[Dax01]

haha. no.

?

[Manmademan]

TDKR doesn't really have a realistic chance. Well releasing in the summer could help it out. Question is how much is Avengers going to make? certainly has the hype and 3D charges to pass it over 500mil.

We'll have a better idea next weekend.

If Avengers keeps it's strong legs it COULD be looking at 300 million by next weekend..especially if it has a strong midweek.

If BATTLESHIP tanks (and as i've said before, it looks like it will) Avengers will have next to no competition for a month until MIB3 comes out, and no other serious competition for 3D or IMAX screens. in that case, 500 million domestic is totally do-able.

[lazybones18]

It finally happened: John Carter made more domestically than Act of Valor

Shit

[marrec]

We'll have a better idea next weekend. If Avengers keeps it's strong legs it COULD be looking at 300 million by next weekend..especially if it has a strong midweek. If BATTLESHIP tanks (and as i've said before, it looks like it will) Avengers will have next to no competition for a month until MIB3 comes out, and no other serious competition for 3D or IMAX screens. in that case, 500 million domestic is totally do-able.

That is being extremely optimistic.

[Patryn]

That is being extremely optimistic.

Not really. As said before, if it keeps a 40 percent retention rate, which is probably being conservative, that'll give it another $83 million next weekend. Combined with the $207 made this weekend, that'll take it up to $290, meaning it'll only have to gross $10 million during the week, which is extremely doable.

[Manmademan]

Not really. As said before, if it keeps a 40 percent retention rate, which is probably being conservative, that'll give it another $83 million next weekend. Combined with the $207 made this weekend, that'll take it up to $290, meaning it'll only have to gross $10 million during the week, which is extremely doable.

yup. you can't forget the midweek figures. people do still go to the movies M-F. Kids are in school, but Avengers had about half of its audience over the age of 25, and a LOT of showings were sold out this weekend. $10 to $20 million midweek and 70 to 80 million on the weekend is definitely possible. it takes strong word of mouth and the 3D/Imax tax to be feasible, but Avengers has both.

[Nemesis121]

TDKR doesn't really have a realistic chance. Well releasing in the summer could help it out. Question is how much is Avengers going to make? certainly has the hype and 3D charges to pass it over 500mil.

TDK doesn't have a chance, Avengers IMO will be box office champ for this year, WHAT challenged Avengers? nothing, Hunger games? that's 7 weeks old, Batman will have Spiderman taking it's money, and many other movies.

[Manmademan]

TDK doesn't have a chance, Avengers IMO will be box office champ for this year, WHAT challenged Avengers? nothing, Hunger games? that's 7 weeks old, Batman will have Spiderman taking it's money, and many other movies.

Avengers will be going up against Dark Shadows, the Dictator, Battleship, and MIB3 within the next month.

Of those 4, MIB3 is the only one that will seriously compete for eyeballs, and that one's about a month out. If BATTLESHIP was a stronger film, TDKR would be the summer box office champ.

[Phoenician_Viking]

So Cameron + Avengers.

Holly shit at Cameron.

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

That is being extremely optimistic.

It's actually extremely pessimistic. It'll be at ~$350m by this Sunday.

[planar1280]

Avengers will be going up against Dark Shadows, the Dictator, Battleship, and MIB3 within the next month. Of those 4, MIB3 is the only one that will seriously compete for eyeballs, and that one's about a month out. If BATTLESHIP was a stronger film, TDKR would be the summer box office champ.

you forgot prometheus, which will cut the legs from Avengers nearing the end

[Manmademan]

So Cameron + Avengers. Holly shit at Cameron.

yeah, you may or may not like his movies but you can't hate on his resume of success, and really knowing what "works" with a film. How many directors can take a B-list sci fi film (terminator) and turn it into a legendary franchise, smash box office records with a period romance, then turn around and do it again with dances with wolves in space?

Nolan is making a serious run for his title, but we'll have to see what he does after batman.

you forgot prometheus, which will cut the legs from Avengers nearing the end

I didn't, because prometheus is being marketed as a horror film and is rated R. It won't be competing for the same audience by then at ALL. (for reference- there were kids in the theatre for avengers that started straight CRYING at the Prometheus trailer. its not a family film, and avengers is going to be heavy on that audience by then.) I don't really think Prometheus and MIB are really going after the same audience either, and their release dates are a lot closer.

[Phoenician_Viking]

This thread needs to be archived and saved for all time for the lulz contained in it.

Just subscribe to it bro.

[Solo]

That is being extremely optimistic.

I think he created confusion with his wording. His initial post reads like he means it will hit 300 BEFORE the weekend (which would be very optimistic). But his next post shows that he meant 300 AFTER the weekend (which would be very pessimistic).

[marrec]

I think he created confusion with his wording. His initial post reads like he means it will hit 300 BEFORE the weekend (which would be very optimistic). But his next post shows that he meant 300 AFER the weekend (which would be very pessimistic).

Ya, his next post cleared it up, I was assuming he meant midweek says would be 100 million.

[Manmademan]

Ya, his next post cleared it up, I was assuming he meant midweek says would be 100 million.

nooooooo that would be insane. "by next weekend" I meant the end of next weekend i.e. sunday night.

[Phoenician_Viking]

this is a disaster.

The Avengers is a legitimately good movie. It´s not a disaster at all. I had very low expectations but i was surprised at how good the movie really was. I can´t wait for the sequel.

[RubxQub]

prometheus is being marketed as a horror film and is rated R. It won't be competing for the same audience by then at ALL. (for reference- there were kids in the theatre for avengers that started straight CRYING at the Prometheus trailer. its not a family film, and avengers is going to be heavy on that audience by then.) I don't really think Prometheus and MIB are really going after the same audience either, and their release dates are a lot closer.

This makes me a lot happier than it probably should.

[planar1280]

Dark Shadows expected opening 35 Million - 1 week from now

Battleship expected opening 25 Million - 2 weeks from now

Dictator expected opening 35 Million - 3 weeks from now

MIB 3 expected opening 75 Million - 4 weeks from now

Snow White and the Huntsman - 40 Million expected - 5 weeks from now

Prometheus - 70 Million expected ow - 6 weeks from now


Avengers:

200 Million OW
M-F - 90 Million (290 Million Total)
2nd Weekend - 80 million (370) Million
M-F - 50 Million (420 Million)
3rd Weekend - 45 million (465 MILLION)
M-F - 20 Million (485 Million)
4th Weekend - 20 Million (505 Million)


ending up near 580-600 Million

my prediction

[Patryn]

Dark Shadows expected opening 35 Million - 1 week from now Battleship expected opening 25 Million - 2 weeks from now Dictator expected opening 35 Million - 3 weeks from now MIB 3 expected opening 75 Million - 4 weeks from now Snow White and the Huntsman - 40 Million expected - 5 weeks from now Prometheus - 70 Million expected ow - 6 weeks from now Avengers: 200 Million OW M-F - 90 Million (290 Million Total) 2nd Weekend - 80 million (370) Million M-F - 50 Million (420 Million) 3rd Weekend - 45 million (465 MILLION) M-F - 20 Million (485 Million) 4th Weekend - 20 Million (505 Million) ending up near 580-600 Million my prediction

I hate to say it, but I think you're lowballing Battleship. I predict between $50-70 million, which would still be total BOMBA for a movie of that budget.

[Manmademan]

Dark Shadows expected opening 35 Million - 1 week from now Battleship expected opening 25 Million - 2 weeks from now Dictator expected opening 35 Million - 3 weeks from now MIB 3 expected opening 75 Million - 4 weeks from now Snow White and the Huntsman - 40 Million expected - 5 weeks from now Prometheus - 70 Million expected ow - 6 weeks from now Avengers: 200 Million OW M-F - 90 Million (290 Million Total) 2nd Weekend - 80 million (370) Million M-F - 50 Million (420 Million) 3rd Weekend - 45 million (465 MILLION) M-F - 20 Million (485 Million) 4th Weekend - 20 Million (505 Million) ending up near 580-600 Million my prediction

you have Dictator WAY too high (the movie has bomb written all over it), and Prometheus is again Rated R. that likely makes it a better film, but cuts its audience WAY down. I'm extremely hyped for it, but there are only 4 R rated films in history that managed a $70+ million opening- 300, Hangover II, Passion of the Christ, and Matrix Reloaded. Prometheus just doesn't have the hype (or strong leads) those movies do.

Dictator will open at $15, max. Prometheus at about $50, and that's being optimistic.

other than that, I'd probably agree with you that Avengers tops out at about 600 million. It's good, but its not Avatar.

I hate to say it, but I think you're lowballing Battleship. I predict between $50-70 million, which would still be total BOMBA for a movie of that budget.

I was thinking the same thing, but I really do think Avengers overperforming (plus no 3D) is really going to cut into ticket sales- there is literally zero buzz for that movie, and ads and promos for it are getting buried under Avengers hype. BATTLESHIP is going to be pulling John Carter numbers.

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

I would say you're lowballing Snow White too. It's going to be the first female driven blockbuster since The Hunger Games, and it actually looks good, so I can't see an opening under $70m.

[Solo]

Snow White is going to be a surprise hit, methinks.

[Manmademan]

Snow White is going to be a surprise hit, methinks.

I am excited for that, but forgot all about it. Do you think the other snow white movie (that sucked) that released earlier is going to have an effect on ticket sales?

[DoctorWho]

Snow White is going to be a surprise hit, methinks.

Hemsworth's box office power will make it a hit.

Star Trek
Thor
Avengers

All Hemsworth classics.

[Expendable.]

I am excited for that, but forgot all about it. Do you think the other snow white movie (that sucked) that released earlier is going to have an effect on ticket sales?

Did you actually see it? Mirror Mirror was great.

[Hot Coldman]

Snow White looks surprisingly excellent. I will definitely see that.

[RubxQub]

I would say you're lowballing Snow White too. It's going to be the first female driven blockbuster since The Hunger Games, and it actually looks good, so I can't see an opening under $70m.

Snow White is going to be good, but I don't see it making 70 opening night...I'd be shocked if it got up to $50.

[Solo]

Snow White is going to be good, but I don't see it making 70 opening night...I'd be shocked if it got up to $50.

He means weekend, Rub.

[FoneBone]

I am excited for that, but forgot all about it. Do you think the other snow white movie (that sucked) that released earlier is going to have an effect on ticket sales?

For all the ridiculous studio one-upmanship between the two films, I doubt it. Very little resemblance in their respective approaches.

[RubxQub]

He means weekend, Rub.

Er yeah, that's what I meant...I don't see it making that much. Put me down for 50.

[Manmademan]

Did you actually see it? Mirror Mirror was great.

The fiancee saw it (she likes Once Upon a Time too) but her impressions on it weren't good.
They are certainly two totally different movies, but having the two so close together can't help but be confusing for casual fans who aren't religiously paying attention or watching trailers.

[Scarecrow]

I can see them tweaking the marketing of snow white, focusing on "the Avenger's Chris Hemsworth!!"

[RubxQub]

For what it's worth I think Snow White is going to be an awesome movie, I just don't see it taking hold with that many people.

I don't know anyone who is hyping Snow White at all right now beyond people plugged into the movie scene or casually watched trailers.

[Manmademan]

I can see them tweaking the marketing of snow white, focusing on "the Avenger's Chris Hemsworth!!"

i was about to make a joke about "The expendables 2" but didn't even realize that Chris had a younger brother. I thought the "Hemsworth" in that movie was him this whole time.

[FoneBone]

For what it's worth I think Snow White is going to be an awesome movie, I just don't see it taking hold with that many people. I don't know anyone who is hyping Snow White at all right now beyond people plugged into the movie scene or casually watched trailers.

I don't put much stock in anecdotal "people aren't that hyped for it" reports. We had a lot of people hereabouts saying the same thing about Avengers a few weeks ago.

[RubxQub]

I don't put much stock in anecdotal "people aren't that hyped for it" reports. We had a lot of people hereabouts saying the same thing about Avengers a few weeks ago.

I just don't see how it picks up wide scale support in the levels of Harry Potter. I want it to, I just doubt it will.

[Phoenician_Viking]

Snow White is going to be a surprise hit, methinks.

That and Total recall.

[FoneBone]

I just don't see how it picks up wide scale support in the levels of Harry Potter. I want it to, I just doubt it will.

I never said it would do Harry Potter business, come on.

[KevinCow]

I am excited for that, but forgot all about it. Do you think the other snow white movie (that sucked) that released earlier is going to have an effect on ticket sales?

Snow White looks surprisingly excellent. I will definitely see that.

Snow White is going to be good, but I don't see it making 70 opening night...I'd be shocked if it got up to $50.

Wait, people actually think Snow White doesn't look like trash?

The trailer made it look hilariously bad. An unnecessarily gritty reboot. While I laughed through the rest of the trailer (especially when they cut to the chick from Twilight as "the fairest of them all"), the attempt to deliver the "Mirror, mirror, on the wall" line dramatically made me cringe.

[marrec]

Wait, people actually think Snow White doesn't look like trash? The trailer made it look hilariously bad. An unnecessarily gritty reboot. While I laughed through the rest of the trailer (especially when they cut to the chick from Twilight as "the fairest of them all"), the attempt to deliver the "Mirror, mirror, on the wall" line dramatically made me cringe.

It doesn't matter if it looks bad (it doesn't) but the appeal is in 'twilight chick' and Hemsworth, fairy tales are popular right now and the audience that digs Potter and Twilight will see this movie, especially if it actually turns out to be good. Just a note, twilight chick is a pretty good actress and might surprise you, I expect this movie to be at least halfway decent and I'd even bet that it beats out MIB3 for the top spot.

[Manmademan]

It doesn't matter if it looks bad (it doesn't) but the appeal is in 'twilight chick' and Hemsworth, fairy tales are popular right now and the audience that digs Potter and Twilight will see this movie, especially if it actually turns out to be good. Just a note, twilight chick is a pretty good actress and might surprise you, I expect this movie to be at least halfway decent and I'd even bet that it beats out MIB3 for the top spot.

ahahhaa NOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[marrec]

ahahhaa NOOOOOOOOOOOOO

During it's week of release? We'll see... MIB3 is the movie that looks like it will be shit. Shit movie + years between 2 and 3 equal not a great reception.

[ViewtifulJC]

The last time Will Smith made a shitty, overblown buddy cop sequel 8+ years after the last one, it worked out pretty well for him!

[marrec]

The last time Will Smith made a shitty, overblown buddy cop sequel 8+ years after the last one, it worked out pretty well for him!

I've just lowered my expectations of the general public, thanks for that stark reminder.

[Cake Boss]

Hey guys I thought Piracy was the reason movies don't sell anymore or make any money.

[Biggest-Geek-Ever]

Snow White comes out a week after MIB3 so, yeah, it'll obviously be #1 lol.

Actuals for Avengers should be here within the next half hour.

[apana]

I'm very curious to see how Spidey does. None of my friends are interested at all.

Part of the reason why Avengers was so successful is the same reason why Spidey will do well, people all over the world flock towards these big blockbuster releases. It has become like an event. Spiderman has been consistent and will do 800 million minimum, probably closer to 1 billion if it is actually good. Though admittedly Spiderman doesn't have that roller coaster quality to it that Avengers had.

[ViewtifulJC]

I've just lowered my expectations of the general public, thanks for that stark reminder.

Ha! I think Will Smith is so darn likable, so even if I haven't liked any of his films since...I, Robot I think, I can't help but root for him.

[Manmademan]

The last time Will Smith made a shitty, overblown buddy cop sequel 8+ years after the last one, it worked out pretty well for him!

yep. smith is one of the most consistently bankable stars in hollywood, even when he has weak vehicles to work with.

He works best when he has someone else to play off of (as opposed to say, I am legend or I robot) and MIB falls right into that category.

i expect MIB to overperform, and carry that into the next weekend. Snow white isn't touching it.