[Perfo]

I'm very concerned about the health of this series after the release of DQX, which I don't expect to be that huge of a hit. I mean... I don't really get what driven S-E to shift "genre" when the games of before have been really successful without going into a full-online type of game. "Another" traditional offline Dragon Quest would've been surely a success, so this is insane to me.

The only good news of this is that... if Dragon Quest is out before christmas, Square Enix has something else big enough to release during this year. It's Versus time folks!

[Bento]

I'm very concerned about the health of this series after the release of DQX, which I don't expect to be that huge of a hit. I mean... I don't really get what driven S-E to shift "genre" when the games of before have been really successful without going into a full-online type of game. "Another" traditional offline Dragon Quest would've been surely a success, so this is insane to me.

Because FFXI made them a ton of money for a long period of time (and still does) and they want to recreate that success.

[Night_Trekker]

I'm torn between loving the bitter tears over the choice of console and hating the MMO slant. They'd better not be lying about the single player mode being substantial. At least as substantial as 9 or no buy.

Or, make it free to play online in the US. Then maybe I'll think about it.

[Sho_Nuff82]

If this sells more than 500k lifetime it would be a miracle. "From the company that brought you Final Fantasy XIV..." Sent to die if it ever comes stateside.

[Mario007]

If this sells more than 500k lifetime it would be a miracle. "From the company that brought you Final Fantasy XIV..." Sent to die if it ever comes stateside.

It will come to the west after FF XIV relaunch which, by the looks of FF XIV now, will most likely be successful and SE will most likely get a ton of positive press for sticking to FFXIV and remaking it.

[Winnie the Pimp]

still pissed they had to make this a main numbered entry..

why not call it "Dragon Quest - Online" and call it a day? seriously SE :(

[extralite]

I hope S-E enjoys the lowest selling DQ game ever.

I think it will outsell the original one quite handily in Japan. We'll see.

[Bullza2o]

I'll buy this for Wii U if it gets localized in NA.

[Sho_Nuff82]

It will come to the west after FF XIV relaunch which, by the looks of FF XIV now, will most likely be successful and SE will most likely get a ton of positive press for sticking to FFXIV and remaking it.

If Star Wars TOR can't keep subscribers, what chance does FF XIV have? I don't see a console-only MMO based on a not-so-popular-in-the-West ip having any kind of longevity over here.

[wrowa]

still pissed they had to make this a main numbered entry.. why not call it "Dragon Quest - Online" and call it a day? seriously SE :(

Why does that even matter? This game eats up the resources that otherwise would be taken up by what you would consider "a real numbered entry". So number at the end or not, you wouldn't get "your" DQX any sooner regardless.

So what's the point? Just because you don't like it it's not supposed to have a number? That's ,,, yeah.

[BudokaiMR2]

Watch DragonBall Online be more fun in the end. :D

[Toma]

If I can play this for free 1 hour a day (Kids time), I'd buy this.

[Riposte]

If Star Wars TOR can't keep subscribers, what chance does FF XIV have? I don't see a console-only MMO based on a not-so-popular-in-the-West ip having any kind of longevity over here.

FFXIV is already on the PC and isn't even on a console right now... say what? EDIT: Oh, you are talking about DQ? Confusing. (DQ is moderately popular in the west)

FFXIV taps into a player base that stuck with FFXI for over a decade as a consistent number. FFXI's success doesn't make sense in the World of World of Warcraft but it remained the #2 p2p MMO for a very long time, so I'm guess that's what they are aiming for. Can't say for sure that base still exists nowadays.

[Night_Trekker]

Why does that even matter? This game eats up the resources that otherwise would be taken up by what you would consider "a real numbered entry". So number at the end or not, you wouldn't get "your" DQX any sooner regardless. So what's the point? Just because you don't like it it's not supposed to have a number? That's ,,, yeah.

It just signals a frightening commitment to this MMO direction for the franchise, which does not make many people happy, understandably. If it were DQ Online, it might be an "experiment," but it isn't. It's the next mainline title in the franchise, which means we can expect more of this in the future and less of what made most of us love DQ in the first place: a well-crafted, charming single player old school JRPG experience.

[dimb]

Even after watching the new trailer, I am at a complete loss as to why this game exists.

[acm2000]

cant help but think, if you need to supply a 16gb sd card with your game, maybe youre on the wrong console

[ShinUltramanJ]

This should be a tremendous flop as far as numbered DQ games go.

[Esura]

It just signals a frightening commitment to this MMO direction for the franchise, which does not make many people happy, understandably. If it were DQ Online, it might be an "experiment," but it isn't. It's the next mainline title in the franchise, which means we can expect more of this in the future and less of what made most of us love DQ in the first place: a well-crafted, charming single player old school JRPG experience.

So I guess after FFXI we got a long line of multiplayer oriented FF games eh?

[Kyoufu]

cant help but think, if you need to supply a 16gb sd card with your game, maybe youre on the wrong console

Nintendo loves Dairy Queen.

[Night_Trekker]

So I guess after FFXI we got a long line of multiplayer oriented FF games eh?

That's a good point, but I did say "more in the future," didn't I? Not "all DQ games from hereon out will be MMOs." And we did get another online FF game, didn't we? If FF14 does well after its redesign, I'm sure we'll get more FF MMOs in the future, too.

Bottom line: making this game a mainline title communicates something about SE's commitment to the MMO concept as a good fit for the DQ series. I don't think many people who love the series for what it has been so far are happy about that, and I completely understand why.

cant help but think, if you need to supply a 16gb sd card with your game, maybe youre on the wrong console

Hey, hey. Animal Crossing (GCN) was awesome and it required its own memory card.

Not that I think I'll love this as much as AC or anything :/

[sublimit]

I'll be very curious to see how this performs in Japan.
Can Wada endure another flop of one of his company's flagship titles before they finally kick him out?

[Esura]

That's a good point, but I did say "more in the future," didn't I? And we did get another online FF game, didn't we? If FF14 does well after its redesign, I'm sure we'll get more of FF MMOs, too. Bottom line: making this game a mainline title communicates something about SE's commitment to the MMO concept as a good fit for the DQ series. I don't think many people who love the series for what it has been so far are happy about that, and I completely understand why.

No doubt, which is kind of the frightening part about the whole MMO business with FF and DQ. You don't have to go by their numbering to realize SE's obsession with trying to tap into the MMO market even more. They've made many statements about their grand plans with the genre already in the past.

I feel for you and others that are perturbed by this game.

[schuelma]

I'll be very curious to see how this performs in Japan. Can Wada endure another flop of one of his company's flagship titles before they finally kick him out?

Yes I cannot even wager a guess on how this will sell. Obviously have to expect less than other mainline DQ games, but how much? a million? half a million?

[watershed]

As long as DQXI is made for the 3ds and isn't an mmo I'll be happy.

[Sho_Nuff82]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that, based on recent history, Final Fantasy XIV's redesign will have all the impact of a fart in the wind, it will continue to flop, and the PS3 version will be cancelled quietly.

[brandonh83]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that, based on recent history, Final Fantasy XIV's redesign will have all the impact of a fart in the wind, it will continue to flop, and the PS3 version will be cancelled quietly.

Man... I hope not. I would really love for FFXIV to come out and do well and for there to be a good MMORPG on PS3.

Anyway still sticking to my guns and waiting for a 3DS redesign. Hoping that will be announced at E3 but it may well be another year from now. After the catastrophe of Revelaitons and Snake Eater and Kid Icarus there's no fucking way I could invest in another 3DS until then.

[RPGCrazied]

I do want to play it. But if it comes to America with a monthly fee, then no way am I going to play it. Not paying monthly for it.

[Meccanical]

All they had to do was give me another DQ VIII...

[Mario007]

If Star Wars TOR can't keep subscribers, what chance does FF XIV have? I don't see a console-only MMO based on a not-so-popular-in-the-West ip having any kind of longevity over here.

EA and SE are chasing different numbers and different markets. FF XI is the highest grossing FF game ever and it only has around half a million of subscribers. If SE manages to get anywhere from 800 000 to a million subscribers on FF XIV they'll delighted with themselves. It's also important to note that FFXIV is not set a direct competitor to WoW nor does it try to look like it at all. Plus there's a huge console audience which SE wants to tap into which, especially in Japan, could boost sales by quite a lot.

It just signals a frightening commitment to this MMO direction for the franchise, which does not make many people happy, understandably. If it were DQ Online, it might be an "experiment," but it isn't. It's the next mainline title in the franchise, which means we can expect more of this in the future and less of what made most of us love DQ in the first place: a well-crafted, charming single player old school JRPG experience.

SE mentioned that they want 3 MMOs so that they have a flowing stream of revenue and can afford to experiment on their other titles and, even if they flop they would be able to recover easily.

[sublimit]

All they had to do was give me another DQ VIII...

Ni no kuni gives me more of a DQVIII vibe than DQX.

[Stumpokapow]

Final Fantasy XI sold 150k on PS2 with its initial release. Let's generously ignore that the Wii is dead and assume that the Wii's current health doesn't drag down DQX at all. I still don't see a reality where they sell a whole lot more than 150k units. I think the environment outside Japan is even more challenging. You can't run an MMO on 150k subscribers, and that assumes everyone subscribes.

So to me, whether or not DQX is a thing hinges entirely on when the Wii U version comes out, and if anyone cares at that point.

[electroplankton]

Final Fantasy XI sold 150k on PS2 with its initial release. Let's generously ignore that the Wii is dead and assume that the Wii's current health doesn't drag down DQX at all. I still don't see a reality where they sell a whole lot more than 150k units. I think the environment outside Japan is even more challenging. You can't run an MMO on 150k subscribers, and that assumes everyone subscribes. So to me, whether or not DQX is a thing hinges entirely on when the Wii U version comes out, and if anyone cares at that point.

Well, FF started from a fanbase with 2.5-3 mln people; DQ is much bigger, the last one sold 4.5 mln units; even a low-budget spin-off starring slimes was able to sell 150k.

[Alrus]

Final Fantasy XI sold 150k on PS2 with its initial release. Let's generously ignore that the Wii is dead and assume that the Wii's current health doesn't drag down DQX at all. I still don't see a reality where they sell a whole lot more than 150k units. I think the environment outside Japan is even more challenging. You can't run an MMO on 150k subscribers, and that assumes everyone subscribes. So to me, whether or not DQX is a thing hinges entirely on when the Wii U version comes out, and if anyone cares at that point.

DQ has a much bigger fanbase in Japan than FF. Also I think the Wii being dead will have no effect on the sales of this game. It has shown more than capable of selling big brand games despite everything else bombing in the past.

This game clearly won't reach the ridiculous heights of previous mainline DQ games, but it certainly won't bomb as bad as nearly everyone in this thread is implying. Actually I think it won't bomb at all (in Japan).

[schuelma]

Final Fantasy XI sold 150k on PS2 with its initial release. Let's generously ignore that the Wii is dead and assume that the Wii's current health doesn't drag down DQX at all. I still don't see a reality where they sell a whole lot more than 150k units. I think the environment outside Japan is even more challenging. You can't run an MMO on 150k subscribers, and that assumes everyone subscribes. So to me, whether or not DQX is a thing hinges entirely on when the Wii U version comes out, and if anyone cares at that point.

I basically agree, but I do feel (and this entirely a guess from someone whose Japanese expertise is nill), that Dragon Quest is such a bigger name and is being positioned by SE as the only mainline game as opposed to a side step or experiment, that it is possible X could do significantly better than FFXI, even just on the Wii.

[Krev]

And just how much is world of warcraft?

A game in sharp decline is your counter-example?

[Chris1964]

Final Fantasy XI sold 150k on PS2 with its initial release. Let's generously ignore that the Wii is dead and assume that the Wii's current health doesn't drag down DQX at all. I still don't see a reality where they sell a whole lot more than 150k units. I think the environment outside Japan is even more challenging. You can't run an MMO on 150k subscribers, and that assumes everyone subscribes. So to me, whether or not DQX is a thing hinges entirely on when the Wii U version comes out, and if anyone cares at that point.

150k LTD on Wii. Are you ready for another bet?

[lunchwithyuzo]

I basically agree, but I do feel (and this entirely a guess from someone whose Japanese expertise is nill), that Dragon Quest is such a bigger name and is being positioned by SE as the only mainline game as opposed to a side step or experiment, that it is possible X could do significantly better than FFXI, even just on the Wii.

It's also worth noting that MH3 carried a similar subscription fee and sold over a million in Japan. Now it's not a strict MMO and has a full "free" 1p campaign and limited 2p local subgame, but everyone can probably agree the core appeal of MH is it's 4p co-op campaign (which cost 800 yen a month iirc). Capcom also said the game beat their subscription targets too.

[Vane_MagicCity]

I think the Wii is pretty weak for internet access in general. I can't watch Netflix on either of my Wii's because it has to reload every 30 seconds. I have no trouble with the other wi-fi devices (PS3, 360, PC, Blu-Ray player).

I can't imagine trying to play an MMO on it.

[lunchwithyuzo]

150k LTD on Wii. Are you ready for another bet?

I bet it does ~500k lifetime on Wii. Which is about double what FFXI PS2 mamaged over all it's releases.

[lunchwithyuzo]

I think the Wii is pretty weak for internet access in general. I can't watch Netflix on either of my Wii's because it has to reload every 30 seconds. I have no trouble with the other wi-fi devices (PS3, 360, PC, Blu-Ray player). I can't imagine trying to play an MMO on it.

Something's wrong with your setup, I've never had this problem with Netflix.

Also, I believe Wii has the highest Netflix userbase among the consoles.

[GregLombardi]

The business decisions that have been made with this title are mind boggling.

And yet, within the context of a company struggling to keep up with the direction of the online gaming world, it makes perfect sense that Square Enix have decided to do this. But it's like a young man so desperate for a wife that he marries the first one he finds that is willing to marry him -- it rarely works out well. That's how I feel DQX is going to work out.

[Chris1964]

I think it will outsell the original one quite handily in Japan. We'll see.

The original was 1,5m. You rise the bar very high for a console MMO. I could see it do close to 1 million as an optimistic prediction but not much over that.

[Vane_MagicCity]

Something's wrong with your setup, I've never had this problem with Netflix. Also, I believe Wii has the highest Netflix userbase among the consoles.

I have moved them around to try and get a better signal with no success. The other WiFi devices sitting right beside the Wii's have no problem at all. I think it's a weak wi-fi adapter in the Wii.

[wrowa]

Final Fantasy XI sold 150k on PS2 with its initial release. Let's generously ignore that the Wii is dead and assume that the Wii's current health doesn't drag down DQX at all. I still don't see a reality where they sell a whole lot more than 150k units. I think the environment outside Japan is even more challenging. You can't run an MMO on 150k subscribers, and that assumes everyone subscribes. So to me, whether or not DQX is a thing hinges entirely on when the Wii U version comes out, and if anyone cares at that point.

You also generously ignore not only that Dragon Quest is a bigger franchise than FF but also that FFXI was released around a time when online gaming on consoles was still a curiosity.

If Chris wouldn't have been faster I'd challenge you for a bet right now :P DQX will only sell a fraction of what mainline DQ releases normally sell, but it will exceed 150k without a doubt.

[EDarkness]

I'm totally psyched for this game. Though, I'm probably going to wait for the Wii U version since I'll already have a harddrive for it and it'll be easier to deal with. I'm just worried that I'll end up caving once it comes out for the Wii and I'll pick it up anyway. :(

[Stumpokapow]

150k LTD on Wii. Are you ready for another bet?

Absolutely not--people must misunderstand me. I don't bet on every opinion I have, I bet on things where the opposing side is totally harebrained. 150k is doable, and my point doesn't hinge on that exact figure. In fact, I think even mentioning the figure or constructing my argument around it was a poor idea.

Here are my basic thoughts:
- MMOs take a lot of money to develop and run (high risk)
- They recoup this over a long period of time. With a high subscriber base over many years, they are very lucrative (high reward)
- Both for retention purposes and because they have a higher margin, MMOs typically iterate through expansion packs.
- An MMO fails when it either gets a small number of subscribers OR they subscribe for a short period of time--IE your retention is poor.
- Typically in order to maximize the potential pool of subscribers on a global scale, MMOs have a PC version. FFXI sold primarily on the PC, including in territories where the PC was weak. DQX does not have a PC SKU.

These are all facts, they're not really opinions about anything.

- Because the Wii is a fairly old system at this point and being phased out, it's pretty unlikely that the hardware is going to have a positive effect on people trying the game. Now, both my original post and this one leave it open that the Wii might not have a negative effect--that the DQ brand is so powerful that the hardware does not matter at all.

- I don't suspect that DQX will sell enough units with just a Wii SKU to build a really healthy subscription base. No console MMO ever has before. They've all relied on the PC SKU. I understand that in many parts of the world, the Net Cafe setup is pretty common for playing MMOs. This is another advantage of having a PC SKU--all the infrastructure is already there.

- If you set the figure at 100k or 300k or 500k, you'd still be looking at a level that is generally not considered profitable for a costly MMO. The Wii being an old piece of hardware that is being retired may well also contribute to a barrier to retention--to do a thought experiment, imagine that FFXI had no PC version, only PS2 version. Is it likely too many people would be playing the PS2 version in 2009+? Probably not.

- So if you're Square Enix, how do you ensure that you have the better part of a million, if not more, people subscribing to your game for 5+ years? It's not through the Wii SKU, it's through the Wii U SKU, right?

- Hence, I believe that whether or not DQX ends up being successful or marginal or a write-off is going to depend on how they introduce the Wii U SKU, how they support it, how they time it, how they transition people from Wii to Wii U, if it's compelling enough to overcome the hardware install base barrier and getting people to buy a Wii U.

(I also have quality concerns about the game, frankly, although I can't see it being an FFXIV level disaster)

Now, it's totally possible that Square Enix has some secret business plan for this game that defies conventional MMO economics. That would be unusual. It's possible Nintendo is footing some of the bill. But based on how MMOs work, the Wii U version is going to be the key to long-term success or failure.

[ZenaxPure]

I've never actually enjoyed a Dragon Quest game I've played but I'd absolutely love an MMO with turn based combat, but based on that trailer it doesn't really look like it's going to be. Get a pretty generic MMO combat vibe from it.

Curious to see how it sells, I honestly can't even come up with a good guess. I don't really know what the Japanese audience for the game is (mostly kids? All ages? Honestly always been curious about that). I do think though that in the long run it's going to end up being very profitable for SE, probably more so than FFXI ever was.

I can't see it doing very well outside of Japan though, but it would be cool to be surprised.

[Raist]

This is going to bomb with cataclysmic proportions. What the fuck are they thinking.

[Vane_MagicCity]

It would be foolsih not to release it on the Wii in the US, there are millions of Wii's out there. It will take years for the WiiU to reach the install base of the Wii, if it ever does.

[lunchwithyuzo]

I have moved them around to try and get a better signal with no success. The other WiFi devices sitting right beside the Wii's have no problem at all. I think it's a weak wi-fi adapter in the Wii.

The WiFi in your Wii could be going. After the initial stream load Netflix almost never interrupts on my Wii with near daily use. It's comparable to what my [wired] 360 connection was.