[Fabrik]

I wonder what's up with Paper Mario. Since it was first shown at E3 2010 IS released two new Fire Emblem games -- but Paper Mario is still nowhere to be seen. Is the team working on it so small? Was the production slowed down in favor of FE? Is Nintendo purposely holding it back? Has it been moved to the Wii U? Or is it just the kind of game that takes 3 years of development time?

I have a feeling Paper Mario is almost finished and Nintendo is saving it. It looked playable at its unveiling.

PS: Lol new page again.

[electroplankton]

I have a feeling Paper Mario is almost finished and Nintendo is saving it. It looked playable at its unveiling. PS: Lol new page again.

Yeah.
Now Nintendo has Kid Icarus and Mario Tennis to promote (and Fire Emblem in Japan).

[Father_Brain]

Did we get an end of year total for the wii game?

It's at the first link in my post. Around 25K at last count.

[Gianni Merryman]

I wouldnt consider the whole ip is doomed but its quite plausable its popularity could've taken a serious haircut

Yes, it could be reasonably up to debate whether Square-Enix in recent years has mismanaged its most valuable assets - I understand also FF has been recently facing a steep decline - but that's another issue and still I wouldn't dismiss their mainstream IPs' potential.

[Chunky]

It's at the first link in my post. Around 25K at last count.

Makes you wonder why Konami even bothered.
I mean, I love the original, but is something that's only sold 25k ever had a successful sequel?
Also, a question for those who might know, was Cinq's input to the first game ever made known? And obviously now they've regrettably left us, what's the effect on the new one been?

[test_account]

ouch, no wonder developers are lining up for the Vita

I find it somewhat surprising that they remade this game seeing how little the Wii version sold. I dont think that the sales expectations were very high for the Vita version.

[Datschge]

I have a feeling Paper Mario is almost finished and Nintendo is saving it. It looked playable at its unveiling.

Right, no need to have multiple Mario titles fighting for the limelight at once. Mario Tennis comes first likely because it's easier to stall/temporally pause internal developments than it is with 3rd parties.

[Chris1964]

ouch, no wonder developers are lining up for the Vita

Sales of a port of a bad selling Wii game aren't those that will determine future support of Vita.

[AniHawk]

Sales of a port of a bad selling Wii game aren't those that will determine future support of Vita.

monster hunter portable 3g hd portable will.

[Andrex]

It opened a bit better than the Wii game, at least, so perhaps Konami's offensively pandering adoption of a generic anime art style actually did accomplish something.

wtfisthis @ the second link

[Cygnus X-1]

get6-2 blog is updated in favor of Fire Emblem: First day sales could be close to 200k with many sellouts. Nintendo is rumored to have printed 30k bundles for online buy. Total first week shipment for software will be bigger that 300k. Code of Princess shipment is about 30k, with better than expected sellthrough.

Fantastic. Thanks to a game of great quality and a great marketing push, the series will be able to become as important as it was on SNES once again.

[lunchwithyuzo]

So, Fire Emblem a bigger brand than Kingdom Hearts at the moment? :P

Possibly bigger than Super Robot Taisen too. I'd love to see Fire Emblem retake it's crown as Japan's biggest SRPG.

[Busaiku]

This is why Nintendo pandered to the otaku.

[MasterSheen]

get6-2 blog is updated in favor of Fire Emblem: First day sales could be close to 200k with many sellouts. Nintendo is rumored to have printed 30k bundles for online buy. Total first week shipment for software will be bigger that 300k. Code of Princess shipment is about 30k, with better than expected sellthrough.

Excellent.

[LOCK]

get6-2 blog is updated in favor of Fire Emblem: First day sales could be close to 200k with many sellouts. Nintendo is rumored to have printed 30k bundles for online buy. Total first week shipment for software will be bigger that 300k. Code of Princess shipment is about 30k, with better than expected sellthrough.

:) on both accounts!

So, Fire Emblem a bigger brand than Kingdom Hearts at the moment? :P

This is really shocking and awe-inspiring at the same time.

[Count Dookkake]

These threads are always more exciting following a soft Sony launch.

[Mpl90]

Well, it's not an exact 1:1 comparison, but why not compare DS in the pre-Wii launch period versus 3DS in the pre Wii U launch period? DS First 14 months (Dec 2004 - end of Jan 2006): 30 titles, counting Nintendogs as 1 as with the 3DS list you just quoted Assume a September 2012 release date for Wii U (5 months from now), DS from June 2006 (5 months before Wii) going back 14 months: 33 titles So, again, not exactly 1:1, but either Nintendo would like to produce more 3DS software but is very poorly equipped to handle the additional manpower needed for Wii U games, which bodes very poorly for a number of things in the future, OR the lower amount of 3DS software reflects an intentional shift... perhaps to fewer SKUs so each can be more successful, perhaps to give 3rd parties room to breathe, perhaps because digital software is taking up teams or attention, perhaps external partners have moved on. Someone else can take the ball and run from here, I don't intend on doing any further analysis.

I think 3DS could reflect a kind of new policy from Nintendo: they're not releasing a big amount of games, big, medium and little...and very little ones, but just a good amount of software with a good or great value in terms of brand recognition / hype ( so, also possibly new IP with a good commercial push) and a very limited amount of little games. And then, DD for other games which, in the past, would have sold in stores.

This is the other main difference between DS first months and 3DS ones: there's another channel besides retail for some titles, and they're using it. Pullblox, Rolling Western, even Potzol's Puzzle...they're packed with content and they show the effort behind the development, and last gen we coulx have seen them perfectly at 30 Dollars on shelves, but now they're downloadable titles.

So, more focus on "important titles" on retail and another way to sell other kinds of proposals. Obviously, Wii U incoming and the need to make 3rd party influence the first party policy, but IMHO they're not the causes of this new way of developing by Nintendo.

[Instro]

So this should end up being the biggest opening for a Fire Emblem game then correct?

[Road]

If there's only one big release, I'm fine with that, personally. :) What about doing monthly software prediction results? That would be much easier to avoid sub-50K titles that way. Results would be like 6 weeks after the predictions closed, though, so that would be a drawback.

It's an idea. The problem would be where would we get the results? There are no reliable MC monthly sales; the Famitsu top 20 seems like it's gonna stop any minute, not to mention it's released almost one month later; so the only reliable source is the Famitsu top 10.

I like it, though, because it would make the predictions much harder.


For now, we're going with:


Prediction league: Apr 23 to 29

- Deadline is until the 4Gamer MC Top 20 is posted (11AM EST Wednesday)
- Any entry missing in the MC Top 20 will be taken out of the predictions.

[PS3] Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City -
[WII] Mario Party 9 -
[360] Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City -
[PSP] Steins;Gate: Hiyoku Renri no Darling -
[3DS] Dynasty Warriors Vs. -
[PSV] Ciel Nosurge -


One game for each system.

[donny2112]

The problem would be where would we get the results? There are no reliable MC monthly sales; the Famitsu top 20 seems like it's gonna stop any minute, not to mention it's released almost one month later; so the only reliable source is the Famitsu top 10.

There's also the Gemaga Nintendo Monthly Top 20 for MC, but that's just Nintendo games. Maybe go with last known Top 20 LTD? With the weekly MC sales lately, past the Top 20 isn't selling much, anyways.

Prediction league: Apr 23 to 29

[PS3] Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City - 75K
[WII] Mario Party 9 - 185K
[360] Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City - 10K
[PSP] Steins;Gate: Hiyoku Renri no Darling - 95K
[3DS] Dynasty Warriors Vs. - 50K
[PSV] Ciel Nosurge - 10K

[JJConrad]

Well, it's not an exact 1:1 comparison, but why not compare DS in the pre-Wii launch period versus 3DS in the pre Wii U launch period? DS First 14 months (Dec 2004 - end of Jan 2006): 30 titles, counting Nintendogs as 1 as with the 3DS list you just quoted Assume a September 2012 release date for Wii U (5 months from now), DS from June 2006 (5 months before Wii) going back 14 months: 33 titles So, again, not exactly 1:1, but either Nintendo would like to produce more 3DS software but is very poorly equipped to handle the additional manpower needed for Wii U games, which bodes very poorly for a number of things in the future, OR the lower amount of 3DS software reflects an intentional shift... perhaps to fewer SKUs so each can be more successful, perhaps to give 3rd parties room to breathe, perhaps because digital software is taking up teams or attention, perhaps external partners have moved on. Someone else can take the ball and run from here, I don't intend on doing any further analysis.

I think the biggest factor in their output is Nintendo's stance on the hardware.

The DS was an experiment that even they weren't fully committed to at the time. So the first year had a ton experimental, low investment games (like Brain Age) plus several more that were GBA games with touch controls tacked on (like Polarium) and others that probably would have never seen the light of day at retail had Nintendo not been just seeing what sticks (like Electroplankton). Compare that with the 3DS, which is the clear successor, there has been a clear transition with relatively few projects shared between platforms (although The Pokemon Co. hasn't received that memo).

I've counted 38 unique titles released between the GBA and DS in the time period used, compared to 33 DS, 3DS, and digital titles in their relatively same period. There is a difference in output, but I don't think its a significant enough difference to be concerned.

[donny2112]

With New Super Mario Bros. 2 for 3DS in August, I have to imagine that New Super Mario Bros. DS will continue to sell for those wanting more or to revisit the original. Maybe Super Mario Bros. 6.8m isn't so out of reach, after all, from NSMB 6.3m ...

[LOCK]

So Animal Crossing, Luigi's Mansion, and Paper Mario for the fall?

[Dalthien]

With New Super Mario Bros. 2 for 3DS in August, I have to imagine that New Super Mario Bros. DS will continue to sell for those wanting more or to revisit the original. Maybe Super Mario Bros. 6.8m isn't so out of reach, after all, from NSMB 6.3m ...

Man, wouldn't that be something.


Anyway, B/W2 and NSMB2 back-to-back within 2 months of each other in the summer is INSANE! I would have bet cold hard cash that NSMB2 would have been late Nov/early Dec.

Putting it in August seems to strongly imply that NSMBMii is coming this holiday for WiiU, and they didn't want both NSMB titles releasing at the same time.

[Chris1964]

Putting it in August seems to strongly imply that NSMBMii is coming this holiday for WiiU, and they didn't want both NSMB titles releasing at the same time.

What I got is that they try to find ways making 3DS more attractive to western markets. It needs an instant system seller as soon as possible. This game could easily be a December release with Animal Crossing at summer.

Btw I have a bad feeling for Luigi's Mansion 2 development progress.

[Zeer0id]

3DS is going to be relentless over the next few months in JPN. Crazy amount of software coming up that in all likelihood should be quite successful.

[botty]

Luigi's Mansion 2 has to be the title that launches around the revision. Everyone who has played it says it needs the 2nd circle pad...

[BurntPork]

Am I the only one who thinks that the new Pokemon apps could cause B2/W2 to be a 3DS system seller to a degree? If I'm right and we're looking at NSMB2 just a few months later, Nintendo's gonna have trouble keeping 3DS's on shelves this summer...

[bgassassin]

Luigi's Mansion 2 has to be the title that launches around the revision. Everyone who has played it says it needs the 2nd circle pad...

I wouldn't expect a revision until the hardware is profitable. And considering that could be as late as October, that more than likely wouldn't happen till next year IF it gets that kind of revision at all.

[botty]

I wouldn't expect a revision until the hardware is profitable. And considering that could be as late as October, that more than likely wouldn't happen till next year IF it gets that kind of revision at all.

Well Kid Icarus: Uprising was released almost 2 years after it's reveal, and it came with a stand. Next year would be "almost" 2 years since LM2 was revealed and that sorta fits into your logic.

[udivision]

Am I the only one who thinks that the new Pokemon apps could cause B2/W2 to be a 3DS system seller to a degree? If I'm right and we're looking at NSMB2 just a few months later, Nintendo's gonna have trouble keeping 3DS's on shelves this summer...

They need to beat consumers over the head with the fact that they can catch Pokemon in the app and transfer them to b2w2 which can only be done on the 3ds. Better yet, pull some dream world-esque BS and give those guys special moves or natures.

[Mpl90]

NSMB2 in August shocks me. A lot. It's so soon.

About Luigi's Mansion, at this point...October, near Halloween to impact more. But I'm wondering now what there should be for Christmas, especially in the West, since Mario comes out much earlier.

I mean, Paper Mario will probably be this year, like FE ( at least in Europe )...but they need something else massive. Maybe, DKC 3DS is a possibility now, since there's no Mario for November / December. But still, they should have another big sales game...what could it realistically be?

[axisofweevils]

NSMB2 in August shocks me. A lot. It's so soon. About Luigi's Mansion, at this point...October, near Halloween to impact more. But I'm wondering now what there should be for Christmas, especially in the West, since Mario comes out much earlier. I mean, Paper Mario will probably be this year, like FE ( at least in Europe )...but they need something else massive. Maybe, DKC 3DS is a possibility now, since there's no Mario for November / December. But still, they should have another big sales game...what could it realistically be?

New 3DS top-down Zelda (Link To The Past sequel?)

[BorkBork]

NSMB2 - August
Luigi's Mansion 2 - October
Paper Mario - November
Animal Crossing - December

Scatter Monster Hunter (Nintendo published?), Fire Emblem throughout, and I think that's the schedule they're going with. Pretty solid 1st party lineup going into the holidays, considering their priority will be on the Wii U launch.

[Lord_Byron28]

What I got is that they try to find ways making 3DS more attractive to western markets. It needs an instant system seller as soon as possible. This game could easily be a December release with Animal Crossing at summer. Btw I have a bad feeling for Luigi's Mansion 2 development progress.

Agreed on the NSMB date being pushed up. Although it probably was also pushed up to avoid confusion with Wii U's Mario game in addition to needing stronger sales from the west.

Yeah, Luigi's Mansion 2 probably got the tea table upended. That or they are witholding Luigi's Mansion 2 and Paper Mario because they will get lost in between NSMB2 and Mario Tennis not too mention SM3DL and MK7 are still selling really well and there's a supposed Mario game with Wii U being released by the end of the year.

What I'm more curious about is what that means for the 3DS' big holiday title. I guess there's Animal Crossing but I'd think there'd be more. I suppose that's E3's big 3DS reveal.

[GCX]

NSMB2 - August Luigi's Mansion 2 - October Paper Mario - November Animal Crossing - December Scatter Monster Hunter (Nintendo published?), Fire Emblem throughout, and I think that's the schedule they're going with. Pretty solid 1st party lineup going into the holidays, considering their priority will be on the Wii U launch.

I think there's a possibility for some big holiday game announcement at E3, something with international appeal. There's so much to translate in Animal Crossing that it might not make it to Europe in 2012.

Also Demon Training is a real wild card.

[botty]

NSMB2 in August shocks me. A lot. It's so soon. About Luigi's Mansion, at this point...October, near Halloween to impact more. But I'm wondering now what there should be for Christmas, especially in the West, since Mario comes out much earlier. I mean, Paper Mario will probably be this year, like FE ( at least in Europe )...but they need something else massive. Maybe, DKC 3DS is a possibility now, since there's no Mario for November / December. But still, they should have another big sales game...what could it realistically be?

Fall is going to be Wii U centric. I think Nintendo wants to annihilate the Vita now so that they can worry about Wii U later. NSMB 2 is likely to resurge during the holidays, and a DKC 3DS is a great companion title to sell along with it.

New 3DS top-down Zelda (Link To The Past sequel?)

Do want ;)

And I love how your avatar keeps changing colors/styles.

[Chris1964]

Demon Training - Summer
Calciobit
Paper Mario
Style Savvy
Luigi's Mansion 2
Animal Crossing - Fall

6 titles for 4 months, maybe 5 if they release something in July, without counting any other surprise for this year. I see at least one pushing back.

[Mpl90]

Demon Training - Summer Calciobit Paper Mario Style Savvy Luigi's Mansion 2 Animal Crossing - Fall 6 titles for 4 months, maybe 5 if they release something in July, without counting any other surprise for this year. I see at least one pushing back.

Mmmh, they said they want to release software attracting mass audience, so Style Savvy should be 2012 with no problem. I fear one between Luigi e Paper Mario will be 2013. Probably Paper Mario.

[Yeshua]

[PS3] Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City - 120.000
[WII] Mario Party 9 - 250.000
[360] Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City - 10.000
[PSP] Steins;Gate: Hiyoku Renri no Darling - 20.000
[3DS] Dynasty Warriors Vs. - 40.000
[PSV] Ciel Nosurge - 10.000

[electroplankton]

[PS3] Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City - 135.000
[WII] Mario Party 9 - 145.000
[360] Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City - 11.000
[PSP] Steins;Gate: Hiyoku Renri no Darling - 25.000
[3DS] Dynasty Warriors Vs. - 35.000
[PSV] Ciel Nosurge - 15.000

[Salvadora]

[PS3]Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City - 50K
[WII] Mario Party 9- 150K
[360] Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City - 9K
[PSP]Steins;Gate: Hiyoku Renri no Darling - 80K
[3DS]Dynasty Warriors Vs. - 60K
[PSV] Ciel Nosurge - 5K

[Green Slime]

[PS3] Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City - 90.000
[WII] Mario Party 9 - 125.000
[360] Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City - 12.000
[PSP] Steins;Gate: Hiyoku Renri no Darling - 20.000
[3DS] Dynasty Warriors Vs. - 45.000
[PSV] Ciel Nosurge - 10.000

[Gianni Merryman]

[PS3] Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City - 70.000
[WII] Mario Party 9 - 170.000
[360] Resident Evil: Operation Raccoon City - 4.000
[PSP] Steins;Gate: Hiyoku Renri no Darling - 20.000
[3DS] Dynasty Warriors Vs. - 32.000
[PSV] Ciel Nosurge - 7.000

[BishopLamont]

NSMB2 is a pure move for the west, but I really doubt Animal Crossing would be the only holiday title, a traditional top down 2D Zelda would be the best companion to it, and its about time Nintendo tried to revive Zelda to its golden years. Just the thought of it is so crazy to any Zelda fan.

AC, Zelda, MH for holiday. The new golden trio.

[sphinx]

is it realistic to think capcom could release MH4 in Japan in Nov or Dec? It seems like nintendo is securing the field so that nothing gets nucked (aka, ignored by everyone) once that bomb drops.

[Rock_Man]

DS vs 3DS hardware sales, launch aligned (Famitsu)



After 60 weeks, DS was just through its super holiday and are now higher than 3DS again (by just 44k). From now on we have 6 weeks of severe shortages for DS, averaging 47k weekly sales so 3DS will take the lead again soon. After that DS has 40 weeks of extremely high sales averaging 168k weekly sales and that doesn't include the Dec 2006 weeks. I wonder how much behind 3DS will be at that point. 3DS have a Dec month and NSMB2 in this period.

[electroplankton]

If the 30k FE bundle will be in the next hardware numbers, then I'm expected 3DS over 100k this week.

[JoshuaJSlone]

NSMB, Pokémon, Animal Crossing, Brain Age... it's a good year for followups to quintuple (EDIT: or better) platinum DS games.

[Salvadora]

NSMB, Pokémon, Animal Crossing, Brain Age... it's a good year for followups to quintuple platinum DS games.

Yeah it makes me wonder what Nintendo will have for next year, Considering attention will probably be focused on the WiiU.