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Member
(05-14-2012, 05:59 PM)
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#301
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012...-in-guesswork/ |
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Member
(05-14-2012, 06:05 PM)
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#303
I understand your point about clarity of terms, but isn't bringing p hyperinflation kind of important right now? Youre advocating Withdrawing from the euro and servicing debt in sovereign currency, so discussing the possible fallout of that decision seems to me to be a good place for this discussion to go.
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Member
(05-14-2012, 06:09 PM)
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#304
I agree with you de los sapos, the EU needs to become more like the US. All eurozone members need to be required to pass mandates in their legislatures that require they balance their fiscal budgets. It is the only way the EMU will become a true currency union.
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Member
(05-14-2012, 06:11 PM)
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#305
Greece would benefit from lower inflation, fewer exchange rate fluctuations, lower interest rates, cheaper credit, the hard-nosed, trustworthy German and French central bankers guaranteeing the safety of their currency around the world, world reserve currency status. In theory there would be greater trading between Euro members meaning cheaper goods and greater prosperity. From what Ive seen in the years leading up to 2008 evidence suggested that many of these things had actually occurred but one of the fundamental laws in economics Ive learnt is that there is always an equal and opposite reaction and Greece are currently paying the price for that. |
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Member
(05-14-2012, 06:20 PM)
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#306
What will happen is that Greece will (hopefully) spend a lot of Drachmas to begin rescuing its pitiful economy (increasing aggregate demand). As a result of this spending, its currency will become devalued relative to other currencies. Because of its weak currency, Greek tourism will become very attractive and explode, putting a bottom under the fall in the price of its currency relative to other currencies. All the while, aggregate demand is being increased (instead of decreased as the Eurozone is requiring it to do). According to Mitchell, there are risks of inflation present, but nothing that cannot be prevented:
Quote:
Last edited by empty vessel; 05-14-2012 at 06:36 PM.
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Member
(05-14-2012, 07:14 PM)
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#308
Quote:
Quote:
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Member
(05-14-2012, 10:05 PM)
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#309
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Member
(05-14-2012, 10:17 PM)
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#310
Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of finance ministers of euro zone and prime minister of Luxemburg, about Greece leaving the Eurozone:
Originally Posted by Juncker:
Last edited by poisonelf; 05-14-2012 at 10:22 PM.
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I've done nothing with my life except eat and fap
(05-15-2012, 04:04 AM)
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#313
fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck
26 Italian banks downgraded as part of wider review of European banks
Originally Posted by Moody's:
Moody's report |
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Member
(05-15-2012, 04:38 AM)
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#314
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Member
(05-15-2012, 05:29 AM)
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#319
No but most of their debt is in domestic. Also their unemployment rate is less than 5%. On a whole they are better than the EU countries. Overall I' say their Yen strength hurts them more than anything.
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Member
(05-15-2012, 05:46 AM)
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#320
Wall Street is going to be ugly tomorrow. |
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Member
(05-15-2012, 05:55 AM)
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#324
Japan has had a decrease in the 15 and under population for 32 years and counting. That is TERRIBLE. |
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Member
(05-15-2012, 06:11 AM)
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#325
One reason why I dont really see China eclipsing America as 'the' superpower. Their demographic issues are going to fuck them over hardcore
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Banned
(05-15-2012, 07:13 AM)
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#326
The Euro is like a testament to how looney neo-liberal economics can get. Have multiple nations under one currency without centralizing them all? What...the...fuck? Its like some Ron Paul shit. Its up there with the gold standard.
And they'll still be three times bigger than the U.S. |
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Member
(05-15-2012, 07:15 AM)
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#327
having worthless paper be backed by something of intrinsic value is looney? slap yourself.
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For a Finer World
(05-15-2012, 07:24 AM)
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#328
I know it doesn't fit the doom and gloom scenario but German economy looks pretty healthy; Greece is still a blip on Eurozone scale and I'm confident there's enough firewall to prevent contagion to I,P,S.
Greece will adopt a presidentially appointed government and go full austerity though. |
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Banned
(05-15-2012, 07:33 AM)
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#329
Yes having paper of such value that millions of people depend on for their lives resting on an experiment with multiple nations spending and manipulating the currency with hardly any oversight or direction is looney.
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lacks enthusiasm.
(05-15-2012, 07:50 AM)
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#333
Because it's a scarce material, it would limit the money supply available to an economy as production capacity (and population) grows over time. Also gives an unfair advantage to those countries that produce gold or have large reserves of it.
There's a lot of good, thorough information on why the gold standard is a bad idea. I'd suggest a simple Google search if you'd like to know more (from both sides I guess). |
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smells clean, brushes teeth. Also combs hair regularly.
(05-15-2012, 07:52 AM)
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#334
Like paper currency, gold only has worth because people say it has worth. It's just a shiny rock. Say the world economy collapses. Would you prefer having a pile of paper you can burn for heat....or gold? Have fun eating that, using it for shelter, or really, giving it any use. If you want a currency based on something of value, adopt the cow as your currency of choice. In an apocolyptic future, have fun trying to trade a gold bar for a cow. One has value, one doesnt. |
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Junior Member
(05-15-2012, 07:52 AM)
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#335
Greeks have been stealing from their own government like there's no tomorrow. And the politicians have not stood up against this because then they would not be re-elected.
You could travel around in Greece for weeks without seeing a single receipt because no hotel or resto ever pay proper tax or VAT. Cheating taxes and benefits is like a national sport. So the government in fear of the mob chooses to steal from the EU instead by lying and faking reports. I'm from Norway and even still rolling in oil money we pay taxes like crazy. If the greeks feel its impossible to make a living with current tax level, lower the but go hardcore on collecting. Its the nations attitude that needs to change. |
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Member
(05-15-2012, 07:55 AM)
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#336
Personally I believe the turn to drachma is inevitable, but I don't believe it will happen as soon. These past two years everything played out exactly as Germany and France wanted, struggling smaller countries so their banks can be shielded. So there is no reason for me to believe that Greece will be forced out of the euro now, since it will still cause loses of hundreds of billions, up to 2 trillion, to the EU. The powers that be don't care about Greece obviously, but why should they risk immense loses? I think it's going to take 1-2 more years and then, once Germany has drained all possible gains from being in the euro, Germany along with other northern countries will be the ones to leave the euro and break up the euro zone first. That's just a scenario I've thought up of course and I could be utterly wrong. |
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Member
(05-15-2012, 08:08 AM)
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#337
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...96&postcount=1 If you want I can provide more information. What you say is partly true, but as difficult as it is for someone from a functioning country to realize and accept, what you describe is essentially a defense mechanism that is forced upon small businesses so they can hope to survive. A small business in Greece pays more than 10-12 different taxes, up to 20 if you dare own property, before even coming to VAT. It's a schizophrenic system relying on laws that are decades old, on the fact that the government assumes you will steal anyway and so steals you back even if you try to be 100% legal, on the fact that public officials want to always have the leisure to fine you or even close you down if needed.... Ask any small-business owner and 9 out of 10 will tell you that the government is the official mafia in Greece. Another issue that is hard for someone from a country like Norway to realize, is how here in Greece you feel that each and every penny you pay to the government goes to villas, yachts, luxury travels of politicians and high ranking public officials, as well as their accounts in Switzerland or off-shore countries. When I say every penny I'm not being literal of course, but there exists corruption to such an extent that people are at a sorts of war against the government. It's not like you know that your taxes will go for better roads, hospitals, education, etc. One of the things that pretty much everyone asks for is a reform of the taxation system. If it becomes a sane, normal system where there are a few logical taxes most people agree that there should also be harsh punishments such as confiscation of property or jail time. I do agree that the nation's attitude needs to change. But I feel such a change must start from those who set the rules of the game, that the government must provide a sense of justice and protection for its citizens, show it cares for Greece and not a few families serving outside interests. Go through the post I linked.
Last edited by poisonelf; 05-15-2012 at 08:12 AM.
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Member
(05-15-2012, 08:36 AM)
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#338
People with savings already put lots of money outside Greece. And the decision isn't made yet. But yeah, all the savings in Greece are going to crumble. My family knows what this means (Vietnam in the late 70s).
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Junior Member
(05-15-2012, 08:41 AM)
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#339
As you point out the whole tax system needs a total rewrite but do not think that other countries have easier rules. In Norway we have stupid laws and taxes as well..
up to 18% employer tax, means if you pay a worker 100k euro a year the business has to pay 18k euro a year in tax..f crazy. Oh and 2-3k euro a year for extra pension for the worker. If the store is bigger than 150sqm you can not sell goods on a Sunday except if you trade garden stuff.. wtf.. A worker can be sick 24 days (that's 10% of total work days) a year without doctors note and still collect 100% pay. Filling out taxes in Norway is a months work if you want to do i proper because of all the rules, so most ppl dont bother and end up paying more tax than needed (me included). Every country is fucked up but the greeks should stop making all kind of excuses. Nobody else than them got them into this mess. Greeks politicians are still greeks voted into position by fellow greeks. Who forced Greece to make all those loans? Its like a person without sens of finance buying stuff on credit and when he can't pay he blames the people giving him money. |
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For a Finer World
(05-15-2012, 08:56 AM)
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#340
To be honest you can't just blame the Greeks; the personal loan analogy fails here. For EU's internal market to function, it's important to have the south purchase goods from the north. It didn't play out well, but that was the goal for the eurozone...
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Member
(05-15-2012, 09:13 AM)
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#341
At this point there are no more large bank runs because many people either don't believe anything anymore or are too tired to care. For two years the EU, the IMF, our media and our politicians have been bombarding us hourly with how everything is going to crumble any day now, how there will be no money to buy food, how our lives depend on the next TROIKA payment which is not ensured and we may be plunged into chaos the next day unless we accept more cuts, more unemployment, more taxes, etc.... If you also take into account the fact that when sometimes payments were not made because of negotiations failing, nothing happened and money turned up for salaries and everything, many people just don't believe anything anymore, even though this time the propaganda and terror mongering might actually be closer to the truth.
I don't know much about Norwegian taxes, but you also have to take into account some other vast differences. In Norway, as far as I know, you may pay lots of taxes (which I still doubt are as many and 'hidden' as non- taxes as in Greece), but you know that all that money is used for your society. Those very same welfare privileges you describe are available in various forms to everyone, you have almost 50,000 euro 'stashed' for each Norwegian for fuck's sake from oil earnings. I was in Norway a few months ago (I really liked it and everyone was super polite. The countryside felt like I imagined Cimmeria :p), and everything is extremely expensive by Greek standards. Having gajillion level salaries allows for gajillion level prices, and I'm pretty sure that businesses can afford some forms of high taxation, especially since they know that the money they pay are going towards improving their own society and country. Did you go through the post I linked to? At this point taxes for property are at such levels that it's an indirect way of confiscating property from everyone but the very well off, and business taxes are such that there have been tens of thousands of businesses closing down the past two years. Streets that used to be trade hot spots are now like ghost towns. That's not normal as you realize. Also, when I was in Norway people would talk about joining the EU or not. If you want my opinion, DON'T. I'm sorry to say but the leaderships of the EU are essentially colonialists, and trust me, oil is what they hear when you say Norway. |
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Member
(05-15-2012, 09:18 AM)
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#342
Be it the Govt selling cuts, the opposition trying to scare everyone to vote for them or the media trying to sell papers / viewer-ship, there is a huge amount of the "boy who cried wolf" going on since 2008. We have had nothing but doom-merchanting for so long that people just don't listen now, which is probably for the best as public sentiment is important and if people don't panic things won't fall apart. |
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Sales-Age Genius
(05-15-2012, 09:31 AM)
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#343
I'm tired of every expert who knows everything for the reason Greece got here because he came for vacation one summer. Majority of local population can't afford to go 1 week holidays in its own country.
Last edited by Chris1964; 05-15-2012 at 09:34 AM.
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Member
(05-15-2012, 09:39 AM)
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#344
Watch this piece by al jazeera that aired a few days ago: http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/...636694496.html It's about the immense corruption of Greek media. Each and every mainstream TV channel and reporter are paid by the same centers of power that control Greece, be it political parties or European bankers and officials. A single channel that was speaking against the brutality of riot police and the scandals of our politicians (even though they were no saints either, I have no idea whose interests they were serving), was shut down by Papandreou under pretenses of owing debts, when all channels here owe the same amount. I don't think the shock doctrine has ever been more thoroughly and brutally implemented in a country before. |
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Member
(05-15-2012, 09:43 AM)
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#345
That's all kinds of fucked up. |
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Member
(05-15-2012, 10:43 AM)
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#346
Well it sound like the system is broken. Why don't you guys have a revolution? |
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My Contribution
(05-15-2012, 10:50 AM)
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#347
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Member
(05-15-2012, 01:02 PM)
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#350
Japan's doing fine. If anything, it doesn't spend enough.
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=6090
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