[Vilam]

Please don't. Having one european currency makes filling out my expense reports slightly less miserable.

[Frankfurter]

Portugal and Spain might go the way of Greece, it's going to be interesting to see how long the EU will stay together with Hollande in charge of France and likely won't see eye to eye with Germany.

Unless the politicians in charge are much bigger idiots than one could imagine I really don't see the EU as a whole (EU =/ Eurozone) as in danger.
While Merkel and Hollande are certainly not exactly in the same camp, they are both professional politicians and know that they need to get their shit together and atleast establish a relationship that is working.
Besides that: there will be federal elections in September 2013 in Germany and unless a miracle happens the current CDU/CSU (conservatives)/ FDP (liberals) coalition will not get the majority. Merkel might remain chancelor though in a grand coalition with the SPD (social democrats). Those certainly would force her into a position that is much closer to Hollande though, while I guess that Hollande will be pushed into a direction that is much closer to Merkel in the coming months by the reality.

[Tom_Cody]

Complete and total failure of austerity due to Germany's strategy of promoting "market confidence" is about to cause on of the greatest crisis in Europe's recent history. And only 4 years ago, with the implementation of pro-growth strategy, everything could have been prevented.

I thought this was caused by Greece's wildly irresponsible borrowing.

[poisonelf]

While inside the EMU Greece is utterly reliant on the ECB and EU for money to keep the country running. If Greece decides not to pay face value on the bonds it just issued and doesn't keep to the bail out conditions the money that it currently receives from the EU will come to a very abrupt stop. That means Greece needs to become self funded, the only way to ensure this is to reintroduce the Drachma and institute a series of capital controls. By stopping the bail out funding to Greece the EMU would essentially be kicking the country out. For Greece to try and maintain membership of the EMU while also not adhering to the terms of their bailout seems too difficult. It would mean an overnight budget cuts and unemployment above 30% which is heading into revolution territory. Greece would need to leave, default and go to the IMF for transitory funding while the country restructures while also introducing capital and exchange controls. It really is the only path that makes sense for Greece and Greek people. If done right I could see Greece's unemployment rate begin to drop in a couple of years and dipping below 17% in 2015, the EU the official estimates say that unemployment in Greece won't go down to that level until 2018, and those are mightily optimistic projections. It is time to forget about the Euro, at least for Greece, and get back to market enforced fiscal rectitude. The IMF can act as a lender of last resort to Greece while it transitions, but eventually Greece will have to begin making payments on their foreign law bonds and that means some kind of growth strategy, within the Euro I just don't see how Greece grows its GDP.

Thanks for explaining, I appreciate the point of view you provide (I think you work in a bank?).

However, you still ignore or are not aware of very, very important factors:

1) Greece essentially is self-sufficient if we restructure and reduce debt payments. I just had a long discussion on this with another Greek fellow gaf member, and it comes down to this:
There are conflicting reports. I could provide you with details, articles and budget reports regarding this, as I did in the Greek elections thread.
Anti-Memorandum parties as well as economists who do not belong to mainstream media all agree and provide information as to how, without debt payments, Greece has billions to spare.
Pro-memorandum parties claim that without the 'bailouts' we can't support internal needs. Even if we go by the latest budget report, signed 6 months ago by Venizelos, which is different to the one I downloaded last year and that many MPs and analysts still quote, there is a deficit of ~4 billion, nothing near the immense numbers people seem to think.

I found additional important information from mainstream newspapers (NEA) here that I still didn't use to reply to the elections thread, regarding how Venizelos in that latest budget report didn't use income from shipping industry and tourism (both huge for Greece).

2) There are alternative sources for borrowing money if needed, with lower interest rates than the ~4-5% that TROIKA charges now in order to over-profiteer on our backs (since they borrow from the ECB at ~1%).
China and Russia for example. Russia specifically had already offered a low interest rate loan to Papandreou before the TROIKA raid, and Papandreou declined. It's one of the many reasons why he is being sued (from multiple sources) for national treason.
Russian MP claimed that "he wouldn't accept the loan from us even at 0%. It was designed for him to go to the IMF".

So things are obviously bleak, and returning to the drachma is a very real possibility (which at this point I'm starting to prefer, while I didn't just a few months ago), but nothing is certain and there is no set mechanism for Greece to be forced out of the Euro.

[poisonelf]

I thought this was caused by Greece's wildly irresponsible borrowing.

You thought wrong :) But it's totally understandable since that's how it's been presented in most media up to recently (still is in some parts).

Not that borrowing wasn't part of the fiasco, but that's how economies work at this point, and Greece's debt as a % of GDP was not that much higher than that of other countries (and if you also include private debt MUCH lower than many countries, for example Netherlands).

[SyNapSe]

2) There are alternative sources for borrowing money if needed, with lower interest rates than the ~4-5% that TROIKA charges now in order to over-profiteer on our backs (since they borrow from the ECB at ~1%). China and Russia for example. Russia specifically had already offered a low interest rate loan to Papandreou before the TROIKA raid, and Papandreou declined. It's one of the many reasons why he is being sued (from multiple sources) for national treason. Russian MP claimed that "he wouldn't accept the loan from us even at 0%. It was designed for him to go to the IMF".

Are they indicating he was getting a cut for sending the loans to TROIKA? I can't imagine why else you would deliberately screw over your own people.

[poisonelf]

Are they indicating he was getting a cut for sending the loans to TROIKA? I can't imagine why else you would deliberately screw over your own people.

Go to page 2 of this thread to see just a small part of how schizophrenic-traitorous Papandreou was. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...8&postcount=70

I include Strauss Kahn's interview on how Papandreou was working with him in secret for the IMF deal but didn't want people to know it, while he was giving interviews in Greece claiming the IMF destroys countries and we should never do that.

I don't know if it was as simple as getting a cut, but his purposeful destruction of Greece is at this point accepted by the vast majority of the population, he has been sued multiple times for national treason, and new data are being revealed by the day.

There is proof for example that his brother gained billions through CDS, essentially 'betting' on Greece defaulting.

[Lagspike_exe]

Go to page 2 of this thread to see just a small part of how schizophrenic-traitorous Papandreou was. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...8&postcount=70 I include Strauss Kahn's interview on how Papandreou was working with him in secret for the IMF deal but didn't want people to know it, while he was giving interviews in Greece claiming the IMF destroys countries and we should never do that. I don't know if it was as simple as getting a cut, but his purposeful destruction of Greece is at this point accepted by the vast majority of the population, he has been sued multiple times for national treason, and new data are being revealed by the day. There is proof for example that his brother gained billions through CDS, essentially 'betting' on Greece defaulting.

Do you have any links for the CDS accusation? It definitely wouldn't shock me if it was true.

[poisonelf]

Do you have any links for the CDS accusation? It definitely wouldn't shock me if it was true.

I have tens of links on the issue. As you realize most are in Greek. I'll provide some in Greek just in case you know someone who can read Greek and you trust, and I'll also try to find some in English.

Some Greek links:
http://www.enet.gr/?i=news.el.article&id=292180
http://www.newsbomb.gr/apokalypseis/...fwn-papandreoy
http://www.realpolitics.gr/archives/33939/ (this one claims that there is no connection)
http://www.newsbomb.gr/politikh/stor...o-a-papandreoy

There are hundreds actually. It's a complicated issue, starting with a company called Unigestion in which Papandreou was a high ranking member. Unigestion handles Greek CDS.

The DA handling the case (Peponis) asked to be exempt from the case because there were heavy-handed 'interventions' on his research. There was a brief 'shock' throughout our ridiculous mainstream media due to this accusation, and our supreme court did not accept his request, so he's still investigating the issue.

Kamenos, president of the Independent Greeks party, is one of the most unrelenting accusers of the issue:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXeycJRjCzg (Greek).

Links in English:

http://hellasfrappe.blogspot.com/201...ommitting.html

http://www.grreporter.info/en/papand...direction/5700

A perhaps very telling link is this one: Austrian europarliament member (I think Austrian) bringing up the issue of Papandreou speculating against his own country officially:

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/...DOC+XML+V0//EN

EDIT:
A report I found by Max Keiser explaining the situation, in English obviously:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqIuwF1ffrA

I realize Keiser's reputation is not the best, but keep in mind that this is not an issue he is revealing, or 'creating' or whatever, he's just reporting on very real accusations, data, and an ongoing investigation. It's a major issue in Greece, and was all over media for a time, mainstream or otherwise.

[catfish]

You thought wrong :) But it's totally understandable since that's how it's been presented in most media up to recently (still is in some parts). Not that borrowing wasn't part of the fiasco, but that's how economies work at this point, and Greece's debt as a % of GDP was not that much higher than that of other countries (and if you also include private debt MUCH lower than many countries, for example Netherlands).

so you're saying greece didn't go absolutely bananas with spending when they got the euro and buy up everything including an olympics that they simply couldn't afford?

[poisonelf]

so you're saying greece didn't go absolutely bananas with spending when they got the euro and buy up everything including an olympics that they simply couldn't afford?

This is a huge discussion and I need to use a hundred links or so... I've covered many of these in previous posts I've made.

In short Greece did 'go bananas' with spending, and the Olympics did hurt us, but all that money went to corrupt politicians, a few select billionaires, and foreign (mostly German by far) companies that benefited by no-contest deals for arms trades and infrastructure. Nothing went towards the people, other than a few tens of thousands of hardcore political parties followers.

Still, there would be no need for TROIKA loans if Papandreou hadn't artificially inflated the 2009 deficit and also made sure that market spreads went through the roof so that Greece couldn't borrow from private sector.

Many reforms are indeed needed, but they're almost the exact opposite of what is happening now.

[zou]

Why don't they just export their way out, like Germany did? But no, instead these lazy countries all just decided to leech off of the ECBs titt and now that that party is over they still won't embrace austerity. Like Schaeuble said, they should all just copy Germany's model and turn their market into one that's export driven. Boom, problem solved.

[poisonelf]

Why don't they just export their way out, like Germany did? But no, instead these lazy countries all just decided to leech off of the ECBs titt and now that that party is over they still won't embrace austerity. Like Schaeuble said, they should all just copy Germany's model and turn their market into one that's export driven. Boom, problem solved.

This is so uninformed, short sighted, bigoted and off the point my head honestly just hurt a little..

[zomgbbqftw]

Thanks for explaining, I appreciate the point of view you provide (I think you work in a bank?). However, you still ignore or are not aware of very, very important factors: 1) Greece essentially is self-sufficient if we restructure and reduce debt payments. I just had a long discussion on this with another Greek fellow gaf member, and it comes down to this: There are conflicting reports. I could provide you with details, articles and budget reports regarding this, as I did in the Greek elections thread. Anti-Memorandum parties as well as economists who do not belong to mainstream media all agree and provide information as to how, without debt payments, Greece has billions to spare. Pro-memorandum parties claim that without the 'bailouts' we can't support internal needs. Even if we go by the latest budget report, signed 6 months ago by Venizelos, which is different to the one I downloaded last year and that many MPs and analysts still quote, there is a deficit of ~4 billion, nothing near the immense numbers people seem to think. I found additional important information from mainstream newspapers (NEA) here that I still didn't use to reply to the elections thread, regarding how Venizelos in that latest budget report didn't use income from shipping industry and tourism (both huge for Greece). 2) There are alternative sources for borrowing money if needed, with lower interest rates than the ~4-5% that TROIKA charges now in order to over-profiteer on our backs (since they borrow from the ECB at ~1%). China and Russia for example. Russia specifically had already offered a low interest rate loan to Papandreou before the TROIKA raid, and Papandreou declined. It's one of the many reasons why he is being sued (from multiple sources) for national treason. Russian MP claimed that "he wouldn't accept the loan from us even at 0%. It was designed for him to go to the IMF". So things are obviously bleak, and returning to the drachma is a very real possibility (which at this point I'm starting to prefer, while I didn't just a few months ago), but nothing is certain and there is no set mechanism for Greece to be forced out of the Euro.

By restructuring debt Greece would essentially have a hard default which means access to international money is going to be limited (non-existent) and the way government works is that tax money doesn't really pay for day-to-day funding of government expenses. The government must sell debt to finance the state to ensure they have enough to pay wages and social security in the short term while taxes collected will cover those bond repayments in the medium to long term. Unless a government has huge national reserves and a huge surplus this is the manner in which the state is financed. Greece has neither massive national reserves or a huge surplus.

To ensure that the state functions properly Greece would have to sell a lot of debt on a day to day basis, which means either the IMF would have to be the lender of last resort or Greece will struggle to pay wages and meet social security entitlements on a weekly or monthly basis.

Going to Russia or China for money is a very poor idea, the IMF may impose severe restructuring and harsh conditions in the event of a default, but Russia and China would be a much, much worse prospect. Also, I wouldn't depend on Russian money, the offer from Russia is largely a diplomatic show to try and show Russian supremacy over the EU to convince wavering ex-USSR nations to throw their lot in with Russia rather than the EU. Also, much of their wealth is illusory, if oil prices were to fall 20% (and given that it looks like the EU economy is about to fall off the proverbial cliff, that isn't implausible) Russia's surplus turns into a 6 point deficit. Putin has been shovelling gold into his supporters mouths to keep them voting, Russia is still the largest home of clientalism, the only difference is that Russia now has the means to keep the ball rolling because of its oil wealth. Again, I would be very worried about going cap in hand to either Russia or China. Also, don't believe a word of what any Russian MP says, they are in it for national interest, not the interest of Greece or any other country, the offer exists to embarrass the EU, it is not sincere. China's offer probably has more merit, but really, I would be very worried about being utterly reliant on China for funding as their goals are somewhat opaque.

If the Eurozone cuts Greece off then a return to the Drachma will happen within days. Forget about China, Russia, legalities of the bailout etc... The state needs to function, people need to be paid and the fastest way to ensure that the country functions is a return to Drachma and institutes capital and exchange controls.

[Kabouter]

Why don't they just export their way out, like Germany did? But no, instead these lazy countries all just decided to leech off of the ECBs titt and now that that party is over they still won't embrace austerity. Like Schaeuble said, they should all just copy Germany's model and turn their market into one that's export driven. Boom, problem solved.

While the frustration is understandable, you are really directing your rage to the wrong people. Greece isn't lazy, Greek workers work quite a lot, more than in most other EU countries. The problems are different. They are cultural (tax compliance), there are problems with structural corruption, the population isn't as well educated as those of more competitive Northern states, infrastructure isn't of the same standard that it is elsewhere, there aren't enough companies with internationally powerful brands, Greece is geographically not as well situated as Germany, Germany has a more developed fiscal structure and a superior network of tax conventions and so on.

None of the countries that are facing problems right now are in trouble because of one thing, and certainly not because people are lazy. There are large structural problems, some of which would take decades to solve.

[Beautifully Shaped Monsters]

Speaking of the Olympics. I really think they should be put on hold for the next 12-20 years. They have become so ridiculously expensive that no nation's tax payer should have to put up those costs out of a vague promise of return in the form of tourist revenues.

[zomgbbqftw]

While the frustration is understandable, you are really directing your rage to the wrong people. Greece isn't lazy, Greek workers work quite a lot, more than in most other EU countries. The problems are different. They are cultural (tax compliance), there are problems with structural corruption, the population isn't as well educated as those of more competitive Northern states, infrastructure isn't of the same standard that it is elsewhere, there aren't enough companies with internationally powerful brands, Greece is geographically not as well situated as Germany, Germany has a more developed fiscal structure and a superior network of tax conventions and so on. None of the countries that are facing problems right now are in trouble because of one thing, and certainly not because people are lazy. There are large structural problems, some of which would take decades to solve.

Not only that, but the solution to the world's problem isn't exporting more. Germany are part of the problem, they have a huge, huge balance of payments surplus which is distorting the whole continental economy.

[Mgoblue201]

Export to whom, exactly, when most economies have still barely recovered from the crisis?

[Lagspike_exe]

By restructuring debt Greece would essentially have a hard default which means access to international money is going to be limited (non-existent) and the way government works is that tax money doesn't really pay for day-to-day funding of government expenses. The government must sell debt to finance the state to ensure they have enough to pay wages and social security in the short term while taxes collected will cover those bond repayments in the medium to long term. Unless a government has huge national reserves and a huge surplus this is the manner in which the state is financed. Greece has neither massive national reserves or a huge surplus. To ensure that the state functions properly Greece would have to sell a lot of debt on a day to day basis, which means either the IMF would have to be the lender of last resort or Greece will struggle to pay wages and meet social security entitlements on a weekly or monthly basis. Going to Russia or China for money is a very poor idea, the IMF may impose severe restructuring and harsh conditions in the event of a default, but Russia and China would be a much, much worse prospect. Also, I wouldn't depend on Russian money, the offer from Russia is largely a diplomatic show to try and show Russian supremacy over the EU to convince wavering ex-USSR nations to throw their lot in with Russia rather than the EU. Also, much of their wealth is illusory, if oil prices were to fall 20% (and given that it looks like the EU economy is about to fall off the proverbial cliff, that isn't implausible) Russia's surplus turns into a 6 point deficit. Putin has been shovelling gold into his supporters mouths to keep them voting, Russia is still the largest home of clientalism, the only difference is that Russia now has the means to keep the ball rolling because of its oil wealth. Again, I would be very worried about going cap in hand to either Russia or China. Also, don't believe a word of what any Russian MP says, they are in it for national interest, not the interest of Greece or any other country, the offer exists to embarrass the EU, it is not sincere. China's offer probably has more merit, but really, I would be very worried about being utterly reliant on China for funding as their goals are somewhat opaque. If the Eurozone cuts Greece off then a return to the Drachma will happen within days. Forget about China, Russia, legalities of the bailout etc... The state needs to function, people need to be paid and the fastest way to ensure that the country functions is a return to Drachma and institutes capital and exchange controls.

How exactly is a low-interest Russian loan worst than IMF's high interest, austerity-driven loan? And claiming that Russia is in it for its own interest (they are) while Germany's conditioning destroyed Greece's economy is laughable.

[zomgbbqftw]

How exactly is a low-interest Russian loan worst than IMF's high interest, austerity-driven loan? And claiming that Russia is in it for its own interest (they are) while Germany's conditioning destroyed Greece's economy is laughable.

If you actually believe Russia's loan offer was sincere then I want to live on the same planet as you...

[zou]

Export to whom, exactly, when most economies have still barely recovered from the crisis?

They all just need to export more. The solution is so obvious.

But no, it seems only the Germans get it.

[zomgbbqftw]

They all just need to export more. The solution is so obvious. But no, it seems only the Germans get it.

I'm not sure if you are trolling or actually being serious...

[zou]

If you actually believe Russia's loan offer was sincere then I want to live on the same planet as you...

Exactly. With Germany we know they sincerely care, precisely because those austerity measures hurt the country so much. And something can only be effective if and when it hurts. Just like mom spanking little Timmy after again catching him at the cookie jar, Germany wants to make sure they learn their lesson.

[PJV3]

They all just need to export more. The solution is so obvious. But no, it seems only the Germans get it.

They need to lace honey and yoghurt with crack. It would be like putting crack in crack.

[Lagspike_exe]

If you actually believe Russia's loan offer was sincere then I want to live on the same planet as you...

Sincere or not, rejecting it on the basis of their "interests" when the other option has lead to this sort of situation is ridiculous.

[Something Wicked]

I think most people realize the difference between not paying back the EMU, IMF, and Russia. Two of them will put up a big stink and call you names, but one of them will seize your country's resources and assassinate your politicians.

[Kabouter]

I think most people realize the difference between not paying back the EMU, IMF, and Russia. Two of them will put up a big stink and call you names, but one of them will seize your country's resources and assassinate your politicians.

I dunno, Lagarde seems pretty ruthless, but I think even she wouldn't assassinate people.

[Lagspike_exe]

A bit more detailed description of how Greece can go back to Drachma and what's going to happen with Spain, Italy and Portugal in the process.

Vari­ant 1 - the Argen­tine option: Default and de-peg the currency.  When Argenti­na default­ed not only did the gov­ern­ment default but they forced a pri­vate default. If you had a debt in US Dol­lars in Argenti­na prior to the default you were forced to pay it back in Peso. Indeed it was ille­gal to make pay­ment in US dol­lars. Like­wise if you had a US dol­lar asset you got back Peso. A dol­lar deposit in Cit­i­group in Buenos Aires  became a peso deposit. If you real­ly want­ed to keep your dol­lars you need­ed to make your Cit­i­group deposit in New York. The forced pri­vate sec­tor default was nec­es­sary for Argenti­na. The Argen­tine banks all had lots of US dol­lar fund­ing. If you deval­ued with­out forc­ing their default then they would all have uncon­trolled defaults (a true dis­as­ter) and the coun­try would lose its insti­tu­tions. Tele­fon­i­ca Argenti­na would have failed too - fail­ing to replay USD debts. The same applies in Greece. If the Greek Gov­ern­ment were to deval­ue the new Drach­ma (to per­haps a third the value of the Euro) then the banks (which are loaded with Greek Sov­er­eign paper) would default. Even Hel­lenic Tele­com would default because they would be forced to repay their bil­lions of Euro bor­row­ings whilst col­lect­ing only Drach­ma phone bills. The Argen­tine econ­o­my was doing quite nice­ly after the deval­u­a­tion. The les­son was that deval­u­a­tion worked - pro­vid­ed you simul­ta­ne­ous­ly forced pri­vate sec­tor default. If you were Greece you would take this option with­out hesitation. However this option has explo­sive impli­ca­tions for Europe. You see a bank deposit in Athens is going to turn your Euros into Drach­ma. Overnight it will lose 70 per­cent of its val­u­a­tion. So it has to be done quick­ly and with an ele­ment of sur­prise (as per Argenti­na when most peo­ple did not get their dol­lars over the bor­der). With­out sur­prise peo­ple will rush their money to Deutsche Bank in Munich. One week­end we will just find that the Greeks have done it. But now sup­pose Greece does pull this trick. The day after we have a Drach­ma - deposits are in Drach­ma. We might print a sin­gle 10 drach­ma note and allow it to set­tle against the Euro - then over time print more. This should work for Greece. Now if you are Irish or Ital­ian or Por­tuguese (or even Span­ish) you know the rules. You get to get your Euro out of the PIGS and into the core (Ger­many) as fast as pos­si­ble. So max all your cred­it cards (for cash), draw all your bank deposits and load them in the boot of your car and make the drive to Switzer­land or Ger­many. Some­where safe. Oth­er­wise you are going to lose half the value the day that the rest of the PIGS do a Greece. And this bank run – a run includ­ing tens of thou­sands of Ital­ians dri­ving their Fiats - will sure­ly blow apart every Ital­ian bank. And their Euro-skeloritic com­pa­tri­ots will sign the death knell for for all their banks too. If you are going to go the deval­u­a­tion route you are going to have to do it all at once. Like the big-bank week­end (maybe coin­cid­ing with a week long bank hol­i­day) in which all core Euro­pean coun­tries get their own cur­ren­cy back. There is a prece­dent. It is not a pret­ty one. When the Austro-Hungarian empire col­lapsed there was a sin­gle cur­ren­cy over a huge area cov­er­ing much of what is now Euroland. In this case the rather Ger­man­ic Aus­tri­ans were in charge (or rather were in charge until their empire col­lapsed). What they did was put troops on all the bor­ders and made it ille­gal to take cash (or wire cash!) across bor­ders. Then all Austro-Marks in each coun­try was stamped - con­vert­ed to Drach­ma for Greece, Marks for Ger­many, Pese­ta for Spain or what­ev­er the cur­ren­cies of the day were [If some­one remem­bers the 1918 bor­der splits bet­ter than me they are wel­come to say…] In this con­cep­tion all Span­ish debts become Pese­ta debts. All Ger­man debts become Mark debts. All Greek debts become Drach­ma debts. Unstamped cur­ren­cy goes worth­less. If you are going to split the cur­ren­cy I see no alter­na­tive to a big bang - and if you do that I see no alter­na­tive to troops at the bor­der stop­ping trans­fers (and wire trans­fers) because shift­ing cash North looks so prof­itable against a sud­den deval­u­a­tion. Sud­den­ly – and against all his­toric hope – its time again to guard the French-German (and every other Euro­pean bor­der) with troops for a week whilst the money is stamped. Note how­ev­er almost every coun­try bor­rowed in hard cur­ren­cy (Marks) and got to repay in soft cur­ren­cy (Drach­ma). This is a scheme which shifts the loss home to Ger­many and with lit­tle com­pen­sat­ing ben­e­fit except that they get their beloved Mark back. Its a scheme that is way bet­ter for the periph­ery because they get to keep their insti­tu­tions. In two years they should bounce back like Argenti­na bounced back after their default. Uni­lat­er­al Greek default and deval­u­a­tion with­out plan­ning for the periph­ery to do the same - well that is a true mess. Too ugly almost to think about - and it would be uni­lat­er­al for less than a week. The rest of Europe falls into that abyss with max­i­mum move­ment of deposits and cash in the mean­time.

http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/20...n-default.html

[zomgbbqftw]

I dunno, Lagarde seems pretty ruthless, but I think even she wouldn't assassinate people.

Zing!

OT, Kab, I want to be an honorary Dutch person during these Euro Championships, what do you recommend? I'm already stocking up on Amstel, but other than that I'm pretty clueless.

[Culex]

I've yet to see a good comparison, but how is the Greece situation compared to Iceland's a few years back?

[mrklaw]

can we have our money back?

Why can't we just cancel everyone's debt now? Its all paper money, you pay me the interest on a portion of what you owe me, I pay the next country - its like one big human money centipede.

Just start from scratch and put some better controls in place this time. Its in nobody's interest for any of this to go any further - why do you care about getting a fraction of your loan back when the world economy gets fucked up in the process- that will affect your bottom line way more.

[Kabouter]

Zing! OT, Kab, I want to be an honorary Dutch person during these Euro Championships, what do you recommend? I'm already stocking up on Amstel, but other than that I'm pretty clueless.

I recommend hating Portugal and basically changing everything into orange. They even sell orange toilet paper here during Euro/World cups.

I've yet to see a good comparison, but how is the Greece situation compared to Iceland's a few years back?

Well Iceland has an incredibly well educated population, is socially cohesive, incredibly stable politically, has excellent infrastructure, is completely energy independent for all but transportation and has very little corruption. Other than that though, pretty close! ;)

[poisonelf]

If you actually believe Russia's loan offer was sincere then I want to live on the same planet as you...

Perhaps you remember a few months back you had made a thread starting with "Greece going to drachma in a few days, you heard it here first". I'm not trying to imply that your information is generally bad, I really do appreciate your input and knowledge of these issues, but you also realize how many rumors fly around and how easy it is for speculation and theories to sprout.

You base your argument on the assumption that Russia is insincere and shouldn't be considered? You base that on what? Cyprus just received a loan of 2,5 bn at 4,5% interest rate. That's the same interest rate TROIKA uses on Greece WITHOUT humiliating, impoverishing, destructive conditions attached. I don't understand your line of reasoning regarding Russia.

Also, your analysis on how a country works is spot on with what I know, but it doesn't take into account the fact that Greece can cover internal expenses, such as salaries and pensions, without needing to borrow.

I didn't see Iceland being destroyed. The major difference is that they have their own currency of course, but the similarity is that they chose to not pay the loan-shark debts banks imposed, and they now have no problem with their credit rating and borrowing from the private sector at normal rates.

I think most people realize the difference between not paying back the EMU, IMF, and Russia. Two of them will put up a big stink and call you names, but one of them will seize your country's resources and assassinate your politicians.

I'm sorry but the IMF=USA essentially, and you really think that a small country fucking over the USA is 'called names' while it's only Russia that fucks you up? You're a bit prejudiced.

[Tideas]

Perhaps you remember a few months back you had made a thread starting with "Greece going to drachma in a few days, you heard it here first". I'm not trying to imply that your information is generally bad, I really do appreciate your input and knowledge of these issues, but you also realize how many rumors fly around and how easy it is for speculation and theories to sprout. You base your argument on the assumption that Russia is insincere and shouldn't be considered? You base that on what? Cyprus just received a loan of 2,5 bn at 4,5% interest rate. That's the same interest rate TROIKA uses on Greece WITHOUT humiliating, impoverishing, destructive conditions attached. I don't understand your line of reasoning regarding Russia. Also, your analysis on how a country works is spot on with what I know, but it doesn't take into account the fact that Greece can cover internal expenses, such as salaries and pensions, without needing to borrow. I didn't see Iceland being destroyed. The major difference is that they have their own currency of course, but the similarity is that they chose to not pay the loan-shark debts banks imposed, and they now have no problem with their credit rating and borrowing from the private sector at normal rates. I'm sorry but the IMF=USA essentially, and you really think that a small country fucking over the USA is 'called names' while it's only Russia that fucks you up? You're a bit prejudiced.

I do'nt think the US is going to tkae over your resources

[Chris1964]

By the way the elections went, Greece is letting Greece fail.

OK. For the record these were the first elections after decades Greeks reacted and didn't accept miserably the situation.

[poisonelf]

I do'nt think the US is going to tkae over your resources

You really want to get into a discussion of the US taking over resources of other countries...? :P

[Something Wicked]

You really want to get into a discussion of the US taking over resources of other countries...? :P

Yes, please explain to me how, in 2012, the US government has more control over Iraq's natural resources than Russia has over Belarus' and Ukraine's resources?

[poisonelf]

Yes, please explain to me how, in 2012, the US government has more control over Iraq's natural resources than Russia has over Belarus' and Ukraine's resources?

You don't understand, it's not a matter of comparison for me. You care about who's worse in grabbing and taking advantage of other countries' resources, and generally 'punishing' them for non-compliance.

I don't care about who's more brutal or efficient, I care about the fact that both do it to various extends. It's only about 2012, it's about the past few decades and 2012.

If you really want to go there, I don't remember Russia bombing Ukraine, millions of war refugees, hundreds of thousands dead, including lots of children, etc.

But still, to be honest, I'd prefer not paying the US to not paying Russia, I'll admit. Unless of course we are flung into this whole 'axis of evil' list for not paying and treated as such, in which case I'd prefer Cthulhu rising out of the Aegean.

By the way, to get back on track, no one is saying to not pay back the IMF. This is the one part of the debt (thankfully small) that everyone know we absolutely must pay back since there will be extreme repercussions.

The issue is auditing the debt with the presence of internationally acknowledged specialists, under international law, and finding the illegal parts of it, mostly bonds to banks and some of the interest rates the EU imposed, and not paying, or restructuring payments, of these.

[iKhayal18]

I seriously doubt that with the right-wing government that we have now in Spain they will go with Greece and abandon the Euro. This government is the same that took us to the Euro when Aznar was prime minister.

[LegendofJoe]

I'm sorry but the IMF=USA essentially, and you really think that a small country fucking over the USA is 'called names' while it's only Russia that fucks you up? You're a bit prejudiced.

Europe has more control over the IMF than the US does. I think you're confusing it with the World Bank.

[Something Wicked]

You don't understand, it's not a matter of comparison for me. You care about who's worse in grabbing and taking advantage of other countries' resources, and generally 'punishing' them for non-compliance. I don't care about who's more brutal or efficient, I care about the fact that both do it to various extends. It's only about 2012, it's about the past few decades and 2012. If you really want to go there, I don't remember Russia bombing Ukraine, millions of war refugees, hundreds of thousands dead, including lots of children, etc.

Yeah, the US bombs and replaces two of the most brutal regimes over the last few centuries and Russia bombs a democracy in Georgia, while specifically targeting civilians, and has virtually seized control of a formally and just recently free Ukrainian government... after nearly a century of enslaving both countries.

But no, please, take Putin's money and then, a few years later, try to explain to him why you can't pay him back.

[Evlar]

Yeah, the US bombs and replaces two of the most brutal regimes over the last few centuries and Russia bombs a democracy in Georgia, while specifically targeting civilians, and has virtually seized control of a formally and just recently free Ukrainian government... after nearly a century of enslaving both countries. But no, please, take Putin's money and then, a few years later, try to explain to him why you can't pay him back.

Ahh, you just reminded me of something.

[gofreak]

Some­where safe. Oth­er­wise you are going to lose half the value the day that the rest of the PIGS do a Greece.

I'm not sure we can assume that the other countries will do the same - at all. I cannot see Ireland voluntarily leaving the euro given everything it has done to 'play along'. And there's no mechanism for evicting a country from the euro, and even if there was, as it stands now, there'd certainly be no moral authority for evicting Ireland - certainly assuming the upcoming fiscal treaty referendum passes.

The simple fear that it could happen might lead people to depositing money abroad - but that's already been happening in Ireland since the banking crisis, and a large part of the bailing out of Ireland has to do with the buttressing of the banks against those flights of capital.

[poisonelf]

Yeah, the US bombs and replaces two of the most brutal regimes over the last few centuries and Russia bombs a democracy in Georgia, while specifically targeting civilians, and has virtually seized control of a formally and just recently free Ukrainian government... after nearly a century of enslaving both countries. But no, please, take Putin's money and then, a few years later, try to explain to him why you can't pay him back.

Russia and China are examples of alternative sources to borrow relatively small amounts until needed reforms are passed and Greek economy starts to stabilize (assuming we can put proper politicians in place instead of the scum we have now).

I'm not saying I prefer Russia or China as major patron/allies over the US or the EU (assuming current German leadership is soon replaced. I'd take Russia over Merkel's and Schauble's economic Reich). I already pointed that out.

As for the US replacing brutal regimes and fighting for democracy and freedom the world over, it's off topic, I won't go on.

[Lonely1]

They all just need to export more. The solution is so obvious. But no, it seems only the Germans get it.

So, this is the international version of Good ol' American bootstrapping...

[sflufan]

This is truly a golden opportunity for the BRICs (Brazil/Russia/India/China) to REALLY assert themselves and upstage the traditional Western powers by supporting Greece and any other nation in the European periphery who wants to leave the Eurozone and re-establish their own economic identity.

That would seal the transition of global power and influence.

[Sir Fragula]

<3 Nigel Farage

There's a first for everything.

[Tideas]

This is truly a golden opportunity for the BRICs (Brazil/Russia/India/China) to REALLY assert themselves and upstage the traditional Western powers by supporting Greece and any other nation in the European periphery who wants to leave the Eurozone and re-establish their own economic identity. That would seal the transition of global power and influence.

support Greece in what way? Give them money? Lol, they're too smart for that

[sflufan]

support Greece in what way? Give them money? Lol, they're too smart for that

Yes, provide loans to Greece, but there are valid political reasons for doing so, namely to develop an alternative to the American/European/World Bank/IMF hegemony.

[ElectricBlue187]

This is truly a golden opportunity for the BRICs (Brazil/Russia/India/China) to REALLY assert themselves and upstage the traditional Western powers by supporting Greece and any other nation in the European periphery who wants to leave the Eurozone and re-establish their own economic identity. That would seal the transition of global power and influence.

A few broke mediterranean countries does not make a global transition of power and influence