. He has the same problem that Dukakis or Kerry or Dole had.

yet it didn't win them the election because Kerry had the charisma of a wet paper bag.

Yeah, as a wonk it is annoying to admit to it but the general charisma of a candidate plays a far bigger role than we would like to admit. Dukakis, Dole, Gore, and Kerry all had very little Charisma. Reagan, Clinton, W Bush, and Obama all had it. For those low-information voters in the middle that could go either way, this is probably a much bigger factor than we would like to admit. :-/


Romney is good looking . . . . but he is pretty stiff. The favorable/unfavorable ratings of him are crap for him compared to Obama.

Broken record: It keeps looking like Obama wins unless there is some big event to change things (economic collapse, war, scandal, etc.).

[PhoenixPause]

JimCarreyTrumanShowWTF.gif? It didn't work at all?

So all the rates were better under Bush, and Romney is proposing going back to Bush policies. Seems like a great strategy for Romney to me.

[reilo]

So all the rates were better under Bush, and Romney is proposing going back to Bush policies. Seems like a great strategy for Romney to me.

Can you stop your shitty trolling already?

[Suikoguy]

theres still a high undecided %, but if they swing left then ....well you might as well call the election for Obama

The fact there are so many undecided is surprising to me.

[Zzoram]

The bigger issue here is how Romney is going to do with evangelicals and hard right conservatives. Romney hasn't done well in the South and the Bible Belt. The main stronghold of conservative politics. If that happens, the GOP will only get more insane in 2014 and 2016.

He's going to make a Tea Party favorite his VP.

[Allard]

Yeah, as a wonk it is annoying to admit to it but the general charisma of a candidate plays a far bigger role than we would like to admit. Dukakis, Dole, Gore, and Kerry all had very little Charisma. Reagan, Clinton, W Bush, and Obama all had it. For those low-information voters in the middle that could go either way, this is probably a much bigger factor than we would like to admit. :-/ Romney is good looking . . . . but he is pretty stiff. The favorable/unfavorable ratings of him are crap for him compared to Obama. Broken record: It keeps looking like Obama wins unless there is some big event to change things (economic collapse, war, scandal, etc.).

I don't know if you need Charisma, but you need more then your opponent. Unless a drastic event happens on the eve of the election cycle the incumbent rarely loses to himself, he has to lose to someone that is perceived better then him. As someone from personal experience I 'wanted' to vote for Kerry (My birthday to turn 18 was 3 days AFTER the election so I couldn't ><) but only because I didn't like Bush, but that's the thing, I already decided I would vote for anyone other then Bush, that isn't a platform to win over undecideds and it will never work unless he is so deeply hated that most the electorate would rather vote Satan in then current person. If the person is uninteresting or doesn't put out an image of actual change from the status quo, the incumbent will almost always win. The same issue is happening with Romney and it will something he will never shake off. His only 'shot' is beating Obama in debates and coming off as confident and electable, something he has yet to show in the debates thus far.

[Invisible_Insane]

So all the rates were better under Bush, and Romney is proposing going back to Bush policies. Seems like a great strategy for Romney to me.

You think reversion to Bush economic policy is a winner for Romney? Seriously? I can't find more recent polling on the question, but you cannot credibly make that claim.

[Tim-E]

He's going to make a Tea Party favorite his VP.

Those voters will hold their noses and vote for him anyway. If he picks a Tea Party loon, it's going to scare off a lot of independents, who he absolutely needs.

[RustyNails]

...His only 'shot' is beating Obama in debates and coming off as confident and electable, something he has yet to show in the debates thus far.

Besides, the GE debates usually solidify the notions you already have about candidates. Unless Obama finally comes out and says he's a Kenyan Muslim during a debate, people will continue to favor him over Romney. You really don't pick up any polling points from GE debates. No candidate bets on it and it's foolish to bank on it. Romney's only shot at beating Obama is an external factor, nothing more. Not even SC striking down health care mandate.

[mckmas8808]

Obama leads Romney by 2 in Arizona!

WOW! It's early though.

[Black Mamba]

So all the rates were better under Bush, and Romney is proposing going back to Bush policies. Seems like a great strategy for Romney to me.

Do you want me to chart the trend under Clinton vs under Bush?

It won't be pretty.


It was "better" under Bush because things kept getting worse under Bush until everything blew up in '08 when he left.

Bush's policies from '01 to '09 led to larger deficits, 2 wars, and economic turmoil and more income inequality than when he came in...

[Hitokage]

Obama leads Romney by 2 in Arizona!

So Moxie takes four years to take effect, huh.

[Officerrob]

So all the rates were better under Bush, and Romney is proposing going back to Bush policies. Seems like a great strategy for Romney to me.

Your trolling just jumped the shark

[Aaron Strife]

So Moxie takes four years to take effect, huh.

Romney should pick Giovanni as his VP pick to lock up the Italian vote.

New "Purple Poll" (12 lean/toss-up states) http://www.scribd.com/TheHillNewspap...lPurplePoll-v9

Obama leads 48-44. Up by 5 in Ohio, 2 in Virginia, tied in Colorado (weird), down 2 in Florida.

[Dr. Pangloss]

Why are we assuming young people are one issue voters? I'm sure they will support the party against gay rights, contraception, and fixing inequality. Romney might get them jobs, but those jobs could be worthless like the ones Perry touted in Texas.

[MrPliskin]

Someone on a friends facebook just link'd me to this article, and I'm floored (though I shouldn't be) at how intentionally misconstrued these laws are interpreted for the purpose of right-wing propaganda! Man, crazy stuff.

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Hollywo...e-Violated-Law

[KingK]

Romney should pick Giovanni as his VP pick to lock up the Italian vote. New "Purple Poll" (12 lean/toss-up states) http://www.scribd.com/TheHillNewspap...lPurplePoll-v9 Obama leads 48-44. Up by 5 in Ohio, 2 in Virginia, tied in Colorado (weird), down 2 in Florida.

That is weird to be tied in Colorado right now, but I wouldn't worry about that state for Obama. It seems to be pretty solidly blue now, plus they're having the initiative to legalize marijuana this year, right? I would assume that would get the youth vote out in droves and help boost Obama even more there.

[Flying_Phoenix]

If that happens, the GOP will only get more insane in 2014 and 2016.

I believe the opposite will happen. I think they'll most likely calm down and realize they have to let some of their radical issues go in order for their wing to remain competitive.

[Wray]

Compare 2004 to 2008. That's what depressed youth turn out does: lose swing states by thin margins. There is next to no reason for young people to vote in droves this year given their dire economic situation.

An important thing you are overlooking is that in 2004 the "Youth Vote" demographic was much much smaller than it is today, as that was predominately Gen X. Today that age group is Gen Y which is a much much bigger pool.

In short, there a fuck ton more people in their 20's today than there were 10 years ago.

http://unlockthemysteries.com/factsgenxy.aspx

[gutter_trash]

That is weird to be tied in Colorado right now, but I wouldn't worry about that state for Obama. It seems to be pretty solidly blue now, plus they're having the initiative to legalize marijuana this year, right? I would assume that would get the youth vote out in droves and help boost Obama even more there.

never count on the youth vote to actually vote

[SouthernDragon]

So all the rates were better under Bush, and Romney is proposing going back to Bush policies. Seems like a great strategy for Romney to me.

Dude, I appreciate your shtick, but this is pretty stupid.